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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
No ending date, set to: default date 12 31
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2019 ARAO Agrimet AURORA OR Lat45.2817 Long-122.7503 Elev:141
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 43.10 27.80 0.00 0.33 0.3 * START *
1 2 40.60 27.70 0.01 0.00 0.3
1 3 54.10 39.90 0.04 6.13 6.5
1 4 51.60 44.60 0.21 7.10 13.6
1 5 50.50 39.90 0.02 4.35 17.9
1 6 45.10 38.10 0.26 1.43 19.3
1 7 46.10 33.10 0.05 1.42 20.8
1 8 52.10 41.20 0.25 5.65 26.4
1 9 52.10 40.30 0.14 5.27 31.7
1 10 56.90 43.70 0.02 9.30 41.0
1 11 48.50 38.80 0.00 3.11 44.1
1 12 52.80 29.90 0.00 3.82 47.9
1 13 51.60 28.70 0.00 3.23 51.1
1 14 50.10 28.10 0.00 2.60 53.7
1 15 43.20 35.90 0.00 0.53 54.3
1 16 48.40 33.40 0.12 2.34 56.6
1 17 54.60 39.20 0.07 6.16 62.8
1 18 47.70 37.80 1.18 2.55 65.3
1 19 53.30 42.80 0.29 7.05 72.4
1 20 44.20 39.20 0.65 1.18 73.6
1 21 47.40 37.60 0.01 2.38 75.9
1 22 49.20 37.50 0.23 3.19 79.1
1 23 54.00 46.20 0.19 9.10 88.2
1 24 51.40 38.40 0.00 4.40 92.6
1 25 47.90 33.60 0.00 2.15 94.8
1 26 42.40 29.80 0.00 0.20 95.0
1 27 40.50 37.50 0.00 0.00 95.0
1 28 53.60 39.50 0.01 5.76 100.7
1 29 54.00 32.20 0.00 4.58 105.3
1 30 54.40 28.80 0.00 4.38 109.7
1 31 52.70 27.90 0.00 3.60 113.3
2 1 51.60 36.90 0.17 4.20 117.5
2 2 49.90 43.30 0.01 5.60 123.1
2 3 46.80 36.00 0.30 1.92 125.0
2 4 38.50 29.20 0.06 0.00 125.0
2 5 35.60 27.70 0.14 0.00 125.0
2 6 37.30 26.60 0.00 0.00 125.0
2 7 39.70 24.80 0.00 0.00 125.0
2 8 39.30 27.50 0.15 0.00 125.0
2 9 38.20 29.30 0.34 0.00 125.0
2 10 38.00 25.50 0.08 0.00 125.0
2 11 45.20 36.90 0.82 1.35 126.4
2 12 48.20 38.40 0.00 2.88 129.3
2 13 44.10 38.50 0.02 1.05 130.3
2 14 43.20 37.10 0.34 0.58 130.9
2 15 47.70 39.50 0.02 2.88 133.8
2 16 43.50 37.30 0.20 0.71 134.5
2 17 42.50 35.10 0.00 0.29 134.8
2 18 42.10 27.60 0.00 0.13 134.9
2 19 42.90 37.40 0.13 0.49 135.4
2 20 44.20 34.20 0.06 0.80 136.2
2 21 47.80 29.70 0.01 1.85 138.0
2 22 44.10 28.00 0.17 0.59 138.6
2 23 46.40 36.90 0.29 1.85 140.5
2 24 41.10 32.30 0.61 0.00 140.5
2 25 36.90 30.80 0.06 0.00 140.5
2 26 40.40 26.80 0.01 0.00 140.5
2 27 36.00 28.30 0.02 0.00 140.5
2 28 39.40 25.60 0.03 0.00 140.5
3 1 53.20 34.40 0.02 4.53 145.0
3 2 46.00 32.20 0.00 1.33 146.3
3 3 43.30 29.10 0.00 0.40 146.7
3 4 43.80 26.80 0.00 0.49 147.2
3 5 43.70 27.60 0.00 0.48 147.7
3 6 37.20 32.30 0.19 0.00 147.7
3 7 45.80 33.10 0.07 1.31 149.0
3 8 43.00 31.80 0.19 0.37 149.4
3 9 48.20 33.90 0.00 2.30 151.7
3 10 50.00 33.00 0.00 2.96 154.6
3 11 55.40 26.40 0.03 4.57 159.2
3 12 50.10 38.50 0.62 3.80 163.0
3 13 54.30 36.30 0.00 5.35 168.4
3 14 57.00 33.00 0.00 6.03 174.4
