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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
No ending date, set to: default date 12 31
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2015 FOGO Agrimet FOREST GROVE OR Lat45.5531 Long:-123.0833 Elev:180
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 41.20 22.40 0.00 0.01 0.0 * START *
1 2 39.80 24.40 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 3 41.30 33.70 0.00 0.03 0.0
1 4 50.10 38.20 0.24 3.74 3.8
1 5 52.90 43.70 0.00 7.30 11.1
1 6 46.80 40.70 0.01 2.78 13.9
1 7 52.80 31.40 0.01 3.97 17.8
1 8 51.00 31.50 0.01 3.23 21.1
1 9 49.70 33.20 0.00 2.85 23.9
1 10 43.90 35.00 0.00 0.73 24.6
1 11 46.20 41.80 0.02 3.00 27.6
1 12 48.80 41.70 0.04 4.25 31.9
1 13 51.60 33.50 0.00 3.70 35.6
1 14 48.90 30.90 0.00 2.34 37.9
1 15 40.80 28.20 0.78 0.00 37.9
1 16 49.90 37.90 0.11 3.59 41.5
1 17 56.60 36.70 1.66 6.52 48.0
1 18 56.30 45.50 0.29 9.90 57.9
1 19 46.30 38.20 0.05 1.98 59.9
1 20 52.70 34.00 0.01 4.25 64.2
1 21 50.20 30.80 0.00 2.84 67.0
1 22 49.70 39.20 0.00 3.77 70.8
1 23 47.80 42.10 0.05 3.95 74.7
1 24 57.70 45.70 0.00 10.70 85.4
1 25 53.70 42.40 0.02 7.05 92.5
1 26 44.00 40.00 0.01 1.22 93.7
1 27 47.40 40.50 0.02 3.01 96.7
1 28 55.00 45.10 0.04 9.05 105.7
1 29 57.20 39.10 0.01 7.41 113.2
1 30 56.20 31.20 0.00 5.42 118.6
1 31 50.60 29.60 0.01 2.90 121.5
2 1 45.00 37.50 0.23 1.32 122.8
2 2 58.20 40.70 0.56 8.47 131.3
2 3 50.80 40.60 0.11 4.73 136.0
2 4 53.30 44.50 0.17 7.90 143.9
2 5 57.40 45.20 0.98 10.30 154.2
2 6 56.30 51.10 1.48 12.70 166.9
2 7 59.90 50.10 1.25 14.00 180.9
2 8 55.50 45.30 0.25 9.40 190.3
2 9 53.50 46.70 0.39 9.10 199.4
2 10 53.40 46.00 0.00 8.70 208.1
2 11 54.10 38.00 0.00 5.61 213.7
2 12 48.00 42.80 0.01 4.40 218.1
2 13 54.40 37.30 0.00 5.60 223.7
2 14 60.30 43.00 0.00 10.65 234.4
2 15 62.70 40.50 0.01 10.63 245.0
2 16 60.60 40.40 0.00 9.54 254.5
2 17 63.60 37.00 0.00 9.97 264.5
2 18 55.20 33.80 0.00 5.34 269.8
2 19 59.40 43.30 0.00 10.35 280.2
2 20 58.50 38.70 0.00 7.94 288.1
2 21 57.90 39.70 0.00 7.95 296.1
2 22 55.50 34.10 0.00 5.52 301.6
2 23 58.30 29.90 0.00 6.18 307.8
2 24 59.20 28.00 0.00 6.33 314.1
2 25 52.30 43.30 0.01 6.80 320.9
2 26 54.90 44.80 0.01 8.85 329.8
2 27 55.80 45.10 0.10 9.45 339.2
