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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
No ending date, set to: default date 12 31
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2015 CRVO Agrimet CORVALLIS OR Lat44.6342 Long-123.1897 Elev:230
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 39.30 25.10 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 41.50 22.60 0.00 0.03 0.0
1 3 45.80 34.90 0.01 1.42 1.5
1 4 51.40 38.40 0.03 4.40 5.9
1 5 54.00 41.00 0.00 6.50 12.4
1 6 46.20 38.40 0.01 1.96 14.3
1 7 42.60 37.40 0.01 0.39 14.7
1 8 44.50 33.90 0.00 0.89 15.6
1 9 47.40 34.20 0.01 2.00 17.6
1 10 44.00 36.30 0.01 0.83 18.4
1 11 47.40 42.50 0.06 3.95 22.4
1 12 49.30 45.90 0.35 6.60 29.0
1 13 49.10 36.80 0.00 3.03 32.0
1 14 45.30 30.10 0.01 1.00 33.0
1 15 48.50 30.40 0.55 2.15 35.2
1 16 55.10 40.10 0.07 6.69 41.9
1 17 58.50 40.30 1.45 8.46 50.3
1 18 57.60 45.40 0.18 10.50 60.8
1 19 53.40 41.50 0.09 6.45 67.3
1 20 47.40 33.90 0.01 1.98 69.2
1 21 45.30 34.20 0.00 1.19 70.4
1 22 50.10 39.10 0.01 3.94 74.4
1 23 51.40 42.40 0.08 5.90 80.3
1 24 61.20 41.60 0.00 10.40 90.7
1 25 48.50 41.80 0.02 4.15 94.8
1 26 48.20 40.50 0.01 3.40 98.2
1 27 51.50 41.40 0.00 5.45 103.7
1 28 53.30 44.90 0.00 8.10 111.8
1 29 55.90 38.50 0.00 6.61 118.4
1 30 53.20 33.70 0.00 4.43 122.8
1 31 43.90 33.10 0.01 0.66 123.5
2 1 50.20 38.30 0.19 3.81 127.3
2 2 59.50 41.90 0.36 9.70 137.0
2 3 51.70 41.60 0.29 5.65 142.6
2 4 50.00 45.50 0.03 6.75 149.4
2 5 56.50 47.50 0.42 11.00 160.4
2 6 55.40 51.60 0.77 12.50 172.9
2 7 56.60 49.50 1.05 12.05 184.9
2 8 53.40 45.10 0.32 8.25 193.2
2 9 52.40 49.20 0.67 9.80 203.0
2 10 54.30 48.00 0.06 10.15 213.1
2 11 53.30 39.80 0.00 5.70 218.8
2 12 56.10 42.50 0.01 8.30 227.1
2 13 47.40 41.30 0.01 3.35 230.5
2 14 59.10 41.70 0.01 9.40 239.9
2 15 60.50 42.90 0.00 10.70 250.6
2 16 63.30 47.70 0.00 14.50 265.1
2 17 62.70 37.50 0.00 9.66 274.7
2 18 57.20 36.80 0.00 6.83 281.6
2 19 59.10 42.60 0.00 9.85 291.4
2 20 57.40 39.20 0.00 7.54 299.0
2 21 56.80 41.90 0.00 8.35 307.3
2 22 56.20 36.00 0.00 6.18 313.5
2 23 56.30 34.30 0.00 5.92 319.4
2 24 60.00 26.10 0.00 6.46 325.9
2 25 52.90 31.70 0.00 4.05 329.9
2 26 53.20 45.70 0.07 8.45 338.4
2 27 50.80 44.40 0.28 6.60 345.0
