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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 7 0
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2017 KMWT METAR Mount Ida AR Lat34.5500 Long:-93.5831 Elev:702
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 48.00 43.00 0.03 4.50 4.5 * START *
1 2 61.00 46.90 0.46 12.95 17.5
1 3 60.10 35.10 0.00 7.85 25.3
1 4 42.10 28.00 0.00 0.13 25.4
1 5 37.00 26.10 0.02 0.00 25.4
1 6 27.00 14.00 0.04 0.00 25.4
1 7 39.00 9.00 0.00 0.00 25.4
1 8 39.00 12.00 0.00 0.00 25.4
1 9 55.00 21.90 0.00 4.06 29.5
1 10 71.10 46.00 0.00 17.55 47.0
1 11 73.00 57.90 0.00 24.45 71.5
1 12 73.90 53.10 0.01 22.50 94.0
1 13 58.00 45.00 0.01 10.50 104.5
1 14 53.10 44.60 0.02 7.85 112.3
1 15 52.00 48.00 0.25 9.00 121.3
1 16 68.00 46.90 0.42 16.45 137.8
1 17 55.90 43.00 0.06 8.45 146.2
1 18 48.00 45.00 0.19 5.50 151.7
1 19 56.00 46.90 0.09 10.45 162.2
1 20 69.10 55.00 0.00 21.05 183.2
1 21 70.00 44.10 0.71 16.05 199.3
1 22 57.00 48.00 0.05 11.50 210.8
1 23 62.10 34.00 0.00 8.57 219.4
1 24 71.10 30.90 0.00 12.21 231.6
1 25 64.90 32.00 0.00 9.51 241.1
1 26 48.00 32.00 0.00 2.07 243.1
1 27 51.10 23.00 0.00 2.68 245.8
1 28 54.00 26.10 0.00 3.98 249.8
1 29 59.00 33.10 0.00 6.96 256.8
1 30 72.00 28.90 0.00 12.25 269.0
1 31 75.90 34.00 0.00 15.19 284.2
2 1 72.00 54.00 0.02 22.00 306.2
2 2 55.00 39.90 0.02 6.58 312.8
2 3 50.00 30.00 0.00 2.70 315.5
2 4 43.00 28.00 0.00 0.31 315.8
2 5 54.00 39.00 0.02 5.81 321.6
2 6 70.00 50.00 0.85 19.00 340.6
2 7 79.00 48.90 2.03 22.95 363.5
2 8 75.90 37.00 0.00 16.00 379.5
2 9 53.10 28.90 0.00 3.85 383.4
2 10 69.10 35.10 0.00 12.16 395.6
2 11 80.10 66.00 0.00 32.05 427.6
2 12 75.90 51.10 0.00 22.50 450.1
2 13 55.90 46.90 0.00 10.40 460.5
2 14 44.10 39.90 2.26 1.25 461.8
2 15 57.90 35.10 0.02 6.81 468.6
2 16 64.90 28.00 0.00 8.86 477.4
2 17 70.00 32.00 0.00 11.91 489.3
2 18 64.90 42.10 0.23 12.50 501.8
2 19 71.10 46.90 0.00 18.00 519.8
2 20 73.00 57.90 0.39 24.45 544.3
2 21 62.10 57.00 0.46 18.55 562.8
2 22 73.00 52.00 0.00 21.50 584.3
2 23 79.00 46.90 0.00 21.95 606.3
2 24 68.00 39.00 0.00 12.72 619.0
2 25 53.10 30.00 0.00 3.96 623.0
2 26 59.00 26.10 0.05 6.03 629.0
2 27 63.00 45.00 0.01 13.00 642.0
2 28 79.00 60.10 0.15 28.55 670.5
3 1 72.00 36.00 0.11 13.80 684.3
3 2 64.00 28.00 0.00 8.45 692.8
3 3 66.90 30.00 0.00 10.08 702.9
3 4 68.00 35.10 0.14 11.63 714.5
3 5 61.00 48.90 0.21 13.95 728.5
