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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
No ending date, set to: default date 12 31
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2018 KBVS METAR BurlingtonMount Vernon WA Lat48.4706 Long:-122.4206 Elev:144
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 35.60 28.40 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 37.40 28.40 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 3 42.80 26.60 0.00 0.26 0.3
1 4 46.40 32.00 0.00 1.46 1.7
1 5 55.40 42.80 0.24 8.10 9.8
1 6 48.20 42.80 0.07 4.50 14.3
1 7 44.60 41.00 0.17 1.80 16.1
1 8 50.00 42.80 0.33 5.40 21.5
1 9 48.20 42.80 0.25 4.50 26.0
1 10 44.60 39.20 0.00 1.36 27.4
1 11 41.00 37.40 0.91 0.00 27.4
1 12 50.00 37.40 0.28 3.54 30.9
1 13 50.00 41.00 0.14 4.50 35.4
1 14 51.80 37.40 0.00 4.38 39.8
1 15 57.20 35.60 0.00 6.58 46.4
1 16 53.60 46.40 0.00 9.00 55.4
1 17 59.00 44.60 0.01 10.80 66.2
1 18 51.80 42.80 0.07 6.30 72.5
1 19 46.40 42.80 0.00 3.60 76.1
1 20 48.20 41.00 0.05 3.60 79.7
1 21 51.80 42.80 0.07 6.30 86.0
1 22 48.20 39.20 0.03 3.05 89.0
1 23 46.40 39.20 0.36 2.19 91.2
1 24 50.00 42.80 0.00 5.40 96.6
1 25 44.60 37.40 0.08 1.15 97.8
1 26 42.80 39.20 0.04 0.57 98.3
1 27 50.00 39.20 0.06 3.92 102.3
1 28 55.40 42.80 0.03 8.10 110.4
1 29 55.40 41.00 0.42 7.20 117.6
1 30 48.20 37.40 0.02 2.72 120.3
1 31 44.60 39.20 0.04 1.36 121.6
2 1 44.60 41.00 0.19 1.80 123.4
2 2 53.60 42.80 0.14 7.20 130.6
2 3 50.00 48.20 0.26 8.10 138.7
2 4 51.80 46.40 0.12 8.10 146.8
2 5 50.00 44.60 0.08 6.30 153.1
2 6 48.20 44.60 0.04 5.40 158.5
2 7 51.80 44.60 0.03 7.20 165.7
2 8 53.60 42.80 0.02 7.20 172.9
2 9 46.40 33.80 0.00 1.58 174.5
2 10 42.80 28.40 0.00 0.27 174.8
2 11 42.80 30.20 0.00 0.29 175.1
2 12 42.80 28.40 0.00 0.27 175.3
2 13 42.80 26.60 0.07 0.26 175.6
2 14 41.00 33.80 0.26 0.00 175.6
2 15 44.60 33.80 0.00 0.92 176.5
2 16 44.60 39.20 0.20 1.36 177.9
2 17 48.20 39.20 0.51 3.05 180.9
2 18 41.00 26.60 0.00 0.00 180.9
2 19 35.60 23.00 0.00 0.00 180.9
2 20 37.40 24.80 0.00 0.00 180.9
2 21 33.80 24.80 0.00 0.00 180.9
2 22 39.20 21.20 0.00 0.00 180.9
2 23 35.60 23.00 0.00 0.00 180.9
2 24 42.80 32.00 0.12 0.32 181.2
2 25 44.60 32.00 0.02 0.84 182.1
2 26 46.40 30.20 0.00 1.37 183.5
2 27 48.20 39.20 0.00 3.05 186.5
2 28 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 188.4
3 1 50.00 37.40 0.06 3.54 192.0
3 2 42.80 37.40 0.00 0.46 192.4
3 3 46.40 33.80 0.00 1.58 194.0
3 4 48.20 32.00 0.10 2.14 196.1
3 5 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 197.9
3 6 50.00 33.80 0.00 3.04 200.9
3 7 48.20 32.00 0.00 2.14 203.0
3 8 50.00 41.00 0.15 4.50 207.5
3 9 50.00 37.40 0.00 3.54 211.1
3 10 53.60 33.80 0.00 4.62 215.7
3 11 59.00 39.20 0.00 8.33 224.0
3 12 68.00 44.60 0.00 15.30 239.3
3 13 62.60 44.60 0.16 12.60 251.9
3 14 48.20 39.20 0.13 3.05 255.0
3 15 51.80 35.60 0.00 4.07 259.1
3 16 53.60 35.60 0.00 4.90 264.0
3 17 51.80 32.00 0.00 3.61 267.6
3 18 53.60 41.00 0.00 6.30 273.9
3 19 53.60 35.60 0.00 4.90 278.8
3 20 51.80 37.40 0.00 4.38 283.2
