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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2023 KKLS METAR Kelso-Longview Airport WA Lat46.1167 Long:-122.9000 Elev:20
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 46.40 33.10 0.00 1.53 1.5 * START *
1 2 44.60 32.00 0.02 0.84 2.4
1 3 43.00 37.40 0.07 0.53 2.9
1 4 53.60 33.80 0.01 4.62 7.5
1 5 55.40 48.00 0.19 10.70 18.2
1 6 50.00 41.00 0.21 4.50 22.7
1 7 48.90 35.60 0.14 2.78 25.5
1 8 51.80 39.20 0.21 4.79 30.3
1 9 55.40 37.00 0.21 6.01 36.3
1 10 55.40 33.80 0.02 5.43 41.7
1 11 48.90 42.80 0.34 4.85 46.6
1 12 53.60 46.00 0.12 8.80 55.4
1 13 53.60 46.40 0.12 9.00 64.4
1 14 54.00 43.00 0.33 7.50 71.9
1 15 48.20 44.60 0.28 5.40 77.3
1 16 48.90 42.80 0.22 4.85 82.1
1 17 48.00 42.80 0.04 4.40 86.5
1 18 48.90 39.20 1.39 3.39 89.9
1 19 45.00 35.10 0.00 1.13 91.0
1 20 42.80 30.20 0.00 0.29 91.3
1 21 45.00 35.10 0.27 1.13 92.5
1 22 46.90 37.00 0.00 2.08 94.5
1 23 50.00 37.40 0.00 3.54 98.1
1 24 45.00 35.10 0.00 1.13 99.2
1 25 51.10 42.10 0.00 5.60 104.8
1 26 45.00 39.20 0.05 1.54 106.4
1 27 53.60 42.10 0.06 6.85 113.2
1 28 46.90 35.10 0.08 1.88 115.1
1 29 41.00 24.10 0.00 0.00 115.1
1 30 42.80 17.60 0.00 0.21 115.3
1 31 41.00 26.10 0.00 0.00 115.3
2 1 48.90 24.80 0.00 1.99 117.3
2 2 46.40 23.00 0.00 1.13 118.4
2 3 48.90 33.10 0.16 2.51 120.9
2 4 51.80 42.10 0.11 5.95 126.9
2 5 48.90 41.00 0.21 3.95 130.8
2 6 48.20 41.00 0.06 3.60 134.4
2 7 48.90 41.00 0.28 3.95 138.4
2 8 50.00 37.40 0.02 3.54 141.9
2 9 57.90 39.00 0.03 7.73 149.6
2 10 55.90 35.60 0.09 5.97 155.6
2 11 50.00 30.90 0.00 2.77 158.4
2 12 51.80 28.40 0.08 3.29 161.7
2 13 46.40 33.80 0.46 1.58 163.2
2 14 46.40 26.10 0.06 1.22 164.5
2 15 45.00 26.10 0.00 0.80 165.3
2 16 46.40 26.60 0.00 1.23 166.5
2 17 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 168.4
2 18 46.90 37.40 0.04 2.13 170.5
2 19 50.00 42.10 0.00 5.05 175.6
2 20 50.00 44.10 0.04 6.05 181.6
2 21 46.40 35.60 0.28 1.72 183.4
2 22 37.90 30.00 0.26 0.00 183.4
2 23 37.90 24.10 0.00 0.00 183.4
2 24 43.00 15.80 0.00 0.23 183.6
2 25 45.00 19.00 0.09 0.68 184.3
2 26 42.80 33.10 0.16 0.34 184.6
2 27 44.60 35.60 0.18 1.01 185.6
2 28 39.90 30.00 0.03 0.00 185.6
3 1 44.60 28.00 0.07 0.73 186.3
3 2 48.20 34.00 0.20 2.31 188.6
3 3 44.60 33.80 0.16 0.92 189.6
3 4 46.40 37.00 0.21 1.86 191.4
3 5 45.00 30.20 0.00 0.91 192.3
3 6 46.90 37.00 0.12 2.08 194.4
3 7 50.00 35.10 0.10 3.20 197.6
3 8 45.00 33.10 0.01 1.02 198.6
3 9 46.40 39.00 0.22 2.15 200.8
