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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
No ending date, set to: default date 12 31
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2020 CRVO Agrimet CORVALLIS OR Lat44.6342 Long-123.1897 Elev:230
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 54.60 46.10 0.15 9.35 9.4 * START *
1 2 51.10 42.00 0.00 5.55 14.9
1 3 56.70 38.30 0.10 6.95 21.8
1 4 49.50 38.20 0.23 3.46 25.3
1 5 49.40 41.50 0.39 4.45 29.8
1 6 49.10 43.50 0.49 5.30 35.1
1 7 53.00 46.00 0.20 8.50 43.6
1 8 47.10 37.40 0.24 2.22 45.8
1 9 43.40 34.10 0.00 0.53 46.3
1 10 48.20 38.00 0.46 2.81 49.1
1 11 46.60 41.00 0.44 2.80 51.9
1 12 47.20 37.80 0.66 2.32 54.2
1 13 40.20 36.60 0.46 0.00 54.2
1 14 40.90 29.30 0.27 0.00 54.2
1 15 47.70 28.30 0.37 1.74 56.0
1 16 44.90 30.50 0.17 0.89 56.9
1 17 42.10 30.80 0.16 0.15 57.0
1 18 49.60 38.70 0.12 3.61 60.6
1 19 50.80 43.80 0.00 6.30 66.9
1 20 47.00 42.80 0.00 3.90 70.8
1 21 48.60 42.50 0.54 4.55 75.4
1 22 52.40 44.10 0.16 7.25 82.6
1 23 57.70 50.90 0.48 13.30 95.9
1 24 55.50 46.60 0.09 10.05 106.0
1 25 57.40 46.90 0.29 11.15 117.1
1 26 54.90 45.90 0.15 9.40 126.5
1 27 52.00 40.80 0.44 5.41 131.9
1 28 51.80 46.00 0.80 7.90 139.8
1 29 48.50 45.50 0.38 6.00 145.8
1 30 54.60 44.60 0.01 8.60 154.4
1 31 61.80 53.40 0.00 16.60 171.0
2 1 56.90 40.40 0.10 7.70 178.7
2 2 45.80 31.70 0.00 1.23 180.0
2 3 46.00 29.30 0.01 1.20 181.2
2 4 42.70 27.00 0.00 0.24 181.4
2 5 52.20 40.00 0.11 5.22 186.6
2 6 58.20 47.80 0.00 12.00 198.6
2 7 55.70 46.10 0.10 9.90 208.5
2 8 48.40 34.80 0.03 2.47 211.0
2 9 46.50 31.50 0.00 1.47 212.5
2 10 47.10 30.70 0.00 1.65 214.1
2 11 47.00 29.20 0.01 1.53 215.7
2 12 48.30 31.20 0.00 2.13 217.8
2 13 44.50 35.50 0.10 0.97 218.7
2 14 49.90 34.80 0.01 3.12 221.9
2 15 46.60 40.00 0.66 2.47 224.3
2 16 51.50 38.80 0.19 4.55 228.9
2 17 50.00 31.80 0.00 2.85 231.7
2 18 49.60 33.20 0.00 2.81 234.5
2 19 56.40 35.10 0.00 6.11 240.6
2 20 54.30 33.50 0.00 4.89 245.5
2 21 58.40 27.30 0.00 5.91 251.4
2 22 56.30 27.50 0.00 5.04 256.5
2 23 50.20 38.00 0.08 3.75 260.2
2 24 51.20 33.20 0.00 3.49 263.7
2 25 56.40 29.60 0.00 5.31 269.0
2 26 57.10 38.60 0.01 7.22 276.3
2 27 60.00 31.80 0.00 7.21 283.5
2 28 53.50 31.80 0.08 4.32 287.8
