Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
immaturedamagepupaadult
orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
insect model of Knight (1988)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight (1988) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 No ending date, set to: default date 12 31 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 850 DDs after biofix: peak pheromone trap catch 2. 950 DDs after biofix: peak female adult emergence 3. 1000 DDs after biofix: peak egg laying 4. 1270 DDs after biofix: peak egg hatch 5. 2070 DDs after biofix: peak in density large larvae ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 FOGO Agrimet FOREST GROVE OR Lat45.5531 Long:-123.0833 Elev:180 mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 46.60 29.60 0.01 1.41 1.4 * START * 1 2 43.60 28.40 0.00 0.46 1.9 1 3 45.20 32.00 0.00 1.04 2.9 1 4 46.50 32.40 0.14 1.52 4.4 1 5 48.20 40.50 0.38 3.40 7.8 1 6 46.90 37.90 0.02 2.20 10.1 1 7 44.30 39.10 0.20 1.21 11.3 1 8 44.30 38.90 0.10 1.18 12.4 1 9 50.20 40.70 0.35 4.47 16.9 1 10 47.00 38.40 0.07 2.33 19.2 1 11 56.30 47.20 1.01 10.75 30.0 1 12 51.60 47.30 0.00 8.45 38.4 1 13 63.40 40.10 0.00 10.83 49.3 1 14 59.70 38.80 0.01 8.56 57.8 1 15 56.00 38.30 0.11 6.60 64.4 1 16 55.70 42.20 0.15 7.95 72.4 1 17 53.30 40.90 0.23 6.10 78.5 1 18 50.00 41.40 0.27 4.70 83.2 1 19 47.30 40.50 0.06 2.96 86.1 1 20 47.50 40.60 0.04 3.09 89.2 1 21 49.70 43.50 0.25 5.60 94.8 1 22 50.20 39.40 0.29 4.07 98.9 1 23 49.40 38.90 0.79 3.56 102.4 1 24 48.90 38.20 0.63 3.18 105.6 1 25 48.50 38.10 0.50 2.97 108.6 1 26 44.30 38.00 0.56 1.08 109.7 1 27 54.00 41.70 0.18 6.85 116.5 1 28 59.60 47.00 0.04 12.30 128.8 1 29 51.30 45.30 0.46 7.30 136.1 1 30 49.10 37.20 0.08 3.09 139.2 1 31 45.50 36.10 0.00 1.40 140.6 2 1 47.20 40.60 0.12 2.94 143.6 2 2 60.60 43.50 0.00 11.05 154.6 2 3 57.00 45.30 0.01 10.15 164.8 2 4 61.20 47.90 0.00 13.55 178.3 2 5 58.00 39.30 0.00 7.87 186.2 2 6 50.00 32.80 0.00 2.94 189.1 2 7 55.20 35.60 0.00 5.64 194.8 2 8 52.30 39.20 0.00 5.04 199.8 2 9 49.50 38.10 0.00 3.44 203.2 2 10 50.00 29.70 0.01 2.68 205.9 2 11 49.10 32.20 0.00 2.52 208.4 2 12 47.20 29.90 0.00 1.64 210.1 2 13 51.00 24.60 0.00 2.73 212.8 2 14 49.20 35.20 0.18 2.86 215.6 2 15 49.90 33.90 0.01 3.01 218.7 2 16 52.50 39.60 0.01 5.25 223.9 2 17 52.70 39.50 0.04 5.32 229.2 2 18 40.00 31.70 0.44 0.00 229.2 2 19 39.90 29.50 0.00 0.00 229.2 2 20 37.00 26.90 0.18 0.00 229.2 2 21 36.30 27.10 0.15 