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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
No ending date, set to: default date 12 31
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2019 FOGO Agrimet FOREST GROVE OR Lat45.5531 Long:-123.0833 Elev:180
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 42.20 27.50 0.01 0.15 0.1 * START *
1 2 41.20 28.50 0.00 0.01 0.2
1 3 52.30 39.20 0.04 5.04 5.2
1 4 50.50 43.20 0.11 5.85 11.0
1 5 49.50 35.70 0.06 3.06 14.1
1 6 45.80 37.70 0.27 1.69 15.8
1 7 40.30 33.00 0.02 0.00 15.8
1 8 47.20 39.30 0.42 2.59 18.4
1 9 50.90 39.00 0.48 4.30 22.7
1 10 54.50 45.00 0.08 8.75 31.4
1 11 50.80 38.60 0.01 4.16 35.6
1 12 53.50 31.70 0.00 4.31 39.9
1 13 51.90 31.20 0.00 3.57 43.5
1 14 47.40 28.40 0.01 1.64 45.1
1 15 42.10 28.20 0.00 0.13 45.2
1 16 44.20 31.50 0.18 0.70 45.9
1 17 52.10 37.70 0.43 4.59 50.5
1 18 45.00 40.80 1.21 1.92 52.4
1 19 52.40 42.70 0.01 6.55 59.0
1 20 45.40 39.70 0.31 1.82 60.8
1 21 48.40 33.80 0.01 2.37 63.2
1 22 46.50 39.70 0.18 2.35 65.5
1 23 55.60 42.30 0.02 7.95 73.5
1 24 51.30 37.90 0.00 4.25 77.7
1 25 49.00 31.20 0.00 2.40 80.1
1 26 45.70 28.70 0.01 1.08 81.2
1 27 38.90 36.10 0.01 0.00 81.2
1 28 55.50 35.30 0.00 5.72 86.9
1 29 53.80 30.10 0.00 4.26 91.2
1 30 52.50 28.80 0.01 3.60 94.8
1 31 50.90 28.80 0.00 2.96 97.8
2 1 47.20 35.60 0.21 2.05 99.8
2 2 52.20 44.10 0.00 7.15 107.0
2 3 45.10 37.30 0.01 1.34 108.3
2 4 38.70 30.20 0.11 0.00 108.3
2 5 37.30 27.50 0.00 0.00 108.3
2 6 38.70 24.00 0.00 0.00 108.3
2 7 38.50 23.00 0.00 0.00 108.3
2 8 38.20 28.50 0.18 0.00 108.3
2 9 36.50 29.60 0.14 0.00 108.3
2 10 37.00 24.50 0.28 0.00 108.3
2 11 45.00 34.50 1.29 1.09 109.4
2 12 40.80 37.20 2.68 0.00 109.4
2 13 44.80 36.60 0.04 1.16 110.6
2 14 42.30 37.30 0.27 0.29 110.8
2 15 45.60 38.60 0.27 1.72 112.6
2 16 44.20 36.00 0.04 0.89 113.5
2 17 43.40 30.90 0.00 0.46 113.9
2 18 43.40 27.30 0.01 0.40 114.3
2 19 45.00 36.00 0.08 1.19 115.5
2 20 45.50 33.20 0.22 1.20 116.7
2 21 47.30 30.20 0.00 1.69 118.4
2 22 43.30 29.50 0.15 0.41 118.8
2 23 45.60 35.10 0.16 1.36 120.2
2 24 42.80 35.10 0.41 0.38 120.5
2 25 36.50 30.70 0.13 0.00 120.5
2 26 38.20 29.60 0.00 0.00 120.5
2 27 35.20 27.10 0.03 0.00 120.5
2 28 40.50 32.00 0.02 0.00 120.5
3 1 50.80 33.60 0.02 3.36 123.9
3 2 49.00 26.90 0.00 2.13 126.0
3 3 41.70 26.80 0.00 0.06 126.1
3 4 42.00 22.30 0.00 0.10 126.2
3 5 43.50 21.90 0.00 0.37 126.6
3 6 36.90 29.20 0.10 0.00 126.6
3 7 45.60 33.60 0.09 1.26 127.8
3 8 40.50 30.20 0.20 0.00 127.8
3 9 47.80 32.90 0.00 2.06 129.9
3 10 51.60 28.30 0.00 3.20 133.1
3 11 55.00 26.60 0.10 4.42 137.5
3 12 50.40 36.80 0.22 3.62 141.1
3 13 54.00 33.30 0.01 4.73 145.8
3 14 56.20 33.40 0.00 5.73 151.6
