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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
No ending date, set to: default date 12 31
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2020 ARAO Agrimet AURORA OR Lat45.2817 Long-122.7503 Elev:141
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 54.90 46.30 0.11 9.60 9.6 * START *
1 2 51.00 42.80 0.00 5.90 15.5
1 3 60.90 42.00 0.00 10.45 25.9
1 4 48.40 40.10 0.45 3.38 29.3
1 5 48.60 40.40 0.24 3.57 32.9
1 6 51.00 43.80 0.56 6.40 39.3
1 7 56.00 45.40 0.22 9.70 49.0
1 8 46.50 38.50 0.20 2.11 51.1
1 9 41.80 32.40 0.01 0.10 51.2
1 10 46.70 36.10 0.56 1.89 53.1
1 11 45.00 40.90 0.60 1.96 55.1
1 12 45.60 37.20 0.92 1.54 56.6
1 13 39.00 36.40 0.25 0.00 56.6
1 14 42.10 30.50 0.01 0.15 56.7
1 15 48.50 26.40 0.18 1.93 58.7
1 16 43.50 29.00 0.22 0.45 59.1
1 17 42.70 29.10 0.23 0.26 59.4
1 18 50.20 39.50 0.17 4.09 63.5
1 19 54.20 41.00 0.06 6.60 70.1
1 20 47.10 38.30 0.00 2.36 72.4
1 21 50.20 39.90 0.40 4.20 76.6
1 22 53.60 45.30 0.12 8.45 85.1
1 23 55.10 51.20 0.97 12.15 97.2
1 24 56.10 46.20 0.02 10.15 107.4
1 25 57.60 46.10 0.19 10.85 118.2
1 26 55.30 46.50 0.35 9.90 128.1
1 27 52.50 39.90 0.61 5.34 133.5
1 28 52.40 45.60 0.56 8.00 141.5
1 29 48.20 44.90 0.54 5.55 147.0
1 30 54.50 39.30 0.07 6.14 153.2
1 31 61.90 54.00 0.00 16.95 170.1
2 1 58.20 41.20 0.17 8.70 178.8
2 2 45.70 31.50 0.01 1.19 180.0
2 3 47.90 30.90 0.02 1.95 182.0
2 4 41.80 26.70 0.00 0.08 182.0
2 5 50.70 40.80 0.18 4.76 186.8
2 6 57.10 48.70 0.00 11.90 198.7
2 7 53.50 43.70 0.18 7.60 206.3
2 8 49.50 39.60 0.02 3.78 210.1
2 9 46.40 35.00 0.00 1.67 211.7
2 10 51.70 35.30 0.00 3.98 215.7
2 11 42.70 31.10 0.00 0.28 216.0
2 12 51.20 34.20 0.00 3.61 219.6
2 13 44.00 31.30 0.07 0.63 220.2
2 14 48.60 37.80 0.05 2.96 223.2
2 15 46.10 42.00 0.81 3.05 226.3
2 16 50.90 39.80 0.01 4.52 230.8
2 17 50.90 33.90 0.00 3.44 234.2
2 18 53.00 33.60 0.00 4.32 238.5
2 19 59.60 39.30 0.00 8.66 247.2
2 20 55.90 30.20 0.00 5.17 252.4
2 21 57.80 28.70 0.00 5.81 258.2
2 22 57.00 30.00 0.00 5.62 263.8
2 23 50.00 40.80 0.09 4.41 268.2
2 24 48.10 35.70 0.00 2.44 270.7
2 25 54.30 30.40 0.01 4.50 275.2
2 26 56.50 38.50 0.00 6.90 282.1
2 27 62.90 31.90 0.00 8.56 290.6
2 28 55.30 31.80 0.08 5.10 295.7
