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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2017 KKLS METAR Kelso-Longview Airport WA Lat46.1167 Long:-122.9000 Elev:20
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 36.00 33.10 0.58 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 37.40 24.80 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 3 37.40 17.60 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 4 37.40 16.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 5 36.00 10.40 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 6 34.00 14.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 7 36.00 21.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 8 39.20 28.00 0.20 0.00 0.0
1 9 39.20 33.10 0.35 0.00 0.0
1 10 43.00 32.00 3.02 0.37 0.4
1 11 34.00 28.00 0.16 0.00 0.4
1 12 36.00 17.60 0.00 0.00 0.4
1 13 30.90 21.00 0.00 0.00 0.4
1 14 35.10 17.10 0.00 0.00 0.4
1 15 32.00 19.40 0.00 0.00 0.4
1 16 33.80 24.10 0.00 0.00 0.4
1 17 37.00 28.00 0.96 0.00 0.4
1 18 48.20 35.60 0.73 2.48 2.8
1 19 50.00 39.90 0.06 4.11 7.0
1 20 46.40 33.10 0.03 1.53 8.5
1 21 46.40 35.60 0.07 1.72 10.2
1 22 51.80 35.10 0.09 4.00 14.2
1 23 52.00 28.90 0.00 3.41 17.6
1 24 39.00 26.10 0.00 0.00 17.6
1 25 45.00 37.00 0.00 1.27 18.9
1 26 48.20 33.00 0.00 2.22 21.1
1 27 48.90 30.00 0.00 2.27 23.4
1 28 46.40 35.10 0.00 1.68 25.0
1 29 45.00 35.10 0.00 1.13 26.2
1 30 47.00 41.00 0.00 3.00 29.2
1 31 48.20 30.00 0.00 2.01 31.2
2 1 45.00 26.10 0.00 0.80 32.0
2 2 46.40 30.00 0.05 1.36 33.3
2 3 37.40 33.80 0.18 0.00 33.3
2 4 52.00 35.10 0.52 4.09 37.4
2 5 45.00 32.00 1.68 0.97 38.4
2 6 41.00 32.00 0.16 0.00 38.4
2 7 41.00 32.00 0.05 0.00 38.4
2 8 42.10 35.60 1.06 0.20 38.6
2 9 60.80 39.00 0.60 9.16 47.8
2 10 50.00 37.00 0.05 3.47 51.2
2 11 51.80 35.10 0.01 4.00 55.2
2 12 51.10 30.00 0.00 3.14 58.4
2 13 59.00 26.60 0.00 6.09 64.5
2 14 51.80 30.00 0.30 3.42 67.9
2 15 51.80 41.00 1.06 5.40 73.3
2 16 52.00 46.00 0.71 8.00 81.3
2 17 55.90 42.10 0.00 8.00 89.3
2 18 48.00 42.80 0.25 4.40 93.7
2 19 46.40 42.10 0.48 3.25 96.9
2 20 48.20 42.10 0.35 4.15 101.1
2 21 52.00 35.10 0.12 4.09 105.2
2 22 45.00 33.10 0.01 1.02 106.2
2 23 46.00 33.10 0.01 1.38 107.6
2 24 44.10 33.80 0.10 0.75 108.3
2 25 48.20 28.40 0.00 1.92 110.2
2 26 43.00 35.10 0.27 0.44 110.7
2 27 42.80 35.60 0.30 0.39 111.1
2 28 46.90 35.60 0.02 1.93 113.0
3 1 50.00 41.00 0.10 4.50 117.5
3 2 48.90 42.10 0.06 4.50 122.0
3 3 52.00 41.00 0.52 5.50 127.5
3 4 46.90 35.60 0.15 1.93 129.4
