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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2023 HPROS HMMN Prosser Barricade Hanf WA Lat:46.3919 Long:-119.4119 Elev:479
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 34.50 28.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 34.40 30.90 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 3 39.10 28.50 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 4 38.00 25.90 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 5 45.70 30.20 0.00 1.14 1.1
1 6 43.60 23.80 0.00 0.41 1.5
1 7 39.10 29.20 0.00 0.00 1.5
1 8 39.80 32.00 0.00 0.00 1.5
1 9 41.90 28.80 0.00 0.10 1.6
1 10 43.20 26.40 0.00 0.34 2.0
1 11 40.80 32.10 0.00 0.00 2.0
1 12 42.20 36.70 0.00 0.24 2.2
1 13 44.60 34.40 0.00 0.94 3.2
1 14 46.00 34.20 0.00 1.45 4.6
1 15 47.20 31.70 0.00 1.74 6.4
1 16 51.50 27.10 0.00 3.07 9.4
1 17 34.70 22.60 0.00 0.00 9.4
1 18 35.40 31.70 0.00 0.00 9.4
1 19 50.20 24.70 0.00 2.44 11.9
1 20 41.50 18.70 0.00 0.03 11.9
1 21 36.80 17.00 0.00 0.00 11.9
1 22 39.90 22.30 0.00 0.00 11.9
1 23 42.40 19.90 0.00 0.15 12.1
1 24 43.30 18.00 0.00 0.30 12.4
1 25 43.20 23.20 0.00 0.31 12.7
1 26 37.10 22.70 0.00 0.00 12.7
1 27 58.90 32.70 0.00 6.85 19.5
1 28 45.00 26.20 0.00 0.80 20.3
1 29 32.80 9.50 0.00 0.00 20.3
1 30 32.90 4.10 0.00 0.00 20.3
1 31 28.80 21.50 0.00 0.00 20.3
2 1 35.90 18.60 0.00 0.00 20.3
2 2 41.80 15.80 0.00 0.06 20.4
2 3 39.80 18.00 0.00 0.00 20.4
2 4 53.00 36.20 0.00 4.72 25.1
2 5 48.10 33.40 0.00 2.22 27.3
2 6 54.40 32.20 0.00 4.76 32.1
2 7 51.30 40.10 0.00 4.81 36.9
2 8 53.60 29.30 0.00 4.09 41.0
2 9 49.30 25.40 0.00 2.16 43.1
2 10 46.40 26.50 0.00 1.23 44.4
2 11 51.60 19.70 0.00 2.69 47.1
2 12 52.30 21.60 0.00 3.03 50.1
2 13 54.80 35.00 0.00 5.35 55.4
2 14 50.90 28.70 0.00 2.95 58.4
2 15 48.30 22.20 0.00 1.69 60.1
2 16 48.30 19.20 0.00 1.59 61.7
2 17 55.50 32.70 0.00 5.31 67.0
2 18 58.90 33.00 0.00 6.90 73.9
2 19 57.30 35.60 0.00 6.62 80.5
2 20 59.60 46.70 0.00 12.15 92.7
2 21 52.50 38.60 0.00 4.98 97.6
2 22 38.50 22.50 0.00 0.00 97.6
2 23 23.90 16.70 0.00 0.00 97.6
2 24 30.90 9.20 0.00 0.00 97.6
2 25 37.00 9.70 0.00 0.00 97.6
2 26 52.60 15.80 0.00 2.86 100.5
2 27 38.20 23.20 0.00 0.00 100.5
2 28 47.90 27.90 0.00 1.79 102.3
3 1 49.90 24.40 0.00 2.32 104.6
3 2 55.70 36.10 0.00 5.97 110.6
3 3 51.40 32.10 0.00 3.46 114.0
3 4 48.60 22.70 0.00 1.80 115.8
3 5 52.70 23.70 0.00 3.30 119.1
3 6 51.10 29.50 0.00 3.09 122.2