0.00 229.2 2 22 39.50 27.50 0.15 0.00 229.2 2 23 37.20 21.50 0.11 0.00 229.2 2 24 48.30 32.60 0.28 2.23 231.5 2 25 45.30 32.90 0.35 1.12 232.6 2 26 45.80 31.50 0.02 1.22 233.8 2 27 44.70 30.60 0.01 0.83 234.6 2 28 45.10 40.00 0.45 1.74 236.4 3 1 45.50 33.90 0.16 1.24 237.6 3 2 49.10 34.30 0.10 2.72 240.3 3 3 50.90 35.30 0.05 3.62 243.9 3 4 50.30 27.90 0.01 2.67 246.6 3 5 50.80 34.80 0.02 3.51 250.1 3 6 55.50 28.30 0.00 4.79 254.9 3 7 52.50 34.10 0.00 4.17 259.1 3 8 57.00 38.70 0.46 7.20 266.3 3 9 53.40 38.10 0.00 5.30 271.6 3 10 60.00 29.10 0.01 6.82 278.4 3 11 67.60 39.10 0.00 12.56 291.0 3 12 67.80 39.50 0.00 12.80 303.8 3 13 56.10 43.60 0.45 8.85 312.6 3 14 53.60 38.20 0.17 5.42 318.0 3 15 52.90 31.80 0.20 4.06 322.1 3 16 53.20 40.00 0.03 5.72 327.8 3 17 53.50 36.50 0.03 5.01 332.8 3 18 51.00 37.70 0.06 4.07 336.9 3 19 58.40 31.10 0.00 6.38 343.3 3 20 60.30 30.90 0.00 7.21 350.5 3 21 51.00 33.10 0.22 3.39 353.9 3 22 50.60 39.00 0.37 4.16 358.0 3 23 44.70 33.20 0.62 0.92 359.0 3 24 42.20 34.90 0.25 0.21 359.2 3 25 53.60 36.00 0.04 4.97 364.1 3 26 49.60 36.60 0.01 3.23 367.4 3 27 56.80 43.70 0.00 9.25 376.6 3 28 57.50 37.70 0.01 7.18 383.8 3 29 59.90 34.20 0.00 7.58 391.4 3 30 58.30 40.50 0.00 8.44 399.8 3 31 64.40 41.70 0.00 12.05 411.9 4 1 52.30 37.10 0.01 4.56 416.4 4 2 54.50 34.90 0.04 5.19 421.6 4 3 51.10 30.30 0.00 3.16 424.8 4 4 57.10 43.30 0.00 9.20 434.0 4 5 51.10 45.30 0.26 7.20 441.2 4 6 67.90 51.00 0.09 18.45 459.6 4 7 58.70 46.70 1.01 11.70 471.3 4 8 54.60 45.00 0.67 8.80 480.1 4 9 63.80 40.00 0.00 10.99 491.1 4 10 61.20 48.50 0.14 13.85 505.0 4 11 55.70 41.40 0.13 7.55 512.5 4 12 50.30 39.60 0.46 4.17 516.7 4 13 53.40 44.20 0.33 7.80 524.5 4 14 56.90 48.10 0.11 11.50 536.0 4 15 48.70 42.60 0.64 4.65 540.6 4 16 49.50 40.30 0.11 3.98 544.6 4 17 54.90 37.00 0.04 5.77 550.4 4 18 61.50 40.40 0.00 9.99 560.4 4 19 66.10 38.20 0.00 11.53 571.9 4 20 64.50 37.00 0.00 10.41 582.3 4 21 60.40 43.10 0.00 10.75 593.1 4 22 63.70 39.50 0.00 10.76 603.8 4 23 71.70 39.20 0.00 14.63 618.4 4 24 76.80 44.60 0.00 19.70 638.1 4 25 83.50 46.70 0.00 24.10 662.2 4 26 84.90 50.20 0.00 26.55 688.8 4 27 55.00 48.30 0.11 10.65 699.4 4 28 60.10 43.90 0.35 11.00 710.4 4 29 59.40 44.60 0.11 11.00 721.4 4 30 57.20 45.60 0.05 10.40 731.8 5 1 59.30 46.00 0.00 11.65 743.5 5 2 73.10 42.40 0.00 16.75 760.2 5 3 76.40 45.10 0.00 19.75 780.0 5 4 66.80 49.10 0.00 16.95 796.9 5 5 74.30 51.30 0.00 21.80 818.7 5 6 71.60 51.30 0.00 20.45 839.2 5 7 76.50 