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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2018 MWQGV PDTWFO Grandview WA Lat46.2528 Long-119.8939 Elev:833
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 31.00 25.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 31.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 3 33.00 24.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 4 32.00 26.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 5 34.00 29.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 6 36.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 7 34.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 8 35.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 9 38.00 34.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 10 46.00 29.70 0.00 1.22 1.2 Pn
1 11 43.00 34.00 0.00 0.41 1.6
1 12 43.00 33.00 0.00 0.39 2.0
1 13 50.00 34.00 0.00 3.07 5.1
1 14 46.00 28.00 0.00 1.15 6.2
1 15 42.00 34.00 0.00 0.15 6.4
1 16 52.00 34.00 0.00 3.94 10.3
1 17 42.00 33.00 0.00 0.14 10.5
1 18 48.00 39.00 0.00 2.91 13.4
1 19 49.00 30.00 0.00 2.31 15.7
1 20 52.00 34.00 0.00 3.94 19.6
1 21 48.00 35.00 0.00 2.33 21.9
1 22 50.00 29.00 0.00 2.63 24.6
1 23 40.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 24.6
1 24 52.00 40.00 0.00 5.12 29.7
1 25 48.00 29.00 0.00 1.88 31.6
1 26 48.00 35.00 0.00 2.33 33.9
1 27 55.00 38.00 0.00 6.04 39.9
1 28 45.00 40.00 0.00 1.69 41.6
1 29 52.00 39.00 0.00 4.84 46.5
1 30 52.00 31.00 0.00 3.60 50.1
1 31 46.00 28.00 0.00 1.15 51.2
2 1 45.00 30.00 0.00 0.90 52.1
2 2 47.00 38.00 0.00 2.26 54.4
2 3 63.00 42.00 0.00 11.50 65.9
2 4 65.00 46.00 0.00 14.50 80.4
2 5 57.00 38.00 0.00 7.01 87.4
2 6 55.00 30.00 0.00 4.76 92.2
2 7 53.00 40.00 0.00 5.62 97.8
2 8 68.00 40.00 0.00 13.08 110.9
2 9 50.00 31.00 0.00 2.78 113.6
2 10 46.00 28.00 0.00 1.15 114.8
2 11 41.00 26.00 0.00 0.00 114.8
2 12 38.00 26.00 0.00 0.00 114.8
2 13 43.00 21.00 0.00 0.26 115.0
2 14 49.00 30.00 0.00 2.31 117.4
2 15 48.00 25.00 0.00 1.69 119.1
2 16 57.00 32.00 0.00 5.89 124.9
2 17 58.00 34.00 0.00 6.66 131.6
2 18 43.00 27.00 0.00 0.30 131.9
2 19 32.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 131.9
2 20 33.00 14.00 0.00 0.00 131.9
2 21 30.00 13.00 0.00 0.00 131.9
2 22 33.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 131.9
2 23 35.00 12.00 0.00 0.00 131.9
2 24 49.00 33.00 0.00 2.55 134.4
2 25 50.00 31.00 0.00 2.78 137.2
2 26 47.00 21.00 0.00 1.25 138.5
2 27 50.00 23.00 0.00 2.29 140.8
2 28 47.00 32.00 0.00 1.69 142.5
