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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 12 0
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 E1672 APRSWXNET EW1672 Madison AL Lat34.7025 Long:-86.7119 Elev:656
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 40.00 33.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 50.00 26.00 0.00 2.44 2.4
1 3 52.00 26.00 0.00 3.19 5.6
1 4 37.00 24.00 0.00 0.00 5.6
1 5 46.00 20.00 0.00 0.95 6.6
1 6 49.00 31.00 0.00 2.38 9.0
1 7 55.00 31.00 0.01 4.87 13.8
1 8 59.00 49.00 0.01 13.00 26.8
1 9 55.00 41.00 0.41 7.00 33.8
1 10 37.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 33.8
1 11 42.00 14.00 0.00 0.08 33.9
1 12 52.00 24.00 0.00 3.06 37.0
1 13 49.00 25.00 0.00 2.03 39.0
1 14 61.00 27.00 0.20 7.00 46.0
1 15 51.00 42.00 0.01 5.50 51.5
1 16 46.00 30.00 0.00 1.23 52.7
1 17 44.00 30.00 0.00 0.60 53.3
1 18 32.00 16.00 0.00 0.00 53.3
1 19 32.00 16.00 0.26 0.00 53.3
1 20 38.00 34.00 0.01 0.00 53.3
1 21 44.00 38.00 1.92 0.95 54.3
1 22 47.00 27.00 0.01 1.44 55.7
1 23 32.00 18.00 0.08 0.00 55.7
1 24 46.00 16.00 0.08 0.88 56.6
1 25 60.00 28.00 0.55 6.68 63.3
1 26 55.00 36.00 0.03 5.62 68.9
1 27 45.00 29.00 0.00 0.87 69.8
1 28 53.00 23.00 0.00 3.37 73.2
1 29 55.00 29.00 0.00 4.65 77.8
1 30 68.00 31.00 0.00 10.77 88.6
1 31 68.00 46.00 0.02 16.00 104.6
2 1 68.00 51.00 0.07 18.50 123.1
2 2 76.00 50.00 1.84 22.00 145.1
2 3 61.00 33.00 0.14 7.87 152.9
2 4 46.00 29.00 0.00 1.19 154.1
2 5 49.00 26.00 0.00 2.08 156.2
2 6 49.00 26.00 0.00 2.08 158.3
2 7 57.00 24.00 0.00 5.00 163.3
2 8 46.00 33.00 0.00 1.37 164.7
2 9 33.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 164.7
2 10 34.00 16.00 0.00 0.00 164.7
2 11 53.00 21.00 0.00 3.25 167.9
2 12 57.00 31.00 0.00 5.75 173.7
2 13 37.00 24.00 0.00 0.00 173.7
2 14 50.00 22.00 0.89 2.24 175.9
2 15 49.00 40.00 1.28 3.64 179.6
2 16 51.00 37.00 0.12 3.94 183.5
2 17 48.00 28.00 0.01 1.83 185.3
2 18 62.00 27.00 0.01 7.43 192.8
2 19 71.00 48.00 0.00 18.50 211.3
2 20 64.00 53.00 0.06 17.50 228.8
2 21 61.00 58.00 0.32 18.50 247.3
2 22 61.00 50.00 0.37 14.50 261.8
2 23 63.00 50.00 1.75 15.50 277.3
2 24 61.00 38.00 0.07 8.97 286.2
2 25 46.00 35.00 0.00 1.51 287.7
2 26 51.00 28.00 0.00 2.94 290.7
2 27 61.00 25.00 0.00 6.76 297.4
2 28 69.00 31.00 0.00 11.24 308.7
2 29 71.00 44.00 0.21 16.50 325.2
3 1 67.00 36.00 0.12 11.37 336.5
3 2 51.00 32.00 0.27 3.28 339.8
3 3 43.00 35.00 0.27 0.44 340.3
3 4 51.00 32.00 0.01 3.28 343.5
3 5 64.00 30.00 0.01 8.75 352.3
3 6 67.00 35.00 0.00 11.12 363.4