3 10 50.00 37.40 0.78 3.54 204.3
3 11 55.00 34.00 0.00 5.28 209.6
3 12 50.00 28.00 0.22 2.56 212.2
3 13 48.20 37.40 0.44 2.72 214.9
3 14 55.40 37.00 0.01 6.01 220.9
3 15 53.60 35.10 0.04 4.81 225.7
3 16 63.00 28.00 0.00 8.01 233.7
3 17 64.90 28.00 0.00 8.86 242.6
3 18 66.90 37.90 0.00 11.83 254.4
3 19 57.20 39.20 0.00 7.44 261.8
3 20 51.80 44.60 2.48 7.20 269.0
3 21 61.00 39.00 0.01 9.26 278.3
3 22 64.90 35.10 0.06 10.14 288.4
3 23 46.90 37.40 0.23 2.13 290.6
3 24 44.60 35.60 0.36 1.01 291.6
3 25 48.20 33.80 0.09 2.29 293.9
3 26 46.40 33.80 0.16 1.58 295.5
3 27 57.20 30.20 0.00 5.73 301.2
3 28 55.90 42.80 0.10 8.35 309.5
3 29 59.00 39.20 0.03 8.33 317.9
3 30 54.00 42.80 0.00 7.40 325.3
3 31 48.20 42.80 0.51 4.50 329.8
4 1 50.00 37.40 0.29 3.54 333.3
4 2 46.40 37.00 0.22 1.86 335.2
4 3 48.90 35.60 0.04 2.78 338.0
4 4 51.80 37.00 0.02 4.31 342.3
4 5 52.00 37.00 0.08 4.40 346.7
4 6 54.00 46.00 0.37 9.00 355.7
4 7 52.00 45.00 0.55 7.50 363.2
4 8 54.00 44.60 0.06 8.30 371.5
4 9 54.00 48.00 0.76 10.00 381.5
4 10 48.20 42.10 0.85 4.15 385.6
4 11 54.00 41.00 0.34 6.50 392.1
4 12 53.60 33.10 0.23 4.52 396.6
4 13 54.00 33.80 0.00 4.80 401.4
4 14 61.00 32.00 0.00 7.70 409.1
4 15 59.00 37.40 0.00 7.83 417.0
4 16 52.00 39.90 0.33 5.09 422.1
4 17 51.80 37.40 0.30 4.38 426.4
4 18 48.90 37.40 0.17 3.03 429.5
4 19 50.00 39.00 0.13 3.87 433.4
4 20 46.90 37.00 0.54 2.08 435.4
4 21 57.90 42.80 0.01 9.35 444.8
4 22 64.90 46.00 0.42 14.45 459.2
4 23 55.40 46.40 0.06 9.90 469.1
4 24 57.90 44.10 0.09 10.00 479.1
4 25 66.20 42.80 0.00 13.50 492.6
4 26 75.20 41.00 0.00 17.10 509.7
4 27 78.80 44.10 0.00 20.45 530.2
4 28 91.40 46.40 0.00 27.90 558.1
4 29 79.00 48.20 0.00 22.60 580.7
4 30 63.00 50.00 0.00 15.50 596.2
5 1 59.00 46.00 0.00 11.50 607.7
5 2 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 626.6
5 3 70.00 48.00 0.00 18.00 644.6
5 4 52.00 48.00 0.61 9.00 653.6
5 5 55.40 48.20 0.12 10.80 664.4
5 6 60.80 50.00 0.02 14.40 678.8
5 7 62.60 44.10 0.00 12.35 691.1
5 8 70.00 37.40 0.00 13.21 704.3
5 9 68.00 46.00 0.00 16.00 720.3
5 10 75.90 41.00 0.00 17.45 737.8
5 11 78.80 44.60 0.00 20.70 758.5
5 12 87.80 46.00 0.00 25.90 784.4
5 13 93.20 50.00 0.00 30.60 815.0
5 14 95.00 53.10 0.00 33.05 848.0
5 15 86.00 55.40 0.03 29.70 877.7 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 16 81.00 55.40 0.00 27.20 904.9
5 17 87.80 55.40 0.00 30.60 935.5
5 18 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 958.0 Peak female adult emergence
