|
Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2023 KMMV METAR McMinnville Muni Apt OR Lat:45.1958 Long:-123.1319 Elev:157
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 48.20 30.20 0.00 2.02 2.0 * START *
1 2 45.00 30.00 0.05 0.90 2.9
1 3 46.40 37.00 0.07 1.86 4.8
1 4 44.60 37.00 0.18 1.11 5.9
1 5 57.20 42.80 0.03 9.00 14.9
1 6 51.10 37.40 0.30 4.06 19.0
1 7 52.00 42.80 0.20 6.40 25.4
1 8 52.00 41.00 0.59 5.50 30.9
1 9 52.00 39.20 0.28 4.89 35.7
1 10 50.00 37.40 0.01 3.54 39.3
1 11 50.00 41.00 0.75 4.50 43.8
1 12 53.60 44.10 0.19 7.85 51.6
1 13 53.60 46.40 0.20 9.00 60.6
1 14 53.60 44.60 0.13 8.10 68.7
1 15 48.90 44.10 0.12 5.50 74.2
1 16 48.90 32.00 0.00 2.42 76.7
1 17 48.90 41.00 0.01 3.95 80.6
1 18 48.90 33.80 0.33 2.58 83.2
1 19 41.00 35.10 0.00 0.00 83.2
1 20 39.20 35.10 0.00 0.00 83.2
1 21 46.90 33.80 0.06 1.77 85.0
1 22 46.40 30.00 0.00 1.36 86.3
1 23 50.00 32.00 0.00 2.86 89.2
1 24 43.00 32.00 0.00 0.37 89.6
1 25 46.40 30.20 0.00 1.37 90.9
1 26 44.60 39.20 0.00 1.36 92.3
1 27 53.60 37.90 0.00 5.35 97.6
1 28 46.90 36.00 0.14 1.97 99.6
1 29 39.20 26.10 0.00 0.00 99.6
1 30 42.80 24.10 0.00 0.24 99.8
1 31 42.80 23.00 0.00 0.23 100.1
2 1 45.00 24.10 0.00 0.76 100.8
2 2 46.90 24.10 0.00 1.31 102.1
2 3 54.00 30.20 0.10 4.35 106.5
2 4 50.00 42.10 0.04 5.05 111.5
2 5 51.80 37.00 0.18 4.31 115.9
2 6 51.80 37.40 0.01 4.38 120.2
2 7 52.00 39.20 0.28 4.89 125.1
2 8 50.00 32.00 0.19 2.86 128.0
2 9 54.00 30.20 0.02 4.35 132.3
2 10 55.90 41.00 0.03 7.45 139.8
2 11 50.00 28.00 0.00 2.56 142.4
2 12 44.60 28.00 0.00 0.73 143.1
2 13 48.20 33.80 0.35 2.29 145.4
2 14 45.00 28.90 1.27 0.87 146.2
2 15 44.60 24.80 0.00 0.66 146.9
2 16 44.60 26.60 0.00 0.70 147.6
2 17 52.00 35.10 0.00 4.09 151.7
2 18 51.80 35.10 0.00 4.00 155.7
2 19 51.80 30.90 0.00 3.50 159.2
2 20 50.00 44.10 0.00 6.05 165.2
2 21 48.90 35.10 0.33 2.72 168.0
2 22 39.90 33.10 0.16 0.00 168.0
2 23 35.60 23.00 0.06 0.00 168.0
2 24 36.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 168.0
2 25 43.00 17.60 0.08 0.24 168.2
2 26 43.00 33.80 0.10 0.41 168.6
2 27 46.90 33.80 0.06 1.77 170.4
2 28 39.90 28.90 0.23 0.00 170.4
3 1 46.90 24.10 0.00 1.31 171.7
3 2 50.00 33.10 0.08 2.97 174.7
3 3 46.90 33.80 0.14 1.77 176.4
3 4 45.00 35.10 0.16 1.13 177.6
3 5 43.00 30.20 0.05 0.34 177.9
3 6 50.00 35.60 0.13 3.26 181.2
3 7 48.90 32.00 0.13 2.42 183.6
3 8 46.40 32.00 0.11 1.46 185.0
3 9 45.00 39.00 2.94 1.51 186.6