3 1 46.00 35.00 0.00 1.51 144.0
3 2 49.00 33.00 0.00 2.55 146.5
3 3 45.00 24.00 0.00 0.76 147.3
3 4 51.00 22.00 0.00 2.59 149.9
3 5 52.00 26.00 0.00 3.19 153.0
3 6 50.00 21.00 0.00 2.20 155.2
3 7 49.00 24.00 0.00 1.99 157.2
3 8 57.00 31.00 0.00 5.75 163.0
3 9 56.00 30.40 0.00 5.23 168.2 Pn
3 10 55.00 25.00 0.00 4.29 172.5
3 11 59.00 33.00 0.00 6.95 179.4
3 12 64.00 31.00 0.00 8.91 188.4
3 13 60.00 37.00 0.00 8.22 196.6
3 14 59.00 38.00 0.00 7.99 204.6
3 15 55.00 30.00 0.00 4.76 209.3
3 16 52.00 34.00 0.00 3.94 213.3
3 17 56.00 36.00 0.00 6.09 219.4
3 18 58.00 29.00 0.00 5.93 225.3
3 19 58.00 28.00 0.00 5.82 231.1
3 20 61.00 28.00 0.00 7.12 238.2
3 21 54.00 36.00 0.00 5.15 243.4
3 22 51.00 33.00 0.00 3.38 246.8
3 23 50.00 33.00 0.00 2.96 249.7
3 24 50.00 34.00 0.00 3.07 252.8
3 25 54.00 34.00 0.00 4.83 257.6
3 26 51.00 29.00 0.00 3.02 260.6
3 27 66.00 41.00 0.00 12.50 273.1
3 28 60.00 40.00 0.00 9.10 282.2
3 29 64.00 37.00 0.00 10.16 292.4
3 30 66.00 39.00 0.00 11.73 304.1
3 31 58.00 35.00 0.00 6.84 311.0
4 1 58.00 38.00 0.00 7.50 318.5
4 2 55.00 32.00 0.00 5.00 323.5
4 3 52.00 30.00 0.00 3.50 327.0
4 4 53.00 44.00 0.00 7.50 334.5
4 5 54.00 45.00 0.00 8.50 343.0
4 6 63.00 43.00 0.00 12.00 355.0
4 7 63.00 46.00 0.00 13.50 368.5
4 8 60.00 45.00 0.00 11.50 380.0
4 9 56.00 36.00 0.00 6.09 386.0
4 10 66.00 42.10 0.00 13.05 399.1 Pn
4 11 56.00 42.00 0.00 8.00 407.1
4 12 57.00 41.00 0.00 8.00 415.1
4 13 58.00 38.00 0.00 7.50 422.6
4 14 63.00 50.00 0.00 15.50 438.1
4 15 58.00 47.00 0.00 11.50 449.6
4 16 55.00 41.00 0.00 7.00 456.6
4 17 58.00 40.00 0.00 8.10 464.7
4 18 59.00 36.00 0.00 7.51 472.2
4 19 66.00 37.00 0.00 11.14 483.3
4 20 70.00 38.00 0.00 13.39 496.7
4 21 63.00 45.00 0.00 13.00 509.7
4 22 62.00 33.00 0.00 8.34 518.1
4 23 65.00 36.00 0.00 10.40 528.5
4 24 72.00 36.00 0.00 13.80 542.3
4 25 75.00 42.00 0.00 17.50 559.8
4 26 80.00 42.00 0.00 20.00 579.8
4 27 82.00 46.00 0.00 23.00 602.8
4 28 66.00 44.00 0.00 14.00 616.8
4 29 67.00 39.00 0.00 12.23 629.0
4 30 64.00 38.00 0.00 10.44 639.4
5 1 68.00 44.00 0.00 15.00 654.4
5 2 75.00 41.00 0.00 17.00 671.4
5 3 81.00 46.00 0.00 22.50 693.9
5 4 80.00 53.00 0.00 25.50 719.4
5 5 75.00 58.00 0.00 25.50 744.9
5 6 72.00 56.00 0.00 23.00 767.9
5 7 79.00 56.00 0.00 26.50 794.4
5 8 82.00 52.00 0.00 26.00 820.4
5 9 72.00 57.00 0.00 23.50 843.9
5 10 66.00 50.00 0.00 17.00 860.9 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 11 70.00 48.00 0.00 18.00 878.9
5 12 80.00 47.00 0.00 22.50 901.4
5 13 85.00 49.00 0.00 26.00 927.4