3 15 62.40 34.10 0.00 8.73 183.1
3 16 61.90 33.90 0.00 8.46 191.6
3 17 68.60 42.30 0.00 14.45 206.0
3 18 70.80 45.80 0.00 17.30 223.3
3 19 77.10 51.60 0.00 23.35 246.7
3 20 75.20 50.90 0.00 22.05 268.7
3 21 55.50 45.50 0.01 9.50 278.2
3 22 53.90 37.20 0.22 5.34 283.6
3 23 58.30 40.90 0.01 8.60 292.2
3 24 60.10 40.20 0.00 9.22 301.4
3 25 51.60 45.20 0.21 7.40 308.8
3 26 60.30 34.70 0.01 7.86 316.6
3 27 55.20 41.50 0.35 7.35 324.0
3 28 62.70 34.80 0.20 9.02 333.0
3 29 60.40 44.40 0.01 11.40 344.4
3 30 67.50 38.20 0.00 12.22 356.6
3 31 67.20 37.60 0.00 11.89 368.5
4 1 61.50 46.50 0.03 13.00 381.5
4 2 59.40 50.80 0.34 14.10 395.6
4 3 58.90 45.40 0.00 11.15 406.8
4 4 57.70 44.10 0.23 9.90 416.7
4 5 55.80 43.50 0.41 8.65 425.3
4 6 55.70 41.50 0.98 7.60 432.9
4 7 55.50 46.90 0.87 10.20 443.1
4 8 58.00 47.00 0.52 11.50 454.6
4 9 56.20 46.10 0.04 10.15 464.8
4 10 52.10 45.30 0.05 7.70 472.5
4 11 51.90 47.90 0.11 8.90 481.4
4 12 59.40 46.70 0.00 12.05 493.4
4 13 51.80 41.90 0.22 5.85 499.3
4 14 51.40 39.20 0.01 4.60 503.9
4 15 52.00 36.50 0.16 4.31 508.2
4 16 59.20 42.90 0.04 10.05 518.2
4 17 64.20 48.90 0.01 15.55 533.8
4 18 74.30 46.90 0.00 19.60 553.4
4 19 64.90 51.00 0.27 16.95 570.3
4 20 61.10 47.40 0.01 13.25 583.6
4 21 61.00 46.10 0.00 12.55 596.1
4 22 64.40 40.10 0.00 11.32 607.5
4 23 66.00 50.40 0.00 17.20 624.7
4 24 65.30 44.10 0.00 13.70 638.4
4 25 72.20 45.50 0.00 17.85 656.2
4 26 67.40 45.90 0.00 15.65 671.9
4 27 57.30 43.40 0.00 9.35 681.2
4 28 65.00 32.80 0.00 9.70 690.9
4 29 66.60 43.30 0.00 13.95 704.9
4 30 69.10 43.50 0.00 15.30 720.2
5 1 67.40 34.90 0.00 11.29 731.5
5 2 64.00 39.50 0.00 10.91 742.4
5 3 68.00 40.30 0.00 13.20 755.6
5 4 72.70 42.80 0.00 16.75 772.3
5 5 75.50 44.50 0.00 19.00 791.3
5 6 81.80 45.90 0.00 22.85 814.2
5 7 76.10 46.10 0.00 20.10 834.3
5 8 76.00 45.50 0.00 19.75 854.0 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 9 83.20 56.00 0.00 28.60 882.6
5 10 85.00 49.60 0.00 26.30 908.9
5 11 83.30 48.10 0.00 24.70 933.6
5 12 73.00 46.50 0.00 18.75 952.4 Peak female adult emergence
5 13 68.00 45.50 0.00 15.75 968.1
5 14 59.50 51.80 0.07 14.65 982.8
5 15 64.80 49.00 0.08 15.90 998.7
5 16 60.20 53.50 0.03 15.85 1014.5 Peak egg laying
5 17 61.00 50.10 0.02 14.55 1029.1
5 18 70.50 49.80 0.35 19.15 1048.2
5 19 61.30 49.40 0.24 14.35 1062.6
5 20 64.20 50.60 0.06 16.40 1079.0
5 21 65.90 49.00 0.02 16.45 1095.4
5 22 71.00 49.50 0.09 19.25 1114.7
5 23 74.00 53.90 0.00 22.95 1137.6
5 24 63.70 50.00 0.02 15.85 1153.5
5 25 55.30 48.50 0.36 10.90 1164.4
5 26 73.90 48.50 0.01 20.20 1184.6
5 27 66.50 54.20 0.00 19.35 1203.9
5 28 66.80 54.30 0.00 19.55 1223.5
5 29 75.10 49.10 0.00 21.10 1244.6
5 30 77.60 51.70 0.00 23.65 1268.2