3 10 46.90 33.10 0.19 1.72 188.3
3 11 53.10 33.10 0.00 4.30 192.6
3 12 50.00 30.00 0.38 2.70 195.3
3 13 52.00 35.60 0.48 4.16 199.4
3 14 53.60 33.80 0.00 4.62 204.1
3 15 53.60 33.80 0.00 4.62 208.7
3 16 62.60 33.80 0.00 8.77 217.4
3 17 61.00 32.00 0.00 7.70 225.1
3 18 64.40 33.10 0.00 9.48 234.6
3 19 51.80 42.10 0.35 5.95 240.6
3 20 50.00 35.60 0.05 3.26 243.8
3 21 63.00 33.10 0.00 8.82 252.7
3 22 61.00 33.80 0.01 8.02 260.7
3 23 46.40 36.00 0.48 1.76 262.4
3 24 46.90 33.80 0.40 1.77 264.2
3 25 46.90 32.00 0.10 1.65 265.9
3 26 50.00 32.00 0.00 2.86 268.7
3 27 50.00 32.00 0.09 2.86 271.6
3 28 46.40 37.90 0.41 1.98 273.6
3 29 55.90 30.20 0.00 5.17 278.7
3 30 55.90 39.00 0.00 6.75 285.5
3 31 48.20 42.80 0.29 4.50 290.0
4 1 50.00 37.00 0.29 3.47 293.5
4 2 46.90 35.10 0.14 1.88 295.3
4 3 51.80 33.80 0.04 3.82 299.2
4 4 50.00 33.80 0.26 3.04 302.2
4 5 48.90 30.20 0.16 2.29 304.5
4 6 54.00 45.00 0.46 8.50 313.0
4 7 55.90 44.10 0.08 9.00 322.0
4 8 55.90 44.10 0.09 9.00 331.0
4 9 55.40 48.00 0.65 10.70 341.7
4 10 51.80 41.00 0.95 5.40 347.1
4 11 53.60 39.00 0.29 5.62 352.7
4 12 51.80 33.80 0.03 3.82 356.5
4 13 53.60 33.80 0.00 4.62 361.1
4 14 59.00 35.10 0.00 7.33 368.5
4 15 55.90 37.40 0.00 6.34 374.8
4 16 52.00 41.00 0.20 5.50 380.3
4 17 51.80 37.90 0.46 4.49 384.8
4 18 48.20 35.60 0.10 2.48 387.3
4 19 50.00 36.00 0.17 3.32 390.6
4 20 48.20 33.10 0.60 2.23 392.8
4 21 57.00 41.00 0.00 8.00 400.8
4 22 66.20 50.00 0.30 17.10 417.9
4 23 55.40 46.00 0.07 9.70 427.6
4 24 57.90 41.00 0.01 8.45 436.1
4 25 66.90 35.60 0.00 11.22 447.3
4 26 75.90 39.90 0.00 16.98 464.3
4 27 79.00 44.60 0.00 20.80 485.1
4 28 89.60 55.40 0.00 31.50 516.6
4 29 78.10 48.00 0.00 22.05 538.6
4 30 62.10 44.10 0.00 12.10 550.7
5 1 62.60 44.60 0.00 12.60 563.3
5 2 64.40 48.00 0.00 15.20 578.5
5 3 70.00 42.80 0.03 15.40 593.9
5 4 55.40 46.00 0.41 9.70 603.6
5 5 60.80 46.40 0.00 12.60 616.2
5 6 63.00 44.10 0.00 12.55 628.8
5 7 64.00 46.00 0.00 14.00 642.8
5 8 63.00 44.60 0.00 12.80 655.6
5 9 64.90 42.80 0.00 12.85 668.4
5 10 73.90 39.20 0.00 15.72 684.1
5 11 77.00 46.00 0.00 20.50 704.6
5 12 86.00 46.40 0.00 25.20 729.8
5 13 91.40 50.00 0.00 29.70 759.5
5 14 90.00 53.60 0.00 30.80 790.3
5 15 84.90 57.00 0.00 29.95 820.3
5 16 84.90 51.10 0.00 27.00 847.3
5 17 91.40 53.10 0.00 31.25 878.5 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 18 75.90 53.10 0.00 23.50 902.0
5 19 82.90 50.00 0.00 25.45 927.5
