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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
No ending date, set to: default date 12 31
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2020 FOGO Agrimet FOREST GROVE OR Lat45.5531 Long:-123.0833 Elev:180
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 52.90 40.90 0.10 5.90 5.9 * START *
1 2 49.50 40.20 0.04 3.95 9.9
1 3 54.70 43.20 0.12 7.95 17.8
1 4 46.90 38.30 0.08 2.26 20.1
1 5 47.20 41.70 0.22 3.45 23.5
1 6 49.40 42.80 0.79 5.10 28.6
1 7 52.00 45.40 0.36 7.70 36.3
1 8 45.40 34.80 0.04 1.26 37.6
1 9 38.70 28.80 0.01 0.00 37.6
1 10 47.30 38.80 0.63 2.54 40.1
1 11 46.50 39.40 0.39 2.28 42.4
1 12 46.00 36.70 0.63 1.66 44.1
1 13 39.40 35.90 0.08 0.00 44.1
1 14 38.10 31.90 0.04 0.00 44.1
1 15 42.20 28.70 0.17 0.15 44.2
1 16 42.00 30.60 0.07 0.13 44.3
1 17 40.50 31.70 0.22 0.00 44.3
1 18 48.80 39.50 0.38 3.41 47.7
1 19 53.20 43.30 0.14 7.25 55.0
1 20 47.50 39.40 0.00 2.76 57.8
1 21 47.70 40.90 0.46 3.31 61.1
1 22 50.00 43.20 0.26 5.60 66.7
1 23 53.50 50.00 0.47 10.75 77.4
1 24 53.80 46.40 0.21 9.10 86.5
1 25 54.60 46.40 0.27 9.50 96.0
1 26 54.20 45.00 0.29 8.60 104.6
1 27 51.30 42.60 1.42 5.95 110.6
1 28 51.70 46.10 0.85 7.90 118.5
1 29 48.50 45.60 0.36 6.05 124.5
1 30 51.50 45.00 0.10 7.25 131.8
1 31 59.30 51.10 0.01 14.20 146.0
2 1 55.60 38.10 0.07 6.36 152.3
2 2 44.00 30.20 0.01 0.61 152.9
2 3 46.50 29.90 0.02 1.39 154.3
2 4 40.50 27.30 0.00 0.00 154.3
2 5 50.10 39.00 0.12 3.92 158.2
2 6 57.40 48.30 0.00 11.85 170.1
2 7 55.90 44.80 0.08 9.35 179.4
2 8 47.70 35.70 0.16 2.27 181.7
2 9 47.10 28.40 0.01 1.53 183.2
2 10 52.70 29.20 0.00 3.72 187.0
2 11 40.90 31.40 0.00 0.00 187.0
2 12 51.50 33.40 0.01 3.64 190.6
2 13 43.60 30.10 0.06 0.49 191.1
2 14 49.70 34.10 0.02 2.95 194.0
2 15 45.30 41.40 0.34 2.35 196.4
2 16 50.10 34.40 0.03 3.16 199.6
2 17 48.00 31.50 0.01 2.03 201.6
2 18 50.70 28.80 0.01 2.88 204.5
2 19 54.00 29.40 0.00 4.27 208.7
2 20 56.40 30.30 0.00 5.40 214.1
2 21 57.20 27.90 0.00 5.46 219.6
2 22 53.60 29.10 0.00 4.08 223.7
2 23 49.70 40.20 0.18 4.05 227.7
2 24 49.90 35.70 0.01 3.23 231.0
2 25 53.10 29.60 0.01 3.92 234.9
2 26 55.00 40.20 0.00 6.68 241.6
2 27 63.20 30.60 0.00 8.48 250.0
2 28 57.40 31.30 0.03 5.97 256.0