2 28 55.50 36.40 0.00 5.93 350.9
3 1 55.10 29.70 0.00 4.77 355.7
3 2 53.00 37.50 0.07 4.97 360.6
3 3 54.80 28.10 0.00 4.48 365.1
3 4 56.20 27.40 0.00 4.99 370.1
3 5 59.60 28.60 0.00 6.58 376.7
3 6 63.70 31.30 0.00 8.83 385.5
3 7 65.40 31.90 0.00 9.72 395.2
3 8 65.90 32.60 0.00 10.09 405.3
3 9 68.30 32.80 0.00 11.26 416.6
3 10 61.00 35.30 0.00 8.32 424.9
3 11 57.70 48.70 0.08 12.20 437.1
3 12 67.10 43.00 0.01 14.05 451.2
3 13 61.70 45.00 0.00 12.35 463.5
3 14 57.90 52.20 1.01 14.05 477.6
3 15 59.90 43.00 0.65 10.45 488.0
3 16 57.90 37.10 0.00 7.23 495.2
3 17 58.10 37.50 0.05 7.42 502.7
3 18 62.10 37.60 0.00 9.40 512.1
3 19 68.10 36.10 0.00 11.93 524.0
3 20 62.30 40.00 0.37 10.24 534.2
3 21 61.20 44.50 0.04 11.85 546.1
3 22 56.70 44.70 0.24 9.70 555.8
3 23 52.90 44.50 0.77 7.70 563.5
3 24 56.70 44.30 0.06 9.50 573.0
3 25 62.60 49.60 0.09 15.10 588.1
3 26 70.30 41.30 0.00 14.80 602.9
3 27 67.00 43.70 0.01 14.35 617.2
3 28 61.60 45.90 0.01 12.75 630.0
3 29 66.70 37.70 0.00 11.68 641.7
3 30 67.60 38.50 0.00 12.36 654.0
3 31 53.70 43.00 0.24 7.35 661.4
4 1 51.40 39.20 0.09 4.60 666.0
4 2 58.20 37.70 0.01 7.52 673.5
4 3 50.00 33.10 0.15 2.97 676.5
4 4 55.60 35.90 0.01 5.88 682.3
4 5 53.20 34.10 0.02 4.48 686.8
4 6 54.30 37.80 0.11 5.66 692.5
4 7 55.70 41.70 0.00 7.70 700.2
4 8 56.30 45.20 0.50 9.75 709.9
4 9 63.30 39.90 0.01 10.70 720.6
4 10 60.60 36.40 0.00 8.37 729.0
4 11 55.40 38.50 0.10 6.36 735.4
4 12 59.20 32.20 0.00 6.91 742.3
4 13 53.90 37.60 0.14 5.42 747.7
4 14 49.70 36.60 0.19 3.27 751.0
4 15 56.50 32.30 0.01 5.70 756.7
4 16 68.20 36.50 0.00 12.08 768.8
4 17 71.30 37.60 0.00 13.91 782.7
4 18 72.00 41.50 0.00 15.75 798.4
4 19 73.10 44.70 0.00 17.90 816.3
4 20 75.90 38.30 0.00 16.41 832.7
4 21 63.70 40.20 0.00 11.01 843.7
4 22 59.40 33.80 0.01 7.27 851.0 Peak pheromone trap catch
4 23 54.90 34.60 0.00 5.33 856.3
4 24 56.00 43.60 0.05 8.80 865.1
4 25 57.50 40.20 0.08 7.92 873.1
4 26 58.60 36.50 0.01 7.43 880.5
4 27 76.00 45.40 0.00 19.70 900.2
4 28 63.10 46.30 0.00 13.70 913.9
4 29 63.00 35.20 0.00 9.25 923.1
4 30 67.50 38.40 0.00 12.28 935.4
5 1 71.80 44.10 0.00 16.95 952.4 Peak female adult emergence
5 2 67.90 42.00 0.00 13.95 966.3
5 3 71.00 40.30 0.00 14.69 981.0
5 4 63.60 37.40 0.00 10.07 991.1
