|
Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
No ending date, set to: default date 12 31
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2017 CRVO Agrimet CORVALLIS OR Lat44.6342 Long-123.1897 Elev:230
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 38.60 33.00 0.35 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 34.20 29.40 0.03 0.00 0.0
1 3 35.40 27.20 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 4 35.80 25.10 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 5 34.30 19.90 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 6 35.10 15.50 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 7 28.30 24.60 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 8 35.20 27.90 1.22 0.00 0.0
1 9 40.20 35.30 0.62 0.00 0.0
1 10 38.80 33.30 1.04 0.00 0.0
1 11 35.50 30.80 0.10 0.00 0.0
1 12 33.40 26.20 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 13 30.20 20.50 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 14 31.30 20.50 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 15 33.10 20.90 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 16 38.40 24.20 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 17 49.30 27.40 0.49 2.26 2.3
1 18 53.90 44.60 0.47 8.25 10.5
1 19 50.20 39.70 0.11 4.15 14.7
1 20 51.60 37.40 0.12 4.29 18.9
1 21 46.80 37.80 0.44 2.14 21.1
1 22 50.10 36.70 0.16 3.47 24.6
1 23 51.00 31.00 0.01 3.18 27.7
1 24 47.20 28.60 0.00 1.58 29.3
1 25 44.60 36.30 0.01 1.06 30.4
1 26 52.00 36.20 0.01 4.26 34.6
1 27 40.80 32.10 0.00 0.00 34.6
1 28 38.40 33.20 0.01 0.00 34.6
1 29 45.00 34.30 0.00 1.08 35.7
1 30 47.90 37.90 0.00 2.66 38.4
1 31 45.80 36.40 0.04 1.55 39.9
2 1 41.10 34.90 0.00 0.01 39.9
2 2 43.10 33.80 0.01 0.43 40.4
2 3 45.60 30.20 0.91 1.10 41.5
2 4 51.90 47.00 0.62 8.45 49.9
2 5 47.00 37.40 2.01 2.18 52.1
2 6 43.60 36.30 0.27 0.69 52.8
2 7 40.70 35.40 0.19 0.00 52.8
2 8 51.10 39.10 0.83 4.43 57.2
2 9 58.60 46.20 0.66 11.40 68.6
2 10 50.20 37.40 0.15 3.64 72.2
2 11 50.80 34.70 0.01 3.50 75.7
2 12 48.00 32.40 0.00 2.10 77.8
2 13 54.40 33.80 0.00 4.98 82.8
2 14 49.60 31.00 0.04 2.62 85.4
2 15 55.20 44.80 0.78 9.00 94.4
2 16 54.40 45.80 1.39 9.10 103.5
2 17 53.30 41.40 0.00 6.35 109.9
2 18 51.60 43.70 0.16 6.65 116.5
2 19 50.40 39.00 0.33 4.06 120.6
2 20 51.60 42.40 0.74 6.00 126.6
2 21 46.10 39.20 0.88 2.05 128.6
2 22 45.80 34.00 0.10 1.36 130.0
2 23 44.10 32.70 0.01 0.71 130.7
2 24 40.40 32.20 0.10 0.00 130.7
2 25 46.80 33.50 0.01 1.71 132.4
2 26 44.00 32.80 0.26 0.68 133.1
2 27 43.00 32.20 0.09 0.37 133.5
2 28 48.20 34.80 0.13 2.39 135.9
3 1 51.60 38.10 0.01 4.43 140.3
3 2 49.40 34.30 0.01 2.84 143.1
3 3 49.60 42.20 0.33 4.90 148.0
3 4 46.90 36.40 0.09 2.01 150.0
3 5 43.10 33.50 0.41 0.43 150.5
3 6 44.00 32.60 0.73 0.67 151.1
3 7 48.30 40.10 0.37 3.33 154.5