3 21 59.00 37.40 0.00 7.83 291.0
3 22 50.00 33.80 0.63 3.04 294.0
3 23 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 295.9
3 24 48.20 35.60 0.06 2.48 298.4
3 25 51.80 30.20 0.00 3.44 301.9
3 26 44.60 41.00 0.29 1.80 303.7
3 27 55.40 41.00 0.20 7.20 310.9
3 28 51.80 39.20 0.00 4.79 315.7
3 29 46.40 41.00 0.08 2.70 318.4
3 30 57.20 41.00 0.00 8.10 326.5
3 31 55.40 37.40 0.00 6.10 332.5
4 1 50.00 33.80 0.15 3.04 335.6
4 2 50.00 33.80 0.00 3.04 338.6
4 3 50.00 39.20 0.08 3.92 342.6
4 4 46.40 41.00 0.20 2.70 345.3
4 5 53.60 42.80 0.47 7.20 352.5
4 6 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 368.7
4 7 57.20 50.00 0.13 12.60 381.3
4 8 53.60 48.20 0.09 9.90 391.2
4 9 59.00 42.80 0.06 9.90 401.1
4 10 57.20 46.40 0.14 10.80 411.9
4 11 55.40 42.80 0.03 8.10 420.0
4 12 51.80 39.20 0.01 4.79 424.7
4 13 53.60 44.60 0.01 8.10 432.8
4 14 51.80 42.80 0.47 6.30 439.1
4 15 51.80 41.00 0.07 5.40 444.5
4 16 46.40 41.00 0.57 2.70 447.2
4 17 53.60 44.60 0.11 8.10 455.3
4 18 55.40 41.00 0.00 7.20 462.5
4 19 59.00 37.40 0.00 7.83 470.4
4 20 59.00 41.00 0.00 9.00 479.4
4 21 55.40 42.80 0.02 8.10 487.5
4 22 55.40 37.40 0.00 6.10 493.6
4 23 62.60 39.20 0.00 10.11 503.7
4 24 66.20 44.60 0.00 14.40 518.1
4 25 64.40 44.60 0.00 13.50 531.6
4 26 69.80 44.60 0.00 16.20 547.8
4 27 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 558.6
4 28 53.60 46.40 0.22 9.00 567.6
4 29 57.20 46.40 0.00 10.80 578.4
4 30 57.20 48.20 0.06 11.70 590.1
5 1 60.80 44.60 0.00 11.70 601.8
5 2 66.20 42.80 0.00 13.50 615.3
5 3 71.60 46.40 0.00 18.00 633.3
5 4 60.80 48.20 0.00 13.50 646.8
5 5 64.40 42.80 0.00 12.60 659.4
5 6 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 681.0
5 7 66.20 50.00 0.00 17.10 698.1
5 8 69.80 44.60 0.04 16.20 714.3
5 9 68.00 51.80 0.03 18.90 733.2
5 10 60.80 48.20 0.25 13.50 746.7
5 11 66.20 48.20 0.00 16.20 762.9
5 12 68.00 44.60 0.00 15.30 778.2
5 13 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 798.9
5 14 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 824.1
5 15 69.80 50.00 0.00 18.90 843.0
5 16 66.20 50.00 0.00 17.10 860.1 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 17 64.40 51.80 0.00 17.10 877.2
5 18 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 893.4
5 19 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 913.2
5 20 62.60 50.00 0.00 15.30 928.5
5 21 66.20 44.60 0.00 14.40 942.9
5 22 71.60 44.60 0.00 17.10 960.0 Peak female adult emergence
5 23 71.60 48.20 0.00 18.90 978.9
5 24 64.40 50.00 0.02 16.20 995.1
5 25 64.40 48.20 0.00 15.30 1010.4 Peak egg laying
5 26 64.40 46.40 0.00 14.40 1024.8
5 27 68.00 44.60 0.00 15.30 1040.1
5 28 66.20 48.20 0.00 16.20 1056.3
5 29 62.60 44.60 0.00 12.60 1068.9
5 30 62.60 44.60 0.00 12.60 1081.5
5 31 62.60 44.60 0.00 12.60 1094.1
6 1 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 1110.3
6 2 69.80 50.00 0.00 18.90 1129.2
6 3 53.60 50.00 0.31 10.80 1140.0
6 4 62.60 44.60 0.00 12.60 1152.6
6 5 66.20 46.40 0.00 15.30 1167.9
6 6 68.00 44.60 0.00 15.30 1183.2
6 7 64.40 51.80 0.00 17.10 1200.3