2 29 47.10 32.10 0.37 1.73 257.7
3 1 48.90 30.30 0.00 2.29 260.0
3 2 48.90 39.70 0.01 3.51 263.5
3 3 59.70 38.60 0.00 8.50 272.0
3 4 54.30 39.20 0.00 6.02 278.0
3 5 58.00 31.60 0.00 6.28 284.3
3 6 48.20 40.60 0.20 3.44 287.8
3 7 46.90 32.70 0.06 1.69 289.5
3 8 49.10 31.30 0.00 2.44 291.9
3 9 55.30 27.10 0.00 4.59 296.5
3 10 59.50 29.40 0.00 6.64 303.1
3 11 55.00 38.00 0.00 6.04 309.2
3 12 54.50 29.60 0.00 4.50 313.7
3 13 40.90 35.60 0.07 0.00 313.7
3 14 39.30 32.60 0.37 0.00 313.7
3 15 45.00 33.30 0.00 1.03 314.7
3 16 59.20 29.50 0.00 6.52 321.2
3 17 60.50 28.80 0.00 7.00 328.2
3 18 58.40 31.20 0.00 6.40 334.6
3 19 62.20 31.30 0.00 8.14 342.8
3 20 66.10 35.70 0.00 10.86 353.6
3 21 61.10 37.40 0.00 8.85 362.5
3 22 61.80 31.70 0.00 8.02 370.5
3 23 52.30 41.20 0.04 5.75 376.3
3 24 48.90 39.50 0.13 3.46 379.7
3 25 51.30 34.50 0.02 3.69 383.4
3 26 50.80 28.10 0.02 2.87 386.3
3 27 48.90 40.50 0.06 3.75 390.0
3 28 52.90 45.80 0.06 8.35 398.4
3 29 56.70 45.50 0.25 10.10 408.5
3 30 50.20 42.00 0.43 5.10 413.6
3 31 52.60 38.80 0.12 5.08 418.7
4 1 49.10 37.90 0.11 3.21 421.9
4 2 49.90 33.70 0.05 2.99 424.9
4 3 48.90 29.90 0.01 2.27 427.1
4 4 51.30 34.90 0.08 3.75 430.9
4 5 61.00 41.00 0.01 10.00 440.9
4 6 62.40 39.30 0.00 10.05 450.9
4 7 60.90 36.10 0.00 8.44 459.4
4 8 72.20 37.40 0.00 14.30 473.7
4 9 74.10 43.30 0.00 17.70 491.4
4 10 69.30 42.00 0.00 14.65 506.0
4 11 60.90 38.50 0.00 9.06 515.1
4 12 64.50 36.30 0.00 10.23 525.3
4 13 65.80 34.40 0.00 10.41 535.7
4 14 68.90 31.60 0.00 11.31 547.0
4 15 66.00 41.50 0.00 12.75 559.8
4 16 67.00 38.50 0.00 12.07 571.8
4 17 76.30 34.30 0.00 15.45 587.3
4 18 54.20 46.10 0.11 9.15 596.4
4 19 60.70 41.40 0.00 10.05 606.5
4 20 70.10 35.20 0.00 12.67 619.2
4 21 60.10 43.80 0.00 10.95 630.1
4 22 59.30 46.50 0.15 11.90 642.0
4 23 59.80 44.50 0.00 11.15 653.2
4 24 62.40 48.50 0.08 14.45 667.6
4 25 65.60 45.20 0.19 14.40 682.0
4 26 63.30 35.30 0.04 9.42 691.4
4 27 65.40 48.10 0.02 15.75 707.2
4 28 68.90 40.40 0.00 13.69 720.9
4 29 73.60 50.50 0.00 21.05 741.9
4 30 65.20 44.50 0.00 13.85 755.8
5 1 62.00 35.60 0.02 8.86 764.6
5 2 58.60 44.70 0.35 10.65 775.3
5 3 58.50 42.70 0.13 9.60 784.9
5 4 66.30 35.50 0.12 10.90 795.8
5 5 71.00 46.70 0.02 17.85 813.6
5 6 62.80 44.00 0.04 12.40 826.0