3 8 52.30 44.20 0.16 7.25 161.7
3 9 58.00 50.00 0.47 13.00 174.7
3 10 60.10 46.70 0.01 12.40 187.1
3 11 57.50 42.40 0.19 8.95 196.1
3 12 63.00 42.90 0.00 11.95 208.0
3 13 57.70 42.90 0.19 9.30 217.3 *Warning: using yesterdays min*
3 14 58.00 42.90 0.61 9.45 226.8 *Warning: using yesterdays min*
3 15 55.00 46.10 0.45 9.55 236.3
3 16 56.40 35.60 0.00 6.20 242.5
3 17 52.30 36.50 0.09 4.45 247.0
3 18 56.20 40.60 0.30 7.43 254.4
3 19 54.20 34.70 0.00 5.02 259.4
3 20 48.40 44.10 0.20 5.25 264.7
3 21 62.90 44.80 0.12 12.85 277.5
3 22 52.70 42.80 0.09 6.75 284.3
3 23 55.80 33.50 0.24 5.57 289.8
3 24 54.40 45.30 0.00 8.85 298.7
3 25 53.50 43.50 0.00 7.50 306.2
3 26 52.50 43.10 0.25 6.80 313.0
3 27 52.70 43.30 0.09 7.00 320.0
3 28 61.60 45.90 0.05 12.75 332.7
3 29 53.90 45.80 0.45 8.85 341.6
3 30 56.90 38.80 0.01 7.18 348.8
3 31 56.80 32.50 0.01 5.87 354.6
4 1 59.00 42.50 0.04 9.75 364.4
4 2 55.60 40.20 0.03 6.98 371.4
4 3 54.40 33.60 0.00 4.95 376.3
4 4 56.30 37.00 0.00 6.44 382.8 Hx Hn
4 5 59.10 44.80 0.00 10.95 393.7
4 6 63.70 46.30 0.17 14.00 407.7
4 7 54.10 42.60 0.38 7.35 415.1
4 8 52.60 39.00 0.03 5.13 420.2
4 9 55.70 37.40 0.13 6.24 426.4
4 10 56.80 41.20 0.05 8.00 434.4
4 11 50.40 40.70 0.28 4.57 439.0
4 12 58.90 44.70 0.13 10.80 449.8
4 13 52.80 43.10 0.04 6.95 456.8
4 14 53.70 38.10 0.03 5.44 462.2
4 15 58.80 33.30 0.00 6.91 469.1
4 16 61.20 42.90 0.28 11.05 480.1
4 17 58.70 45.10 0.44 10.90 491.0
4 18 63.30 47.10 0.06 14.20 505.2
4 19 58.30 43.40 0.20 9.85 515.1
4 20 59.80 42.50 0.19 10.15 525.2
4 21 66.20 38.10 0.00 11.55 536.8
4 22 61.50 47.30 0.04 13.40 550.2
4 23 56.40 46.40 0.09 10.40 560.6
4 24 57.50 45.80 0.27 10.65 571.2
4 25 53.60 43.50 0.22 7.55 578.8
4 26 55.50 44.70 0.28 9.10 587.9
4 27 56.10 40.30 0.02 7.26 595.2
4 28 58.60 33.80 0.00 6.90 602.1
4 29 65.00 35.90 0.05 10.37 612.4
4 30 59.80 43.90 0.04 10.85 623.3
5 1 56.70 37.80 0.00 6.82 630.1
5 2 66.30 52.30 0.00 18.30 648.4
5 3 79.10 51.00 0.00 24.05 672.5
5 4 82.90 53.60 0.06 27.25 699.7
5 5 57.20 44.10 0.09 9.65 709.4
5 6 59.40 38.10 0.00 8.21 717.6
5 7 63.50 36.40 0.00 9.77 727.3
5 8 70.90 40.00 0.00 14.53 741.9
5 9 75.60 40.80 0.00 17.21 759.1
5 10 73.10 43.30 0.00 17.20 776.3
5 11 57.90 46.80 0.28 11.35 787.6
5 12 53.90 43.20 0.24 7.55 795.2
5 13 54.00 41.20 0.29 6.60 801.8
5 14 60.50 44.50 0.17 11.50 813.3
5 15 60.40 40.60 0.07 9.52 822.8
5 16 57.40 47.60 0.33 11.50 834.3
5 17 61.20 46.40 0.01 12.80 847.1
5 18 70.40 38.20 0.00 13.65 860.7 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 19 75.10 47.50 0.00 20.30 881.0
5 20 69.00 47.90 0.00 17.45 898.5
5 21 79.00 53.50 0.00 25.25 923.7
5 22 86.70 60.20 0.00 32.45 956.2 Peak female adult emergence
5 23 84.60 55.20 0.00 28.90 985.1
5 24 65.20 44.80 0.00 14.00 999.1