6 8 62.60 51.80 0.16 16.20 1216.5
6 9 60.80 50.00 0.03 14.40 1230.9
6 10 59.00 46.40 0.08 11.70 1242.6
6 11 64.40 44.60 0.00 13.50 1256.1
6 12 64.40 44.60 0.00 13.50 1269.6
6 13 64.40 51.80 0.07 17.10 1286.7 Peak egg hatch
6 14 66.20 44.60 0.00 14.40 1301.1
6 15 68.00 44.60 0.00 15.30 1316.4
6 16 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 1338.9
6 17 77.00 55.40 0.00 25.20 1364.1
6 18 84.20 55.40 0.00 28.80 1392.9
6 19 77.00 55.40 0.00 25.20 1418.1
6 20 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 1444.2
6 21 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 1464.9
6 22 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 1483.8
6 23 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 1504.5
6 24 71.60 48.20 0.04 18.90 1523.4
6 25 64.40 53.60 0.24 18.00 1541.4
6 26 70.70 50.00 0.00 19.35 1560.7 Px
6 27 69.30 45.10 0.00 16.20 1576.9 Px Pn
6 28 63.90 51.30 0.00 16.60 1593.5 Px Pn
6 29 64.40 54.80 0.01 18.60 1612.1 Pn
6 30 59.00 53.60 0.18 15.30 1627.4
7 1 66.20 53.60 0.00 18.90 1646.3
7 2 66.20 51.80 0.00 18.00 1664.3
7 3 71.60 46.40 0.00 18.00 1682.3
7 4 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 1703.0
7 5 80.60 57.20 0.00 27.90 1730.9
7 6 78.80 55.40 0.00 26.10 1757.0
7 7 73.40 55.40 0.00 23.40 1780.4
7 8 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 1801.1
7 9 68.00 55.40 0.00 20.70 1821.8
7 10 71.60 53.60 0.02 21.60 1843.4
7 11 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 1865.9
7 12 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 1890.2
7 13 77.00 55.40 0.00 25.20 1915.4
7 14 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 1939.7
7 15 82.40 53.60 0.00 27.00 1966.7
7 16 82.40 53.60 0.00 27.00 1993.7
7 17 84.20 55.40 0.00 28.80 2022.5
7 18 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 2045.0
7 19 69.80 55.40 0.00 21.60 2066.6
7 20 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 2087.3 Peak in density large larvae
7 21 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 2107.1
7 22 78.80 50.00 0.00 23.40 2130.5
7 23 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 2158.4
7 24 82.40 50.00 0.00 25.20 2183.6
7 25 86.00 50.00 0.00 27.00 2210.6
7 26 86.00 51.80 0.00 27.90 2238.5
7 27 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 2264.6
7 28 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 2290.7
7 29 86.00 51.80 0.00 27.90 2318.6
7 30 84.20 59.00 0.00 30.60 2349.2
7 31 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 2371.7
8 1 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 2394.2
8 2 68.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 2413.1
8 3 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 2435.6
8 4 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 2459.0
8 5 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 2485.1
8 6 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 2511.2
8 7 84.20 51.80 0.00 27.00 2538.2
8 8 86.50 53.60 0.00 29.05 2567.3 Px
8 9 85.20 56.00 0.00 29.60 2596.9 Px Pn
8 10 84.10 51.70 0.00 26.90 2623.8 Px Pn