5 7 71.10 38.50 0.00 14.10 840.1
5 8 77.20 46.50 0.00 20.85 861.0 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 9 82.90 52.20 0.00 26.55 887.5
5 10 83.30 53.30 0.00 27.30 914.8
5 11 66.80 48.50 0.06 16.65 931.5
5 12 59.80 47.10 0.08 12.45 943.9
5 13 61.30 48.80 0.24 14.05 958.0 Peak female adult emergence
5 14 56.60 49.90 0.28 12.25 970.2
5 15 65.60 49.10 0.01 16.35 986.6
5 16 64.50 51.60 0.20 17.05 1003.6 Peak egg laying
5 17 64.80 48.10 0.00 15.45 1019.1
5 18 59.20 50.00 0.26 13.60 1032.7
5 19 63.40 47.80 0.00 14.60 1047.3
5 20 61.50 48.20 0.01 13.85 1061.1
5 21 59.80 46.80 0.01 12.30 1073.4
5 22 62.30 41.60 0.03 10.95 1084.4
5 23 61.20 40.10 0.00 9.73 1094.1
5 24 74.60 46.20 0.00 19.40 1113.5
5 25 66.40 49.90 0.03 17.15 1130.6
5 26 72.10 56.10 0.00 23.10 1153.7
5 27 83.90 47.70 0.00 24.80 1178.5
5 28 91.10 54.50 0.00 31.80 1210.3
5 29 82.80 59.90 0.00 30.35 1240.7
5 30 61.80 51.70 0.20 15.75 1256.4
5 31 63.40 49.50 0.00 15.45 1271.9 Peak egg hatch
6 1 70.60 42.20 0.00 15.40 1287.3
6 2 78.40 45.10 0.00 20.75 1308.0
6 3 73.60 50.90 0.00 21.25 1329.3
6 4 71.40 52.00 0.00 20.70 1350.0
6 5 68.60 52.40 0.05 19.50 1369.5
6 6 62.70 46.60 0.11 13.65 1383.1
6 7 61.90 45.50 0.06 12.70 1395.8
6 8 62.20 50.30 0.17 15.25 1411.1
6 9 64.30 48.40 0.27 15.35 1426.4
6 10 76.90 56.70 0.01 25.80 1452.2
6 11 74.80 55.50 0.01 24.15 1476.4
6 12 60.20 52.50 0.21 15.35 1491.7
6 13 61.40 47.70 0.32 13.55 1505.3
6 14 68.00 46.20 0.02 16.10 1521.4
6 15 63.40 53.60 0.30 17.50 1538.9
6 16 65.70 51.10 0.28 17.40 1556.3
6 17 72.70 48.70 0.01 19.70 1576.0
6 18 80.40 51.10 0.00 24.75 1600.7
6 19 85.90 52.00 0.00 27.95 1628.7
6 20 70.30 56.60 0.11 22.45 1651.1
6 21 74.70 52.60 0.00 22.65 1673.8
6 22 86.90 50.50 0.00 27.70 1701.5
6 23 92.20 57.90 0.00 34.05 1735.5
6 24 78.50 58.10 0.00 27.30 1762.8
6 25 83.20 52.80 0.00 27.00 1789.8
6 26 85.50 57.90 0.00 30.70 1820.5
6 27 68.40 54.10 0.00 20.25 1840.8
6 28 70.40 53.10 0.00 20.75 1861.5
6 29 76.10 48.00 0.00 21.05 1882.6
6 30 70.10 55.60 0.00 21.85 1904.4
7 1 66.50 54.60 0.02 19.55 1924.0
7 2 70.00 53.30 0.00 20.65 1944.6
7 3 70.80 52.00 0.00 20.40 1965.0
7 4 71.50 56.40 0.00 22.95 1988.0
7 5 74.00 53.00 0.00 22.50 2010.5
7 6 67.10 52.30 0.00 18.70 2029.2
7 7 72.10 55.20 0.00 22.65 2051.8