3 5 46.40 35.60 0.26 1.72 131.1
3 6 44.60 33.10 0.26 0.88 132.0
3 7 46.40 39.00 0.43 2.15 134.2
3 8 44.60 41.00 0.45 1.80 136.0
3 9 55.40 42.10 2.84 7.75 143.7
3 10 57.00 41.00 0.04 8.00 151.7
3 11 54.00 37.90 0.29 5.54 157.3
3 12 62.60 44.10 0.00 12.35 169.6
3 13 54.00 50.00 0.96 11.00 180.6
3 14 59.00 51.80 1.00 14.40 195.0
3 15 57.20 46.00 0.88 10.60 205.6
3 16 55.40 37.00 0.06 6.01 211.6
3 17 48.90 33.80 0.54 2.58 214.2
3 18 53.60 35.10 0.31 4.81 219.0
3 19 55.40 30.20 0.00 4.95 224.0
3 20 53.10 35.10 0.12 4.59 228.6
3 21 60.80 44.10 1.27 11.45 240.0
3 22 55.40 44.10 0.01 8.75 248.8
3 23 55.90 42.80 0.37 8.35 257.1
3 24 54.00 45.00 0.09 8.50 265.6
3 25 50.00 42.80 0.10 5.40 271.0
3 26 50.00 42.80 0.51 5.40 276.4
3 27 54.00 44.60 0.14 8.30 284.7
3 28 55.90 44.60 0.35 9.25 294.0
3 29 57.90 44.60 0.25 10.25 304.2
3 30 55.90 44.10 0.16 9.00 313.2
3 31 60.80 42.10 0.00 10.45 323.7
4 1 59.00 48.00 0.02 12.50 336.2
4 2 55.90 39.00 0.00 6.75 342.9
4 3 59.00 32.00 0.00 6.79 349.7
4 4 56.40 36.80 0.00 6.44 356.1 Hx Hn
4 5 55.40 46.00 0.36 9.70 365.8
4 6 60.80 44.60 0.54 11.70 377.5
4 7 57.20 45.00 0.30 10.10 387.6
4 8 52.00 42.10 0.11 6.05 393.7
4 9 57.20 41.00 0.17 8.10 401.8
4 10 55.90 42.10 0.04 8.00 409.8
4 11 61.00 33.80 0.39 8.02 417.8
4 12 64.40 46.00 0.56 14.20 432.0
4 13 52.00 44.10 0.07 7.05 439.1
4 14 53.60 41.00 0.47 6.30 445.4
4 15 61.00 39.20 0.00 9.32 454.7
4 16 66.90 37.40 0.00 11.69 466.4
4 17 59.00 48.00 0.12 12.50 478.9
4 18 62.60 46.00 0.20 13.30 492.2
4 19 57.20 46.00 0.42 10.60 502.8
4 20 55.90 44.10 0.38 9.00 511.8
4 21 71.60 39.00 0.00 14.51 526.3
4 22 60.80 46.00 0.23 12.40 538.7
4 23 54.00 44.60 0.45 8.30 547.0
4 24 53.10 44.60 0.74 7.85 554.8
4 25 53.60 44.60 0.11 8.10 562.9
4 26 57.90 44.10 0.12 10.00 572.9
4 27 57.00 41.00 0.11 8.00 580.9
4 28 59.00 41.00 0.00 9.00 589.9
4 29 63.00 37.40 0.36 9.78 599.7
4 30 57.90 41.00 0.59 8.45 608.2
5 1 53.60 37.40 0.01 5.24 613.4
5 2 61.00 48.20 0.11 13.60 627.0
5 3 82.40 57.00 0.01 28.70 655.7
5 4 78.80 55.00 0.11 25.90 681.6
5 5 57.90 46.40 0.33 11.15 692.7
5 6 59.00 37.40 0.01 7.83 700.6
5 7 64.90 37.40 0.00 10.71 711.3
5 8 71.60 39.20 0.00 14.58 725.9
5 9 73.90 41.00 0.00 16.45 742.3
5 10 72.00 44.60 0.06 17.30 759.6
5 11 57.90 51.10 1.92 13.50 773.1
5 12 57.20 45.00 0.05 10.10 783.2
5 13 54.00 46.00 0.27 9.00 792.2
5 14 60.80 43.00 0.05 10.90 803.1
5 15 55.90 41.00 0.68 7.45 810.6
5 16 53.10 46.00 0.25 8.55 819.1
5 17 57.20 48.00 0.03 11.60 830.7
5 18 71.60 41.00 0.00 15.30 846.0