3 7 73.00 44.00 0.00 17.50 380.9
3 8 75.00 47.00 0.00 20.00 400.9
3 9 80.00 58.00 0.00 28.00 428.9
3 10 77.00 64.00 0.53 29.50 458.4
3 11 75.00 61.00 0.00 27.00 485.4
3 12 74.00 59.00 0.89 25.50 510.9
3 13 73.00 54.00 0.81 22.50 533.4
3 14 74.00 51.00 0.74 21.50 554.9
3 15 87.00 48.00 0.00 26.50 581.4
3 16 76.00 45.00 0.00 19.50 600.9
3 17 72.00 46.00 0.00 18.00 618.9
3 18 76.00 43.00 0.00 18.50 637.4
3 19 63.00 41.00 0.00 11.00 648.4
3 20 50.00 32.00 0.00 2.86 651.3
3 21 56.00 31.00 0.00 5.31 656.6
3 22 69.00 30.00 0.00 11.06 667.6
3 23 73.00 52.00 0.15 21.50 689.1
3 24 64.00 55.00 0.07 18.50 707.6
3 25 59.00 42.00 0.00 9.50 717.1
3 26 77.00 38.00 0.00 16.86 734.0
3 27 67.00 60.00 0.00 22.50 756.5
3 28 66.00 44.00 0.00 14.00 770.5
3 29 70.00 41.00 0.00 14.50 785.0
3 30 77.00 41.00 1.21 18.00 803.0
3 31 72.00 57.00 0.40 23.50 826.5
4 1 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 844.5
4 2 63.00 45.00 0.00 13.00 857.5 Peak pheromone trap catch
4 3 69.00 41.00 0.00 14.00 871.5
4 4 79.00 38.00 0.00 17.85 889.3
4 5 67.00 40.00 0.00 12.58 901.9
4 6 72.00 40.00 0.36 15.07 917.0
4 7 70.00 40.00 0.00 14.08 931.1
4 8 62.00 37.00 0.00 9.19 940.3
4 9 60.00 36.00 0.00 7.99 948.3
4 10 73.00 37.00 0.11 14.57 962.8 Peak female adult emergence
4 11 68.00 51.00 0.79 18.50 981.3
4 12 69.00 48.00 0.01 17.50 998.8
4 13 70.00 44.00 0.22 16.00 1014.8 Peak egg laying
4 14 70.00 57.00 0.02 22.50 1037.3
4 15 72.00 57.00 0.00 23.50 1060.8
4 16 77.00 52.00 0.00 23.50 1084.3
4 17 79.00 49.00 0.00 23.00 1107.3
4 18 82.00 45.00 0.00 22.50 1129.8
4 19 80.00 47.00 0.00 22.50 1152.3
4 20 85.00 57.00 0.00 30.00 1182.3
4 21 72.00 57.00 0.15 23.50 1205.8
4 22 80.00 56.00 0.04 27.00 1232.8
4 23 81.00 54.00 0.00 26.50 1259.3 Vx
4 24 81.00 55.00 0.00 27.00 1286.3 Vx Vn Peak egg hatch
4 25 82.00 57.00 0.00 28.50 1314.8
4 26 86.00 56.00 0.00 30.00 1344.8
4 27 83.00 60.00 0.00 30.50 1375.3
4 28 86.00 58.00 0.00 31.00 1406.3
4 29 82.00 54.00 0.45 27.00 1433.3
4 30 80.00 61.00 0.12 29.50 1462.8
5 1 78.00 60.00 0.06 28.00 1490.8
5 2 74.00 59.00 0.12 25.50 1516.3
5 3 72.00 51.00 0.00 20.50 1536.8
5 4 73.00 46.00 0.14 18.50 1555.3
5 5 68.00 44.00 0.00 15.00 1570.3
5 6 74.00 42.00 0.00 17.00 1587.3
5 7 83.00 44.00 0.00 22.50 1609.8
5 8 87.00 51.00 0.00 28.00 1637.8
5 9 74.00 61.00 0.00 26.50 1664.3
5 10 84.00 64.00 0.00 33.00 1697.3
5 11 87.00 63.00 0.44 34.00 1731.3
5 12 82.00 63.00 1.22 31.50 1762.8
5 13 79.00 51.00 0.00 24.00 1786.8
5 14 74.00 48.00 0.00 20.00 1806.8
5 15 71.00 45.00 0.00 17.00 1823.8
5 16 74.00 51.00 0.01 21.50 1845.3