7 8 74.90 49.20 0.00 21.05 2072.9 Peak in density large larvae
7 9 74.30 54.50 0.00 23.40 2096.3
7 10 79.80 55.00 0.00 26.40 2122.7
7 11 77.00 51.50 0.00 23.25 2145.9
7 12 76.40 56.60 0.00 25.50 2171.4
7 13 80.20 49.90 0.00 24.05 2195.5
7 14 85.00 52.80 0.00 27.90 2223.4
7 15 87.70 59.10 0.00 32.40 2255.8
7 16 87.00 59.50 0.00 32.25 2288.0 Px
7 17 71.60 58.90 0.00 24.25 2312.3 Px Pn
7 18 84.50 48.30 0.00 25.40 2337.7 Px Pn
7 19 91.20 58.40 0.00 33.80 2371.5 Px Pn
7 20 95.60 57.60 0.00 35.60 2407.1 Px Pn
7 21 89.50 57.00 0.00 32.25 2439.3 Px Pn
7 22 88.20 55.60 0.00 30.90 2470.2 Px Pn
7 23 77.60 54.10 0.00 24.85 2495.1
7 24 69.40 56.20 0.00 21.80 2516.9
7 25 81.90 50.70 0.00 25.30 2542.2
7 26 98.80 53.80 0.00 35.30 2577.5
7 27 98.30 59.00 0.00 37.65 2615.1
7 28 89.20 63.30 0.00 35.25 2650.4
7 29 95.10 56.10 0.00 34.60 2685.0
7 30 96.90 59.10 0.00 37.00 2722.0
7 31 87.90 60.70 0.00 33.30 2755.3
8 1 82.50 56.60 0.00 28.55 2783.8
8 2 86.10 57.00 0.00 30.55 2814.4
8 3 84.30 54.00 0.00 28.15 2842.5
8 4 86.90 58.60 0.00 31.75 2874.3
8 5 84.60 60.10 0.00 31.35 2905.6
8 6 73.10 52.50 0.07 21.80 2927.4
8 7 78.70 47.30 0.00 22.00 2949.4
8 8 76.60 58.80 0.00 26.70 2976.1
8 9 82.80 54.40 0.00 27.60 3003.7
8 10 90.60 61.90 0.00 35.25 3039.0
8 11 79.80 48.80 0.00 23.30 3062.3
8 12 71.90 53.70 0.00 21.80 3084.1
8 13 78.60 48.80 0.00 22.70 3106.8
8 14 87.70 52.10 0.00 28.90 3135.7
8 15 100.90 63.30 0.00 41.10 3176.8
8 16 94.70 60.00 0.00 36.35 3213.1
8 17 93.60 62.40 0.00 37.00 3250.1
8 18 84.60 61.60 0.00 32.10 3282.2
8 19 87.50 55.20 0.00 30.35 3312.6
8 20 82.20 59.00 0.01 29.60 3342.2
8 21 75.40 60.50 0.01 26.95 3369.1
8 22 78.20 50.90 0.00 23.55 3392.7
8 23 83.50 53.20 0.00 27.35 3420.0
8 24 80.40 55.60 0.00 27.00 3447.0
8 25 81.20 52.20 0.00 25.70 3472.7
8 26 82.20 54.30 0.00 27.25 3500.0
8 27 83.30 52.50 0.00 26.90 3526.9
8 28 85.30 53.90 0.00 28.60 3555.5
8 29 75.70 55.40 0.00 24.55 3580.0
8 30 77.90 43.00 0.00 19.45 3599.5
8 31 76.00 57.60 0.00 25.80 3625.3
9 1 89.40 57.20 0.00 32.30 3657.6
9 2 92.00 56.50 0.00 33.25 3690.8
9 3 98.20 58.60 0.00 37.40 3728.2
9 4 87.20 58.10 0.00 31.65 3759.9
9 5 78.30 57.70 0.00 27.00 3786.9
9 6 90.20 54.80 0.00 31.50 3818.4
9 7 89.50 56.40 0.00 31.95 3850.3
9 8 81.00 63.80 0.00 31.40 3881.7