52.20 0.00 23.35 862.5 peak pheromone trap catch 5 8 77.20 49.00 0.01 22.10 884.6 5 9 68.20 53.40 0.00 19.80 904.4 5 10 62.90 47.50 0.10 14.20 918.6 5 11 69.90 40.40 0.00 14.19 932.8 5 12 80.50 48.90 0.00 23.70 956.5 peak female adult emergence 5 13 88.30 49.80 0.00 28.05 984.6 5 14 88.90 53.80 0.00 30.35 1014.9 peak egg laying 5 15 70.60 53.70 0.00 21.15 1036.1 5 16 68.20 54.70 0.00 20.45 1056.5 5 17 66.80 53.60 0.00 19.20 1075.7 5 18 64.80 50.70 0.00 16.75 1092.5 5 19 71.30 51.90 0.00 20.60 1113.1 5 20 69.60 52.80 0.00 20.20 1133.3 5 21 73.70 44.30 0.00 18.00 1151.3 5 22 87.70 51.50 0.00 28.60 1179.9 5 23 81.40 56.00 0.00 27.70 1207.6 5 24 72.80 56.20 0.00 23.50 1231.1 5 25 71.10 50.50 0.00 19.80 1250.9 5 26 67.50 44.30 0.00 14.90 1265.8 5 27 78.50 48.30 0.00 22.40 1288.2 peak egg hatch 5 28 70.90 51.60 0.00 20.25 1308.4 5 29 65.50 45.70 0.00 14.60 1323.0 5 30 67.20 38.80 0.00 12.26 1335.3 5 31 62.90 46.30 0.00 13.60 1348.9 6 1 69.50 39.90 0.01 13.79 1362.7 6 2 82.00 48.10 0.00 24.05 1386.7 6 3 70.60 52.10 0.00 20.35 1407.1 6 4 65.80 45.00 0.00 14.40 1421.5 6 5 71.90 42.00 0.00 15.95 1437.4 6 6 78.00 46.40 0.00 21.20 1458.6 6 7 71.30 52.70 0.00 21.00 1479.6 6 8 64.30 54.20 0.57 18.25 1497.9 6 9 63.70 47.50 0.16 14.60 1512.5 6 10 56.60 47.50 0.28 11.05 1523.5 6 11 69.60 43.40 0.01 15.50 1539.0 6 12 78.10 44.50 0.00 20.30 1559.3 6 13 68.50 52.40 0.00 19.45 1578.8 6 14 65.80 46.80 0.00 15.30 1594.1 6 15 69.30 51.60 0.00 19.45 1613.5 6 16 76.90 50.10 0.00 22.50 1636.0 6 17 87.60 53.90 0.00 29.75 1665.8 6 18 84.70 52.30 0.00 27.50 1693.3 6 19 87.60 51.90 0.00 28.75 1722.0 6 20 93.80 57.00 0.00 34.40 1756.4 6 21 71.20 57.90 0.01 23.55 1780.0 6 22 76.10 57.50 0.00 25.80 1805.8 6 23 74.20 54.40 0.00 23.30 1829.1 6 24 90.30 54.20 0.01 31.25 1860.3 6 25 70.90 52.60 0.06 20.75 1881.1 6 26 73.00 45.70 0.00 18.35 1899.4 6 27 74.20 50.90 0.00 21.55 1921.0 6 28 73.20 46.60 0.00 18.90 1939.9 6 29 77.50 48.10 0.00 21.80 1961.7 6 30 77.90 53.90 0.00 24.90 1986.6 7 1 74.50 56.20 0.00 24.35 2010.9 7 2 68.40 52.70 0.00 19.55 2030.5 7 3 75.50 43.30 0.00 18.40 2048.9 7 4 79.60 58.50 0.00 28.05 2076.9 peak in density large larvae 7 5 83.80 53.70 0.00 27.75 2104.7 7 6 78.80 53.10 0.00 24.95 2129.6 7 7 79.40 52.60 0.00 25.00 2154.6 7 8 85.80 53.60 0.00 28.70 2183.3 7 9 68.80 52.40 0.02 19.60 2202.9 7 10 75.30 57.20 0.00 25.25 2228.2 7 11 86.30 59.50 0.00 31.90 2260.1 7 12 95.20 63.60 0.00 38.40 2298.5 7 13 91.10 62.40 0.00 35.75 2334.2 7 14 