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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
No ending date, set to: default date 12 31
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2017 FOGO Agrimet FOREST GROVE OR Lat45.5531 Long:-123.0833 Elev:180
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 36.10 31.60 0.47 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 33.80 29.30 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 3 34.80 27.20 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 4 35.50 22.80 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 5 37.40 16.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 6 35.10 13.90 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 7 29.40 18.20 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 8 33.80 28.80 0.85 0.00 0.0
1 9 37.70 32.80 0.55 0.00 0.0
1 10 38.30 31.60 0.28 0.00 0.0
1 11 34.20 28.40 0.32 0.00 0.0
1 12 40.50 13.20 0.09 0.00 0.0
1 13 27.60 7.10 0.01 0.00 0.0
1 14 35.50 5.60 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 15 34.20 8.20 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 16 35.10 17.90 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 17 34.70 24.40 0.93 0.00 0.0
1 18 51.90 36.20 1.64 4.21 4.2
1 19 49.30 41.60 0.05 4.45 8.7
1 20 44.00 38.90 0.23 1.05 9.7
1 21 46.80 39.20 0.50 2.38 12.1
1 22 50.70 37.60 0.13 3.91 16.0
1 23 51.50 31.80 0.00 3.47 19.5
1 24 40.80 27.60 0.00 0.00 19.5
1 25 44.90 34.30 0.02 1.05 20.5
1 26 47.50 34.10 0.02 2.03 22.5
1 27 49.70 29.90 0.00 2.57 25.1
1 28 46.40 30.50 0.00 1.39 26.5
1 29 42.50 30.10 0.00 0.22 26.7
1 30 48.10 38.70 0.00 2.90 29.6
1 31 49.40 33.00 0.00 2.71 32.3
2 1 39.00 31.60 0.00 0.00 32.3
2 2 40.20 32.30 0.00 0.00 32.3
2 3 35.50 31.60 0.44 0.00 32.3
2 4 53.00 36.10 0.55 4.71 37.0
2 5 44.10 32.70 1.66 0.71 37.8
2 6 43.70 33.90 0.55 0.62 38.4
2 7 39.50 34.70 0.03 0.00 38.4
2 8 40.40 37.30 1.19 0.00 38.4
2 9 60.30 40.20 1.52 9.32 47.7
2 10 50.00 35.80 0.32 3.29 51.0
2 11 52.30 31.30 0.02 3.75 54.7
2 12 54.30 31.10 0.00 4.58 59.3
2 13 58.50 29.70 0.00 6.24 65.6
2 14 51.30 30.10 0.15 3.23 68.8
2 15 56.30 42.80 1.44 8.55 77.3
2 16 54.40 44.00 1.34 8.20 85.5
2 17 57.50 43.60 0.00 9.55 95.1
2 18 52.10 42.10 0.09 6.10 101.2
2 19 48.50 39.90 0.78 3.37 104.5
2 20 51.60 41.90 0.78 5.75 110.3
2 21 50.70 35.80 0.28 3.61 113.9
2 22 49.20 29.90 0.10 2.38 116.3
2 23 44.10 28.00 0.02 0.59 116.9
2 24 41.20 31.60 0.07 0.01 116.9
2 25 48.90 28.40 0.00 2.17 119.1
2 26 43.70 35.50 0.21 0.68 119.7
2 27 45.40 33.80 0.06 1.20 120.9
2 28 50.70 31.50 0.00 3.11 124.0
3 1 51.60 39.90 0.05 4.89 128.9
3 2 49.60 40.00 0.04 3.94 132.9
3 3 50.30 39.50 0.34 4.14 137.0
3 4 45.10 32.80 0.26 1.04 138.1
3 5 44.10 34.00 0.26 0.75 138.8
3 6 45.10 32.50 0.43 1.03 139.8