3 15 62.40 35.70 0.00 9.07 160.6
3 16 60.80 34.60 0.00 8.08 168.7
3 17 68.30 32.90 0.00 11.28 180.0
3 18 68.10 37.30 0.00 12.25 192.3
3 19 71.30 39.10 0.00 14.40 206.7
3 20 73.40 40.90 0.00 16.15 222.8
3 21 57.50 44.80 0.06 10.15 233.0
3 22 52.80 41.70 0.07 6.25 239.2
3 23 58.30 40.50 0.00 8.44 247.6
3 24 59.80 36.30 0.01 7.96 255.6
3 25 51.20 38.10 0.09 4.24 259.8
3 26 58.60 35.40 0.00 7.20 267.0
3 27 54.80 38.90 0.22 6.18 273.2
3 28 61.50 33.40 0.08 8.18 281.4
3 29 62.40 40.00 0.01 10.29 291.7
3 30 68.10 35.00 0.01 11.65 303.3
3 31 68.40 35.90 0.00 12.02 315.4
4 1 62.90 44.70 0.02 12.80 328.2
4 2 59.50 50.50 0.28 14.00 342.2
4 3 59.10 42.80 0.00 9.95 352.1
4 4 56.70 43.60 0.14 9.15 361.3
4 5 56.30 44.40 0.52 9.35 370.6
4 6 59.10 41.80 0.75 9.45 380.1
4 7 54.20 46.80 0.82 9.50 389.6
4 8 60.30 46.70 0.18 12.50 402.1
4 9 56.50 45.60 0.03 10.05 412.1
4 10 54.30 41.40 0.02 6.85 419.0
4 11 54.60 47.60 0.02 10.10 429.1
4 12 60.50 43.00 0.05 10.75 439.8
4 13 51.00 41.00 0.05 5.00 444.8
4 14 52.90 37.80 0.04 4.99 449.8
4 15 51.00 37.20 0.12 3.97 453.8
4 16 58.20 43.80 0.02 10.00 463.8
4 17 65.20 47.90 0.01 15.55 479.3
4 18 74.20 45.30 0.00 18.75 498.1
4 19 59.50 51.40 0.26 14.45 512.5
4 20 64.40 47.90 0.01 15.15 527.7
4 21 62.50 40.70 0.00 10.61 538.3
4 22 64.50 39.20 0.00 11.05 549.3
4 23 67.50 47.70 0.00 16.60 565.9
4 24 66.10 36.50 0.00 11.06 577.0
4 25 74.30 44.20 0.00 18.25 595.3
4 26 66.50 47.20 0.00 15.85 611.1
4 27 57.30 41.00 0.00 8.15 619.3
4 28 66.00 31.90 0.00 10.00 629.3
4 29 66.80 43.30 0.01 14.05 643.3
4 30 69.90 44.20 0.00 16.05 659.4
5 1 68.50 36.50 0.00 12.23 671.6
5 2 66.40 35.80 0.00 11.03 682.6
5 3 69.90 38.90 0.00 13.63 696.2
5 4 74.50 44.80 0.00 18.65 714.9
5 5 76.00 46.60 0.00 20.30 735.2
5 6 81.80 48.00 0.00 23.90 759.1
5 7 78.80 45.70 0.00 21.25 780.3
5 8 78.90 46.20 0.00 21.55 801.9
5 9 84.70 50.60 0.00 26.65 828.5
5 10 85.50 46.30 0.00 24.90 853.4 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 11 84.80 48.20 0.00 25.50 878.9
5 12 75.00 46.50 0.00 19.75 898.7
5 13 70.80 45.30 0.00 17.05 915.7
5 14 61.40 48.20 0.10 13.80 929.5
5 15 62.20 44.60 0.15 12.40 941.9
5 16 59.60 52.80 0.12 15.20 957.1 Peak female adult emergence
5 17 61.80 51.10 0.00 15.45 972.6
5 18 69.70 50.60 0.34 19.15 991.7
5 19 61.70 50.80 0.38 15.25 1007.0 Peak egg laying
5 20 61.30 47.80 0.27 13.55 1020.5
5 21 64.50 49.00 0.02 15.75 1036.3
5 22 73.20 47.70 0.00 19.45 1055.7
5 23 80.00 50.60 0.00 24.30 1080.0
5 24 63.50 52.20 0.00 16.85 1096.9
5 25 56.60 48.40 0.22 11.50 1108.4
5 26 73.00 48.20 0.00 19.60 1128.0
5 27 72.10 55.50 0.08 22.80 1150.8
5 28 69.00 54.50 0.01 20.75 1171.5
5 29 77.80 49.30 0.00 22.55 1194.1
5 30 78.70 50.50 0.00 23.60 1217.7