5 31 82.30 54.60 0.00 27.45 1295.7 Peak egg hatch
6 1 81.70 50.80 0.00 25.25 1320.9
6 2 80.60 51.80 0.00 25.20 1346.1
6 3 73.90 48.80 0.00 20.35 1366.5
6 4 77.50 46.70 0.00 21.10 1387.6
6 5 66.30 53.50 0.00 18.90 1406.5
6 6 63.00 51.90 0.14 16.45 1422.9
6 7 63.50 48.50 0.07 15.00 1437.9
6 8 67.30 49.10 0.00 17.20 1455.1
6 9 81.60 48.00 0.00 23.80 1478.9
6 10 84.90 51.10 0.00 27.00 1505.9
6 11 94.40 60.10 0.00 36.25 1542.2
6 12 95.20 64.40 0.00 38.80 1581.0
6 13 85.70 60.10 0.00 31.90 1612.9
6 14 73.00 50.10 0.00 20.55 1633.4
6 15 78.00 52.60 0.00 24.30 1657.7
6 16 80.90 51.90 0.00 25.40 1683.1
6 17 81.50 53.00 0.00 26.25 1709.4
6 18 74.40 55.90 0.00 24.15 1733.5
6 19 68.30 48.40 0.00 17.35 1750.9
6 20 67.10 52.60 0.00 18.85 1769.7
6 21 70.10 52.40 0.00 20.25 1790.0
6 22 72.70 51.80 0.00 21.25 1811.2
6 23 68.40 55.60 0.00 21.00 1832.2
6 24 73.20 47.70 0.00 19.45 1851.7
6 25 72.80 50.80 0.00 20.80 1872.5
6 26 74.00 53.10 0.07 22.55 1895.0
6 27 61.00 49.40 0.39 14.20 1909.2
6 28 73.20 49.30 0.00 20.25 1929.5
6 29 79.00 50.20 0.00 23.60 1953.1
6 30 82.10 51.70 0.00 25.90 1979.0
7 1 77.60 55.30 0.00 25.45 2004.4
7 2 69.00 57.20 0.00 22.10 2026.5
7 3 70.90 58.00 0.00 23.45 2050.0
7 4 80.70 53.40 0.00 26.05 2076.0 Peak in density large larvae
7 5 74.50 58.10 0.00 25.30 2101.3
7 6 68.30 58.90 0.00 22.60 2123.9
7 7 74.40 57.00 0.00 24.70 2148.6
7 8 79.50 56.80 0.00 27.15 2175.8
7 9 72.90 58.30 0.23 24.60 2200.4
7 10 74.60 61.40 0.10 27.00 2227.4
7 11 80.80 62.30 0.00 30.55 2257.9
7 12 82.40 58.80 0.00 29.60 2287.5
7 13 80.10 59.70 0.00 28.90 2316.4
7 14 84.50 59.10 0.00 30.80 2347.2
7 15 75.50 62.00 0.01 27.75 2375.0
7 16 81.00 61.70 0.00 30.35 2405.3
7 17 75.10 59.50 0.00 26.30 2431.6
7 18 75.50 61.00 0.00 27.25 2458.9
7 19 74.60 50.70 0.00 21.65 2480.5
7 20 86.10 48.90 0.00 26.50 2507.0
7 21 87.70 52.80 0.00 29.25 2536.3
7 22 84.90 55.00 0.00 28.95 2565.2
7 23 76.10 55.00 0.00 24.55 2589.8
7 24 79.90 50.70 0.00 24.30 2614.1
7 25 90.60 53.50 0.00 31.05 2645.1
7 26 90.30 56.40 0.00 32.35 2677.5
7 27 78.00 58.10 0.00 27.05 2704.5
7 28 83.30 54.20 0.00 27.75 2732.3
7 29 83.60 54.00 0.00 27.80 2760.1
7 30 78.50 59.80 0.00 28.15 2788.2
7 31 83.60 53.20 0.00 27.40 2815.6
8 1 87.70 55.20 0.00 30.45 2846.1
8 2 79.50 63.50 0.00 30.50 2876.6
8 3 87.00 62.00 0.00 33.50 2910.1
8 4 92.40 57.20 0.00 33.80 2943.9
8 5 91.80 58.40 0.00 34.10 2978.0
8 6 84.80 57.90 0.00 30.35 3008.3
8 7 75.20 56.00 0.00 24.60 3032.9
8 8 69.80 60.70 0.02 24.25 3057.2
8 9 76.60 60.20 0.01 27.40 3084.6
8 10 72.30 58.40 0.00 24.35 3108.9
8 11 76.10 59.20 0.00 26.65 3135.6
8 12 84.60 54.00 0.00 28.30 3163.9
8 13 89.20 54.70 0.00 30.95 3194.8
8 14 87.40 57.60 0.00 31.50 3226.3