2 29 48.70 32.10 0.24 2.35 298.1
3 1 49.60 31.70 0.00 2.68 300.8
3 2 49.10 38.90 0.00 3.41 304.2
3 3 59.70 46.90 0.00 12.30 316.5
3 4 56.70 40.10 0.01 7.49 324.0
3 5 58.70 33.00 0.00 6.81 330.8
3 6 48.10 40.80 0.41 3.46 334.2
3 7 47.80 35.60 0.06 2.30 336.5
3 8 51.50 33.50 0.01 3.65 340.2
3 9 56.20 29.20 0.00 5.18 345.4
3 10 60.70 28.90 0.00 7.11 352.5
3 11 56.60 34.70 0.00 6.13 358.6
3 12 55.00 28.90 0.00 4.64 363.3
3 13 40.20 32.20 0.10 0.00 363.3
3 14 42.00 32.30 0.52 0.14 363.4
3 15 47.20 32.70 0.00 1.81 365.2
3 16 60.80 35.90 0.00 8.35 373.5
3 17 58.80 37.70 0.00 7.81 381.4
3 18 57.80 34.10 0.00 6.58 387.9
3 19 63.60 32.00 0.00 8.90 396.8
3 20 66.60 35.10 0.00 10.95 407.8
3 21 60.30 36.50 0.00 8.25 416.0
3 22 62.80 32.00 0.00 8.53 424.6
3 23 51.10 43.40 0.22 6.25 430.8
3 24 49.40 37.90 0.50 3.35 434.2
3 25 53.30 37.40 0.15 5.09 439.3
3 26 51.00 34.10 0.00 3.51 442.8
3 27 50.10 38.90 0.16 3.89 446.7
3 28 53.40 45.90 0.07 8.65 455.3
3 29 57.90 47.50 0.14 11.70 467.0
3 30 50.80 43.10 0.59 5.95 473.0
3 31 51.40 39.10 0.17 4.57 477.5
4 1 48.00 38.00 0.38 2.72 480.3
4 2 51.60 37.80 0.01 4.37 484.6
4 3 48.80 33.40 0.03 2.50 487.1
4 4 51.60 37.90 0.08 4.39 491.5
4 5 62.80 41.80 0.02 11.30 502.8
4 6 60.40 40.10 0.00 9.33 512.2
4 7 59.80 39.80 0.00 8.93 521.1
4 8 72.90 35.20 0.00 14.03 535.1
4 9 77.00 48.10 0.00 21.55 556.7
4 10 71.60 40.50 0.00 15.08 571.7
4 11 61.80 44.60 0.00 12.20 583.9
4 12 65.50 35.40 0.00 10.50 594.4
4 13 66.80 36.10 0.00 11.29 605.7
4 14 68.20 34.50 0.00 11.59 617.3
4 15 63.00 43.70 0.00 12.35 629.7
4 16 69.10 41.20 0.00 14.15 643.8
4 17 75.30 44.40 0.00 18.85 662.7
4 18 53.40 46.20 0.11 8.80 671.5
4 19 61.90 42.10 0.00 11.00 682.5
4 20 70.00 38.10 0.00 13.42 695.9
4 21 61.20 46.20 0.00 12.70 708.6
4 22 59.20 45.60 0.37 11.40 720.0
4 23 60.60 48.40 0.01 13.50 733.5
4 24 62.00 49.00 0.05 14.50 748.0
4 25 66.80 46.20 0.30 15.50 763.5
4 26 67.20 38.00 0.07 12.01 775.5
4 27 67.40 47.80 0.08 16.60 792.1
4 28 71.50 48.60 0.00 19.05 811.2
4 29 70.50 50.70 0.03 19.60 830.8
4 30 63.90 48.00 0.00 14.95 845.7
5 1 61.60 39.60 0.07 9.75 855.5 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 2 56.70 46.10 0.55 10.40 865.9
5 3 58.10 42.70 0.22 9.40 875.3
5 4 68.70 39.40 0.01 13.21 888.5