90.60 55.30 0.00 31.95 2366.2 7 15 97.80 60.20 0.00 38.00 2404.2 7 16 96.00 60.40 0.00 37.20 2441.4 7 17 90.00 57.40 0.00 32.70 2474.1 7 18 82.80 54.90 0.00 27.85 2501.9 7 19 69.00 55.20 0.00 21.10 2523.0 7 20 76.80 45.70 0.00 20.25 2543.3 7 21 78.50 52.70 0.00 24.60 2567.9 7 22 94.70 53.90 0.00 33.30 2601.2 7 23 93.70 56.60 0.00 34.15 2635.3 7 24 93.80 55.20 0.00 33.50 2668.8 7 25 94.40 56.00 0.00 34.20 2703.0 7 26 95.20 55.70 0.00 34.45 2737.5 7 27 90.30 55.30 0.00 31.80 2769.3 7 28 89.80 56.40 0.00 32.10 2801.4 7 29 99.60 59.70 0.00 38.65 2840.0 7 30 92.60 63.60 0.00 37.10 2877.1 7 31 88.90 58.40 0.00 32.65 2909.8 8 1 85.80 54.50 0.00 29.15 2938.9 8 2 72.00 55.40 0.00 22.70 2961.6 8 3 74.40 57.40 0.00 24.90 2986.5 8 4 85.40 52.10 0.00 27.75 3014.3 8 5 90.20 55.90 0.00 32.05 3046.3 8 6 91.00 58.80 0.00 33.90 3080.2 8 7 95.70 58.60 0.00 36.15 3116.4 8 8 93.80 59.50 0.00 35.65 3152.0 8 9 97.40 60.70 0.00 38.05 3190.1 8 10 89.70 61.20 0.00 34.45 3224.5 8 11 77.10 56.80 0.00 25.95 3250.5 8 12 75.80 53.50 0.00 23.65 3274.1 8 13 90.40 55.90 0.00 32.15 3306.3 8 14 94.10 57.80 0.00 34.95 3341.2 8 15 90.90 58.40 0.00 33.65 3374.9 8 16 82.50 56.60 0.00 28.55 3403.4 8 17 81.30 45.80 0.00 22.55 3426.0 8 18 86.60 49.50 0.00 27.05 3453.0 8 19 88.20 52.50 0.00 29.35 3482.4 8 20 85.10 56.50 0.00 29.80 3512.2 8 21 91.10 62.60 0.00 35.85 3548.0 8 22 92.80 53.70 0.00 32.25 3580.3 8 23 74.50 52.70 0.00 22.60 3602.9 8 24 70.70 49.80 0.00 19.25 3622.1 8 25 72.00 44.80 0.00 17.40 3639.5 8 26 68.10 50.00 0.00 18.05 3657.6 8 27 77.50 59.10 0.00 27.30 3684.9 8 28 87.90 49.70 0.00 27.80 3712.7 8 29 85.30 49.80 0.00 26.55 3739.2 8 30 73.60 52.70 0.00 22.15 3761.4 8 31 74.40 55.60 0.00 24.00 3785.4 9 1 74.30 44.00 0.00 18.15 3803.5 9 2 81.50 46.30 0.00 22.90 3826.4 9 3 78.20 51.50 0.00 23.85 3850.3 9 4 83.90 47.90 0.00 24.90 3875.2 9 5 91.10 57.00 0.00 33.05 3908.2 9 6 87.20 50.70 0.00 27.95 3936.2 9 7 82.10 49.90 0.00 25.00 3961.2 9 8 73.90 54.10 0.00 23.00 3984.2 9 9 78.20 48.20 0.00 22.20 4006.4 9 10 76.10 57.10 0.02 25.60 4032.0 Px 9 11 65.60 50.90 0.26 17.25 4049.2 9 12 65.40 50.20 0.06 16.80 4066.0 9 13 68.70 49.10 0.04 17.90 4083.9 9 14 67.60 45.20 0.01 15.40 4099.3 9 15 63.90 47.00 0.00 14.45 4113.8 9 16 69.30 49.50 0.23 18.40 4132.2 9 17 68.40 42.40 0.00 14.40 4146.6 9 18 71.90 44.00 0.00 16.95 4163.5 9 19 71.20 41.90 0.00 15.55 4179.1 9 20 72.40 41.70 0.00 16.05 4195.1 9 21 73.80 45.70 0.00 18.75 4213.9 9 22 70.00 49.00 0.00 18.50 4232.4 