8 15 83.00 56.70 0.00 28.85 3255.2
8 16 77.10 53.60 0.00 24.35 3279.5
8 17 72.80 59.30 0.00 25.05 3304.6
8 18 79.20 54.70 0.00 25.95 3330.5
8 19 80.60 55.00 0.00 26.80 3357.3
8 20 84.20 53.90 0.00 28.05 3385.4
8 21 69.70 53.80 0.02 20.75 3406.1
8 22 73.90 56.00 0.00 23.95 3430.1
8 23 83.30 51.10 0.00 26.20 3456.3
8 24 81.70 54.40 0.00 27.05 3483.3
8 25 78.70 58.70 0.00 27.70 3511.0
8 26 85.90 52.40 0.00 28.15 3539.2
8 27 97.00 62.80 0.00 38.90 3578.1
8 28 94.30 58.80 0.00 35.55 3613.6
8 29 81.30 63.30 0.08 31.30 3644.9
8 30 78.30 65.10 0.00 30.70 3675.6
8 31 83.00 55.60 0.00 28.30 3703.9
9 1 82.30 64.20 0.00 32.25 3736.2
9 2 82.50 56.40 0.00 28.45 3764.6
9 3 84.20 55.00 0.00 28.60 3793.2
9 4 80.10 61.20 0.00 29.65 3822.9
9 5 88.80 57.50 0.00 32.15 3855.0
9 6 81.50 61.20 0.00 30.35 3885.4
9 7 66.20 58.20 0.00 21.20 3906.6
9 8 69.80 59.00 0.62 23.40 3930.0
9 9 68.00 58.30 0.12 22.15 3952.1
9 10 66.80 55.80 0.11 20.30 3972.4
9 11 73.20 55.20 0.00 23.20 3995.6
9 12 79.80 50.70 0.00 24.25 4019.9
9 13 74.70 59.60 0.07 26.15 4046.0
9 14 75.60 55.00 0.00 24.30 4070.3
9 15 62.50 57.40 0.85 18.95 4089.3
9 16 68.30 54.60 0.20 20.45 4109.7
9 17 65.80 57.80 0.14 20.80 4130.5
9 18 66.20 53.00 0.86 18.60 4149.1
9 19 69.00 52.90 0.01 19.95 4169.1
9 20 68.70 57.10 0.01 21.90 4191.0
9 21 71.50 52.70 0.00 21.10 4212.1
9 22 63.90 53.80 0.35 17.85 4229.9
9 23 68.40 55.70 0.01 21.05 4251.0
9 24 73.50 59.30 0.00 25.40 4276.4
9 25 71.40 49.10 0.00 19.25 4295.6
9 26 66.90 50.70 0.00 17.80 4313.4
9 27 62.40 45.60 0.03 13.00 4326.4
9 28 58.20 44.30 0.11 10.25 4336.7
9 29 49.60 42.20 0.24 4.90 4341.6
9 30 58.80 41.10 0.00 8.95 4350.5
10 1 63.10 40.40 0.00 10.79 4361.3
10 2 58.20 36.80 0.00 7.31 4368.6
10 3 60.10 45.10 0.35 11.60 4380.2
10 4 62.00 45.00 0.02 12.50 4392.7
10 5 64.80 39.80 0.00 11.41 4404.1
10 6 68.80 45.50 0.00 16.15 4420.3
10 7 67.00 41.40 0.00 13.20 4433.5
10 8 61.60 39.80 0.07 9.82 4443.3
10 9 55.70 33.60 0.01 5.54 4448.8
10 10 60.60 37.50 0.00 8.64 4457.5
10 11 66.20 34.70 0.00 10.67 4468.1
10 12 59.60 36.20 0.00 7.84 4476.0
10 13 63.30 48.00 0.01 14.65 4490.6
10 14 63.90 39.40 0.00 10.82 4501.5
10 15 62.40 38.40 0.00 9.77 4511.2
10 16 57.50 47.90 0.50 11.70 4522.9
10 17 57.70 50.40 0.36 13.05 4536.0
10 18 58.70 48.70 0.34 12.70 4548.7
10 19 57.50 44.60 0.41 10.05 4558.7
10 20 57.20 43.70 0.06 9.45 4568.2
10 21 61.40 52.20 0.00 15.80 4584.0
10 22 64.30 49.10 0.11 15.70 4599.7
10 23 59.10 40.90 0.00 9.00 4608.7
10 24 68.40 38.70 0.00 12.82 4621.5
10 25 64.40 40.50 0.01 11.48 4633.0
10 26 56.90 39.80 0.02 7.49 4640.5
10 27 57.50 35.40 0.01 6.68 4647.1
10 28 55.30 30.80 0.00 4.98 4652.1
10 29 46.30 35.10 0.00 1.64 4653.8