8 11 71.50 57.30 0.00 23.40 2647.2 Px Pn
8 12 71.20 53.80 0.00 21.50 2668.7 Px Pn
8 13 70.50 49.30 0.00 18.90 2687.6 Px Pn
8 14 78.80 51.10 0.00 23.95 2711.5 Pn
8 15 82.40 51.80 0.00 26.10 2737.6
8 16 73.40 51.80 0.00 21.60 2759.2
8 17 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 2779.9
8 18 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 2800.6
8 19 71.60 53.60 0.00 21.60 2822.2
8 20 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 2844.7
8 21 84.20 55.40 0.00 28.80 2873.5
8 22 84.20 53.60 0.00 27.90 2901.4
8 23 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 2921.2
8 24 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 2941.9
8 25 59.00 50.00 0.00 13.50 2955.4
8 26 66.20 53.60 0.01 18.90 2974.3
8 27 74.50 51.80 0.00 22.15 2996.5 Px
8 28 77.60 47.60 0.00 21.60 3018.1 Px Pn
8 29 68.90 49.50 0.00 18.20 3036.3 Px Pn
8 30 73.40 52.00 0.00 21.70 3058.0 Pn
8 31 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 3077.8
9 1 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 3097.6
9 2 71.60 46.40 0.00 18.00 3115.6
9 3 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 3135.4
9 4 69.80 44.60 0.00 16.20 3151.6
9 5 75.20 46.40 0.00 19.80 3171.4
9 6 80.60 50.00 0.00 24.30 3195.7
9 7 68.00 50.00 0.07 18.00 3213.7
9 8 66.20 53.60 0.07 18.90 3232.6
9 9 68.00 53.60 0.22 19.80 3252.4
9 10 69.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 3273.1
9 11 68.00 50.00 0.05 18.00 3291.1
9 12 66.20 55.40 0.44 19.80 3310.9
9 13 68.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 3330.7
9 14 62.60 53.60 0.01 17.10 3347.8
9 15 64.40 51.80 0.00 17.10 3364.9
9 16 62.60 50.00 0.17 15.30 3380.2
9 17 64.40 44.60 0.00 13.50 3393.7
9 18 62.60 41.00 0.00 10.80 3404.5
9 19 68.00 44.60 0.00 15.30 3419.8
9 20 62.60 51.80 0.00 16.20 3436.0
9 21 66.20 60.80 0.04 22.50 3458.5
9 22 64.40 53.60 0.01 18.00 3476.5
9 23 64.40 48.20 0.00 15.30 3491.8
9 24 64.40 44.60 0.00 13.50 3505.3
9 25 62.60 44.60 0.00 12.60 3517.9
9 26 64.40 48.20 0.00 15.30 3533.2
9 27 62.60 46.40 0.00 13.50 3546.7
9 28 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 3565.6
9 29 69.80 50.00 0.00 18.90 3584.5
9 30 62.60 53.60 0.04 17.10 3601.6
10 1 62.60 57.20 0.00 18.90 3620.5
10 2 57.20 42.80 0.01 9.00 3629.5
10 3 53.60 37.40 0.00 5.24 3634.7
10 4 57.20 37.40 0.00 6.96 3641.7
10 5 55.40 41.00 0.02 7.20 3648.9
10 6 59.00 39.20 0.00 8.33 3657.2
10 7 55.40 46.40 0.04 9.90 3667.1
10 8 55.40 50.00 0.03 11.70 3678.8
10 9 60.80 48.20 0.03 13.50 3692.3
10 10 60.80 42.80 0.00 10.80 3703.1
10 11 62.60 41.00 0.00 10.80 3713.9
10 12 59.00 42.80 0.00 9.90 3723.8
10 13 60.80 33.80 0.00 7.92 3731.8
10 14 62.60 37.40 0.00 9.59 3741.3
10 15 60.80 35.60 0.00 8.29 3749.6
10 16 64.40 42.80 0.00 12.60 3762.2
10 17 68.00 41.00 0.00 13.50 3775.7
10 18 66.20 41.00 0.00 12.60 3788.3
10 19 60.80 41.00 0.00 9.90 3798.2
10 20 59.00 39.20 0.00 8.33 3806.6
10 21 62.60 39.20 0.00 10.11 3816.7
10 22 62.60 39.20 0.00 10.11 3826.8
10 23 57.20 39.20 0.00 7.44 3834.2
10 24 62.60 44.60 0.00 12.60 3846.8
10 25 60.80 55.40 0.00 17.10 3863.9