2 28 56.00 37.10 0.00 6.32 345.5
3 1 56.70 29.00 0.00 5.37 350.9
3 2 53.90 40.00 0.04 6.06 357.0
3 3 54.90 32.10 0.00 4.97 361.9
3 4 58.60 28.00 0.00 6.08 368.0
3 5 59.20 30.80 0.00 6.70 374.7
3 6 64.60 33.20 0.00 9.59 384.3
3 7 69.00 32.70 0.00 11.58 395.9
3 8 69.60 36.10 0.00 12.66 408.5
3 9 68.20 34.80 0.00 11.66 420.2
3 10 62.20 35.00 0.00 8.82 429.0
3 11 58.20 48.80 0.10 12.50 441.5
3 12 66.70 49.00 0.00 16.85 458.4
3 13 66.00 45.00 0.00 14.50 472.9
3 14 56.90 51.00 1.24 12.95 485.8
3 15 60.40 45.70 1.41 12.05 497.9
3 16 60.70 35.60 0.01 8.24 506.1
3 17 56.10 39.20 0.07 6.90 513.0
3 18 61.50 44.20 0.01 11.85 524.9
3 19 64.30 37.40 0.00 10.42 535.3
3 20 60.10 42.20 0.10 10.15 545.4
3 21 60.70 44.30 0.03 11.50 556.9
3 22 56.90 42.30 0.10 8.60 565.5
3 23 56.50 43.60 0.98 9.05 574.6
3 24 55.40 40.60 0.18 7.03 581.6
3 25 60.30 48.80 0.16 13.55 595.1
3 26 71.30 42.30 0.01 15.80 610.9
3 27 68.00 43.10 0.00 14.55 625.5
3 28 61.50 45.40 0.01 12.45 637.9
3 29 68.20 42.50 0.00 14.35 652.3
3 30 66.60 41.40 0.00 13.00 665.3
3 31 53.60 41.40 0.16 6.50 671.8
4 1 51.80 38.10 0.09 4.53 676.3
4 2 55.40 36.20 0.00 5.85 682.2
4 3 52.30 34.60 0.16 4.15 686.3
4 4 55.10 35.10 0.00 5.50 691.8
4 5 57.40 31.50 0.05 5.99 697.8
4 6 55.80 38.00 0.07 6.43 704.3
4 7 59.80 44.30 0.05 11.05 715.3
4 8 58.50 40.60 0.28 8.58 723.9
4 9 64.80 33.20 0.01 9.69 733.6
4 10 59.50 35.50 0.02 7.64 741.2
4 11 55.10 41.70 0.12 7.40 748.6
4 12 58.10 35.10 0.01 6.90 755.5
4 13 52.20 39.90 0.26 5.19 760.7
4 14 55.00 37.90 0.13 6.02 766.7
4 15 58.10 31.20 0.00 6.26 773.0
4 16 71.40 39.70 0.00 14.66 787.7
4 17 73.00 41.10 0.00 16.05 803.7
4 18 76.60 44.60 0.00 19.60 823.3
4 19 76.50 46.40 0.00 20.45 843.8
4 20 79.00 45.20 0.00 21.10 864.9 Peak pheromone trap catch
4 21 62.80 43.80 0.00 12.30 877.2
4 22 59.30 35.70 0.00 7.59 884.7
4 23 55.20 38.40 0.00 6.24 891.0 Vx
4 24 58.10 41.70 0.05 8.90 899.9
4 25 60.80 39.90 0.03 9.46 909.3
4 26 56.70 37.90 0.09 6.84 916.2
4 27 81.20 52.50 0.00 25.85 942.0
4 28 63.60 44.10 0.04 12.85 954.9 Peak female adult emergence
4 29 64.60 37.60 0.02 10.62 965.5
4 30 69.20 38.20 0.00 13.06 978.6
5 1 72.10 50.70 0.00 20.40 999.0
5 2 70.10 43.50 0.00 15.80 1014.8 Peak egg laying
5 3 76.40 39.90 0.00 17.23 1032.0