9 23 69.20 41.70 0.00 14.45 4246.8 9 24 73.20 40.50 0.00 15.88 4262.7 9 25 81.40 48.50 0.00 23.95 4286.7 9 26 85.30 51.00 0.00 27.15 4313.8 9 27 86.20 47.50 0.00 25.85 4339.7 9 28 87.20 48.00 0.00 26.60 4366.3 9 29 62.40 52.30 0.07 16.35 4382.6 9 30 68.00 50.20 0.01 18.10 4400.7 10 1 70.50 55.90 0.00 22.20 4422.9 10 2 69.70 47.80 0.00 17.75 4440.7 10 3 65.80 37.90 0.00 11.29 4452.0 10 4 64.50 42.80 0.00 12.65 4464.6 10 5 54.90 38.50 0.52 6.12 4470.7 10 6 62.90 44.70 0.05 12.80 4483.5 10 7 53.60 41.60 0.21 6.60 4490.1 10 8 62.40 51.90 0.04 16.15 4506.3 10 9 65.50 48.70 0.01 16.10 4522.4 10 10 68.00 45.50 0.00 15.75 4538.1 10 11 70.20 40.10 0.00 14.22 4552.3 10 12 72.00 38.50 0.00 14.54 4566.9 10 13 70.70 47.80 0.00 18.25 4585.1 10 14 69.70 38.70 0.00 13.47 4598.6 10 15 75.90 36.00 0.00 15.71 4614.3 10 16 78.70 36.70 0.00 17.29 4631.6 10 17 77.10 38.90 0.00 17.21 4648.8 10 18 72.80 35.80 0.00 14.14 4662.9 10 19 75.10 34.60 0.00 14.95 4677.9 10 20 71.50 38.40 0.00 14.26 4692.2 10 21 70.00 34.10 0.00 12.36 4704.5 10 22 70.70 36.10 0.00 13.19 4717.7 10 23 55.40 36.50 0.00 5.91 4723.6 10 24 59.80 50.50 0.00 14.15 4737.8 10 25 56.10 50.40 0.48 12.25 4750.0 10 26 62.20 53.30 0.14 16.75 4766.8 10 27 62.20 51.90 0.99 16.05 4782.8 10 28 62.70 49.90 0.21 15.30 4798.1 10 29 59.00 43.40 0.08 10.20 4808.3 10 30 49.50 42.00 0.05 4.75 4813.1 10 31 55.90 48.20 0.16 11.05 4824.1 11 1 65.70 54.40 0.00 19.05 4843.2 11 2 64.50 51.10 0.07 16.80 4860.0 11 3 56.70 47.80 0.03 11.25 4871.2 11 4 63.00 44.00 0.09 12.50 4883.7 11 5 57.70 41.80 0.00 8.75 4892.5 11 6 54.90 39.30 0.07 6.34 4898.8 11 7 50.50 37.80 0.01 3.85 4902.7 11 8 58.40 31.10 0.00 6.38 4909.0 11 9 50.40 28.20 0.00 2.72 4911.8 11 10 54.60 30.90 0.00 4.69 4916.5 11 11 57.00 33.90 0.00 6.18 4922.6 11 12 56.40 31.30 0.00 5.52 4928.2 11 13 47.00 29.20 0.00 1.53 4929.7 11 14 49.70 31.70 0.00 2.72 4932.4 11 15 57.80 42.90 0.00 9.35 4941.8 11 16 57.90 40.00 0.00 8.05 4949.8 11 17 57.30 36.10 0.01 6.72 4956.5 11 18 56.90 29.90 0.00 5.57 4962.1 11 19 57.50 28.20 0.00 5.63 4967.7 11 20 54.60 27.90 0.01 4.38 4972.1 11 21 45.10 37.90 0.12 1.41 4973.5 11 22 49.10 43.10 0.79 5.10 4978.6 11 23 50.70 39.50 0.39 4.34 4982.9 11 24 41.50 34.90 0.01 0.06 4983.0 11 25 40.40 31.90 0.01 0.00 4983.0 11 26 50.90 38.90 0.13 4.28 4987.3 11 27 60.00 48.70 0.81 13.35 5000.6 11 28 49.20 44.30 0.30 5.75 5006.4 11 29 50.50 39.80 0.00 4.32 5010.7 11 30 49.40 38.60 0.62 3.49 5014.2 12 1 44.20 39.50 0.01 1.22 5015.4 12 2 43.50 38.70 0.02 0.81 5016.2 12 3 47.60 30.00 0.01 1.79 5018.0 12 4 46.50 30.50 0.00 1.42 5019.4 12 5 43.60 28.20 0.00 0.46 5019.9 12 6 43.90 27.70 0.00 0.53 5020.4 12 7 39.00 25.60 0.01 0.00 5020.4 12 8 41.20 34.20 0.03 0.01 5020.4 12 9 40.60 37.20 0.42 0.00 5020.4