3 7 48.60 39.10 0.61 3.22 143.1
3 8 45.80 41.40 0.18 2.60 145.7
3 9 55.50 43.20 0.64 8.35 154.0
3 10 61.10 44.90 0.01 12.00 166.0
3 11 56.20 40.50 0.50 7.39 173.4
3 12 62.90 44.20 0.00 12.55 186.0
3 13 55.00 44.20 0.36 8.60 194.6 *Warning: using yesterdays min*
3 14 58.20 44.20 0.67 10.20 204.8 *Warning: using yesterdays min*
3 15 56.10 44.60 0.96 9.35 214.1
3 16 55.50 35.00 0.00 5.67 219.8
3 17 46.00 34.50 0.51 1.47 221.2
3 18 53.50 36.60 0.36 5.03 226.3
3 19 56.60 32.00 0.00 5.71 232.0
3 20 55.00 36.00 0.14 5.62 237.6
3 21 60.10 44.60 0.36 11.35 249.0
3 22 54.80 40.60 0.04 6.73 255.7
3 23 55.20 39.90 0.34 6.68 262.4
3 24 55.30 45.00 0.31 9.15 271.5
3 25 55.20 37.40 0.03 6.00 277.5
3 26 50.70 43.30 0.44 6.00 283.5
3 27 56.60 42.10 0.06 8.35 291.9
3 28 59.00 45.50 0.08 11.25 303.1
3 29 61.50 45.40 0.31 12.45 315.6
3 30 56.10 39.50 0.01 6.99 322.6
3 31 59.10 33.20 0.00 7.03 329.6
4 1 62.10 46.50 0.01 13.30 342.9
4 2 55.50 34.60 0.00 5.60 348.5
4 3 57.10 34.70 0.00 6.36 354.8
4 4 55.50 36.70 0.00 5.99 360.8 Hx Hn
4 5 54.50 44.90 0.11 8.70 369.5
4 6 60.40 45.20 0.26 11.80 381.3
4 7 54.40 42.80 0.46 7.60 388.9
4 8 53.90 38.90 0.02 5.74 394.7
4 9 56.00 36.90 0.26 6.27 401.0
4 10 56.10 38.60 0.05 6.73 407.7
4 11 58.80 35.50 0.30 7.31 415.0
4 12 60.70 44.50 0.69 11.60 426.6
4 13 53.90 42.10 0.05 7.00 433.6
4 14 55.70 39.30 0.05 6.73 440.3
4 15 59.10 33.20 0.00 7.03 447.4
4 16 63.50 39.50 0.01 10.66 458.0
4 17 58.10 46.20 0.18 11.15 469.2
4 18 65.00 46.90 0.16 14.95 484.1
4 19 53.60 41.70 0.54 6.65 490.8
4 20 60.90 42.20 0.14 10.55 501.3
4 21 68.60 34.40 0.01 11.76 513.1
4 22 61.10 44.90 0.11 12.00 525.1
4 23 56.30 44.10 0.11 9.20 534.3
4 24 56.10 44.80 0.57 9.45 543.7
4 25 52.70 43.60 0.19 7.15 550.9
4 26 59.20 39.90 0.05 8.66 559.5
4 27 59.10 37.10 0.03 7.81 567.3
4 28 61.20 35.40 0.00 8.43 575.8
4 29 62.10 37.00 0.02 9.24 585.0
4 30 58.40 43.00 0.01 9.70 594.7
5 1 52.80 35.70 0.01 4.55 599.3
5 2 63.70 49.90 0.03 15.80 615.1
5 3 82.90 57.20 0.00 29.05 644.1
5 4 83.60 56.40 0.08 29.00 673.1
5 5 59.70 41.40 0.22 9.55 682.7
5 6 60.40 39.50 0.01 9.12 691.8
5 7 66.20 37.80 0.00 11.46 703.2
5 8 71.20 40.40 0.00 14.84 718.1
5 9 76.20 44.70 0.00 19.45 737.5
5 10 72.70 47.50 0.00 19.10 756.6
5 11 58.10 43.50 0.44 9.80 766.4
5 12 56.10 42.50 0.23 8.30 774.7
5 13 55.50 43.50 0.27 8.50 783.2
5 14 61.60 44.90 0.08 12.25 795.5
5 15 58.20 43.40 0.07 9.80 805.3
5 16 56.00 46.70 0.28 10.35 815.6
5 17 59.60 45.80 0.01 11.70 827.3
5 18 69.30 40.00 0.00 13.73 841.1
5 19 75.80 49.50 0.00 21.65 862.7 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 20 72.50 48.50 0.00 19.50 882.2
5 21 82.60 51.60 0.00 26.10 908.3
5 22 91.10 58.80 0.00 33.95 942.3
5 23 83.90 51.30 0.00 26.60 968.9 Peak female adult emergence
5 24 64.80 46.20 0.00 14.50 983.4