3 7 52.60 24.30 0.00 3.30 125.5
3 8 46.70 24.30 0.00 1.25 126.8
3 9 49.60 23.60 0.00 2.18 129.0
3 10 53.10 32.60 0.00 4.24 133.2
3 11 55.80 30.10 0.00 5.11 138.3
3 12 49.70 23.20 0.00 2.19 140.5
3 13 63.50 34.60 0.00 9.36 149.9
3 14 50.40 27.30 0.00 2.67 152.5
3 15 56.70 25.50 0.00 5.02 157.6
3 16 56.90 24.40 0.00 5.00 162.6
3 17 58.20 22.90 0.00 5.39 168.0
3 18 62.00 28.80 0.00 7.67 175.6
3 19 57.90 28.70 0.00 5.85 181.5
3 20 51.90 43.90 0.00 6.90 188.4
3 21 59.90 38.30 0.00 8.51 196.9
3 22 63.60 30.10 0.00 8.59 205.5
3 23 60.10 40.20 0.00 9.22 214.7
3 24 54.60 34.80 0.00 5.22 219.9
3 25 54.40 28.30 0.00 4.33 224.2
3 26 57.30 30.00 0.00 5.75 230.0
3 27 57.90 20.40 0.00 5.07 235.1
3 28 55.00 37.30 0.00 5.88 241.0
3 29 54.00 41.00 0.00 6.50 247.5
3 30 62.30 30.80 0.00 8.10 255.6
3 31 56.50 33.10 0.00 5.82 261.4
4 1 57.70 37.00 0.00 7.11 268.5
4 2 55.50 34.20 0.00 5.54 274.0
4 3 53.10 32.20 0.00 4.19 278.2
4 4 56.50 27.40 0.00 5.12 283.3
4 5 58.10 23.80 0.00 5.43 288.8
4 6 63.50 31.30 0.00 8.74 297.5
4 7 64.70 46.00 0.00 14.35 311.9
4 8 62.30 39.20 0.00 9.96 321.8
4 9 69.00 44.60 0.00 15.80 337.6
4 10 58.00 48.30 0.00 12.15 349.8
4 11 58.90 34.30 0.00 7.13 356.9
4 12 57.70 26.90 0.00 5.57 362.5
4 13 59.40 28.70 0.00 6.51 369.0
4 14 62.80 34.20 0.00 8.94 377.9
4 15 65.40 29.30 0.00 9.28 387.2
4 16 64.80 40.10 0.00 11.52 398.7
4 17 60.40 36.40 0.00 8.27 407.0
4 18 58.90 38.20 0.00 7.99 415.0
4 19 61.20 34.10 0.00 8.17 423.2
4 20 54.20 28.60 0.00 4.28 427.4
4 21 58.20 35.30 0.00 6.99 434.4
4 22 69.50 41.60 0.00 14.55 449.0
4 23 74.10 46.00 0.00 19.05 468.0
4 24 68.30 45.50 0.00 15.90 483.9
4 25 72.60 32.30 0.00 13.21 497.1
4 26 80.10 35.80 0.00 17.71 514.8
4 27 79.00 45.40 0.00 21.20 536.0
4 28 84.50 36.30 0.00 20.03 556.1
4 29 89.30 45.10 0.00 26.20 582.3
4 30 87.30 46.70 0.00 26.00 608.3
5 1 75.50 49.90 0.00 21.70 630.0
5 2 74.00 46.40 0.00 19.20 649.2
5 3 91.00 45.60 0.00 27.30 676.5
5 4 83.20 54.60 0.00 27.90 704.4
5 5 60.00 51.90 0.00 14.95 719.3
5 6 72.50 50.50 0.00 20.50 739.8
5 7 68.80 48.30 0.00 17.55 757.4
5 8 75.80 38.90 0.00 16.56 773.9
5 9 74.10 46.80 0.00 19.45 793.4
5 10 79.30 38.50 0.00 18.16 811.5
5 11 83.10 40.50 0.00 20.82 832.4
5 12 87.70 40.70 0.00 23.21 855.6 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 13 91.60 47.70 0.00 28.65 884.2
5 14 92.40 62.50 0.00 36.45 920.7
5 15 91.50 61.80 0.00 35.65 956.3 Peak female adult emergence
5 16 84.10 62.10 0.00 32.10 988.4