5 31 83.60 53.70 0.00 27.65 1245.3
6 1 80.70 51.90 0.00 25.30 1270.6 Peak egg hatch
6 2 80.50 50.70 0.00 24.60 1295.2
6 3 73.20 50.40 0.00 20.80 1316.0
6 4 77.90 46.60 0.00 21.25 1337.3
6 5 66.30 52.90 0.00 18.60 1355.9
6 6 65.00 44.20 0.00 13.60 1369.5
6 7 65.10 45.80 0.02 14.45 1383.9
6 8 66.70 43.90 0.00 14.30 1398.2
6 9 83.20 46.60 0.00 23.90 1422.1
6 10 85.30 59.50 0.00 31.40 1453.5
6 11 95.10 64.80 0.00 38.95 1492.5
6 12 96.10 63.60 0.00 38.85 1531.3
6 13 83.80 55.10 0.00 28.45 1559.8
6 14 73.30 47.80 0.00 19.55 1579.3
6 15 79.20 47.70 0.00 22.45 1601.8
6 16 80.00 52.50 0.00 25.25 1627.0
6 17 81.00 51.30 0.00 25.15 1652.2
6 18 69.80 55.00 0.00 21.40 1673.6
6 19 68.90 51.40 0.00 19.15 1692.7
6 20 67.40 49.70 0.00 17.55 1710.3
6 21 70.60 53.60 0.00 21.10 1731.4
6 22 74.60 46.50 0.00 19.55 1750.9
6 23 68.60 49.20 0.00 17.90 1768.8
6 24 71.40 44.00 0.00 16.70 1785.5
6 25 71.80 50.50 0.04 20.15 1805.7
6 26 74.10 49.40 0.27 20.75 1826.4
6 27 61.70 52.70 0.17 16.20 1842.6
6 28 71.40 51.00 0.00 20.20 1862.8
6 29 79.20 49.90 0.00 23.55 1886.4
6 30 83.10 52.90 0.00 27.00 1913.4
7 1 79.50 55.50 0.25 26.50 1939.9
7 2 66.80 58.20 0.01 21.50 1961.4
7 3 71.50 51.70 0.00 20.60 1982.0
7 4 79.50 54.20 0.00 25.85 2007.8
7 5 74.00 56.70 0.00 24.35 2032.2
7 6 67.70 56.80 0.00 21.25 2053.4
7 7 75.20 48.70 0.00 20.95 2074.4 Peak in density large larvae
7 8 76.50 54.90 0.00 24.70 2099.1
7 9 73.00 57.60 0.23 24.30 2123.4
7 10 74.00 61.10 0.02 26.55 2149.9
7 11 78.40 60.00 0.00 28.20 2178.1
7 12 83.80 58.40 0.00 30.10 2208.2
7 13 80.40 61.60 0.00 30.00 2238.2
7 14 84.50 56.10 0.00 29.30 2267.5
7 15 74.20 61.50 0.04 26.85 2294.4
7 16 80.10 60.30 0.00 29.20 2323.6
7 17 73.00 56.70 0.00 23.85 2347.4
7 18 74.30 57.20 0.00 24.75 2372.2
7 19 74.70 49.20 0.00 20.95 2393.1
7 20 86.00 54.20 0.00 29.10 2422.2
7 21 89.70 54.20 0.00 30.95 2453.2
7 22 86.10 55.20 0.00 29.65 2482.8
7 23 76.20 56.30 0.00 25.25 2508.1
7 24 80.20 49.80 0.00 24.00 2532.1
7 25 89.70 56.30 0.00 32.00 2564.1
7 26 91.60 60.90 0.00 35.25 2599.3
7 27 77.90 58.80 0.00 27.35 2626.7
7 28 83.00 54.90 0.00 27.95 2654.6
7 29 81.60 57.30 0.00 28.45 2683.1
7 30 79.50 57.00 0.00 27.25 2710.3
7 31 85.00 54.90 0.00 28.95 2739.3
8 1 88.30 54.70 0.00 30.50 2769.8
8 2 78.90 62.90 0.00 29.90 2799.7
8 3 86.90 62.90 0.00 33.90 2833.6
8 4 92.90 59.70 0.00 35.30 2868.9
8 5 90.10 59.20 0.00 33.65 2902.5
8 6 87.50 58.50 0.00 32.00 2934.5
8 7 75.90 57.30 0.00 25.60 2960.1
8 8 69.90 61.50 0.00 24.70 2984.8
8 9 77.00 61.40 0.05 28.20 3013.0
8 10 75.50 56.70 0.15 25.10 3038.1
8 11 75.20 56.50 0.00 24.85 3063.0
8 12 81.70 52.60 0.00 26.15 3089.1
8 13 89.30 54.40 0.00 30.85 3120.0
8 14 86.50 58.60 0.00 31.55 3151.5