9 9 88.70 61.40 0.00 34.05 3915.8
9 10 76.10 58.20 0.00 26.15 3941.9
9 11 67.60 49.00 0.00 17.30 3959.2
9 12 66.70 44.80 0.00 14.75 3974.0
9 13 68.50 43.90 0.00 15.20 3989.2
9 14 73.00 49.50 0.00 20.25 4009.4
9 15 78.70 55.00 0.00 25.85 4035.3
9 16 73.00 52.50 0.00 21.75 4057.0
9 17 76.90 54.00 0.02 24.45 4081.5
9 18 67.30 60.00 1.21 22.65 4104.1
9 19 69.70 56.60 0.08 22.15 4126.3
9 20 73.70 54.20 0.00 22.95 4149.2
9 21 73.30 52.30 0.00 21.80 4171.0
9 22 72.40 58.90 0.00 24.65 4195.7
9 23 66.60 56.70 0.63 20.65 4216.3
9 24 71.60 54.30 0.02 21.95 4238.3
9 25 64.90 55.30 0.79 19.10 4257.4
9 26 68.90 52.20 0.04 19.55 4276.9
9 27 73.00 47.90 0.00 19.45 4296.4
9 28 85.10 51.00 0.00 27.05 4323.4
9 29 85.00 51.20 0.00 27.10 4350.5
9 30 82.60 49.90 0.00 25.25 4375.8
10 1 79.80 49.70 0.00 23.75 4399.5
10 2 81.30 47.30 0.00 23.30 4422.8
10 3 78.30 49.40 0.00 22.85 4445.7
10 4 71.80 55.20 0.00 22.50 4468.2
10 5 75.70 53.20 0.00 23.45 4491.6
10 6 83.20 48.80 0.00 25.00 4516.6
10 7 75.30 49.90 0.01 21.60 4538.2
10 8 64.10 55.60 0.00 18.85 4557.1
10 9 71.80 56.10 0.03 22.95 4580.0
10 10 63.50 52.50 0.68 17.00 4597.0
10 11 60.50 51.10 0.54 14.80 4611.8
10 12 63.80 53.60 0.06 17.70 4629.5
10 13 64.20 51.50 0.32 16.85 4646.4
10 14 64.80 45.30 0.05 14.05 4660.4
10 15 64.60 38.60 0.00 10.91 4671.4
10 16 69.20 42.20 0.00 14.70 4686.1
10 17 68.00 49.50 0.00 17.75 4703.8
10 18 69.70 54.00 0.00 20.85 4724.7
10 19 64.10 50.10 0.00 16.10 4740.8
10 20 64.40 47.60 0.00 15.00 4755.8
10 21 57.30 38.00 0.00 7.16 4762.9
10 22 57.70 31.30 0.01 6.10 4769.0
10 23 55.60 33.50 0.00 5.48 4774.5
10 24 50.70 41.80 0.00 5.25 4779.7
10 25 46.90 29.40 0.00 1.51 4781.3
10 26 57.00 26.50 0.00 5.23 4786.5
10 27 60.10 29.30 0.00 6.89 4793.4
10 28 68.90 33.20 0.00 11.63 4805.0
10 29 65.50 38.70 0.02 11.39 4816.4
10 30 61.20 40.10 0.03 9.73 4826.1
10 31 61.50 32.80 0.00 8.07 4834.2
11 1 67.30 35.40 0.00 11.36 4845.6
11 2 65.50 31.80 0.00 9.75 4855.3
11 3 52.10 36.70 0.31 4.39 4859.7
11 4 66.50 51.60 0.01 18.05 4877.8
11 5 62.00 48.50 0.74 14.25 4892.0
11 6 49.40 42.00 0.30 4.70 4896.7
11 7 49.30 31.40 0.01 2.53 4899.2
11 8 48.30 29.90 0.00 2.04 4901.3
11 9 40.70 26.90 0.02 0.00 4901.3
11 10 50.60 39.10 0.20 4.18 4905.5
11 11 46.00 35.70 0.01 1.56 4907.0