5 25 74.60 43.20 0.00 17.90 1001.3 Peak egg laying
5 26 83.00 50.10 0.00 25.55 1026.8
5 27 88.40 52.00 0.00 29.20 1056.0
5 28 83.60 53.90 0.00 27.75 1083.8
5 29 73.90 53.20 0.00 22.55 1106.3
5 30 62.00 53.50 0.00 16.75 1123.1
5 31 74.00 53.30 0.00 22.65 1145.7
6 1 70.40 56.60 0.03 22.50 1168.2
6 2 74.00 53.80 0.00 22.90 1191.1
6 3 65.40 53.70 0.00 18.55 1209.7
6 4 68.20 50.20 0.00 18.20 1227.9
6 5 78.00 43.00 0.00 19.50 1247.4
6 6 84.60 52.90 0.00 27.75 1275.1 Peak egg hatch
6 7 77.40 50.70 0.01 23.05 1298.2
6 8 63.70 52.50 0.17 17.10 1315.3
6 9 62.90 49.80 0.15 15.35 1330.6
6 10 60.20 49.40 0.66 13.80 1344.4
6 11 69.60 48.90 0.01 18.25 1362.7
6 12 61.00 48.90 0.00 13.95 1376.6
6 13 65.60 49.30 0.05 16.45 1393.1
6 14 64.90 46.00 0.00 14.45 1407.5
6 15 62.00 53.60 0.31 16.80 1424.3
6 16 65.60 56.40 0.00 20.00 1444.3
6 17 68.90 53.80 0.01 20.35 1464.7
6 18 79.10 58.60 0.00 27.85 1492.5
6 19 88.50 62.20 0.00 34.35 1526.9
6 20 76.70 52.50 0.00 23.60 1550.5
6 21 73.50 45.60 0.00 18.55 1569.0
6 22 82.10 54.40 0.00 27.25 1596.3
6 23 88.80 61.00 0.00 33.90 1630.2
6 24 93.60 60.40 0.00 36.00 1666.2
6 25 99.70 61.30 0.00 39.50 1705.7
6 26 78.50 56.80 0.00 26.65 1732.3
6 27 76.10 55.40 0.00 24.75 1757.1
6 28 74.60 49.80 0.00 21.20 1778.3
6 29 82.00 50.50 0.00 25.25 1803.5
6 30 87.40 56.60 0.00 31.00 1834.5
7 1 78.80 55.40 0.00 26.10 1860.6
7 2 83.40 50.90 0.00 26.15 1886.8
7 3 76.70 55.20 0.00 24.95 1911.7
7 4 84.60 50.70 0.00 26.65 1938.4
7 5 91.00 55.10 0.00 32.05 1970.4
7 6 89.60 52.40 0.00 30.00 2000.4
7 7 71.30 55.00 0.00 22.15 2022.6
7 8 86.10 49.00 0.00 26.55 2049.1
7 9 83.00 53.20 0.00 27.10 2076.2 Peak in density large larvae
7 10 77.30 53.30 0.00 24.30 2100.5
7 11 79.60 48.30 0.00 22.95 2123.5
7 12 83.20 52.70 0.00 26.95 2150.4
7 13 76.20 57.60 0.00 25.90 2176.3
7 14 86.50 51.60 0.00 28.05 2204.4
7 15 80.40 55.50 0.00 26.95 2231.3
7 16 73.00 47.10 0.00 19.05 2250.4
7 17 80.00 50.80 0.00 24.40 2274.8
7 18 83.50 51.50 0.00 26.50 2301.3
7 19 81.20 49.20 0.00 24.20 2325.5
7 20 74.00 51.60 0.00 21.80 2347.3
7 21 83.90 51.00 0.00 26.45 2373.7
7 22 90.80 56.80 0.00 32.80 2406.5
7 23 81.90 60.80 0.00 30.35 2436.9
7 24 86.50 56.40 0.00 30.45 2467.3
7 25 88.90 56.60 0.00 31.75 2499.1
7 26 85.80 59.10 0.00 31.45 2530.5
7 27 78.40 55.50 0.00 25.95 2556.5
7 28 81.70 53.50 0.00 26.60 2583.1
7 29 85.60 50.20 0.00 26.90 2610.0
7 30 88.20 58.30 0.00 32.25 2642.2
7 31 90.50 58.60 0.00 33.55 2675.8
8 1 96.90 61.00 0.00 37.95 2713.7
8 2 102.40 64.10 0.00 42.25 2756.0
8 3 104.40 62.00 0.00 42.20 2798.2
8 4 95.30 57.30 0.00 35.30 2833.5
8 5 87.80 55.70 0.00 30.75 2864.2
8 6 88.80 56.70 0.00 31.75 2896.0
8 7 91.90 60.80 0.00 35.35 2931.3
8 8 94.40 56.90 0.00 34.65 2966.0
8 9 95.50 59.20 0.00 36.35 3002.3
8 10 92.70 58.30 0.00 34.50 3036.8