10 30 53.50 35.00 0.00 4.75 4658.5
10 31 54.90 26.20 0.00 4.34 4662.9
11 1 60.90 35.90 0.00 8.40 4671.3
11 2 61.60 31.30 0.00 7.86 4679.1
11 3 62.10 32.60 0.00 8.31 4687.4
11 4 56.20 32.30 0.00 5.57 4693.0
11 5 47.10 33.60 0.00 1.83 4694.8
11 6 58.00 38.00 0.00 7.50 4702.3
11 7 61.80 31.50 0.00 7.99 4710.3
11 8 58.00 31.20 0.00 6.22 4716.5
11 9 51.30 36.60 0.00 4.01 4720.6
11 10 53.90 48.60 0.01 10.25 4730.8
11 11 63.50 40.20 0.01 10.91 4741.7
11 12 50.60 39.80 0.14 4.37 4746.1
11 13 57.00 41.00 0.00 8.00 4754.1
11 14 56.20 39.50 0.00 7.04 4761.1
11 15 57.40 44.40 0.20 9.90 4771.0
11 16 51.80 41.50 0.00 5.65 4776.7
11 17 55.40 46.40 0.02 9.90 4786.6
11 18 57.40 51.00 0.07 13.20 4799.8
11 19 53.20 47.80 0.32 9.50 4809.3
11 20 57.30 40.00 0.00 7.75 4817.0
11 21 57.60 34.50 0.00 6.56 4823.6
11 22 52.50 28.10 0.00 3.54 4827.1
11 23 49.50 30.30 0.00 2.53 4829.7
11 24 49.80 35.30 0.08 3.14 4832.8
11 25 49.40 37.60 0.16 3.30 4836.1
11 26 41.80 36.60 0.05 0.14 4836.2
11 27 44.40 38.60 0.00 1.19 4837.4
11 28 45.00 35.60 0.00 1.16 4838.6
11 29 46.50 25.30 0.00 1.22 4839.8
11 30 43.50 23.40 0.00 0.38 4840.2
12 1 42.20 36.70 0.12 0.24 4840.4
12 2 51.20 29.50 0.00 3.13 4843.6
12 3 46.40 27.80 0.00 1.27 4844.8
12 4 47.00 33.80 0.00 1.81 4846.6
12 5 54.30 34.60 0.00 5.05 4851.7
12 6 48.50 34.00 0.19 2.43 4854.1
12 7 48.40 42.50 0.78 4.45 4858.6
12 8 51.30 44.90 0.01 7.10 4865.7
12 9 49.50 39.70 0.00 3.80 4869.5
12 10 43.80 41.80 0.35 1.80 4871.3
12 11 49.40 43.00 0.38 5.20 4876.5
12 12 53.70 44.60 0.38 8.15 4884.6
12 13 49.80 39.20 0.02 3.82 4888.4
12 14 47.40 36.90 0.07 2.29 4890.7
12 15 44.90 36.60 0.00 1.20 4891.9
12 16 50.80 33.60 0.00 3.36 4895.3
12 17 42.40 30.10 0.00 0.20 4895.5
12 18 40.50 29.20 0.13 0.00 4895.5
12 19 57.20 39.90 0.67 7.67 4903.2
12 20 59.40 51.40 0.08 14.40 4917.6
12 21 50.80 42.60 1.20 5.70 4923.3
12 22 45.50 41.50 0.27 2.50 4925.8
12 23 45.50 36.40 0.13 1.42 4927.2
12 24 40.40 33.90 0.00 0.00 4927.2
12 25 43.40 37.20 0.11 0.66 4927.9
12 26 39.40 28.40 0.00 0.00 4927.9
12 27 44.60 34.40 0.03 0.94 4928.8
12 28 41.70 37.00 0.00 0.12 4928.9
12 29 45.30 39.90 0.02 1.82 4930.7
12 30 47.70 38.60 0.00 2.69 4933.4
12 31 51.52 38.01 0.55 4.38 4937.8
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 ARAO PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2019 ARAO AURORA OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-8-19 | 854 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-12-19 | 952 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-16-19 | 1015 | Peak egg laying |
| 5-31-19 | 1296 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-4-19 | 2076 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?2130528)