5 5 64.10 38.30 0.01 10.57 1001.7 Peak egg laying
5 6 62.30 37.20 0.01 9.39 1011.1
5 7 69.80 36.40 0.00 12.83 1023.9
5 8 77.20 43.10 0.00 19.15 1043.0
5 9 79.90 42.00 0.00 19.95 1063.0
5 10 71.30 44.30 0.00 16.80 1079.8
5 11 57.70 48.90 0.15 12.30 1092.1
5 12 55.50 47.70 0.53 10.60 1102.7
5 13 63.80 46.10 0.01 13.95 1116.6
5 14 66.80 45.60 0.00 15.20 1131.8
5 15 60.00 46.40 0.00 12.20 1144.0
5 16 62.40 50.40 0.00 15.40 1159.4
5 17 68.20 49.60 0.00 17.90 1177.3
5 18 72.80 44.50 0.00 17.65 1195.0
5 19 63.40 49.00 0.00 15.20 1210.2
5 20 69.60 54.30 0.01 20.95 1231.1
5 21 71.40 56.00 0.00 22.70 1253.8
5 22 62.80 52.90 0.02 16.85 1270.7 Peak egg hatch
5 23 62.30 51.80 0.08 16.05 1286.7
5 24 67.20 51.80 0.00 18.50 1305.2
5 25 69.60 46.60 0.00 17.10 1322.3
5 26 69.10 43.50 0.00 15.30 1337.6
5 27 76.80 46.00 0.00 20.40 1358.0
5 28 82.20 47.50 0.00 23.85 1381.9
5 29 79.60 48.60 0.00 23.10 1405.0
5 30 76.10 47.70 0.00 20.90 1425.9
5 31 82.80 50.40 0.00 25.60 1451.5
6 1 60.70 52.30 0.64 15.50 1467.0
6 2 63.90 53.00 0.06 17.45 1484.4
6 3 65.80 52.00 0.01 17.90 1502.3
6 4 72.60 47.90 0.00 19.25 1521.6
6 5 84.70 50.60 0.00 26.65 1548.2
6 6 87.70 55.00 0.00 30.35 1578.6
6 7 88.90 54.20 0.00 30.55 1609.1
6 8 92.90 58.80 0.00 34.85 1644.0
6 9 89.90 55.40 0.00 31.65 1675.6
6 10 79.30 43.80 0.00 20.55 1696.2
6 11 80.20 44.60 0.00 21.40 1717.6
6 12 74.00 46.10 0.00 19.05 1736.6
6 13 76.10 42.90 0.00 18.50 1755.1
6 14 83.80 43.30 0.00 22.55 1777.7
6 15 77.00 46.10 0.00 20.55 1798.2
6 16 78.10 44.60 0.00 20.35 1818.6
6 17 80.80 45.80 0.00 22.30 1840.9
6 18 80.00 52.80 0.00 25.40 1866.3
6 19 76.60 48.40 0.00 21.50 1887.8
6 20 81.00 54.30 0.00 26.65 1914.4
6 21 79.90 51.40 0.00 24.65 1939.1
6 22 78.30 45.10 0.00 20.70 1959.8
6 23 82.70 44.50 0.00 22.60 1982.4
6 24 85.40 51.40 0.00 27.40 2009.8
6 25 91.30 50.80 0.00 30.05 2039.8
6 26 96.70 60.80 0.00 37.75 2077.6 Peak in density large larvae
6 27 93.30 68.40 0.00 39.85 2117.4 Vx
6 28 82.20 62.00 0.00 31.10 2148.5
6 29 89.00 55.90 0.00 31.45 2180.0
6 30 93.10 55.00 0.00 33.05 2213.0
7 1 96.60 59.80 0.00 37.20 2250.2
7 2 97.70 56.90 0.00 36.30 2286.5
7 3 97.60 56.70 0.00 36.15 2322.7
7 4 94.30 52.30 0.00 32.30 2355.0
7 5 91.80 53.20 0.00 31.50 2386.5