8 11 87.50 60.90 0.00 33.20 3070.0
8 12 80.60 55.90 0.00 27.25 3097.3
8 13 72.80 57.40 0.11 24.10 3121.4
8 14 74.40 46.20 0.00 19.30 3140.7
8 15 81.50 50.10 0.00 24.80 3165.5
8 16 83.00 57.00 0.00 29.00 3194.5
8 17 79.70 56.80 0.00 27.25 3221.7
8 18 80.00 52.90 0.00 25.45 3247.2
8 19 77.80 55.90 0.00 25.85 3273.0
8 20 80.70 52.50 0.00 25.60 3298.6
8 21 92.50 56.60 0.00 33.55 3332.2
8 22 88.50 55.70 0.00 31.10 3363.3
8 23 85.20 57.90 0.00 30.55 3393.8
8 24 73.10 58.50 0.00 24.80 3418.6
8 25 79.90 48.40 0.00 23.15 3441.8
8 26 91.30 54.10 0.00 31.70 3473.5
8 27 94.90 53.70 0.00 33.30 3506.8
8 28 97.40 54.80 0.00 35.10 3541.9
8 29 89.10 56.50 0.00 31.80 3573.7
8 30 81.30 56.50 0.00 27.90 3601.6
8 31 83.40 59.70 0.00 30.55 3632.1
9 1 93.50 56.40 0.00 33.95 3666.1
9 2 99.30 55.10 0.00 36.20 3702.3
9 3 95.90 57.50 0.00 35.70 3738.0
9 4 92.90 58.30 0.00 34.60 3772.6
9 5 90.60 61.00 0.00 34.80 3807.4
9 6 81.50 60.30 0.00 29.90 3837.3
9 7 85.30 64.20 0.00 33.75 3871.0
9 8 74.60 62.30 0.01 27.45 3898.5
9 9 79.50 59.90 0.07 28.70 3927.2
9 10 79.50 54.40 0.01 25.95 3953.1
9 11 93.40 49.90 0.00 30.65 3983.8
9 12 86.30 57.50 0.00 30.90 4014.7
9 13 75.70 49.60 0.00 21.65 4036.3
9 14 75.50 48.20 0.00 20.85 4057.2
9 15 80.00 43.20 0.00 20.60 4077.8
9 16 76.50 48.30 0.00 21.40 4099.2
9 17 63.90 48.30 0.06 15.10 4114.3
9 18 62.60 50.90 0.44 15.75 4130.0
9 19 64.10 50.40 0.39 16.25 4146.3
9 20 61.80 46.20 0.78 13.00 4159.3
9 21 63.90 45.00 0.27 13.45 4172.7
9 22 67.60 42.60 0.01 14.10 4186.8
9 23 69.50 46.80 0.00 17.15 4204.0
9 24 75.00 45.00 0.00 19.00 4223.0
9 25 65.40 53.00 0.00 18.20 4241.2
9 26 78.40 53.50 0.00 24.95 4266.1
9 27 84.40 53.80 0.00 28.10 4294.2
9 28 86.50 50.90 0.00 27.70 4321.9
9 29 67.60 46.50 0.12 16.05 4338.0
9 30 65.10 42.90 0.03 13.00 4351.0
10 1 66.80 43.00 0.02 13.90 4364.9
10 2 64.80 41.00 0.00 11.90 4376.8
10 3 69.10 43.20 0.00 15.15 4391.9
10 4 70.50 36.70 0.00 13.26 4405.2
10 5 74.70 36.80 0.00 15.35 4420.5
10 6 73.10 38.20 0.00 14.99 4435.5
10 7 64.80 47.70 0.03 15.25 4450.8
10 8 63.70 39.30 0.01 10.69 4461.4
10 9 68.20 34.60 0.00 11.61 4473.1
10 10 55.00 37.50 0.06 5.93 4479.0
10 11 59.40 37.80 0.17 8.13 4487.1
10 12 57.50 39.70 0.26 7.75 4494.9
10 13 58.00 37.00 0.05 7.26 4502.1
10 14 59.60 31.60 0.01 7.00 4509.1
10 15 67.60 35.00 0.00 11.41 4520.5
10 16 66.30 33.90 0.00 10.54 4531.1
10 17 55.10 38.90 0.02 6.33 4537.4
10 18 63.60 49.00 0.04 15.30 4552.7
10 19 58.10 48.70 0.92 12.40 4565.1
10 20 54.60 46.80 0.17 9.70 4574.8
10 21 59.70 45.20 2.39 11.45 4586.3
10 22 63.60 46.00 0.66 13.80 4600.1
10 23 66.80 41.60 0.01 13.20 4613.3
10 24 74.90 45.40 0.00 19.15 4632.4
10 25 63.40 39.40 0.00 10.58 4643.0
10 26 69.10 46.70 0.00 16.90 4659.9
10 27 74.30 45.30 0.00 18.80 4678.7
10 28 72.00 41.20 0.00 15.60 4694.3