5 19 79.00 55.40 0.00 26.20 984.2
5 20 73.90 55.00 0.00 23.45 1007.7 Peak egg laying
5 21 63.00 48.00 0.00 14.50 1022.2
5 22 64.40 46.00 0.02 14.20 1036.4
5 23 64.90 45.00 0.00 13.95 1050.3
5 24 73.90 44.60 0.00 18.25 1068.6
5 25 82.40 46.00 0.00 23.20 1091.8
5 26 80.60 53.10 0.00 25.85 1117.6
5 27 69.80 51.10 0.00 19.45 1137.1
5 28 69.80 51.10 0.00 19.45 1156.5
5 29 71.60 48.20 0.00 18.90 1175.4
5 30 64.90 46.40 0.00 14.65 1190.1
5 31 66.20 37.40 0.00 11.35 1201.4
6 1 70.00 39.00 0.00 13.72 1215.2
6 2 73.90 41.00 0.00 16.45 1231.6
6 3 75.20 42.10 0.00 17.65 1249.3
6 4 75.90 41.00 0.00 17.45 1266.7
6 5 80.10 46.40 0.00 22.25 1289.0 Peak egg hatch
6 6 88.00 46.90 0.00 26.45 1315.4
6 7 79.00 53.10 0.00 25.05 1340.5
6 8 71.60 55.40 0.01 22.50 1363.0
6 9 59.00 53.60 0.39 15.30 1378.3
6 10 68.00 51.10 0.66 18.55 1396.8
6 11 73.90 51.80 0.00 21.85 1418.7
6 12 84.90 55.40 0.00 29.15 1447.8
6 13 66.90 55.00 0.00 19.95 1467.8
6 14 64.90 48.90 0.00 15.90 1483.7
6 15 73.40 43.00 0.00 17.20 1500.9
6 16 75.90 48.00 0.00 20.95 1521.8
6 17 62.60 53.10 0.05 16.85 1538.7
6 18 60.80 46.00 0.16 12.40 1551.1
6 19 64.90 42.10 0.01 12.50 1563.6
6 20 64.40 48.20 0.03 15.30 1578.9
6 21 77.00 46.00 0.00 20.50 1599.4
6 22 84.20 51.80 0.00 27.00 1626.4
6 23 72.00 54.00 0.00 22.00 1648.4
6 24 79.00 51.10 0.00 24.05 1672.4
6 25 78.80 51.10 0.00 23.95 1696.4
6 26 73.40 55.00 0.00 23.20 1719.6
6 27 73.90 55.40 0.00 23.65 1743.2
6 28 80.60 57.20 0.00 27.90 1771.1
6 29 84.20 57.20 0.00 29.70 1800.8
6 30 75.90 55.40 0.00 24.65 1825.5
7 1 80.60 50.00 0.00 24.30 1849.8
7 2 84.90 51.10 0.00 27.00 1876.8
7 3 88.00 50.00 0.00 28.00 1904.8
7 4 93.90 51.10 0.00 31.50 1936.3
7 5 96.10 53.10 0.00 33.60 1969.9
7 6 77.00 57.20 0.00 26.10 1996.0
7 7 71.60 57.00 0.00 23.30 2019.3
7 8 75.90 55.40 0.00 24.65 2043.9
7 9 78.80 48.20 0.00 22.50 2066.4
7 10 66.90 59.00 0.00 21.95 2088.4 Peak in density large larvae
7 11 79.00 60.10 0.00 28.55 2116.9
7 12 79.00 59.00 0.00 28.00 2144.9
7 13 84.20 51.80 0.00 27.00 2171.9
7 14 91.90 53.60 0.00 31.75 2203.7
7 15 91.90 55.00 0.00 32.45 2236.1
7 16 84.90 59.00 0.04 30.95 2267.1
7 17 75.90 57.90 0.04 25.90 2293.0
7 18 84.90 51.10 0.00 27.00 2320.0
7 19 95.00 57.20 0.00 35.10 2355.1
7 20 82.90 60.80 0.00 30.85 2385.9
7 21 84.20 60.10 0.00 31.15 2417.1
7 22 84.90 60.10 0.00 31.50 2448.6
7 23 84.20 57.20 0.00 29.70 2478.3
7 24 73.90 53.60 0.07 22.75 2501.0
7 25 78.80 55.00 0.00 25.90 2526.9
7 26 81.00 50.00 0.00 24.50 2551.4