7 6 90.00 52.10 0.00 30.05 2416.5
7 7 87.30 51.30 0.00 28.30 2444.8
7 8 90.30 50.90 0.00 29.60 2474.4
7 9 79.10 53.80 0.00 25.45 2499.9
7 10 76.50 58.50 0.00 26.50 2526.4
7 11 71.10 60.60 0.00 24.85 2551.2
7 12 80.30 57.10 0.00 27.70 2578.9
7 13 82.20 54.40 0.00 27.30 2606.2
7 14 84.40 52.90 0.00 27.65 2633.9
7 15 84.20 49.50 0.00 25.85 2659.7
7 16 80.20 50.50 0.00 24.35 2684.1
7 17 85.80 51.50 0.00 27.65 2711.7
7 18 96.70 61.90 0.00 38.30 2750.0
7 19 92.70 56.40 0.00 33.55 2783.6
7 20 88.30 51.70 0.00 29.00 2812.6
7 21 78.20 53.40 0.00 24.80 2837.4
7 22 75.60 48.70 0.00 21.15 2858.5
7 23 81.70 52.80 0.00 26.25 2884.8
7 24 83.20 47.80 0.00 24.50 2909.3
7 25 73.00 54.60 0.00 22.80 2932.1
7 26 72.40 47.30 0.00 18.85 2950.9
7 27 78.40 50.00 0.00 23.20 2974.1
7 28 86.90 54.40 0.00 29.65 3003.8
7 29 97.70 62.20 0.00 38.95 3042.7
7 30 102.70 63.40 0.00 42.05 3084.8
7 31 100.90 56.40 0.00 37.65 3122.4
8 1 98.20 60.70 0.00 38.45 3160.9
8 2 82.30 59.70 0.00 30.00 3190.9
8 3 85.80 60.70 0.00 32.25 3223.1
8 4 83.70 54.40 0.00 28.05 3251.2
8 5 81.20 48.60 0.00 23.90 3275.1
8 6 81.00 51.80 0.00 25.40 3300.5
8 7 86.50 54.10 0.00 29.30 3329.8
8 8 81.20 50.40 0.00 24.80 3354.6
8 9 85.10 61.60 0.00 32.35 3386.9
8 10 82.70 56.60 0.00 28.65 3415.6
8 11 86.90 57.60 0.00 31.25 3446.8
8 12 90.80 58.00 0.00 33.40 3480.2
8 13 84.30 49.80 0.00 26.05 3506.3
8 14 74.70 55.00 0.03 23.85 3530.1
8 15 77.80 60.20 0.00 28.00 3558.1
8 16 84.20 51.80 0.00 27.00 3585.1
8 17 89.60 53.90 0.00 30.75 3615.9
8 18 94.60 57.00 0.00 34.80 3650.7
8 19 97.50 55.40 0.00 35.45 3686.1
8 20 81.40 51.50 0.00 25.45 3711.6
8 21 80.20 51.80 0.00 25.00 3736.6
8 22 86.80 51.60 0.00 28.20 3764.8
8 23 85.90 51.60 0.00 27.75 3792.5
8 24 82.20 47.90 0.00 24.05 3816.6
8 25 84.20 47.00 0.00 24.60 3841.2
8 26 88.80 46.20 0.00 26.50 3867.7
8 27 89.30 47.90 0.00 27.60 3895.3
8 28 79.80 63.30 0.00 30.55 3925.8
8 29 73.60 63.70 0.16 27.65 3953.5
8 30 70.80 54.90 0.18 21.85 3975.3
8 31 74.00 53.20 0.00 22.60 3997.9
9 1 76.60 56.70 0.00 25.65 4023.6
9 2 70.80 53.10 0.19 20.95 4044.5
9 3 66.40 45.50 0.09 14.95 4059.5
9 4 65.40 43.80 0.00 13.60 4073.1
9 5 69.90 41.00 0.00 14.45 4087.5
9 6 70.90 44.10 0.00 16.50 4104.0
9 7 75.80 51.30 0.00 22.55 4126.6