5 5 72.00 48.50 0.02 19.25 907.7
5 6 64.80 46.80 0.08 14.80 922.5
5 7 73.70 42.10 0.00 16.90 939.4
5 8 81.60 61.60 0.00 30.60 970.0 Peak female adult emergence
5 9 85.60 66.10 0.00 34.85 1004.9 Peak egg laying
5 10 87.40 53.70 0.00 29.55 1034.4
5 11 68.40 49.90 0.13 18.15 1052.6
5 12 62.40 48.00 0.20 14.20 1066.8
5 13 63.00 49.50 0.08 15.25 1082.0
5 14 56.20 50.40 0.32 12.30 1094.3
5 15 67.10 50.40 0.05 17.75 1112.1
5 16 69.20 53.50 0.18 20.35 1132.4
5 17 68.20 49.50 0.00 17.85 1150.3
5 18 59.80 51.80 0.45 14.80 1165.1
5 19 63.10 48.90 0.00 15.00 1180.1
5 20 59.70 49.80 0.01 13.75 1193.8
5 21 59.10 48.40 0.02 12.75 1206.6
5 22 59.00 45.50 0.02 11.25 1217.8
5 23 63.00 46.90 0.00 13.95 1231.8
5 24 73.40 46.20 0.00 18.80 1250.6
5 25 67.80 51.10 0.02 18.45 1269.0
5 26 73.00 56.90 0.00 23.95 1293.0 Peak egg hatch
5 27 84.60 47.90 0.00 25.25 1318.2
5 28 90.90 54.30 0.00 31.60 1349.8
5 29 84.60 55.50 0.00 29.05 1378.9
5 30 63.30 52.40 0.31 16.85 1395.7
5 31 64.00 51.40 0.00 16.70 1412.4
6 1 71.50 42.50 0.00 16.00 1428.4
6 2 77.10 47.90 0.00 21.50 1449.9
6 3 74.40 50.40 0.00 21.40 1471.3
6 4 72.00 49.00 0.00 19.50 1490.8
6 5 70.20 53.40 0.00 20.80 1511.6
6 6 59.60 49.40 0.23 13.50 1525.1
6 7 60.20 47.50 0.21 12.85 1538.0
6 8 65.00 51.10 0.12 17.05 1555.0
6 9 64.90 50.10 0.54 16.50 1571.5
6 10 77.10 57.90 0.01 26.50 1598.0
6 11 75.10 57.20 0.03 25.15 1623.2
6 12 60.10 54.70 0.17 16.40 1639.6
6 13 59.90 50.70 0.42 14.30 1653.9
6 14 67.70 49.80 0.00 17.75 1671.6
6 15 63.90 54.20 0.57 18.05 1689.7
6 16 63.60 51.70 0.82 16.65 1706.3
6 17 72.50 52.80 0.00 21.65 1728.0
6 18 80.50 49.20 0.00 23.85 1751.8
6 19 83.20 51.90 0.00 26.55 1778.4
6 20 69.80 58.30 0.35 23.05 1801.4
6 21 74.20 57.20 0.00 24.70 1826.1
6 22 86.00 53.40 0.00 28.70 1854.8
6 23 89.20 58.50 0.00 32.85 1887.7
6 24 78.10 60.50 0.00 28.30 1916.0
6 25 84.40 56.10 0.00 29.25 1945.2
6 26 87.60 56.90 0.00 31.25 1976.5
6 27 70.00 58.30 0.00 23.15 1999.6
6 28 70.00 54.10 0.00 21.05 2020.7
6 29 75.20 50.40 0.00 21.80 2042.5
6 30 70.40 57.40 0.00 22.90 2065.4
7 1 65.90 54.70 0.00 19.30 2084.7 Peak in density large larvae
7 2 71.60 51.20 0.00 20.40 2105.1
7 3 73.00 50.00 0.00 20.50 2125.6
7 4 74.20 54.70 0.00 23.45 2149.0
7 5 75.00 51.70 0.00 22.35 2171.4