DD accumulation on 12-9-18: 5020QA 100% ok    
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 DDs exceed full year 2017 ok
 33 days behind 2016 ok
 DDs exceed full year 30-yr normals ok
Forecast using:  Fox - IPPC forecast for FOGO data
 12 10  52.70 41.60  0.06   6.15   5026.6  0.063_0.33%_precip.    
 12 11  56.00 41.20  0.32   7.60   5034.2  0.315_1.22%_precip.    
 12 12  52.60 40.40  0.06   5.56   5039.8  0.061_0.28%_precip.    
 12 13  56.30 46.20  0.05  10.25   5050.0  0.048_1.96%_precip.    
 12 14  50.80 35.10  0.31   3.55   5053.6  0.309_0.02%_precip.    
Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg FOGO 2006-2015
 12 15  44.10 34.30  0.39   0.77   5054.3  *hist_fcst*    
 12 16  43.10 33.90  0.22   0.44   5054.8  *hist_fcst*    
 12 17  44.10 33.20  0.26   0.72   5055.5  *hist_fcst*    
 12 18  44.70 33.70  0.35   0.95   5056.4  *hist_fcst*    
 12 19  44.10 34.40  0.21   0.77   5057.2  *hist_fcst*    
 12 20  43.90 34.90  0.27   0.72   5057.9  *hist_fcst*    
 12 21  44.80 35.30  0.54   1.07   5059.0  *hist_fcst*    
 12 22  44.90 34.20  0.19   1.04   5060.0  *hist_fcst*    
 12 23  44.30 34.60  0.15   0.85   5060.9  *hist_fcst*    
 12 24  44.90 34.40  0.28   1.05   5061.9  *hist_fcst*    
 12 25  43.20 33.40  0.23   0.45   5062.4  *hist_fcst*    
 12 26  42.70 33.50  0.22   0.32   5062.7  *hist_fcst*    
 12 27  42.50 34.40  0.26   0.28   5063.0  *hist_fcst*    
 12 28  43.20 33.70  0.39   0.46   5063.4  *hist_fcst*    
 12 29  45.60 33.90  0.24   1.28   5064.7  *hist_fcst*    
 12 30  41.70 32.00  0.24   0.08   5064.8  *hist_fcst*    
 12 31  41.60 29.50  0.10   0.06   5064.9  *hist_fcst*    
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight
Location: 2018 FOGO FOREST GROVE OR
DD accumulation on 12-9-18: 5020 QA 100% ok  - show details 
  
This year is about  versus  QA
 DDs exceed full year 2017 ok
 33 days behind 2016 ok
 DDs exceed full year 30-yr normals ok
DateDDsEvent
 5-7-18 863peak pheromone trap catch
 5-12-18 957peak female adult emergence
 5-14-18 1015peak egg laying
 5-27-18 1288peak egg hatch
 7-4-18 2077peak in density large larvae
degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight (1988)