5 19 73.90 51.10 0.00 21.50 867.5 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 20 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 890.0
5 21 84.20 51.10 0.00 26.65 916.7
5 22 90.00 55.40 0.00 31.70 948.4
5 23 75.20 48.90 0.00 21.05 969.4 Peak female adult emergence
5 24 63.00 46.00 0.00 13.50 982.9
5 25 73.90 44.60 0.00 18.25 1001.2 Peak egg laying
5 26 84.20 46.40 0.00 24.30 1025.5
5 27 86.00 48.20 0.00 26.10 1051.6
5 28 73.90 53.10 0.00 22.50 1074.1
5 29 69.80 53.10 0.00 20.45 1094.5
5 30 60.80 51.80 0.00 15.30 1109.8
5 31 73.90 50.00 0.04 20.95 1130.8
6 1 64.90 53.60 0.44 18.25 1149.0
6 2 75.00 53.60 0.00 23.30 1172.3
6 3 66.20 53.60 0.00 18.90 1191.2
6 4 64.90 46.90 0.00 14.90 1206.1
6 5 77.00 42.10 0.00 18.55 1224.7
6 6 84.20 48.00 0.00 25.10 1249.8
6 7 75.90 53.10 0.09 23.50 1273.3 Peak egg hatch
6 8 61.00 51.10 0.14 15.05 1288.3
6 9 63.00 48.00 0.55 14.50 1302.8
6 10 63.00 46.40 0.01 13.70 1316.5
6 11 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 1334.5
6 12 61.00 48.20 0.10 13.60 1348.1
6 13 64.40 50.00 0.03 16.20 1364.3
6 14 63.00 46.00 0.04 13.50 1377.8
6 15 61.00 53.10 0.50 16.05 1393.9
6 16 61.00 55.40 0.06 17.20 1411.1
6 17 69.80 53.10 0.04 20.45 1431.5
6 18 78.80 55.40 0.29 26.10 1457.6
6 19 68.00 60.80 0.00 23.40 1481.0
6 20 73.40 53.10 0.00 22.25 1503.3
6 21 71.60 44.60 0.00 17.10 1520.4
6 22 80.60 50.00 0.00 24.30 1544.7
6 23 88.00 51.10 0.00 28.55 1573.2
6 24 96.10 55.00 0.00 34.55 1607.8
6 25 93.90 57.00 0.00 34.45 1642.2
6 26 72.00 55.90 0.00 22.95 1665.2
6 27 75.00 55.40 0.00 24.20 1689.4
6 28 69.80 57.00 0.00 22.40 1711.8
6 29 81.00 55.40 0.00 27.20 1739.0
6 30 75.90 57.20 0.00 25.55 1764.5
7 1 73.40 55.40 0.00 23.40 1787.9
7 2 78.80 53.10 0.00 24.95 1812.9
7 3 73.90 55.90 0.00 23.90 1836.8
7 4 82.90 51.80 0.00 26.35 1863.1
7 5 88.00 48.20 0.00 27.10 1890.2
7 6 84.20 53.60 0.00 27.90 1918.1
7 7 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 1940.6
7 8 84.90 48.00 0.00 25.45 1966.1
7 9 79.00 55.40 0.00 26.20 1992.3
7 10 73.00 55.00 0.00 23.00 2015.3
7 11 75.90 46.00 0.00 19.95 2035.2
7 12 79.00 48.20 0.00 22.60 2057.8
7 13 75.00 55.90 0.65 24.45 2082.3 Peak in density large larvae
7 14 82.90 48.20 0.00 24.55 2106.8
7 15 75.90 51.10 0.00 22.50 2129.3
7 16 73.90 46.40 0.00 19.15 2148.5
7 17 81.00 46.40 0.66 22.70 2171.2
7 18 81.00 50.00 0.00 24.50 2195.7
7 19 79.00 51.10 0.00 24.05 2219.7
7 20 71.60 54.00 0.02 21.80 2241.5
7 21 80.60 50.00 0.00 24.30 2265.8