8 15 81.70 55.50 0.00 27.60 3179.1
8 16 75.90 52.90 0.00 23.40 3202.5
8 17 71.70 59.30 0.00 24.50 3227.0
8 18 78.80 57.60 0.00 27.20 3254.2
8 19 80.50 58.30 0.00 28.40 3282.6
8 20 83.50 52.80 0.00 27.15 3309.8
8 21 73.10 51.50 0.01 21.30 3331.1
8 22 76.20 47.20 0.00 20.70 3351.8
8 23 84.60 50.90 0.00 26.75 3378.5
8 24 80.90 54.40 0.00 26.65 3405.2
8 25 78.00 53.90 0.00 24.95 3430.1
8 26 86.80 54.70 0.00 29.75 3459.9
8 27 97.00 61.80 0.00 38.40 3498.3
8 28 97.80 57.20 0.00 36.50 3534.8
8 29 81.70 65.20 0.00 32.45 3567.2
8 30 78.50 62.50 0.00 29.50 3596.7
8 31 82.00 53.40 0.00 26.70 3623.4
9 1 82.50 57.70 0.00 29.10 3652.5
9 2 82.00 55.50 0.00 27.75 3680.3
9 3 82.90 55.80 0.00 28.35 3708.6
9 4 81.10 55.40 0.00 27.25 3735.9
9 5 92.10 56.70 0.00 33.40 3769.3
9 6 81.30 62.50 0.00 30.90 3800.2
9 7 68.00 59.60 0.05 22.80 3823.0
9 8 71.60 57.80 0.23 23.70 3846.7
9 9 68.40 57.80 0.27 22.10 3868.8
9 10 69.80 56.70 0.07 22.25 3891.0
9 11 72.70 54.60 0.01 22.65 3913.7
9 12 80.20 50.30 0.00 24.25 3937.9
9 13 75.60 59.80 0.04 26.70 3964.6
9 14 76.30 57.00 0.00 25.65 3990.3
9 15 62.70 56.30 0.87 18.50 4008.8
9 16 65.00 53.90 0.34 18.45 4027.2
9 17 61.70 53.20 0.29 16.45 4043.7
9 18 65.90 52.70 0.33 18.30 4062.0
9 19 69.50 47.00 0.01 17.25 4079.2
9 20 70.40 56.30 0.00 22.35 4101.6
9 21 68.40 51.10 0.00 18.75 4120.3
9 22 64.70 56.10 0.10 19.40 4139.7
9 23 66.70 48.40 0.00 16.55 4156.3
9 24 73.80 57.60 0.00 24.70 4181.0
9 25 72.50 48.80 0.00 19.65 4200.6
9 26 67.90 52.40 0.00 19.15 4219.8
9 27 61.80 42.10 0.01 10.95 4230.7
9 28 57.00 42.00 0.00 8.50 4239.2
9 29 49.60 39.80 0.03 3.88 4243.1
9 30 59.00 37.90 0.00 7.96 4251.1
10 1 62.90 33.40 0.00 8.83 4259.9
10 2 59.20 34.40 0.00 7.29 4267.2
10 3 55.70 46.90 0.14 10.30 4277.5
10 4 61.50 47.40 0.02 13.45 4291.0
10 5 62.90 45.40 0.01 13.15 4304.1
10 6 71.80 38.50 0.00 14.44 4318.5
10 7 67.50 39.80 0.00 12.76 4331.3
10 8 59.50 37.40 0.05 8.08 4339.4
10 9 57.10 30.80 0.01 5.77 4345.1
10 10 62.00 32.20 0.00 8.20 4353.3
10 11 65.20 34.90 0.00 10.24 4363.6
10 12 62.00 35.20 0.00 8.77 4372.3
10 13 65.20 46.20 0.00 14.70 4387.0
10 14 64.30 33.60 0.00 9.53 4396.6
10 15 58.20 36.70 0.00 7.28 4403.9
10 16 56.40 49.50 0.45 11.95 4415.8
10 17 58.00 48.90 0.50 12.45 4428.3
10 18 56.60 46.70 0.09 10.65 4438.9
10 19 57.10 46.10 0.61 10.60 4449.5
10 20 58.00 43.80 0.02 9.90 4459.4
10 21 61.60 50.00 0.00 14.80 4474.2
10 22 63.10 45.90 0.12 13.50 4487.7
10 23 62.50 38.10 0.01 9.73 4497.4
10 24 71.20 38.90 0.00 14.28 4511.7
10 25 60.70 42.80 0.01 10.75 4522.5
10 26 56.10 35.60 0.00 6.06 4528.5
10 27 56.30 34.80 0.00 6.01 4534.5
10 28 56.40 29.60 0.00 5.31 4539.9
10 29 45.80 29.70 0.00 1.15 4541.0
10 30 53.60 27.60 0.00 3.94 4544.9