5 14 86.00 53.00 0.00 28.50 955.9 Peak female adult emergence
5 15 90.00 53.00 0.00 30.50 986.4
5 16 80.00 60.00 0.00 29.00 1015.4 Peak egg laying
5 17 82.00 54.00 0.00 27.00 1042.4
5 18 72.00 54.00 0.00 22.00 1064.4
5 19 75.00 52.00 0.00 22.50 1086.9
5 20 74.00 54.00 0.00 23.00 1109.9
5 21 81.00 52.00 0.00 25.50 1135.4
5 22 87.00 54.00 0.00 29.50 1164.9
5 23 87.00 59.00 0.00 32.00 1196.9
5 24 87.00 60.00 0.00 32.50 1229.4
5 25 77.00 56.00 0.00 25.50 1254.9
5 26 78.00 54.00 0.00 25.00 1279.9 Peak egg hatch
5 27 83.00 45.00 0.00 23.00 1302.9
5 28 86.00 53.00 0.00 28.50 1331.4
5 29 74.00 47.00 0.00 19.50 1350.9
5 30 69.00 41.00 0.00 14.00 1364.9
5 31 69.00 48.00 0.00 17.50 1382.4
6 1 74.00 42.00 0.00 17.00 1399.4
6 2 82.00 46.00 0.00 23.00 1422.4
6 3 86.00 51.00 0.00 27.50 1449.9
6 4 73.00 57.00 0.00 24.00 1473.9
6 5 77.00 45.00 0.00 20.00 1493.9
6 6 78.00 48.00 0.00 22.00 1515.9
6 7 84.00 51.00 0.00 26.50 1542.4
6 8 80.00 51.00 0.00 24.50 1566.9
6 9 66.00 51.00 0.00 17.50 1584.4
6 10 66.00 42.00 0.00 13.00 1597.4
6 11 73.00 44.00 0.00 17.50 1614.9
6 12 77.00 44.00 0.00 19.50 1634.4
6 13 76.00 56.00 0.00 25.00 1659.4
6 14 75.00 46.00 0.00 19.50 1678.9
6 15 79.00 48.00 0.00 22.50 1701.4
6 16 73.00 57.00 0.00 24.00 1725.4
6 17 82.00 54.00 0.00 27.00 1752.4
6 18 75.00 60.00 0.00 26.50 1778.9
6 19 83.00 59.00 0.00 30.00 1808.9
6 20 88.00 58.00 0.00 32.00 1840.9
6 21 90.00 64.00 0.00 36.00 1876.9
6 22 85.00 60.00 0.00 31.50 1908.4
6 23 82.00 58.00 0.00 29.00 1937.4
6 24 89.00 56.00 0.00 31.50 1968.9
6 25 77.00 59.00 0.00 27.00 1995.9
6 26 80.50 46.00 0.00 22.25 2018.2 Px
6 27 85.60 44.20 0.00 23.90 2042.1 Px Pn
6 28 79.10 57.70 0.00 27.40 2069.5 Px Pn
6 29 81.00 46.20 0.00 22.60 2092.1 Pn Peak in density large larvae
6 30 83.00 53.00 0.00 27.00 2119.1
7 1 81.00 52.00 0.00 25.50 2144.6
7 2 72.00 50.00 0.00 20.00 2164.6
7 3 77.00 48.00 0.00 21.50 2186.1
7 4 87.00 50.00 0.00 27.50 2213.6 Px
7 5 94.00 55.10 0.00 33.55 2247.1 Pn
7 6 88.00 60.00 0.00 33.00 2280.1
7 7 84.00 54.00 0.00 28.00 2308.1
7 8 87.00 50.00 0.00 27.50 2335.6
7 9 93.00 58.00 0.00 34.50 2370.1
7 10 83.00 58.00 0.00 29.50 2399.6
7 11 86.00 56.00 0.00 30.00 2429.6
7 12 92.00 59.00 0.00 34.50 2464.1
7 13 100.00 62.00 0.00 40.00 2504.1
7 14 90.00 62.00 0.00 35.00 2539.1
7 15 93.00 57.00 0.00 34.00 2573.1
7 16 96.00 60.00 0.00 37.00 2610.1
7 17 99.00 63.00 0.00 40.00 2650.1
7 18 94.00 59.00 0.00 35.50 2685.6
7 19 90.00 58.00 0.00 33.00 2718.6
7 20 83.00 53.00 0.00 27.00 2745.6