5 17 87.50 52.30 0.00 28.90 1017.3 Peak egg laying
5 18 96.10 55.40 0.00 34.75 1052.1
5 19 98.50 57.60 0.00 37.05 1089.1
5 20 100.60 65.60 0.00 42.10 1131.2
5 21 87.00 55.90 0.00 30.45 1161.7
5 22 77.00 52.40 0.00 23.70 1185.4
5 23 77.40 45.20 0.00 20.30 1205.7
5 24 83.20 42.70 0.00 21.95 1227.6
5 25 81.40 53.50 0.00 26.45 1254.1
5 26 82.80 61.70 0.00 31.25 1285.3 Peak egg hatch
5 27 88.80 51.20 0.00 29.00 1314.3
5 28 88.90 53.40 0.00 30.15 1344.5
5 29 91.10 53.50 0.00 31.30 1375.8
5 30 87.60 49.40 0.00 27.50 1403.3
5 31 80.60 49.10 0.00 23.85 1427.1
6 1 82.30 40.70 0.00 20.51 1447.6
6 2 86.00 46.70 0.00 25.35 1473.0
6 3 90.90 50.30 0.00 29.60 1502.6
6 4 92.80 54.20 0.00 32.50 1535.1
6 5 94.70 55.30 0.00 34.00 1569.1
6 6 95.40 61.30 0.00 37.35 1606.4
6 7 100.60 53.60 0.00 36.10 1642.5
6 8 87.20 59.80 0.00 32.50 1675.0
6 9 77.30 57.40 0.00 26.35 1701.4
6 10 79.70 55.70 0.00 26.70 1728.1
6 11 90.00 52.90 0.00 30.45 1758.5
6 12 97.90 68.80 0.00 42.35 1800.9
6 13 96.20 61.50 0.00 37.85 1838.7
6 14 79.80 50.20 0.00 24.00 1862.7
6 15 85.20 52.70 0.00 27.95 1890.7
6 16 90.40 50.80 0.00 29.60 1920.3
6 17 84.60 59.70 0.00 31.15 1951.4
6 18 74.40 48.60 0.00 20.50 1971.9
6 19 73.70 40.40 0.00 16.08 1988.0
6 20 71.10 48.00 0.00 18.55 2006.6
6 21 81.40 41.40 0.00 20.40 2027.0
6 22 86.10 50.30 0.00 27.20 2054.2
6 23 92.20 51.20 0.00 30.70 2084.9 Peak in density large larvae
6 24 91.40 50.00 0.00 29.70 2114.6
6 25 93.00 58.60 0.00 34.80 2149.4
6 26 94.20 62.70 0.00 37.45 2186.8
6 27 91.10 65.20 0.00 37.15 2224.0
6 28 92.70 64.90 0.00 37.80 2261.8
6 29 98.90 62.90 0.00 39.90 2301.7
6 30 100.30 60.50 0.00 39.40 2341.1
7 1 96.50 59.10 0.00 36.80 2377.9
7 2 90.60 55.80 0.00 32.20 2410.1
7 3 92.10 57.10 0.00 33.60 2443.7
7 4 93.30 56.50 0.00 33.90 2477.6
7 5 97.00 54.90 0.00 34.95 2512.5
7 6 99.20 60.60 0.00 38.90 2551.4
7 7 100.90 62.30 0.00 40.60 2592.0
7 8 99.20 66.10 0.00 41.65 2633.7
7 9 102.20 69.70 0.00 44.95 2678.6
7 10 91.10 67.80 0.00 38.45 2717.1
7 11 90.60 57.60 0.00 33.10 2750.2
7 12 93.80 61.30 0.00 36.55 2786.7
7 13 94.30 62.70 0.00 37.50 2824.2
7 14 97.30 60.40 0.00 37.85 2862.1
7 15 102.50 61.10 0.00 40.80 2902.9
7 16 99.90 67.30 0.00 42.60 2945.5 Px Pn
7 17 88.40 70.80 0.00 38.60 2984.1
7 18 87.60 54.40 0.00 30.00 3014.1
7 19 98.80 54.50 0.00 35.65 3049.7
7 20 103.60 61.80 0.00 41.70 3091.4
7 21 101.30 66.40 0.00 42.85 3134.3
7 22 100.20 57.50 0.00 37.85 3172.1