2 29 46.80 33.30 0.23 1.69 289.5
3 1 48.90 29.50 0.01 2.24 291.7
3 2 50.70 36.30 0.00 3.68 295.4
3 3 60.70 44.90 0.00 11.80 307.2
3 4 56.00 39.40 0.00 6.91 314.1
3 5 61.20 32.10 0.00 7.81 321.9
3 6 48.30 41.30 0.25 3.80 325.7
3 7 46.50 32.40 0.14 1.52 327.3
3 8 47.80 31.70 0.00 1.97 329.2
3 9 54.90 29.60 0.00 4.67 333.9
3 10 63.30 27.00 0.00 8.00 341.9
3 11 56.70 31.80 0.01 5.72 347.6
3 12 54.10 32.00 0.00 4.60 352.2
3 13 40.70 34.30 0.39 0.00 352.2
3 14 48.10 32.90 0.32 2.17 354.4
3 15 52.00 32.10 0.03 3.71 358.1
3 16 59.30 33.70 0.01 7.21 365.3
3 17 60.70 32.20 0.00 7.60 372.9
3 18 57.50 32.10 0.00 6.12 379.0
3 19 63.30 29.50 0.00 8.36 387.4
3 20 63.80 32.60 0.00 9.10 396.5
3 21 60.00 33.30 0.00 7.46 404.0
3 22 63.20 30.50 0.00 8.47 412.4
3 23 51.80 41.60 0.15 5.70 418.1
3 24 47.90 36.90 0.32 2.51 420.6
3 25 50.10 33.20 0.01 3.02 423.7
3 26 51.50 28.30 0.01 3.16 426.8
3 27 50.50 38.40 0.16 3.97 430.8
3 28 53.00 46.00 0.22 8.50 439.3
3 29 58.00 47.20 0.16 11.60 450.9
3 30 50.20 43.20 0.67 5.70 456.6
3 31 50.70 38.30 0.29 4.05 460.6
4 1 48.20 37.10 0.22 2.67 463.3
4 2 51.50 33.50 0.05 3.65 467.0
4 3 50.60 29.10 0.02 2.87 469.8
4 4 45.60 35.40 0.11 1.38 471.2
4 5 62.30 43.00 0.03 11.65 482.9
4 6 59.40 42.40 0.00 9.90 492.8
4 7 61.00 34.90 0.00 8.23 501.0
4 8 67.50 37.80 0.00 12.10 513.1
4 9 75.00 42.10 0.00 17.55 530.6
4 10 70.70 36.80 0.00 13.39 544.0
4 11 62.50 40.20 0.00 10.41 554.4
4 12 64.00 35.50 0.00 9.80 564.2
4 13 64.40 37.30 0.00 10.44 574.7
4 14 68.90 32.90 0.00 11.57 586.2
4 15 61.50 38.50 0.00 9.35 595.6
4 16 69.90 44.40 0.00 16.15 611.7
4 17 74.10 42.30 0.00 17.20 628.9
4 18 53.20 41.20 0.26 6.20 635.1
4 19 61.70 43.60 0.01 11.65 646.8
4 20 69.50 34.60 0.00 12.24 659.0
4 21 58.50 44.10 0.00 10.30 669.3
4 22 60.40 44.20 0.53 11.30 680.6
4 23 64.20 47.90 0.00 15.05 695.7
4 24 64.30 49.90 0.26 16.10 711.8
4 25 65.00 43.80 0.07 13.40 725.2
4 26 67.80 34.70 0.15 11.44 736.6
4 27 66.10 48.30 0.02 16.20 752.8
4 28 73.10 48.50 0.00 19.80 772.6
4 29 67.40 49.40 0.00 17.40 790.0
4 30 63.90 43.60 0.00 12.75 802.8
5 1 59.80 35.80 0.09 7.85 810.6
5 2 58.10 42.40 0.45 9.25 819.9
5 3 59.50 40.20 0.08 8.92 828.8
5 4 68.50 37.70 0.01 12.56 841.4
5 5 71.00 45.30 0.00 17.15 858.5 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 6 62.90 44.60 0.15 12.75 871.3