7 27 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 2577.5
7 28 81.50 55.70 0.00 27.60 2605.1 Hx Hn
7 29 83.50 55.70 0.00 28.60 2633.7 Hx Hn
7 30 87.20 56.90 0.00 31.05 2664.8 Hx Hn
7 31 87.70 57.40 0.00 31.55 2696.3 Hx Hn
8 1 87.80 51.10 0.00 28.45 2724.8
8 2 84.90 51.10 0.00 27.00 2751.8
8 3 84.90 53.60 0.00 28.25 2780.0
8 4 84.90 55.00 0.00 28.95 2809.0
8 5 73.90 64.00 0.00 27.95 2836.9
8 6 77.00 64.00 0.00 29.50 2866.4
8 7 81.00 64.00 0.00 31.50 2897.9
8 8 82.90 63.00 0.00 31.95 2929.9
8 9 75.00 59.00 0.02 26.00 2955.9
8 10 78.10 57.00 0.00 26.55 2982.4
8 11 82.90 51.80 0.00 26.35 3008.8
8 12 89.10 55.90 0.00 31.50 3040.3
8 13 98.60 61.00 0.00 38.80 3079.1
8 14 102.20 64.00 0.00 42.10 3121.2
8 15 100.90 66.20 0.00 42.55 3163.7
8 16 99.00 64.00 0.00 40.50 3204.2
8 17 84.20 63.00 0.00 32.60 3236.8
8 18 75.90 55.90 0.00 24.90 3261.7
8 19 86.00 46.90 0.00 25.45 3287.2
8 20 86.00 52.00 0.00 28.00 3315.2
8 21 77.00 52.00 0.00 23.50 3338.7
8 22 69.80 53.10 0.05 20.45 3359.1
8 23 78.10 57.90 0.00 27.00 3386.1
8 24 87.80 53.10 0.00 29.45 3415.6
8 25 91.40 60.10 0.14 34.75 3450.3
8 26 91.90 57.90 0.00 33.90 3484.2
8 27 78.10 62.10 0.00 29.10 3513.3
8 28 68.00 63.00 0.00 24.50 3537.8
8 29 71.10 61.00 0.08 25.05 3562.9
8 30 75.20 59.00 0.07 26.10 3589.0
8 31 64.40 59.00 0.78 20.70 3609.7
9 1 81.00 57.20 0.04 28.10 3637.8
9 2 90.00 55.00 0.00 31.50 3669.3
9 3 70.00 55.90 0.02 21.95 3691.2
9 4 66.20 51.10 0.03 17.65 3708.9
9 5 70.00 46.00 0.00 17.00 3725.9
9 6 75.00 48.00 0.00 20.50 3746.4
9 7 73.40 54.00 0.00 22.70 3769.1
9 8 79.00 48.00 0.00 22.50 3791.6
9 9 86.00 48.00 0.00 26.00 3817.6
9 10 79.00 53.10 0.00 25.05 3842.6
9 11 77.00 52.90 0.00 23.95 3866.6 Hx Hn
9 12 72.00 62.10 0.02 26.05 3892.6
9 13 80.10 57.90 0.00 28.00 3920.6
9 14 88.00 48.20 0.00 27.10 3947.7
9 15 91.90 48.20 0.00 29.05 3976.8
Forecast using: 1910 KKLS PRISM_rev1_4km 2013-2022 AVERAGES Lat46.1167 Long-122.9000 DD50
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2023 KKLS Kelso-Longview Airport WA 1910 KKLS PRISM_rev1_4km 2013-2022 AVERAGES | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-15-23 | 878 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-18-23 | 958 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-20-23 | 1008 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-5-23 | 1289 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-10-23 | 2088 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?2364288)