5 25 72.00 44.50 0.00 17.25 1016.3 Peak egg laying
5 26 80.60 48.00 0.00 23.30 1039.6
5 27 84.60 50.40 0.00 26.50 1066.1
5 28 77.40 48.70 0.00 22.05 1088.2
5 29 70.70 50.40 0.00 19.55 1107.7
5 30 61.90 51.90 0.00 15.90 1123.6
5 31 73.50 49.30 0.00 20.40 1144.0
6 1 68.30 55.70 0.00 21.00 1165.0
6 2 75.30 51.90 0.00 22.60 1187.6
6 3 65.20 54.00 0.00 18.60 1206.2
6 4 66.60 50.20 0.00 17.40 1223.6
6 5 74.80 46.50 0.00 19.65 1243.3
6 6 80.50 46.60 0.00 22.55 1265.8
6 7 74.50 48.70 0.02 20.60 1286.4 Peak egg hatch
6 8 62.20 52.40 0.50 16.30 1302.7
6 9 59.30 49.80 0.17 13.55 1316.3
6 10 59.50 48.80 0.48 13.15 1329.4
6 11 67.10 48.30 0.00 16.70 1346.1
6 12 62.60 50.40 0.00 15.50 1361.6
6 13 63.90 51.10 0.03 16.50 1378.1
6 14 67.40 49.40 0.00 17.40 1395.5
6 15 63.20 53.30 0.23 17.25 1412.8
6 16 63.70 56.60 0.05 19.15 1431.9
6 17 75.70 51.90 0.00 22.80 1454.7
6 18 80.20 56.50 0.00 27.35 1482.1
6 19 85.60 60.30 0.00 31.95 1514.0
6 20 78.70 53.80 0.00 25.25 1539.3
6 21 76.00 49.10 0.00 21.55 1560.8
6 22 83.40 51.30 0.00 26.35 1587.2
6 23 90.30 59.60 0.00 33.95 1621.1
6 24 97.10 67.60 0.00 41.35 1662.5
6 25 93.10 58.70 0.00 34.90 1697.4
6 26 74.70 56.00 0.00 24.35 1721.7
6 27 75.80 55.90 0.00 24.85 1746.6
6 28 73.80 48.20 0.00 20.00 1766.6
6 29 80.50 49.20 0.00 23.85 1790.4
6 30 79.10 52.10 0.00 24.60 1815.0
7 1 75.30 55.50 0.00 24.40 1839.4
7 2 83.90 50.80 0.00 26.35 1865.8
7 3 78.80 53.80 0.00 25.30 1891.1
7 4 84.20 52.90 0.00 27.55 1918.6
7 5 87.70 56.40 0.00 31.05 1949.7
7 6 86.50 48.40 0.00 26.45 1976.1
7 7 74.90 50.80 0.00 21.85 1998.0
7 8 86.30 53.20 0.00 28.75 2026.7
7 9 84.80 50.70 0.00 26.75 2053.5
7 10 80.20 57.50 0.00 27.85 2081.3 Peak in density large larvae
7 11 79.80 52.70 0.00 25.25 2106.6
7 12 83.80 49.00 0.00 25.40 2132.0
7 13 76.60 51.00 0.00 22.80 2154.8
7 14 86.00 49.90 0.00 26.95 2181.7
7 15 80.30 49.40 0.00 23.85 2205.6
7 16 75.60 47.40 0.00 20.50 2226.1
7 17 81.80 53.30 0.00 26.55 2252.6
7 18 82.70 48.50 0.00 24.60 2277.2
7 19 80.60 46.00 0.00 22.30 2299.5
7 20 75.00 54.30 0.00 23.65 2323.2
7 21 83.20 47.60 0.00 24.40 2347.6
7 22 91.00 53.50 0.00 31.25 2378.8
7 23 87.10 61.80 0.00 33.45 2412.3
7 24 89.40 53.10 0.00 30.25 2442.5
7 25 90.70 51.70 0.00 30.20 2472.7
7 26 88.90 54.30 0.00 30.60 2503.3
7 27 79.20 52.20 0.00 24.70 2528.0
7 28 84.50 53.10 0.00 27.80 2555.8
7 29 87.10 48.20 0.00 26.65 2582.5
7 30 89.00 58.50 0.00 32.75 2615.2
7 31 93.30 57.90 0.00 34.60 2649.8
8 1 98.20 60.80 0.00 38.50 2688.3
8 2 103.30 66.70 0.00 44.00 2732.3
8 3 102.00 61.40 0.00 40.70 2773.0
8 4 94.90 56.30 0.00 34.60 2807.6
8 5 85.90 47.90 0.00 25.90 2833.5
8 6 88.90 53.20 0.00 30.05 2863.6
8 7 90.80 59.60 0.00 34.20 2897.8
8 8 94.30 55.60 0.00 33.95 2931.7
8 9 94.20 57.10 0.00 34.65 2966.4
8 10 89.20 57.00 0.00 32.10 2998.5