10 26 59.00 42.80 0.01 9.90 3873.8
10 27 59.00 39.20 0.00 8.33 3882.2
10 28 59.00 48.20 0.77 12.60 3894.8
10 29 57.20 42.80 0.00 9.00 3903.8
10 30 59.00 44.60 0.12 10.80 3914.6
10 31 55.40 48.20 0.10 10.80 3925.4
11 1 60.80 53.60 1.04 16.20 3941.6
11 2 62.60 50.00 0.44 15.30 3956.9
11 3 55.40 50.00 0.22 11.70 3968.6
11 4 60.80 48.20 0.23 13.50 3982.1
11 5 55.40 48.20 0.06 10.80 3992.9
11 6 55.40 42.80 0.00 8.10 4001.0
11 7 53.60 39.20 0.00 5.67 4006.6
11 8 51.80 33.80 0.00 3.82 4010.5
11 9 42.80 32.00 0.28 0.32 4010.8
11 10 51.80 35.60 0.01 4.07 4014.8
11 11 50.00 32.00 0.00 2.86 4017.7
11 12 53.60 35.60 0.00 4.90 4022.6
11 13 55.40 35.60 0.08 5.73 4028.3
11 14 55.40 46.40 0.09 9.90 4038.2
11 15 53.60 46.40 0.06 9.00 4047.2
11 16 59.00 39.20 0.04 8.33 4055.6
11 17 51.80 33.80 0.00 3.82 4059.4
11 18 51.80 32.00 0.00 3.61 4063.0
11 19 53.60 32.00 0.00 4.39 4067.4
11 20 55.40 32.00 0.00 5.17 4072.6
11 21 55.40 41.00 0.09 7.20 4079.8
11 22 55.40 46.40 0.35 9.90 4089.7
11 23 48.20 42.80 0.03 4.50 4094.2
11 24 50.00 41.00 0.00 4.50 4098.7
11 25 51.80 39.20 0.00 4.79 4103.5
11 26 59.00 46.40 0.02 11.70 4115.2
11 27 60.80 50.00 0.01 14.40 4129.6
11 28 53.60 46.40 0.05 9.00 4138.6
11 29 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 4144.9
11 30 50.00 44.60 0.01 6.30 4151.2
12 1 48.20 35.60 0.00 2.48 4153.6
12 2 48.20 33.80 0.00 2.29 4155.9
12 3 46.40 28.40 0.00 1.30 4157.2
12 4 44.60 24.80 0.00 0.66 4157.9
12 5 44.60 23.00 0.00 0.63 4158.5
12 6 42.80 23.00 0.00 0.23 4158.8
12 7 44.60 24.80 0.00 0.66 4159.4
12 8 46.40 33.80 0.00 1.58 4161.0
12 9 51.80 35.60 0.04 4.07 4165.1
12 10 48.20 39.20 0.01 3.05 4168.1
12 11 48.20 44.60 0.11 5.40 4173.5
12 12 48.20 35.60 0.00 2.48 4176.0
12 13 55.40 44.60 0.08 9.00 4185.0
12 14 59.00 42.80 0.06 9.90 4194.9
12 15 50.00 41.00 0.00 4.50 4199.4
12 16 53.60 46.40 0.00 9.00 4208.4
12 17 53.60 48.20 0.00 9.90 4218.3
12 18 51.80 42.80 0.22 6.30 4224.6
12 19 50.00 44.60 0.00 6.30 4230.9
12 20 57.20 42.80 0.00 9.00 4239.9
12 21 44.60 30.20 0.00 0.78 4240.7
12 22 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 4242.6
12 23 46.40 39.20 0.07 2.19 4244.8
12 24 51.80 33.80 0.00 3.82 4248.6
12 25 42.80 32.00 0.00 0.32 4248.9
12 26 44.60 37.40 0.01 1.15 4250.1
12 27 42.80 37.40 0.00 0.46 4250.5
12 28 44.60 37.40 0.47 1.15 4251.7
12 29 51.80 41.00 0.34 5.40 4257.1
12 30 46.40 32.00 0.00 1.46 4258.5
12 31 44.60 28.40 0.00 0.74 4259.3
Forecast using: 1910 KBVS PRISM_rev1_4km 2008-2017 AVERAGES Lat48.4706 Long-122.4206 DD50
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2018 KBVS BurlingtonMount Vernon WA 1910 KBVS PRISM_rev1_4km 2008-2017 AVERAGES | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-16-18 | 860 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-22-18 | 960 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-25-18 | 1010 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-13-18 | 1287 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-20-18 | 2087 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?584771)