5 4 66.10 43.20 0.00 13.65 1045.6
5 5 63.00 44.50 0.00 12.75 1058.4
5 6 62.20 45.20 0.07 12.70 1071.1
5 7 70.20 40.80 0.00 14.51 1085.6
5 8 79.90 44.20 0.00 21.05 1106.7
5 9 83.50 44.80 0.00 23.15 1129.8
5 10 71.70 49.40 0.00 19.55 1149.4
5 11 60.70 49.80 0.12 14.25 1163.6
5 12 56.50 48.30 0.35 11.40 1175.0
5 13 59.90 46.60 0.01 12.25 1187.3
5 14 70.10 43.50 0.00 15.80 1203.1
5 15 62.60 48.50 0.00 14.55 1217.6
5 16 60.80 48.20 0.00 13.50 1231.1
5 17 70.50 51.50 0.00 20.00 1251.1
5 18 77.10 49.00 0.00 22.05 1273.2 Peak egg hatch
5 19 65.10 51.00 0.00 17.05 1290.2
5 20 74.20 53.30 0.00 22.75 1313.0
5 21 74.90 54.80 0.23 23.85 1336.8
5 22 60.90 53.30 0.00 16.10 1352.9
5 23 63.90 53.30 0.01 17.60 1370.5
5 24 68.80 52.00 0.00 19.40 1389.9
5 25 67.70 49.70 0.00 17.70 1407.6
5 26 69.50 52.80 0.00 20.15 1427.8
5 27 80.00 49.90 0.00 23.95 1451.7
5 28 84.60 53.10 0.00 27.85 1479.6
5 29 83.20 55.10 0.00 28.15 1507.7
5 30 78.60 50.20 0.00 23.40 1531.1
5 31 84.00 54.20 0.00 28.10 1559.2
6 1 65.20 53.20 0.29 18.20 1577.4
6 2 62.60 53.30 0.11 16.95 1594.4
6 3 64.50 53.50 0.04 18.00 1612.4
6 4 72.50 48.40 0.00 19.45 1631.8
6 5 83.90 53.90 0.00 27.90 1659.7
6 6 87.40 59.30 0.00 32.35 1692.1
6 7 90.50 57.80 0.00 33.15 1725.2
6 8 91.50 60.80 0.00 35.15 1760.4
6 9 87.70 57.20 0.00 31.45 1791.8
6 10 78.50 46.30 0.00 21.40 1813.2
6 11 78.20 46.80 0.00 21.50 1834.7
6 12 70.40 50.90 0.00 19.65 1854.4
6 13 75.50 48.40 0.00 20.95 1875.3
6 14 85.80 45.70 0.00 24.75 1900.1
6 15 88.40 56.10 0.00 31.25 1931.3
6 16 76.20 49.00 0.00 21.60 1952.9
6 17 81.30 48.60 0.00 23.95 1976.9
6 18 80.60 56.70 0.00 27.65 2004.5
6 19 73.30 56.60 0.00 23.95 2028.5
6 20 79.90 50.00 0.00 23.95 2052.4
6 21 82.90 59.70 0.00 30.30 2082.7 Peak in density large larvae
6 22 79.20 49.90 0.00 23.55 2106.3
6 23 83.60 50.90 0.00 26.25 2132.5
6 24 85.20 58.30 0.00 30.75 2163.3
6 25 90.60 57.00 0.00 32.80 2196.1
6 26 93.20 67.10 0.00 39.15 2235.2
6 27 94.10 67.90 0.00 40.00 2275.2 Vx
6 28 85.60 65.50 0.00 34.55 2309.8
6 29 89.80 61.80 0.00 34.80 2344.6
6 30 90.50 59.40 0.00 33.95 2378.5
7 1 94.20 59.10 0.00 35.65 2414.2
7 2 95.60 59.00 0.00 36.30 2450.5
7 3 95.40 59.40 0.00 36.40 2486.9
7 4 95.50 56.40 0.00 34.95 2521.8
7 5 95.00 61.50 0.00 37.25 2559.1