3 6 71.10 55.90 0.86 22.50 751.0
3 7 71.10 35.10 1.38 13.13 764.1
3 8 71.10 30.00 0.00 12.04 776.1
3 9 69.10 45.00 0.00 16.05 792.2
3 10 69.10 48.00 0.00 17.55 809.7
3 11 50.00 35.10 0.11 3.20 812.9
3 12 55.00 30.90 0.25 4.86 817.8
3 13 55.90 34.00 0.29 5.69 823.5
3 14 52.00 30.00 0.00 3.50 827.0
3 15 53.10 32.00 0.00 4.17 831.1
3 16 59.00 42.10 0.00 9.55 840.7
3 17 70.00 57.90 0.01 22.95 863.6 Peak pheromone trap catch
3 18 80.10 57.00 0.00 27.55 891.2
3 19 82.90 51.10 0.00 26.00 917.2
3 20 86.00 64.90 0.00 34.45 951.6 Peak female adult emergence
3 21 86.00 55.90 0.00 29.95 981.6
3 22 66.90 52.00 0.00 18.45 1000.0 Peak egg laying
3 23 82.00 46.00 0.00 23.00 1023.0
3 24 75.90 59.00 1.73 26.45 1049.5
3 25 70.00 46.90 0.00 17.45 1066.9
3 26 78.10 43.00 0.50 19.55 1086.5
3 27 80.10 51.10 0.08 24.60 1111.1
3 28 75.90 48.00 0.00 20.95 1132.0
3 29 78.10 60.10 0.77 28.10 1160.1
3 30 61.00 48.00 0.00 13.50 1173.6
3 31 75.90 39.90 0.00 16.98 1190.6
4 1 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 1213.1
4 2 66.90 55.00 0.89 19.95 1233.1
4 3 75.90 52.00 0.02 22.95 1256.0
4 4 72.90 46.00 0.00 18.45 1274.5 Hx Hn Peak egg hatch
4 5 60.10 51.10 0.02 14.60 1289.1
4 6 69.10 42.10 0.00 14.60 1303.7
4 7 75.00 36.00 0.00 15.27 1318.9
4 8 79.00 46.90 0.00 21.95 1340.9
4 9 79.00 63.00 0.00 30.00 1370.9
4 10 70.00 64.00 0.41 26.00 1396.9
4 11 73.00 57.90 0.04 24.45 1421.3
4 12 77.00 54.00 0.00 24.50 1445.8
4 13 82.00 55.90 0.00 27.95 1473.8
4 14 81.00 55.90 0.00 27.45 1501.2
4 15 81.00 64.00 0.00 31.50 1532.7
4 16 80.10 61.00 0.22 29.55 1562.3
4 17 68.00 57.00 1.03 21.50 1583.8
4 18 82.00 57.00 0.00 28.50 1612.3
4 19 82.00 60.10 0.00 30.05 1642.3
4 20 81.00 63.00 0.00 31.00 1673.3
4 21 73.00 62.10 1.64 26.55 1699.9
4 22 64.00 51.10 0.00 16.55 1716.4
4 23 73.90 45.00 0.00 18.45 1734.9
4 24 78.10 39.90 0.00 18.08 1753.0
4 25 82.00 62.10 0.01 31.05 1784.0
4 26 73.90 46.00 2.14 18.95 1803.0
4 27 71.10 41.00 0.00 15.05 1818.0
4 28 80.10 55.90 0.11 27.00 1845.0
4 29 80.10 73.90 0.50 36.00 1881.0
4 30 65.10 53.10 0.00 18.10 1899.1 Vx Vn
5 1 80.10 46.00 0.00 22.05 1921.2
5 2 82.00 42.10 0.00 21.05 1942.2
5 3 69.10 51.10 6.64 19.10 1961.3
5 4 68.00 48.90 0.00 17.45 1978.8
5 5 75.00 46.90 0.00 19.95 1998.7
5 6 82.00 44.10 0.00 22.05 2020.8
5 7 84.00 50.00 0.00 26.00 2046.8
5 8 82.00 52.00 0.00 26.00 2072.8 Peak in density large larvae
5 9 82.90 54.00 0.00 27.45 2100.2