8 11 84.20 59.00 0.00 30.60 3029.1
8 12 77.30 58.90 0.00 27.10 3056.2
8 13 72.40 57.50 0.19 23.95 3080.1
8 14 73.80 51.30 0.00 21.55 3101.7
8 15 80.60 47.00 0.00 22.80 3124.5
8 16 85.80 55.40 0.00 29.60 3154.1
8 17 84.10 55.30 0.00 28.70 3182.8
8 18 85.40 57.50 0.00 30.45 3213.2
8 19 80.80 55.10 0.00 26.95 3240.2
8 20 82.10 51.60 0.00 25.85 3266.0
8 21 86.80 57.40 0.00 31.10 3297.1
8 22 85.60 56.00 0.00 29.80 3326.9
8 23 81.20 55.10 0.00 27.15 3354.1
8 24 77.10 57.70 0.00 26.40 3380.5
8 25 80.50 52.10 0.00 25.30 3405.8
8 26 89.30 55.50 0.00 31.40 3437.2
8 27 91.30 51.90 0.00 30.60 3467.8
8 28 95.50 53.60 0.00 33.55 3501.3
8 29 86.50 53.00 0.00 28.75 3530.1
8 30 82.30 48.90 0.00 24.60 3554.7
8 31 84.20 51.10 0.00 26.65 3581.3
9 1 92.70 56.60 0.00 33.65 3615.0
9 2 95.50 53.90 0.00 33.70 3648.7
9 3 95.20 56.00 0.00 34.60 3683.3
9 4 91.00 59.10 0.00 34.05 3717.3
9 5 86.30 60.60 0.00 32.45 3749.8
9 6 81.60 58.00 0.00 28.80 3778.6
9 7 84.30 63.50 0.00 32.90 3811.5
9 8 72.10 63.50 0.00 26.80 3838.3
9 9 81.00 60.40 0.01 29.70 3868.0
9 10 80.30 59.20 0.01 28.75 3896.7
9 11 91.30 53.70 0.00 31.50 3928.2
9 12 89.80 59.40 0.00 33.60 3961.8
9 13 76.20 48.00 0.00 21.10 3982.9
9 14 75.10 48.40 0.00 20.75 4003.7
9 15 78.90 42.50 0.00 19.70 4023.4
9 16 77.70 48.50 0.00 22.10 4045.5
9 17 64.80 52.10 0.06 17.45 4062.9
9 18 66.00 50.60 0.24 17.30 4080.2
9 19 65.70 49.90 0.76 16.80 4097.0
9 20 59.20 46.20 0.52 11.70 4108.7
9 21 62.10 43.70 0.00 11.90 4120.6
9 22 67.50 45.30 0.01 15.40 4136.0
9 23 69.90 46.90 0.01 17.40 4153.4
9 24 73.30 43.70 0.00 17.50 4170.9
9 25 70.90 51.90 0.00 20.40 4191.3
9 26 77.20 52.90 0.00 24.05 4215.4
9 27 85.40 54.10 0.00 28.75 4244.1
9 28 84.90 48.30 0.00 25.60 4269.7
9 29 68.40 47.70 0.16 17.05 4286.8
9 30 61.90 44.00 0.19 11.95 4298.7
10 1 65.60 43.60 0.05 13.60 4312.3
10 2 63.10 42.30 0.00 11.70 4324.0
10 3 70.20 47.90 0.00 18.05 4342.1
10 4 71.30 40.80 0.00 15.06 4357.1
10 5 70.80 36.50 0.00 13.35 4370.5
10 6 74.50 36.70 0.00 15.22 4385.7
10 7 63.40 50.20 0.03 15.80 4401.5
10 8 63.50 38.70 0.00 10.40 4411.9
10 9 64.30 42.80 0.00 12.55 4424.5
10 10 58.40 38.80 0.07 7.92 4432.4
10 11 56.50 43.10 0.16 8.80 4441.2
10 12 56.20 44.10 0.78 9.15 4450.3
10 13 56.00 38.70 0.16 6.71 4457.0
10 14 56.80 37.40 0.01 6.77 4463.8
10 15 62.60 36.90 0.00 9.46 4473.3
10 16 65.80 37.20 0.00 11.10 4484.4
10 17 63.20 40.60 0.01 10.92 4495.3
10 18 65.80 52.60 0.00 18.20 4513.5
10 19 57.90 47.90 0.66 11.90 4525.4
10 20 56.50 46.50 0.56 10.50 4535.9
10 21 60.00 46.00 0.86 12.00 4547.9
10 22 61.70 48.30 1.41 14.00 4561.9
10 23 65.80 47.90 0.00 15.85 4577.7
10 24 69.00 45.60 0.00 16.30 4594.0
10 25 64.00 40.60 0.00 11.32 4605.4
10 26 68.60 51.70 0.01 19.15 4624.5
10 27 71.40 45.80 0.00 17.60 4642.1
10 28 68.80 41.30 0.00 14.05 4656.2