7 6 91.90 58.10 0.00 34.00 2593.1
7 7 90.00 57.30 0.00 32.65 2625.7
7 8 91.80 57.60 0.00 33.70 2659.4
7 9 88.70 59.20 0.00 32.95 2692.4
7 10 77.70 58.50 0.00 27.10 2719.5
7 11 71.00 60.70 0.00 24.85 2744.3
7 12 79.50 59.80 0.01 28.65 2773.0
7 13 80.30 60.90 0.00 29.60 2802.6
7 14 81.70 57.90 0.00 28.80 2831.4
7 15 80.10 55.30 0.00 26.70 2858.1
7 16 77.10 59.80 0.00 27.45 2885.5 Vn
7 17 85.90 52.90 0.00 28.40 2913.9
7 18 96.20 57.40 0.00 35.80 2949.7
7 19 94.80 61.40 0.00 37.10 2986.8
7 20 87.20 57.40 0.00 31.30 3018.1
7 21 75.60 56.70 0.00 25.15 3043.3
7 22 69.90 55.50 0.00 21.70 3065.0
7 23 80.80 55.30 0.00 27.05 3092.0
7 24 81.60 52.20 0.00 25.90 3117.9
7 25 68.80 57.40 0.26 22.10 3140.0
7 26 72.00 54.60 0.01 22.30 3162.3
7 27 75.20 47.90 0.00 20.55 3182.9
7 28 85.20 52.20 0.00 27.70 3210.6
7 29 97.40 60.30 0.00 37.85 3248.4
7 30 104.60 58.30 0.00 40.45 3288.9
7 31 100.20 59.60 0.00 38.90 3327.8
8 1 98.50 53.50 0.00 35.00 3362.8
8 2 80.90 59.80 0.00 29.35 3392.1
8 3 81.70 62.20 0.00 30.95 3423.1
8 4 81.00 55.60 0.00 27.30 3450.4
8 5 76.60 51.00 0.00 22.80 3473.2
8 6 78.90 50.80 0.00 23.85 3497.0
8 7 85.60 54.00 0.00 28.80 3525.8
8 8 79.70 54.80 0.00 26.25 3552.1
8 9 84.10 49.30 0.00 25.70 3577.8
8 10 83.80 60.80 0.00 31.30 3609.1
8 11 91.00 61.60 0.00 35.30 3644.4
8 12 89.20 62.20 0.00 34.70 3679.1
8 13 87.50 58.10 0.00 31.80 3710.9
8 14 72.50 59.30 0.11 24.90 3735.8
8 15 75.40 59.60 0.00 26.50 3762.3
8 16 83.00 52.50 0.00 26.75 3789.0
8 17 87.90 61.60 0.00 33.75 3822.8
8 18 97.30 65.80 0.00 40.55 3863.3
8 19 95.90 60.10 0.00 37.00 3900.3
8 20 80.30 56.50 0.00 27.40 3927.7
8 21 78.40 52.50 0.00 24.45 3952.2
8 22 83.60 51.70 0.00 26.65 3978.8
8 23 88.90 57.40 0.00 32.15 4011.0
8 24 83.20 56.50 0.00 28.85 4039.8
8 25 84.90 51.90 0.00 27.40 4067.2
8 26 88.10 50.10 0.00 28.10 4095.3
8 27 87.40 53.10 0.00 29.25 4124.6
8 28 78.00 59.70 0.02 27.85 4152.4
8 29 72.30 62.80 0.21 26.55 4179.0
8 30 72.00 58.00 0.67 24.00 4203.0
8 31 74.00 59.30 0.00 25.65 4228.6
9 1 73.00 56.60 0.07 23.80 4252.4
9 2 73.40 53.20 0.01 22.30 4274.7
9 3 64.20 43.50 0.04 12.85 4287.6
9 4 64.70 41.70 0.01 12.20 4299.8
9 5 67.60 44.30 0.02 14.95 4314.7
9 6 63.30 43.00 0.03 12.15 4326.9
9 7 74.50 51.60 0.00 22.05 4348.9