5 7 71.70 44.20 0.00 16.95 888.2
5 8 81.50 55.90 0.00 27.70 915.9
5 9 82.80 56.90 0.00 28.85 944.8
5 10 81.50 48.80 0.00 24.15 968.9 Peak female adult emergence
5 11 65.00 49.00 0.00 16.00 984.9
5 12 61.90 48.30 0.09 14.10 999.0
5 13 60.90 48.50 0.09 13.70 1012.7 Peak egg laying
5 14 59.10 49.10 0.48 13.10 1025.8
5 15 68.50 48.40 0.00 17.45 1043.3
5 16 64.90 51.60 0.21 17.25 1060.5
5 17 67.50 50.60 0.04 18.05 1078.6
5 18 60.60 50.90 0.66 14.75 1093.3
5 19 60.40 44.90 0.12 11.65 1105.0
5 20 58.50 50.40 0.00 13.45 1118.4
5 21 59.20 45.80 0.02 11.50 1129.9
5 22 60.80 40.90 0.19 9.85 1139.8
5 23 63.80 36.40 0.00 9.91 1149.7
5 24 73.30 42.80 0.00 17.05 1166.7
5 25 69.20 48.10 0.00 17.65 1184.4
5 26 73.60 50.70 0.00 21.15 1205.5
5 27 80.10 50.50 0.00 24.30 1229.8
5 28 86.50 51.30 0.00 27.90 1257.7
5 29 81.40 49.80 0.00 24.60 1282.3 Peak egg hatch
5 30 59.20 52.10 0.38 14.65 1297.0
5 31 64.20 50.60 0.01 16.40 1313.4
6 1 70.30 43.10 0.00 15.70 1329.1
6 2 77.90 46.50 0.00 21.20 1350.3
6 3 74.00 47.60 0.00 19.80 1370.1
6 4 72.10 46.00 0.00 18.05 1388.1
6 5 69.90 53.20 0.00 20.55 1408.7
6 6 60.70 44.20 0.13 11.45 1420.1
6 7 63.50 45.80 0.08 13.65 1433.8
6 8 64.10 47.40 0.10 14.75 1448.5
6 9 64.60 50.80 0.25 16.70 1465.2
6 10 76.60 56.00 0.00 25.30 1490.5
6 11 73.80 55.10 0.02 23.45 1514.0
6 12 59.70 53.50 0.18 15.60 1529.6
6 13 61.90 50.30 0.08 15.10 1544.7
6 14 68.00 49.20 0.03 17.60 1562.3
6 15 62.70 53.90 0.36 17.30 1579.6
6 16 62.60 50.90 0.46 15.75 1595.3
6 17 72.00 46.50 0.00 18.25 1613.6
6 18 79.20 50.20 0.00 23.70 1637.3
6 19 83.70 50.70 0.00 26.20 1663.5
6 20 70.10 55.30 0.13 21.70 1685.2
6 21 75.00 53.70 0.00 23.35 1708.5
6 22 84.00 53.60 0.00 27.80 1736.3
6 23 90.50 59.70 0.00 34.10 1770.4
6 24 77.70 55.10 0.00 25.40 1795.8
6 25 82.10 53.30 0.00 26.70 1822.5
6 26 87.90 56.30 0.00 31.10 1853.6
6 27 72.60 56.00 0.00 23.30 1876.9
6 28 69.00 55.00 0.00 21.00 1897.9
6 29 73.80 47.40 0.00 19.60 1917.5
6 30 70.20 53.10 0.00 20.65 1938.2
7 1 68.90 51.30 0.00 19.10 1957.3
7 2 72.80 50.10 0.00 20.45 1977.7
7 3 73.90 46.40 0.00 19.15 1996.9
7 4 74.20 52.90 0.00 22.55 2019.4
7 5 74.00 52.30 0.00 22.15 2041.6
7 6 67.00 48.50 0.00 16.75 2058.3