7 22 87.80 57.20 0.00 31.50 2297.3
7 23 80.60 59.00 0.00 28.80 2326.1
7 24 87.80 53.60 0.00 29.70 2355.8
7 25 86.00 57.20 0.00 30.60 2386.4
7 26 79.00 57.00 0.00 27.00 2413.4
7 27 75.20 57.00 0.00 25.10 2438.5
7 28 75.90 48.20 0.00 21.05 2459.6
7 29 82.90 50.00 0.00 25.45 2485.0
7 30 84.20 55.40 0.00 28.80 2513.8
7 31 89.60 53.10 0.00 30.35 2544.2
8 1 93.90 53.60 0.00 32.75 2576.9
8 2 98.60 60.80 0.00 38.70 2615.6
8 3 102.20 62.60 0.00 41.40 2657.0
8 4 86.00 59.00 0.00 31.50 2688.5
8 5 86.00 59.00 0.00 31.50 2720.0
8 6 84.90 57.20 0.00 30.05 2750.1
8 7 81.00 60.80 0.00 29.90 2780.0
8 8 84.20 60.80 0.00 31.50 2811.5
8 9 82.90 60.10 0.00 30.50 2842.0
8 10 81.00 60.10 0.00 29.55 2871.5
8 11 75.20 59.00 0.00 26.10 2897.6
8 12 79.00 60.10 0.12 28.55 2926.2
8 13 73.40 55.00 0.07 23.20 2949.4
8 14 73.40 51.10 0.00 21.25 2970.6
8 15 81.00 48.20 0.00 23.60 2994.2
8 16 79.00 51.00 0.00 24.00 3018.2
8 17 77.00 57.20 0.00 26.10 3044.3
8 18 75.90 51.10 0.00 22.50 3066.8
8 19 75.90 55.40 0.00 24.65 3091.5
8 20 79.00 51.10 0.00 24.05 3115.5
8 21 88.00 55.00 0.00 30.50 3146.0
8 22 79.00 55.00 0.00 26.00 3172.0
8 23 81.00 59.00 0.00 29.00 3201.0
8 24 73.90 55.90 0.00 23.90 3224.9
8 25 81.00 48.00 0.00 23.50 3248.4
8 26 88.00 51.10 0.00 28.55 3277.0
8 27 96.80 55.40 0.00 35.10 3312.1
8 28 98.60 57.00 0.00 36.80 3348.9
8 29 78.80 60.10 0.00 28.45 3377.3
8 30 78.80 60.80 0.00 28.80 3406.1
8 31 80.60 60.10 0.00 29.35 3435.5
9 1 89.60 51.80 0.00 29.70 3465.2
9 2 96.80 57.00 0.00 35.90 3501.1
9 3 96.80 57.20 0.00 36.00 3537.1
9 4 95.00 57.20 0.00 35.10 3572.2
9 5 89.60 62.60 0.00 35.10 3607.3
9 6 81.00 59.00 0.00 29.00 3636.3
9 7 79.00 62.60 0.00 29.80 3666.1
9 8 72.00 60.10 0.00 25.05 3691.1
9 9 75.90 60.10 0.03 27.00 3718.1
9 10 78.10 55.00 0.00 25.55 3743.7
9 11 89.60 48.90 0.00 28.25 3771.9
9 12 79.00 53.10 0.00 25.05 3797.0
9 13 72.00 44.10 0.00 17.05 3814.0
9 14 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 3836.5
9 15 80.10 42.10 0.00 20.10 3856.6
Forecast using: 1910 KKLS PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES Lat46.1167 Long-122.9000 DD50
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2017 KKLS Kelso-Longview Airport WA 1910 KKLS PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES Date | DDs | Event |
5-19-17 | 868 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
5-23-17 | 969 | Peak female adult emergence |
5-25-17 | 1001 | Peak egg laying |
6-7-17 | 1273 | Peak egg hatch |
7-13-17 | 2082 | Peak in density large larvae |