9 8 82.70 52.30 0.00 26.50 4153.1
9 9 85.60 55.30 0.00 29.45 4182.5
9 10 86.50 54.90 0.00 29.70 4212.2
9 11 91.40 51.30 0.00 30.35 4242.6
9 12 88.90 54.00 0.00 30.45 4273.0
9 13 78.80 47.60 0.00 22.20 4295.2
9 14 63.30 44.60 0.00 12.95 4308.2
9 15 63.50 40.00 0.10 10.84 4319.0
9 16 67.00 50.60 0.07 17.80 4336.8
9 17 68.70 52.40 1.00 19.55 4356.4
9 18 73.00 47.90 0.00 19.45 4375.8
9 19 79.20 46.10 0.00 21.65 4397.5
9 20 78.60 50.50 0.00 23.55 4421.0
9 21 72.50 53.00 0.08 21.75 4442.8
9 22 69.60 44.80 0.00 16.20 4459.0
9 23 75.10 39.10 0.00 16.29 4475.3
9 24 77.60 48.80 0.00 22.20 4497.5
9 25 66.00 51.50 0.14 17.75 4515.2
9 26 68.50 49.60 0.01 18.05 4533.3
9 27 69.20 41.10 0.00 14.15 4547.4
9 28 77.90 41.60 0.00 18.75 4566.2
9 29 80.30 39.80 0.00 19.14 4585.3
9 30 72.10 40.30 0.00 15.24 4600.5
10 1 76.90 42.00 0.00 18.45 4619.0
10 2 62.50 42.90 0.00 11.70 4630.7
10 3 68.00 44.40 0.00 15.20 4645.9
10 4 79.80 50.00 0.00 23.90 4669.8
10 5 83.10 46.50 0.00 23.80 4693.6
10 6 74.70 46.80 0.00 19.75 4713.3
10 7 69.40 54.50 0.00 20.95 4734.3
10 8 74.60 52.10 0.00 22.35 4756.6
10 9 77.00 45.10 0.00 20.05 4776.7
10 10 73.30 53.40 0.23 22.35 4799.0
10 11 67.70 47.60 0.00 16.65 4815.7
10 12 73.00 43.90 0.01 17.45 4833.1
10 13 75.70 44.20 0.00 18.95 4852.1
10 14 69.30 48.30 0.00 17.80 4869.9
10 15 78.80 42.20 0.00 19.50 4889.4
10 16 67.50 45.20 0.00 15.35 4904.7
10 17 66.60 54.00 0.09 19.30 4924.0
10 18 71.00 54.00 0.00 21.50 4945.5
10 19 64.20 54.30 0.19 18.25 4963.8
10 20 62.90 49.20 0.01 15.05 4978.8
10 21 65.70 44.90 0.00 14.30 4993.1
10 22 63.30 45.00 0.00 13.15 5006.3
10 23 57.70 39.70 0.00 7.85 5014.1
10 24 67.90 45.70 0.00 15.80 5029.9
10 25 61.80 48.00 0.58 13.90 5043.8
10 26 64.70 47.90 0.08 15.30 5059.1
10 27 54.90 41.50 0.00 7.20 5066.3
10 28 64.70 50.30 0.53 16.50 5082.8
10 29 65.90 51.80 0.01 17.85 5100.7
10 30 60.50 54.40 0.32 16.45 5117.1
10 31 65.20 57.30 1.14 20.25 5137.4
11 1 61.00 51.70 0.14 15.35 5152.7
11 2 56.90 42.90 0.10 8.90 5161.6
11 3 58.50 38.00 0.02 7.74 5169.4
11 4 53.00 34.00 0.00 4.38 5173.8
11 5 53.00 43.50 0.09 7.25 5181.0
11 6 61.80 37.90 0.01 9.33 5190.3
11 7 52.70 38.50 0.36 5.05 5195.4
11 8 52.40 44.00 0.10 7.20 5202.6
11 9 52.80 35.50 0.01 4.51 5207.1
11 10 51.00 34.30 0.00 3.53 5210.6