5 20 80.60 53.10 0.00 25.85 953.3 Peak female adult emergence
5 21 66.90 46.40 0.00 15.65 969.0
5 22 64.40 43.00 0.00 12.70 981.7
5 23 66.20 42.80 0.00 13.50 995.2
5 24 75.20 46.00 0.00 19.60 1014.8 Peak egg laying
5 25 82.00 44.60 0.00 22.30 1037.1
5 26 82.40 48.20 0.00 24.30 1061.4
5 27 73.90 50.00 0.01 20.95 1082.3
5 28 75.20 44.10 0.00 18.65 1101.0
5 29 79.00 42.80 0.00 19.90 1120.9
5 30 68.00 42.80 0.00 14.40 1135.3
5 31 64.90 37.40 0.00 10.71 1146.0
6 1 72.00 35.60 0.00 13.70 1159.7
6 2 75.90 41.00 0.00 17.45 1177.2
6 3 79.00 41.00 0.00 19.00 1196.2
6 4 75.90 39.90 0.00 16.98 1213.1
6 5 82.90 42.80 0.00 21.85 1235.0
6 6 91.90 44.10 0.00 27.00 1262.0
6 7 79.00 51.10 0.00 24.05 1286.0 Peak egg hatch
6 8 70.00 50.00 0.00 19.00 1305.0
6 9 62.60 53.10 0.01 16.85 1321.9
6 10 75.90 53.10 0.00 23.50 1345.4
6 11 82.90 46.40 0.00 23.65 1369.0
6 12 88.00 51.10 0.00 28.55 1397.6
6 13 75.90 48.00 0.00 20.95 1418.5
6 14 70.00 44.10 0.00 16.05 1434.6
6 15 77.00 39.90 0.00 17.53 1452.1
6 16 81.00 46.00 0.00 22.50 1474.6
6 17 68.00 51.10 0.00 18.55 1493.2
6 18 61.00 46.90 0.11 12.95 1506.1
6 19 60.80 44.60 0.24 11.70 1517.8
6 20 66.20 48.20 0.00 16.20 1534.0
6 21 77.00 42.10 0.00 18.55 1552.6
6 22 87.80 55.00 0.00 30.40 1583.0
6 23 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 1606.4
6 24 82.90 44.60 0.00 22.75 1629.1
6 25 84.20 50.00 0.00 26.10 1655.2
6 26 81.00 51.10 0.00 25.05 1680.3
6 27 82.00 48.20 0.00 24.10 1704.4
6 28 87.80 51.80 0.00 28.80 1733.2
6 29 89.60 53.10 0.00 30.35 1763.5
6 30 89.60 53.10 0.00 30.35 1793.9
7 1 86.00 46.00 0.00 25.00 1818.9
7 2 87.80 50.00 0.00 27.90 1846.8
7 3 90.00 48.20 0.00 28.10 1874.9
7 4 95.00 48.20 0.00 30.60 1905.5
7 5 97.00 55.00 0.00 35.00 1940.5
7 6 88.00 55.00 0.00 30.50 1971.0
7 7 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 1994.4
7 8 78.80 53.10 0.00 24.95 2019.3
7 9 82.90 51.80 0.00 26.35 2045.7
7 10 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 2067.3
7 11 82.90 53.60 0.00 27.25 2094.5 Peak in density large larvae
7 12 86.00 55.40 0.00 29.70 2124.2
7 13 87.80 55.00 0.00 30.40 2154.6
7 14 93.20 53.10 0.00 32.15 2186.8
7 15 98.60 55.40 0.00 36.00 2222.8
7 16 91.90 55.00 0.00 32.45 2255.2
7 17 79.00 53.60 0.00 25.30 2280.5
7 18 87.80 51.10 0.00 28.45 2309.0
7 19 95.00 55.40 0.00 34.20 2343.2
7 20 86.00 55.40 0.00 29.70 2372.9
7 21 88.00 55.00 0.00 30.50 2403.4
7 22 90.00 55.00 0.00 31.50 2434.9
7 23 88.00 57.00 0.00 31.50 2466.4