10 29 59.60 43.00 0.01 10.30 4704.6
10 30 62.40 39.50 0.00 10.11 4714.7
10 31 63.00 31.50 0.00 8.54 4723.2
11 1 58.50 36.80 0.00 7.45 4730.7
11 2 55.00 39.60 0.11 6.48 4737.2
11 3 48.50 36.30 0.07 2.69 4739.9
11 4 46.60 35.50 0.21 1.79 4741.6
11 5 51.20 38.00 0.41 4.22 4745.9
11 6 45.00 36.50 0.00 1.23 4747.1
11 7 52.60 31.70 0.00 3.92 4751.0 Px Pn
11 8 48.40 40.00 0.00 3.35 4754.4 Px Pn
11 9 55.70 43.80 0.00 8.75 4763.1 Px Pn
11 10 52.30 44.30 0.04 7.30 4770.4
11 11 56.80 46.60 0.13 10.70 4781.1
11 12 57.10 48.10 0.27 11.60 4792.7
11 13 54.60 44.70 0.77 8.65 4801.4
11 14 54.80 43.20 0.04 8.00 4809.4
11 15 52.90 43.20 1.19 7.05 4816.4
11 16 47.00 40.80 0.57 2.92 4819.3
11 17 51.80 38.00 0.18 4.51 4823.8
11 18 50.20 37.90 0.00 3.73 4827.6
11 19 45.30 37.50 0.31 1.45 4829.0
11 20 55.70 43.10 1.14 8.40 4837.4
11 21 58.60 43.50 0.48 10.05 4847.5
11 22 61.80 55.20 0.24 17.50 4865.0
11 23 62.90 44.30 0.30 12.60 4877.6
11 24 54.40 38.00 0.01 5.75 4883.3
11 25 46.60 35.80 0.22 1.82 4885.1
11 26 48.40 39.80 0.30 3.29 4888.4
11 27 45.10 34.00 0.01 1.10 4889.5
11 28 45.50 41.40 0.43 2.45 4892.0
11 29 46.10 36.60 0.00 1.69 4893.7
11 30 44.20 36.50 0.16 0.92 4894.6
12 1 46.50 41.90 0.09 3.20 4897.8
12 2 46.40 40.50 0.34 2.51 4900.3
12 3 47.80 30.90 0.04 1.92 4902.2
12 4 45.70 32.10 0.00 1.22 4903.4
12 5 52.10 28.50 0.01 3.41 4906.9
12 6 53.80 34.10 0.00 4.75 4911.6
12 7 52.30 29.10 0.00 3.54 4915.2
12 8 46.50 26.50 0.00 1.26 4916.4
12 9 45.50 24.20 0.00 0.90 4917.3
12 10 45.20 23.90 0.00 0.81 4918.1
12 11 45.80 23.10 0.01 0.96 4919.1
12 12 43.20 23.30 0.00 0.31 4919.4
12 13 48.40 27.40 0.00 1.94 4921.3
12 14 43.90 27.30 0.00 0.52 4921.9
12 15 39.50 28.10 0.05 0.00 4921.9
12 16 39.20 30.30 0.01 0.00 4921.9
12 17 45.50 38.70 0.01 1.69 4923.5
12 18 47.30 44.00 0.02 4.65 4928.2
12 19 50.10 38.70 1.11 3.85 4932.0
12 20 46.20 29.40 0.02 1.27 4933.3
12 21 34.10 24.40 0.00 0.00 4933.3
12 22 36.60 31.20 0.24 0.00 4933.3
12 23 39.50 30.90 0.08 0.00 4933.3
12 24 32.50 29.60 0.00 0.00 4933.3
12 25 37.50 30.40 0.36 0.00 4933.3
12 26 35.00 28.60 0.00 0.00 4933.3
12 27 37.40 32.10 0.01 0.00 4933.3
12 28 47.80 37.10 0.77 2.49 4935.8
12 29 54.30 48.70 0.82 10.50 4946.3
12 30 51.70 33.00 0.02 3.68 4950.0
12 31 49.11 31.98 0.00 2.50 4952.5
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 FOGO PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2017 FOGO FOREST GROVE OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-19-17 | 863 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-23-17 | 969 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-25-17 | 1001 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-6-17 | 1275 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-9-17 | 2076 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?4021754)