9 8 81.20 49.70 0.00 24.45 4373.4
9 9 83.20 57.90 0.00 29.55 4402.9
9 10 88.50 56.70 0.00 31.60 4434.5
9 11 96.40 54.80 0.00 34.60 4469.1
9 12 90.20 57.60 0.00 32.90 4502.0
9 13 72.80 51.40 0.00 21.10 4523.1
9 14 61.50 45.00 0.00 12.25 4535.4
9 15 62.30 41.10 0.00 10.70 4546.1
9 16 69.30 51.90 0.00 19.60 4565.7
9 17 69.80 52.50 0.35 20.15 4585.8
9 18 74.50 46.30 0.00 19.40 4605.2
9 19 78.80 48.30 0.00 22.55 4627.8
9 20 78.00 53.90 0.00 24.95 4652.7
9 21 69.10 53.60 0.00 20.35 4673.1
9 22 70.80 44.10 0.00 16.45 4689.5
9 23 74.10 39.30 0.00 15.86 4705.4
9 24 76.30 46.80 0.00 20.55 4725.9
9 25 64.60 57.50 0.26 20.05 4746.0
9 26 67.60 50.80 0.00 18.20 4764.2
9 27 70.50 45.00 0.00 16.75 4780.9
9 28 78.60 49.40 0.00 23.00 4803.9
9 29 81.10 43.90 0.00 21.50 4825.4
9 30 71.40 44.30 0.00 16.85 4842.3
10 1 78.50 44.20 0.00 20.35 4862.6
10 2 64.10 45.10 0.00 13.60 4876.2
10 3 70.10 44.70 0.00 16.40 4892.6
10 4 78.90 45.50 0.00 21.20 4913.8
10 5 85.00 48.00 0.00 25.50 4939.3
10 6 75.60 45.00 0.00 19.30 4958.6
10 7 63.40 56.10 0.08 18.75 4977.4
10 8 73.80 52.70 0.00 22.25 4999.6
10 9 72.30 48.10 0.01 19.20 5018.8
10 10 68.20 54.40 0.25 20.30 5039.1
10 11 64.00 48.50 0.00 15.25 5054.4
10 12 66.00 43.90 0.01 13.95 5068.3
10 13 70.10 44.90 0.00 16.50 5084.8
10 14 73.70 43.30 0.00 17.50 5102.3
10 15 79.10 48.10 0.00 22.60 5124.9
10 16 74.10 46.70 0.00 19.40 5144.3
10 17 66.30 55.30 0.07 19.80 5164.1
10 18 61.60 56.10 0.36 17.85 5182.0
10 19 64.60 52.10 0.09 17.35 5199.3
10 20 65.30 47.40 0.00 15.35 5214.7
10 21 64.10 41.80 0.01 11.95 5226.6
10 22 65.10 43.70 0.00 13.40 5240.0
10 23 63.40 39.30 0.00 10.54 5250.6
10 24 67.60 45.50 0.00 15.55 5266.1
10 25 59.80 49.80 1.06 13.80 5279.9
10 26 60.50 46.20 0.08 12.35 5292.3
10 27 58.40 38.70 0.00 7.89 5300.1
10 28 58.90 49.90 0.33 13.40 5313.5
10 29 64.70 52.60 0.02 17.65 5331.2
10 30 65.00 55.20 0.30 19.10 5350.3
10 31 64.90 49.80 1.45 16.35 5366.6
11 1 60.90 49.70 0.25 14.30 5380.9
11 2 57.50 41.30 0.11 8.40 5389.3
11 3 56.50 34.60 0.01 6.07 5395.4
11 4 45.00 32.10 0.00 0.98 5396.4
11 5 51.10 41.70 0.07 5.40 5401.8
11 6 58.50 42.20 0.00 9.35 5411.1
11 7 51.40 40.70 0.51 5.07 5416.2
11 8 50.10 45.80 0.15 6.95 5423.2
11 9 52.20 38.50 0.01 4.81 5428.0
11 10 44.40 31.80 0.01 0.77 5428.7