10 29 54.90 43.60 0.02 8.25 4664.4
10 30 62.90 48.50 0.01 14.70 4679.1
10 31 61.90 34.20 0.00 8.52 4687.6
11 1 59.20 38.10 0.00 8.11 4695.7
11 2 55.20 45.90 0.07 9.55 4705.3
11 3 52.20 37.40 0.07 4.57 4709.9
11 4 47.30 33.00 0.08 1.87 4711.7
11 5 53.40 41.30 0.47 6.35 4718.1
11 6 48.80 39.70 0.01 3.46 4721.5
11 7 45.70 34.90 0.00 1.38 4722.9 Px Pn
11 8 43.20 39.20 0.00 0.74 4723.7 Px Pn
11 9 53.90 42.60 0.00 7.25 4730.9 Px Pn
11 10 53.40 46.80 0.13 9.10 4740.0
11 11 56.20 47.30 0.03 10.75 4750.8
11 12 60.60 47.70 0.15 13.15 4763.9
11 13 53.50 44.20 0.62 7.85 4771.8
11 14 55.30 43.60 0.04 8.45 4780.2
11 15 53.00 43.30 1.36 7.15 4787.4
11 16 46.60 42.20 0.87 3.40 4790.8
11 17 50.30 38.10 0.49 3.82 4794.6
11 18 39.50 33.00 0.00 0.00 4794.6
11 19 50.60 34.30 0.00 3.36 4797.9
11 20 55.70 43.60 0.22 8.65 4806.6
11 21 61.20 47.20 0.21 13.20 4819.8
11 22 60.90 54.40 0.42 16.65 4836.4
11 23 61.30 45.00 0.61 12.15 4848.6
11 24 55.80 37.50 0.02 6.31 4854.9
11 25 43.80 34.40 0.10 0.67 4855.6
11 26 54.30 42.20 0.29 7.25 4862.8
11 27 51.70 37.80 0.01 4.42 4867.2
11 28 47.60 37.70 0.35 2.49 4869.7
11 29 52.00 36.40 0.00 4.29 4874.0
11 30 44.60 35.80 0.17 1.02 4875.1
12 1 50.10 42.80 0.01 5.45 4880.5
12 2 46.60 40.40 0.49 2.58 4883.1
12 3 49.70 31.50 0.02 2.70 4885.8
12 4 45.40 32.40 0.01 1.13 4886.9
12 5 47.20 34.60 0.01 1.96 4888.9
12 6 55.30 42.90 0.00 8.10 4897.0
12 7 50.70 28.80 0.00 2.88 4899.8
12 8 44.00 26.10 0.00 0.53 4900.4
12 9 42.70 24.20 0.00 0.22 4900.6
12 10 44.10 23.90 0.00 0.52 4901.1
12 11 43.10 22.20 0.00 0.29 4901.4
12 12 41.10 22.20 0.00 0.00 4901.4
12 13 45.30 26.40 0.01 0.89 4902.3
12 14 44.80 27.50 0.00 0.77 4903.1
12 15 39.00 28.30 0.01 0.00 4903.1
12 16 44.40 27.80 0.01 0.67 4903.7
12 17 47.80 36.10 0.00 2.36 4906.1
12 18 55.00 37.70 0.00 5.97 4912.1
12 19 50.60 38.90 0.90 4.13 4916.2
12 20 46.80 30.20 0.10 1.51 4917.7
12 21 31.10 25.90 0.01 0.00 4917.7
12 22 40.90 30.80 0.10 0.00 4917.7
12 23 40.80 32.50 0.21 0.00 4917.7
12 24 33.20 31.50 0.34 0.00 4917.7
12 25 50.10 31.10 0.01 2.83 4920.6
12 26 33.70 30.30 0.02 0.00 4920.6
12 27 49.60 33.20 0.04 2.81 4923.4
12 28 51.90 37.60 0.23 4.47 4927.8
12 29 55.80 48.90 0.49 11.35 4939.2
12 30 52.50 39.60 0.00 5.25 4944.4
12 31 41.13 29.62 0.01 0.01 4944.4
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 CRVO PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2017 CRVO CORVALLIS OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-18-17 | 861 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-22-17 | 956 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-25-17 | 1016 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-7-17 | 1286 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-10-17 | 2081 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?2059456)