7 23 99.00 61.40 0.00 39.20 3211.3
7 24 94.60 64.60 0.00 38.60 3249.9
7 25 88.60 63.20 0.00 34.90 3284.8
7 26 85.30 59.20 0.00 31.25 3316.1 Pn
7 27 91.60 55.40 0.00 32.50 3348.6
7 28 93.70 63.10 0.00 37.40 3386.0 Hx Hn
7 29 96.40 63.70 0.00 39.05 3425.0 Hx Hn
7 30 99.40 63.80 0.00 40.60 3465.6 Hx Hn
7 31 100.80 64.60 0.00 41.70 3507.3 Hx Hn
8 1 94.10 54.10 0.00 33.10 3540.4
8 2 98.60 59.90 0.00 38.25 3578.7
8 3 96.10 63.70 0.00 38.90 3617.6
8 4 84.40 63.20 0.00 32.80 3650.4
8 5 85.20 68.40 0.00 35.80 3686.2
8 6 87.30 66.50 0.00 35.90 3722.1
8 7 78.70 65.90 0.00 31.30 3753.4
8 8 91.90 57.50 0.00 33.70 3787.1
8 9 92.90 59.50 0.00 35.20 3822.3
8 10 90.60 53.60 0.00 31.10 3853.4
8 11 91.00 56.40 0.00 32.70 3886.1
8 12 94.80 54.80 0.00 33.80 3919.9
8 13 98.50 68.90 0.00 42.70 3962.6
8 14 104.60 61.60 0.00 42.10 4004.7
8 15 109.60 64.00 0.00 45.80 4050.5
8 16 106.40 67.80 0.00 46.10 4096.6
8 17 103.40 65.50 0.00 43.45 4140.0
8 18 97.50 69.70 0.00 42.60 4182.6
8 19 87.70 65.70 0.00 35.70 4218.3
8 20 85.90 61.70 0.00 32.80 4251.1
8 21 82.00 61.00 0.00 30.50 4281.6
8 22 77.30 62.00 0.00 28.65 4310.3
8 23 82.00 53.10 0.00 26.55 4336.8
8 24 87.40 48.90 0.00 27.15 4364.0
8 25 84.60 65.60 0.00 34.10 4398.1
8 26 92.00 57.10 0.00 33.55 4431.6
8 27 100.50 56.40 0.00 37.45 4469.1
8 28 105.00 61.40 0.00 42.20 4511.3
8 29 85.10 67.90 0.00 35.50 4546.8
8 30 85.10 63.30 0.00 33.20 4580.0
8 31 70.10 57.40 0.00 22.75 4602.7
9 1 80.90 57.30 0.00 28.10 4630.8
9 2 88.90 54.60 0.00 30.75 4661.6
9 3 87.50 67.40 0.00 36.45 4698.0
9 4 79.60 58.00 0.00 27.80 4725.8
9 5 80.70 50.60 0.00 24.65 4750.5
9 6 86.50 45.80 0.00 25.15 4775.6
9 7 83.90 50.40 0.00 26.15 4801.8
9 8 84.20 51.80 0.00 27.00 4828.8
9 9 91.30 48.00 0.00 28.65 4857.4
9 10 92.30 55.20 0.00 32.75 4890.2
9 11 85.40 54.40 0.00 28.90 4919.1 Vx Vn
9 12 86.70 54.80 0.00 29.75 4948.8 Vn
9 13 83.60 53.50 0.00 27.55 4976.4
9 14 87.00 47.80 0.00 26.40 5002.8
9 15 89.90 46.00 0.00 26.95 5029.7
Forecast using: 1910 HPROS PRISM_rev1_4km 2013-2022 AVERAGES Lat46.3919 Long-119.4119 DD50
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2023 HPROS Prosser Barricade Hanf 1910 HPROS PRISM_rev1_4km 2013-2022 AVERAGES Date | DDs | Event |
5-12-23 | 856 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
5-15-23 | 956 | Peak female adult emergence |
5-17-23 | 1017 | Peak egg laying |
5-26-23 | 1285 | Peak egg hatch |
6-23-23 | 2085 | Peak in density large larvae |