11 12 45.60 33.60 0.13 1.26 4908.3
11 13 52.80 40.20 1.51 5.59 4913.9
11 14 48.00 36.80 1.02 2.54 4916.4
11 15 55.70 45.10 0.04 9.40 4925.8
11 16 50.50 44.20 0.22 6.35 4932.2
11 17 56.80 41.50 0.29 8.15 4940.3
11 18 48.10 43.90 0.78 5.00 4945.3
11 19 50.50 41.40 0.15 4.95 4950.3
11 20 46.20 38.00 0.00 1.90 4952.2
11 21 39.20 33.30 0.01 0.00 4952.2
11 22 39.00 32.20 0.09 0.00 4952.2
11 23 51.20 39.00 0.04 4.45 4956.6
11 24 47.90 42.40 0.16 4.15 4960.8
11 25 48.70 37.00 0.03 2.88 4963.6
11 26 47.40 40.00 0.01 2.86 4966.5
11 27 48.80 39.20 0.00 3.34 4969.8
11 28 43.60 37.80 0.06 0.78 4970.6
11 29 51.70 33.90 0.00 3.79 4974.4
11 30 51.90 33.20 0.38 3.79 4978.2
12 1 49.00 28.70 0.01 2.23 4980.4
12 2 53.50 35.20 0.00 4.78 4985.2
12 3 47.80 31.10 0.00 1.93 4987.1
12 4 54.90 30.10 0.00 4.73 4991.9
12 5 54.00 31.50 0.01 4.50 4996.4
12 6 45.90 39.70 0.04 2.06 4998.4
12 7 48.10 36.80 0.00 2.58 5001.0
12 8 52.90 36.30 0.15 4.69 5005.7
12 9 49.90 35.80 0.03 3.25 5009.0
12 10 41.40 34.50 0.07 0.04 5009.0
12 11 41.10 36.20 0.43 0.01 5009.0
12 12 44.20 29.80 0.01 0.66 5009.7
12 13 42.60 37.90 0.45 0.41 5010.1
12 14 44.80 39.50 0.00 1.50 5011.6
12 15 48.00 40.20 0.09 3.21 5014.8 Px
12 16 49.20 44.30 0.64 5.75 5020.5
12 17 51.00 39.40 0.05 4.46 5025.0
12 18 49.10 39.80 0.32 3.64 5028.6
12 19 52.70 44.40 0.70 7.55 5036.2
12 20 53.30 45.80 1.47 8.55 5044.7
12 21 57.80 41.50 0.36 8.65 5053.4
12 22 48.30 33.10 0.05 2.27 5055.6
12 23 47.40 29.10 0.01 1.67 5057.3
12 24 45.00 27.30 0.00 0.83 5058.1
12 25 45.30 31.70 0.82 1.06 5059.2
12 26 50.10 42.70 0.07 5.40 5064.6
12 27 50.60 35.10 0.01 3.46 5068.1
12 28 48.20 29.10 0.01 1.96 5070.0
12 29 36.10 29.00 0.06 0.00 5070.0
12 30 46.50 35.60 0.72 1.76 5071.8
12 31 51.40 46.70 0.00 8.05 5079.8 Vx Vn
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 FOGO PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2020 FOGO FOREST GROVE OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-8-20 | 861 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-13-20 | 958 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-16-20 | 1004 | Peak egg laying |
| 5-31-20 | 1272 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-8-20 | 2073 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?3985232)