7 6 67.20 53.80 0.00 19.50 2190.9
7 7 71.60 56.00 0.00 22.80 2213.7
7 8 74.80 56.50 0.00 24.65 2238.3
7 9 75.30 54.20 0.00 23.75 2262.1
7 10 80.80 57.80 0.00 28.30 2290.4
7 11 77.40 53.50 0.00 24.45 2314.8
7 12 78.20 58.10 0.00 27.15 2342.0
7 13 79.80 49.60 0.00 23.70 2365.7
7 14 84.20 50.80 0.00 26.50 2392.2
7 15 88.60 54.00 0.00 30.30 2422.5
7 16 90.00 57.80 0.00 32.90 2455.4 Px
7 17 80.40 60.50 0.00 29.45 2484.8 Px Pn
7 18 90.60 52.00 0.00 30.30 2515.1 Px Pn
7 19 95.60 57.50 0.00 35.55 2550.7 Px Pn
7 20 99.80 60.80 0.00 39.30 2590.0 Px Pn
7 21 97.10 62.70 0.00 38.90 2628.9 Px Pn
7 22 87.40 61.80 0.00 33.60 2662.5 Px Pn
7 23 83.40 56.50 0.00 28.95 2691.4 Px Pn
7 24 70.30 58.20 0.00 23.25 2714.7
7 25 81.50 50.10 0.00 24.80 2739.5
7 26 99.90 60.20 0.00 39.05 2778.5
7 27 96.20 60.20 0.00 37.20 2815.7 Px
7 28 89.00 60.40 0.00 33.70 2849.4
7 29 94.50 59.40 0.00 35.95 2885.4
7 30 96.10 60.80 0.00 37.45 2922.8
7 31 86.80 60.80 0.00 32.80 2955.6
8 1 82.00 59.60 0.00 29.80 2985.4
8 2 85.10 56.90 0.00 30.00 3015.4
8 3 83.70 54.80 0.00 28.25 3043.7
8 4 86.80 57.50 0.00 31.15 3074.8
8 5 85.20 57.50 0.00 30.35 3105.2
8 6 71.40 55.10 0.12 22.25 3127.4
8 7 77.60 49.40 0.00 22.50 3149.9
8 8 78.40 56.50 0.00 26.45 3176.4
8 9 82.20 49.40 0.00 24.80 3201.2
8 10 91.50 54.00 0.00 31.75 3232.9
8 11 82.90 48.80 0.00 24.85 3257.8
8 12 73.10 53.30 0.00 22.20 3280.0
8 13 78.30 49.40 0.00 22.85 3302.8
8 14 87.30 50.20 0.00 27.75 3330.6
8 15 100.20 55.50 0.00 36.85 3367.4
8 16 91.40 63.10 0.00 36.25 3403.7
8 17 92.80 60.50 0.00 35.65 3439.3
8 18 85.10 60.10 0.00 31.60 3470.9
8 19 86.20 56.50 0.00 30.35 3501.3
8 20 81.00 59.50 0.00 29.25 3530.5
8 21 77.10 63.20 0.03 29.15 3559.7
8 22 78.10 56.80 0.01 26.45 3586.1
8 23 83.80 53.60 0.00 27.70 3613.8
8 24 81.50 53.40 0.00 26.45 3640.3
8 25 82.00 54.20 0.00 27.10 3667.4
8 26 82.90 50.60 0.00 25.75 3693.1
8 27 83.90 48.80 0.00 25.35 3718.5
8 28 84.90 52.10 0.00 27.50 3746.0
8 29 77.20 53.40 0.00 24.30 3770.3
8 30 77.60 45.40 0.00 20.50 3790.8
8 31 75.20 57.80 0.00 25.50 3816.3
9 1 87.40 55.00 0.00 30.20 3846.5
9 2 91.20 59.30 0.00 34.25 3880.7
9 3 95.10 58.10 0.00 35.60 3916.3
9 4 85.90 58.60 0.00 31.25 3947.6
9 5 75.50 51.40 0.00 22.45 3970.0
9 6 88.60 49.60 0.00 28.10 3998.1
9 7 87.80 56.20 0.00 31.00 4029.1