7 7 70.70 53.90 0.00 21.30 2079.6 Peak in density large larvae
7 8 75.60 53.50 0.00 23.55 2103.2
7 9 78.00 49.50 0.00 22.75 2125.9
7 10 81.00 52.30 0.00 25.65 2151.6
7 11 76.50 47.90 0.00 21.20 2172.8
7 12 78.00 52.60 0.00 24.30 2197.1
7 13 80.90 52.10 0.00 25.50 2222.6
7 14 85.60 51.40 0.00 27.50 2250.1
7 15 89.60 56.00 0.00 31.80 2281.9
7 16 87.40 57.50 0.00 31.45 2313.3
7 17 80.00 53.20 0.00 25.60 2338.9
7 18 85.50 51.40 0.00 27.45 2366.4
7 19 91.30 56.50 0.00 32.90 2399.3
7 20 92.70 55.20 0.00 32.95 2432.2
7 21 93.10 55.00 0.00 33.05 2465.3 Px
7 22 87.30 58.30 0.00 31.80 2497.1 Px Pn
7 23 82.80 53.50 0.00 27.15 2524.2 Px Pn
7 24 73.00 56.30 0.00 23.65 2547.9
7 25 80.50 50.70 0.00 24.60 2572.5
7 26 97.70 58.70 0.00 37.20 2609.7
7 27 93.50 58.60 0.00 35.05 2644.7
7 28 90.20 55.30 0.00 31.75 2676.5
7 29 93.30 59.00 0.00 35.15 2711.6
7 30 95.20 56.00 0.00 34.60 2746.2
7 31 85.40 53.50 0.00 28.45 2774.7
8 1 84.00 55.80 0.00 28.90 2803.6
8 2 85.80 52.30 0.00 28.05 2831.6
8 3 84.30 51.10 0.00 26.70 2858.3
8 4 87.30 54.50 0.00 29.90 2888.2
8 5 83.30 54.30 0.00 27.80 2916.0
8 6 71.10 51.40 0.12 20.25 2936.3
8 7 78.00 45.80 0.00 20.90 2957.2
8 8 79.00 51.30 0.00 24.15 2981.3
8 9 85.00 49.70 0.00 26.35 3007.7
8 10 92.50 57.70 0.00 34.10 3041.8
8 11 83.10 46.20 0.00 23.65 3065.4
8 12 75.20 49.60 0.00 21.40 3086.8
8 13 79.50 50.00 0.00 23.75 3110.6
8 14 88.50 55.60 0.00 31.05 3141.6
8 15 98.10 58.80 0.00 37.45 3179.1
8 16 90.80 61.50 0.00 35.15 3214.2
8 17 93.20 55.40 0.00 33.30 3247.5
8 18 86.70 58.00 0.00 31.35 3278.9
8 19 88.60 51.50 0.00 29.05 3307.9
8 20 83.20 58.40 0.00 29.80 3337.7
8 21 79.20 62.10 0.00 29.65 3367.4
8 22 79.30 54.40 0.00 25.85 3393.2
8 23 83.70 52.10 0.00 26.90 3420.1
8 24 82.20 52.20 0.00 26.20 3446.3
8 25 81.70 53.50 0.00 26.60 3472.9
8 26 84.10 52.40 0.00 27.25 3500.2
8 27 83.90 46.20 0.00 24.05 3524.2
8 28 85.30 52.10 0.00 27.70 3551.9
8 29 80.00 52.30 0.00 25.15 3577.1
8 30 76.90 45.80 0.00 20.35 3597.4
8 31 78.00 54.90 0.00 25.45 3622.9
9 1 89.70 56.90 0.00 32.30 3655.2
9 2 92.90 60.70 0.00 35.80 3691.0
9 3 95.50 59.00 0.00 36.25 3727.2
9 4 81.60 52.30 0.00 25.95 3753.2
9 5 77.40 49.00 0.00 22.20 3775.4
9 6 90.20 53.80 0.00 31.00 3806.4
9 7 88.00 53.60 0.00 29.80 3836.2
9 8 77.30 65.50 0.00 30.40 3866.6