7 21 83.00 51.00 0.00 26.00 2771.6
7 22 87.00 52.00 0.00 28.50 2800.1
7 23 92.00 56.00 0.00 33.00 2833.1
7 24 95.00 58.00 0.00 35.50 2868.6
7 25 94.00 62.00 0.00 37.00 2905.6
7 26 95.00 60.00 0.00 36.50 2942.1
7 27 94.00 62.00 0.00 37.00 2979.1
7 28 92.00 62.00 0.00 36.00 3015.1
7 29 95.00 60.00 0.00 36.50 3051.6
7 30 96.00 60.00 0.00 37.00 3088.6
7 31 97.00 65.00 0.00 40.00 3128.6
8 1 93.00 60.00 0.00 35.50 3164.1
8 2 89.00 57.00 0.00 32.00 3196.1
8 3 83.00 54.00 0.00 27.50 3223.6
8 4 82.00 52.00 0.00 26.00 3249.6
8 5 87.00 53.00 0.00 29.00 3278.6
8 6 91.00 57.00 0.00 33.00 3311.6
8 7 94.00 60.00 0.00 36.00 3347.6
8 8 95.00 62.00 0.00 37.50 3385.1
8 9 97.00 64.00 0.00 39.50 3424.6
8 10 99.00 68.00 0.00 42.50 3467.1
8 11 84.00 63.00 0.00 32.50 3499.6
8 12 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 3522.1
8 13 83.00 54.00 0.00 27.50 3549.6
8 14 87.00 54.00 0.00 29.50 3579.1
8 15 89.00 56.00 0.00 31.50 3610.6
8 16 94.00 63.00 0.00 37.50 3648.1
8 17 86.00 65.00 0.00 34.50 3682.6
8 18 87.00 55.00 0.00 30.00 3712.6
8 19 85.00 54.00 0.00 28.50 3741.1
8 20 85.00 60.00 0.00 31.50 3772.6
8 21 83.00 61.00 0.00 31.00 3803.6
8 22 87.00 53.00 0.00 29.00 3832.6
8 23 87.00 55.00 0.00 30.00 3862.6
8 24 75.00 50.00 0.00 21.50 3884.1
8 25 72.00 48.00 0.00 19.00 3903.1
8 26 72.00 51.00 0.00 20.50 3923.6
8 27 75.00 56.00 0.00 24.50 3948.1
8 28 78.00 48.00 0.00 22.00 3970.1
8 29 86.00 50.00 0.00 27.00 3997.1
8 30 80.00 58.00 0.00 28.00 4025.1
8 31 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 4047.6
9 1 77.00 51.00 0.00 23.00 4070.6
9 2 81.00 44.00 0.00 21.50 4092.1
9 3 80.00 50.00 0.00 24.00 4116.1
9 4 78.00 49.00 0.00 22.50 4138.6
9 5 80.00 48.00 0.00 23.00 4161.6
9 6 84.00 50.00 0.00 26.00 4187.6
9 7 88.00 52.00 0.00 29.00 4216.6
9 8 75.00 53.00 0.00 23.00 4239.6
9 9 79.00 48.00 0.00 22.50 4262.1
9 10 75.00 53.00 0.00 23.00 4285.1
9 11 72.00 51.00 0.00 20.50 4305.6
9 12 70.00 44.00 0.00 16.00 4321.6
9 13 71.00 45.00 0.00 17.00 4338.6
9 14 71.00 43.00 0.00 16.00 4354.6
9 15 71.00 46.00 0.00 17.50 4372.1
Forecast using: 1910 MWQGV PRISM_rev1_4km 2008-2017 AVERAGES Lat46.2528 Long-119.8939 DD50
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2018 MWQGV Grandview WA 1910 MWQGV PRISM_rev1_4km 2008-2017 AVERAGES Date | DDs | Event |
5-10-18 | 861 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
5-14-18 | 956 | Peak female adult emergence |
5-16-18 | 1015 | Peak egg laying |
5-26-18 | 1280 | Peak egg hatch |
6-29-18 | 2092 | Peak in density large larvae |