9 8 78.90 64.40 0.00 30.65 4059.8
9 9 86.60 70.30 0.00 37.45 4097.2
9 10 78.50 58.50 0.00 27.50 4124.7
9 11 67.80 48.60 0.00 17.20 4141.9
9 12 61.60 47.40 0.00 13.50 4155.4
9 13 60.80 44.90 0.00 11.85 4167.3
9 14 71.80 50.90 0.00 20.35 4187.6
9 15 73.70 55.00 0.00 23.35 4211.0
9 16 71.20 52.30 0.00 20.75 4231.7
9 17 74.20 53.40 0.00 22.80 4254.5
9 18 66.70 58.90 0.65 21.80 4276.3
9 19 71.60 56.90 0.00 23.25 4299.6
9 20 76.60 53.90 0.00 24.25 4323.8
9 21 73.90 49.90 0.00 20.90 4344.7
9 22 73.50 56.50 0.00 24.00 4368.7
9 23 70.60 59.90 1.32 24.25 4393.0
9 24 69.10 56.10 0.00 21.60 4414.6
9 25 61.80 56.70 0.42 18.25 4432.8
9 26 69.40 51.80 0.00 19.60 4452.4
9 27 73.50 50.40 0.00 20.95 4473.4
9 28 83.80 56.00 0.00 28.90 4502.3
9 29 88.10 49.60 0.00 27.85 4530.1
9 30 80.40 50.20 0.00 24.30 4554.4
10 1 77.60 52.00 0.00 23.80 4578.2
10 2 80.30 50.50 0.01 24.40 4602.6
10 3 78.80 53.40 0.00 25.10 4627.7
10 4 69.70 56.50 0.00 22.10 4649.8
10 5 72.50 51.70 0.00 21.10 4670.9
10 6 79.00 47.00 0.00 22.00 4692.9
10 7 73.40 49.10 0.00 20.25 4713.2
10 8 62.60 52.80 0.00 16.70 4729.9
10 9 71.60 51.40 0.01 20.50 4750.4
10 10 62.90 53.30 1.05 17.10 4767.5
10 11 59.70 51.90 0.47 14.80 4782.3
10 12 63.80 53.20 0.09 17.50 4799.8
10 13 64.00 48.60 0.28 15.30 4815.1
10 14 64.00 45.60 0.00 13.80 4828.9
10 15 62.60 40.70 0.00 10.66 4839.5
10 16 67.00 41.20 0.00 13.10 4852.6
10 17 65.20 54.50 0.00 18.85 4871.5
10 18 66.60 53.50 0.00 19.05 4890.5
10 19 64.70 50.40 0.00 16.55 4907.1
10 20 64.30 45.90 0.00 14.10 4921.2
10 21 58.80 39.80 0.00 8.43 4929.6
10 22 57.10 31.60 0.00 5.87 4935.5
10 23 56.60 32.80 0.00 5.82 4941.3
10 24 55.00 41.50 0.07 7.25 4948.6
10 25 48.00 35.80 0.00 2.41 4951.0
10 26 55.10 28.00 0.00 4.59 4955.6
10 27 58.60 29.10 0.00 6.21 4961.8
10 28 66.20 35.70 0.00 10.90 4972.7
10 29 62.70 40.70 0.00 10.71 4983.4
10 30 59.40 41.00 0.05 9.20 4992.6
10 31 59.30 35.30 0.00 7.51 5000.1
11 1 64.40 32.50 0.00 9.37 5009.5
11 2 64.50 33.60 0.00 9.63 5019.1
11 3 62.40 36.90 0.34 9.36 5028.4
11 4 67.60 60.00 0.01 22.80 5051.2
11 5 63.10 49.70 0.90 15.40 5066.6
11 6 50.10 42.30 0.14 5.20 5071.8
11 7 49.30 32.00 0.05 2.58 5074.4
11 8 46.90 29.60 0.00 1.52 5075.9
11 9 45.90 25.80 0.01 1.05 5077.0