9 9 81.20 60.10 0.00 29.65 3896.2
9 10 66.70 49.60 0.00 17.15 3913.4
9 11 70.30 43.90 0.00 16.10 3929.5
9 12 62.50 44.20 0.00 12.35 3941.8
9 13 65.10 44.00 0.00 13.55 3955.4
9 14 75.60 48.50 0.00 21.05 3976.4
9 15 76.80 55.40 0.00 25.10 4001.5
9 16 75.90 49.20 0.00 21.55 4023.1
9 17 74.30 53.50 0.21 22.90 4046.0
9 18 66.20 56.10 1.11 20.15 4066.1
9 19 72.60 54.30 0.00 22.45 4088.6
9 20 75.20 49.40 0.00 21.30 4109.9
9 21 74.50 50.20 0.00 21.35 4131.2
9 22 71.50 54.30 0.00 21.90 4153.1
9 23 75.80 59.60 0.42 26.70 4179.8
9 24 68.70 54.80 0.03 20.75 4200.6
9 25 61.10 54.30 0.30 16.70 4217.3
9 26 69.20 51.20 0.02 19.20 4236.5
9 27 73.20 47.40 0.00 19.30 4255.8
9 28 83.50 58.90 0.00 30.20 4286.0
9 29 84.30 47.60 0.00 24.95 4310.9
9 30 77.70 47.90 0.00 21.80 4332.7
10 1 75.70 50.40 0.00 22.05 4354.8
10 2 78.80 52.10 0.01 24.45 4379.2
10 3 76.90 48.00 0.00 21.45 4400.7
10 4 64.70 49.20 0.01 15.95 4416.6
10 5 71.20 53.60 0.00 21.40 4438.0
10 6 77.40 46.90 0.01 21.15 4459.2
10 7 73.40 47.50 0.00 19.45 4478.6
10 8 69.30 49.30 0.00 18.30 4496.9
10 9 71.40 49.50 0.03 19.45 4516.4
10 10 61.70 52.00 0.77 15.85 4532.2
10 11 59.60 51.70 0.40 14.65 4546.9
10 12 65.40 53.80 0.03 18.60 4565.5
10 13 65.40 49.60 0.31 16.50 4582.0
10 14 61.50 46.40 0.01 12.95 4594.9
10 15 62.70 43.50 0.00 12.10 4607.0
10 16 70.30 40.70 0.00 14.51 4621.5
10 17 68.60 51.70 0.00 19.15 4640.7
10 18 67.50 52.80 0.00 19.15 4659.8
10 19 65.40 45.60 0.00 14.50 4674.3
10 20 64.40 46.80 0.00 14.60 4688.9
10 21 59.70 41.40 0.00 9.55 4698.5
10 22 55.80 32.50 0.00 5.42 4703.9
10 23 58.90 32.30 0.00 6.79 4710.7
10 24 58.80 40.60 0.00 8.72 4719.4
10 25 50.60 33.90 0.00 3.31 4722.7
10 26 54.60 27.90 0.00 4.38 4727.1
10 27 59.10 26.50 0.00 6.12 4733.2
10 28 65.30 33.30 0.00 9.94 4743.2
10 29 52.90 35.90 0.01 4.62 4747.8
10 30 60.20 40.40 0.01 9.34 4757.1
10 31 57.70 37.90 0.01 7.33 4764.5
11 1 62.30 32.30 0.00 8.35 4772.8
11 2 64.50 32.50 0.00 9.41 4782.2
11 3 64.50 35.70 0.10 10.08 4792.3
11 4 68.20 56.70 0.00 21.45 4813.8
11 5 61.90 51.20 0.70 15.55 4829.3
11 6 53.50 41.20 0.02 6.35 4835.7
11 7 52.10 31.70 0.03 3.71 4839.4
11 8 47.80 30.00 0.00 1.86 4841.2
11 9 44.80 25.20 0.00 0.72 4842.0
11 10 49.00 38.40 0.33 3.26 4845.2
11 11 53.80 32.40 0.01 4.52 4849.7