10 31 55.70 26.20 0.00 4.67 4549.6
11 1 61.90 28.40 0.00 7.57 4557.2
11 2 64.60 30.00 0.00 9.03 4566.2
11 3 62.50 33.20 0.00 8.61 4574.8
11 4 57.00 31.80 0.00 5.86 4580.7
11 5 45.70 33.50 0.01 1.29 4582.0
11 6 63.20 40.20 0.00 10.76 4592.7
11 7 63.70 33.40 0.00 9.21 4601.9
11 8 61.20 31.00 0.01 7.63 4609.6
11 9 49.20 36.30 0.17 3.00 4612.6
11 10 54.10 47.80 0.01 9.95 4622.5
11 11 61.90 44.40 0.00 12.15 4634.7
11 12 50.70 40.90 0.05 4.80 4639.5
11 13 57.60 41.00 0.00 8.30 4647.8
11 14 56.40 39.10 0.00 7.02 4654.8
11 15 56.00 44.70 0.11 9.35 4664.2
11 16 51.80 43.10 0.01 6.45 4670.6
11 17 54.70 47.10 0.01 9.90 4680.5
11 18 55.00 51.40 0.08 12.20 4692.7
11 19 55.00 45.50 0.58 9.25 4702.0
11 20 56.10 38.50 0.01 6.71 4708.7
11 21 55.00 32.00 0.00 5.00 4713.7
11 22 51.80 28.00 0.00 3.25 4716.9
11 23 48.50 28.80 0.00 2.05 4719.0
11 24 45.70 36.50 0.03 1.51 4720.5
11 25 48.80 36.50 0.08 2.85 4723.3
11 26 42.20 36.10 0.12 0.23 4723.6
11 27 46.30 32.00 0.00 1.43 4725.0
11 28 42.50 31.40 0.00 0.24 4725.2
11 29 44.70 25.90 0.00 0.71 4725.9
11 30 40.70 21.10 0.00 0.00 4725.9
12 1 40.20 32.50 0.13 0.00 4725.9
12 2 50.50 31.00 0.00 2.98 4728.9
12 3 44.00 29.90 0.01 0.60 4729.5
12 4 47.40 36.90 0.00 2.29 4731.8
12 5 50.00 37.70 0.00 3.60 4735.4
12 6 48.60 34.50 0.17 2.53 4737.9
12 7 47.20 42.80 0.64 4.00 4741.9
12 8 49.90 36.50 0.01 3.35 4745.3
12 9 49.40 38.20 0.00 3.41 4748.7
12 10 43.60 40.10 0.45 1.05 4749.7
12 11 48.20 43.00 0.50 4.60 4754.3
12 12 52.40 40.40 0.39 5.46 4759.8
12 13 46.30 38.70 0.03 2.06 4761.8
12 14 44.10 36.00 0.03 0.85 4762.7
12 15 40.10 35.90 0.00 0.00 4762.7
12 16 48.90 33.50 0.01 2.55 4765.2
12 17 43.40 30.50 0.00 0.45 4765.7
12 18 40.20 30.50 0.15 0.00 4765.7
12 19 54.50 38.20 0.87 5.85 4771.5
12 20 56.30 50.80 1.45 12.55 4784.1
12 21 50.60 44.20 0.65 6.40 4790.5
12 22 45.90 41.40 0.16 2.65 4793.1
12 23 43.00 38.80 0.00 0.62 4793.8
12 24 38.90 36.50 0.03 0.00 4793.8
12 25 42.00 32.70 0.09 0.14 4793.9
12 26 43.00 29.80 0.00 0.34 4794.2
12 27 41.40 36.00 0.01 0.05 4794.3
12 28 44.20 40.00 0.01 1.31 4795.6
12 29 44.60 40.40 0.06 1.60 4797.2
12 30 46.70 38.90 0.00 2.28 4799.5
12 31 49.66 39.37 0.26 3.79 4803.3
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 FOGO PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2019 FOGO FOREST GROVE OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-10-19 | 853 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-16-19 | 957 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-19-19 | 1007 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-1-19 | 1271 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-7-19 | 2074 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?1078684)