11 10 50.70 41.30 0.16 5.00 5082.0
11 11 52.20 36.90 0.00 4.48 5086.5
11 12 48.60 33.60 0.18 2.44 5088.9
11 13 54.00 41.60 0.94 6.80 5095.7
11 14 49.50 41.10 0.92 4.30 5100.0
11 15 57.90 45.00 0.17 10.45 5110.5
11 16 55.10 45.00 0.22 9.05 5119.5
11 17 58.50 43.30 0.13 9.90 5129.4
11 18 51.10 43.20 1.17 6.15 5135.6
11 19 51.60 41.00 0.13 5.30 5140.9
11 20 40.70 31.60 0.00 0.00 5140.9
11 21 43.60 34.60 0.00 0.61 5141.5
11 22 40.00 35.40 0.11 0.00 5141.5
11 23 48.80 39.30 0.12 3.36 5144.8
11 24 49.70 35.50 0.23 3.12 5148.0
11 25 49.50 41.90 0.05 4.70 5152.7
11 26 50.40 41.60 0.00 5.00 5157.7
11 27 41.40 34.00 0.00 0.04 5157.7
11 28 44.60 34.70 0.10 0.96 5158.7
11 29 43.40 38.60 0.00 0.76 5159.4
11 30 52.30 34.10 0.22 4.08 5163.5
12 1 48.40 30.10 0.00 2.09 5165.6
12 2 58.80 37.20 0.00 7.69 5173.3
12 3 49.30 30.20 0.00 2.44 5175.7
12 4 56.00 29.90 0.00 5.18 5180.9
12 5 51.80 29.20 0.00 3.35 5184.2
12 6 51.00 40.00 0.12 4.63 5188.9
12 7 42.10 35.20 0.01 0.19 5189.1
12 8 48.60 33.60 0.28 2.44 5191.5
12 9 52.50 37.40 0.07 4.72 5196.2
12 10 42.90 34.90 0.11 0.40 5196.6
12 11 43.10 37.40 0.64 0.56 5197.2
12 12 44.00 35.20 0.00 0.77 5198.0
12 13 44.90 37.60 0.46 1.29 5199.2
12 14 49.30 38.60 0.01 3.44 5202.7
12 15 48.70 40.20 0.05 3.56 5206.2 Px
12 16 51.40 40.60 0.44 5.03 5211.3
12 17 51.50 39.60 0.00 4.76 5216.0
12 18 50.90 38.10 0.20 4.10 5220.1
12 19 53.40 48.60 0.66 10.00 5230.1
12 20 54.30 46.80 2.25 9.55 5239.7
12 21 60.40 42.00 0.44 10.20 5249.9
12 22 47.70 33.70 0.00 2.08 5252.0
12 23 43.80 29.50 0.01 0.54 5252.5
12 24 31.70 27.40 0.01 0.00 5252.5
12 25 49.50 29.60 0.41 2.48 5255.0
12 26 50.20 43.00 0.05 5.60 5260.6
12 27 53.10 37.00 0.02 4.92 5265.5
12 28 47.40 30.80 0.00 1.76 5267.3
12 29 36.60 27.20 0.02 0.00 5267.3
12 30 47.70 35.40 0.63 2.24 5269.5
12 31 51.10 46.80 0.00 7.95 5277.4 Vx Vn
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 ARAO PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2020 ARAO AURORA OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME Date | DDs | Event |
5-1-20 | 855 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
5-8-20 | 970 | Peak female adult emergence |
5-9-20 | 1005 | Peak egg laying |
5-26-20 | 1293 | Peak egg hatch |
7-1-20 | 2085 | Peak in density large larvae |