7 24 75.90 53.10 0.00 23.50 2489.9
7 25 81.00 60.10 0.00 29.55 2519.4
7 26 84.90 48.90 0.00 25.90 2545.3
7 27 82.90 53.60 0.00 27.25 2572.6
7 28 87.20 54.10 0.00 29.65 2602.2 Hx Hn
7 29 89.50 54.10 0.00 30.80 2633.0 Hx Hn
7 30 92.80 56.40 0.00 33.60 2666.6 Hx Hn
7 31 91.50 56.20 0.00 32.85 2699.5 Hx Hn
8 1 89.60 50.00 0.00 28.80 2728.3
8 2 89.60 51.80 0.00 29.70 2758.0
8 3 88.00 51.10 0.00 28.55 2786.5
8 4 88.00 53.60 0.00 29.80 2816.3
8 5 87.80 60.80 0.03 33.30 2849.6
8 6 84.90 62.60 0.20 32.75 2882.4
8 7 86.00 60.10 0.00 32.05 2914.4
8 8 88.00 53.10 0.00 29.55 2944.0
8 9 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 2971.9
8 10 82.40 59.00 0.00 29.70 3001.6
8 11 87.10 51.80 0.00 28.45 3030.0
8 12 91.40 52.00 0.00 30.70 3060.7
8 13 100.90 57.00 0.00 37.95 3098.7
8 14 107.10 64.00 0.00 44.55 3143.2
8 15 100.90 64.90 0.00 41.90 3185.1
8 16 102.90 64.40 0.00 42.65 3227.8
8 17 93.90 64.00 0.00 37.95 3265.7
8 18 84.20 53.10 0.00 27.65 3293.4
8 19 91.40 44.10 0.00 26.75 3320.1
8 20 89.60 51.10 0.00 29.35 3349.5
8 21 81.00 51.10 0.00 25.05 3374.5
8 22 75.20 51.10 0.00 22.15 3396.7
8 23 79.00 48.90 0.00 22.95 3419.6
8 24 91.90 48.20 0.00 29.05 3448.7
8 25 91.90 62.10 0.05 36.00 3484.7
8 26 89.60 55.40 0.00 31.50 3516.2
8 27 82.50 57.80 0.00 29.15 3545.3 Vx Vn
8 28 70.00 57.20 0.00 22.60 3567.9
8 29 74.00 58.10 0.00 25.05 3593.0 Vx Vn
8 30 80.10 55.00 0.00 26.55 3619.5
8 31 64.40 57.20 0.72 19.80 3639.3
9 1 81.00 60.10 0.00 29.55 3668.9
9 2 89.10 55.40 0.24 31.25 3700.1
9 3 73.90 55.90 0.00 23.90 3724.0
9 4 66.90 53.10 0.01 19.00 3743.0
9 5 73.90 51.10 0.00 21.50 3764.5
9 6 79.00 44.60 0.00 20.80 3785.3
9 7 75.90 54.00 0.00 23.95 3809.3
9 8 80.10 46.00 0.00 22.05 3831.3
9 9 86.00 46.90 0.00 25.45 3856.8
9 10 82.40 51.80 0.00 26.10 3882.9
9 11 80.30 52.10 0.00 25.20 3908.1 Hx Hn
9 12 79.00 48.90 0.00 22.95 3931.0
9 13 82.00 52.00 0.00 26.00 3957.0
9 14 90.00 48.00 0.00 28.00 3985.0
9 15 93.90 48.90 0.00 30.40 4015.4
Forecast using: 1910 KMMV PRISM_rev1_4km 2013-2022 AVERAGES Lat45.1958 Long-123.1319 DD50
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2023 KMMV McMinnville Muni Apt 1910 KMMV PRISM_rev1_4km 2013-2022 AVERAGES Date | DDs | Event |
5-17-23 | 879 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
5-20-23 | 953 | Peak female adult emergence |
5-24-23 | 1015 | Peak egg laying |
6-7-23 | 1286 | Peak egg hatch |
7-11-23 | 2095 | Peak in density large larvae |