11 11 53.30 41.00 0.22 6.15 5434.9
11 12 48.70 37.70 0.15 2.99 5437.9
11 13 56.60 49.00 0.27 11.80 5449.7
11 14 58.30 53.00 0.02 14.65 5464.3
11 15 56.10 36.30 0.25 6.20 5470.5
11 16 46.40 32.60 0.70 1.50 5472.0
11 17 57.90 44.80 1.10 10.35 5482.4
11 18 48.30 36.30 0.29 2.60 5485.0
11 19 47.80 39.20 0.46 2.86 5487.8
11 20 50.60 33.00 0.00 3.21 5491.1
11 21 51.20 30.80 0.00 3.25 5494.3
11 22 46.20 26.50 0.00 1.17 5495.5
11 23 40.40 27.40 0.26 0.00 5495.5
11 24 42.50 37.20 0.26 0.35 5495.8
11 25 45.90 31.00 0.00 1.24 5497.1
11 26 49.20 24.60 0.00 2.08 5499.1
11 27 49.50 23.70 0.00 2.15 5501.3
11 28 49.40 26.20 0.00 2.23 5503.5
11 29 43.60 22.40 0.00 0.39 5503.9
11 30 34.10 20.20 0.02 0.00 5503.9
12 1 43.60 33.10 0.83 0.56 5504.5
12 2 42.10 35.20 0.52 0.19 5504.7
12 3 52.60 38.60 0.55 5.03 5509.7
12 4 49.80 39.00 0.24 3.77 5513.5
12 5 46.20 39.30 0.57 2.12 5515.6
12 6 54.10 44.70 0.74 8.40 5524.0
12 7 61.90 49.00 2.36 14.45 5538.4
12 8 60.00 55.40 1.43 16.70 5555.1
12 9 56.50 45.30 0.43 9.90 5565.0
12 10 53.00 43.10 1.11 7.05 5572.1
12 11 45.80 43.10 0.30 3.45 5575.5
12 12 50.80 39.20 0.83 4.31 5579.8
12 13 46.50 40.10 0.54 2.45 5582.3
12 14 42.30 36.20 0.15 0.26 5582.5
12 15 40.70 36.20 0.02 0.00 5582.5
12 16 43.50 40.00 0.13 0.98 5583.5
12 17 44.90 39.30 1.87 1.51 5585.0
12 18 52.80 40.50 0.31 5.69 5590.7
12 19 46.50 35.90 0.04 1.79 5592.5
12 20 46.40 41.30 0.24 2.85 5595.4
12 21 49.50 40.10 0.93 3.92 5599.3
12 22 43.80 36.30 0.33 0.76 5600.0
12 23 43.50 36.30 0.70 0.65 5600.7
12 24 38.90 33.50 0.14 0.00 5600.7
12 25 38.60 29.90 0.01 0.00 5600.7
12 26 39.60 34.50 0.01 0.00 5600.7
12 27 36.00 32.30 0.43 0.00 5600.7
12 28 39.00 33.70 0.19 0.00 5600.7
12 29 41.10 37.10 0.20 0.01 5600.7
12 30 42.00 28.80 0.00 0.12 5600.8
12 31 37.62 27.38 0.00 0.00 5600.8
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 FOGO PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2015 FOGO FOREST GROVE OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME Date | DDs | Event |
4-20-15 | 865 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
4-28-15 | 955 | Peak female adult emergence |
5-2-15 | 1015 | Peak egg laying |
5-18-15 | 1273 | Peak egg hatch |
6-21-15 | 2083 | Peak in density large larvae |