5 10 81.00 61.00 0.00 30.00 2130.2
5 11 78.10 64.90 3.87 30.50 2160.7
5 12 77.00 57.90 0.18 26.45 2187.2
5 13 77.00 53.10 0.00 24.05 2211.2
5 14 81.00 48.00 0.00 23.50 2234.7
5 15 82.90 53.10 0.00 27.00 2261.7
5 16 82.90 68.00 0.00 34.45 2296.2
5 17 82.00 69.10 0.01 34.55 2330.7
5 18 86.00 73.00 0.00 38.50 2369.2
5 19 86.00 66.00 0.61 35.00 2404.2
5 20 79.00 62.10 0.28 29.55 2433.8
5 21 79.00 55.00 0.00 26.00 2459.8
5 22 78.10 55.90 0.00 26.00 2485.8
5 23 78.10 57.00 0.01 26.55 2512.3
5 24 69.10 48.90 0.00 18.00 2530.3
5 25 82.00 45.00 0.00 22.50 2552.8
5 26 84.90 70.00 0.00 36.45 2589.3
5 27 88.00 77.00 0.00 41.50 2630.8
5 28 81.00 64.00 1.20 31.50 2662.3
5 29 86.00 59.00 0.00 31.50 2693.8
5 30 88.00 57.00 0.00 31.50 2725.3
5 31 88.00 60.10 0.00 33.05 2758.3
6 1 81.00 63.00 0.61 31.00 2789.3
6 2 82.90 63.00 0.00 31.95 2821.3
6 3 86.00 68.00 0.00 36.00 2857.3
6 4 81.00 70.00 0.61 34.50 2891.8
6 5 80.10 66.00 0.64 32.05 2923.8
6 6 90.00 64.00 0.00 36.00 2959.8
6 7 82.00 57.90 0.00 28.95 2988.8
6 8 82.90 54.00 0.00 27.45 3016.2
6 9 82.90 55.00 0.00 27.95 3044.2
6 10 84.00 57.00 0.00 29.50 3073.7
6 11 87.10 72.00 0.00 38.55 3112.2
6 12 89.10 73.90 0.01 40.50 3152.7
6 13 88.00 73.00 0.01 39.50 3192.2
6 14 89.10 75.90 0.01 41.50 3233.7
6 15 88.00 73.00 0.01 39.50 3273.2
6 16 93.00 69.10 0.00 40.05 3313.3
6 17 84.90 72.00 0.00 37.45 3350.7
6 18 82.00 66.90 0.42 33.45 3384.2
6 19 87.10 64.90 0.50 35.00 3419.2
6 20 91.00 63.00 0.00 36.00 3455.2
6 21 87.10 62.10 0.01 33.60 3488.8
6 22 86.00 73.40 0.02 38.70 3527.5
6 23 93.90 69.80 1.25 40.85 3568.3
6 24 82.00 66.90 0.00 33.45 3601.8
6 25 86.00 62.10 0.00 33.05 3634.8
6 26 82.00 63.00 0.00 31.50 3666.3
6 27 87.10 61.00 0.00 33.05 3699.4
6 28 88.00 64.00 0.00 35.00 3734.4
6 29 87.10 73.00 0.01 39.05 3773.4
6 30 89.10 69.10 0.34 38.10 3811.5
Forecast using: 1910 KMWT PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES Lat34.5500 Long-93.5831 DD50
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2017 KMWT Mount Ida AR 1910 KMWT PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES | Date | DDs | Event |
| 3-17-17 | 864 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 3-20-17 | 952 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 3-22-17 | 1000 | Peak egg laying |
| 4-4-17 | 1274 | Peak egg hatch |
| 5-8-17 | 2073 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?232684)