11 12 48.10 28.90 0.05 1.91 4851.7
11 13 54.60 42.60 1.57 7.60 4859.3
11 14 49.20 39.20 1.16 3.53 4862.8
11 15 55.60 45.50 0.03 9.55 4872.3
11 16 58.70 46.40 0.51 11.55 4883.9
11 17 57.20 44.80 0.26 10.00 4893.9
11 18 51.90 43.50 0.78 6.70 4900.6
11 19 52.90 36.30 0.18 4.69 4905.3
11 20 40.00 30.80 0.01 0.00 4905.3
11 21 39.00 36.30 0.01 0.00 4905.3
11 22 43.30 34.40 0.04 0.51 4905.8
11 23 50.40 36.30 0.06 3.54 4909.3
11 24 51.20 35.90 0.21 3.85 4913.2
11 25 49.10 40.60 0.24 3.89 4917.1
11 26 51.00 33.40 0.01 3.43 4920.5
11 27 38.10 33.30 0.01 0.00 4920.5
11 28 44.30 36.10 0.00 0.93 4921.4
11 29 42.10 37.90 0.01 0.25 4921.7
11 30 53.10 33.80 0.37 4.40 4926.1
12 1 45.40 30.80 0.01 1.06 4927.1
12 2 48.00 28.30 0.01 1.84 4929.0
12 3 50.60 30.00 0.00 2.94 4931.9
12 4 49.10 27.60 0.00 2.20 4934.1
12 5 45.90 27.60 0.14 1.11 4935.2
12 6 55.80 40.40 0.03 7.15 4942.4
12 7 45.90 39.40 0.00 2.00 4944.4
12 8 53.40 34.50 0.06 4.63 4949.0
12 9 55.00 36.80 0.04 5.78 4954.8
12 10 43.70 38.20 0.13 0.85 4955.6
12 11 44.50 38.30 0.29 1.19 4956.8
12 12 42.40 35.90 0.00 0.28 4957.1
12 13 51.30 38.90 0.69 4.47 4961.6
12 14 50.00 38.70 0.06 3.80 4965.4
12 15 49.40 43.20 0.04 5.30 4970.7 Px
12 16 50.20 42.40 0.71 5.30 4976.0
12 17 50.10 38.90 0.04 3.89 4979.9
12 18 49.90 39.00 0.09 3.82 4983.7
12 19 52.60 48.00 0.77 9.30 4993.0
12 20 54.00 46.90 1.92 9.45 5002.4
12 21 58.90 44.60 0.22 10.75 5013.2
12 22 49.40 32.50 0.02 2.66 5015.8
12 23 43.40 31.60 0.01 0.47 5016.3
12 24 34.10 31.10 0.00 0.00 5016.3
12 25 48.80 32.10 0.47 2.39 5018.7
12 26 49.40 43.20 0.20 5.30 5024.0
12 27 49.90 33.90 0.01 3.01 5027.0
12 28 46.30 30.00 0.00 1.33 5028.3
12 29 35.90 26.90 0.01 0.00 5028.3
12 30 46.80 36.10 0.40 1.93 5030.3
12 31 51.30 44.60 0.00 6.95 5037.2 Vx Vn
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 CRVO PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2020 CRVO CORVALLIS OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-5-20 | 859 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-10-20 | 969 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-13-20 | 1013 | Peak egg laying |
| 5-29-20 | 1282 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-7-20 | 2080 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?1044707)