11 11 55.30 41.50 0.11 7.40 5218.0
11 12 51.20 37.70 0.08 4.16 5222.2
11 13 58.50 49.60 0.07 13.05 5235.3
11 14 59.60 53.10 0.00 15.35 5250.6
11 15 55.30 36.60 0.60 5.88 5256.5
11 16 47.60 34.90 0.45 2.15 5258.6
11 17 57.40 47.40 0.39 11.40 5270.0
11 18 51.90 37.80 0.28 4.51 5274.5
11 19 55.20 43.00 0.66 8.10 5282.6
11 20 49.20 38.20 0.00 3.32 5286.0
11 21 49.80 33.80 0.00 2.96 5288.9
11 22 45.40 28.20 0.00 0.97 5289.9
11 23 43.60 28.30 0.26 0.46 5290.4
11 24 44.50 37.30 0.27 1.10 5291.5
11 25 46.40 33.20 0.00 1.54 5293.0
11 26 48.50 26.80 0.00 1.94 5294.9
11 27 49.30 25.00 0.00 2.14 5297.1
11 28 47.00 23.00 0.00 1.31 5298.4
11 29 42.70 20.30 0.00 0.20 5298.6
11 30 33.90 20.70 0.01 0.00 5298.6
12 1 44.70 29.50 0.00 0.80 5299.4
12 2 44.70 37.10 0.38 1.16 5300.5
12 3 57.30 41.70 0.08 8.50 5309.0
12 4 50.00 40.80 0.64 4.41 5313.4
12 5 52.90 38.90 0.07 5.25 5318.7
12 6 54.90 45.70 0.46 9.30 5328.0
12 7 61.00 49.30 1.28 14.15 5342.1
12 8 61.50 57.80 0.23 18.65 5360.8
12 9 59.00 47.10 0.33 12.05 5372.8
12 10 52.10 43.00 0.66 6.55 5379.4
12 11 50.20 43.00 0.05 5.60 5385.0
12 12 52.40 43.90 0.97 7.15 5392.1
12 13 46.70 39.10 0.60 2.31 5394.5
12 14 41.00 36.40 0.16 0.00 5394.5
12 15 41.60 31.60 0.02 0.06 5394.5
12 16 46.10 39.40 0.31 2.09 5396.6
12 17 53.80 42.20 2.27 7.00 5403.6
12 18 53.00 43.10 0.44 7.05 5410.7
12 19 47.70 40.60 0.12 3.19 5413.9
12 20 47.50 41.90 0.30 3.70 5417.6
12 21 52.50 42.40 0.74 6.45 5424.0
12 22 46.00 40.60 0.34 2.35 5426.4
12 23 42.90 36.60 0.57 0.46 5426.8
12 24 42.40 35.20 0.10 0.27 5427.1
12 25 45.30 31.60 0.00 1.06 5428.1
12 26 36.30 30.50 0.01 0.00 5428.1
12 27 40.70 34.10 0.47 0.00 5428.1
12 28 44.90 37.00 0.05 1.23 5429.4
12 29 43.10 34.70 0.04 0.46 5429.8
12 30 42.20 29.80 0.00 0.16 5430.0
12 31 41.96 30.50 0.00 0.12 5430.1
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 CRVO PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2015 CRVO CORVALLIS OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME Date | DDs | Event |
4-22-15 | 851 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
5-1-15 | 952 | Peak female adult emergence |
5-5-15 | 1002 | Peak egg laying |
5-22-15 | 1271 | Peak egg hatch |
6-26-15 | 2078 | Peak in density large larvae |