5 17 84.00 62.00 0.01 32.00 1877.3
5 18 77.00 58.00 0.00 26.50 1903.8
5 19 80.00 57.00 0.00 27.50 1931.3
5 20 74.00 60.00 0.02 26.00 1957.3
5 21 78.00 56.00 0.00 26.00 1983.3
5 22 82.00 53.00 0.00 26.50 2009.8
5 23 86.00 50.00 0.00 27.00 2036.8
5 24 88.00 54.00 0.00 30.00 2066.8
5 25 88.00 61.00 0.00 33.50 2100.3 Peak in density large larvae
5 26 91.00 61.00 0.00 35.00 2135.3
5 27 88.00 63.00 0.00 34.50 2169.8
5 28 81.00 64.00 0.00 31.50 2201.3
5 29 91.00 62.00 0.00 35.50 2236.8
5 30 93.00 63.00 0.00 37.00 2273.8
5 31 93.00 64.00 0.00 37.50 2311.3
6 1 92.00 65.00 1.11 37.50 2348.8
6 2 89.00 68.00 0.02 37.50 2386.3
6 3 92.00 67.00 0.16 38.50 2424.8
6 4 85.00 68.00 0.17 35.50 2460.3
6 5 83.00 68.00 0.37 34.50 2494.8
6 6 88.00 62.00 0.01 34.00 2528.8
6 7 90.00 60.00 0.00 34.00 2562.8
6 8 87.00 59.00 0.00 32.00 2594.8
6 9 90.00 55.00 0.00 31.50 2626.3
6 10 95.00 56.00 0.00 34.50 2660.8
6 11 95.00 61.00 0.00 37.00 2697.8
6 12 92.00 69.00 0.03 39.50 2737.3
6 13 97.00 69.00 0.01 42.00 2779.3
6 14 93.00 72.00 0.00 41.50 2820.8
6 15 92.00 69.00 0.55 39.50 2860.3
6 16 97.00 68.00 0.01 41.50 2901.8
6 17 95.00 70.00 0.00 41.50 2943.3
6 18 86.00 67.00 0.00 35.50 2978.8
6 19 90.00 63.00 0.00 35.50 3014.3
6 20 90.00 59.00 0.00 33.50 3047.8
6 21 92.00 65.00 0.00 37.50 3085.3
6 22 95.00 68.00 0.00 40.50 3125.8
6 23 95.00 70.00 0.00 41.50 3167.3
6 24 95.00 74.00 0.00 43.50 3210.8
6 25 99.00 71.00 0.02 44.00 3254.8
6 26 99.00 71.00 0.08 44.00 3298.8
6 27 96.00 70.00 0.01 42.00 3340.8
6 28 94.00 72.00 0.00 42.00 3382.8
6 29 92.00 67.00 0.00 38.50 3421.3
6 30 93.00 62.00 0.00 36.50 3457.8
7 1 94.00 59.00 0.00 35.50 3493.3
7 2 96.00 72.00 0.00 43.00 3536.3
7 3 96.00 68.00 0.02 41.00 3577.3
7 4 96.00 71.00 0.53 42.50 3619.8
7 5 81.00 72.00 0.19 35.50 3655.3
7 6 94.00 72.00 0.02 42.00 3697.3
7 7 94.00 74.00 0.00 43.00 3740.3
7 8 96.00 73.00 0.00 43.50 3783.8
7 9 95.00 72.00 0.30 42.50 3826.3
7 10 92.00 71.00 0.02 40.50 3866.8
7 11 90.00 68.00 0.01 38.00 3904.8
7 12 94.00 67.00 0.00 39.50 3944.3
7 13 95.00 66.00 0.00 39.50 3983.8
7 14 94.00 70.00 0.92 41.00 4024.8
7 15 90.00 70.00 0.00 39.00 4063.8
7 16 92.00 69.00 0.03 39.50 4103.3
7 17 94.00 68.00 0.01 40.00 4143.3
7 18 95.00 71.00 0.00 42.00 4185.3
7 19 96.00 72.00 0.28 43.00 4228.3
7 20 97.00 71.00 0.01 43.00 4271.3
7 21 99.00 73.00 0.01 45.00 4316.3
7 22 96.00 71.00 0.01 42.50 4358.8
7 23 96.00 72.00 0.00 43.00 4401.8
7 24 96.00 72.00 0.00 43.00 4444.8
7 25 98.00 72.00 0.00 44.00 4488.8
7 26 98.00 76.00 0.00 46.00 4534.8
7 27 93.00 74.00 0.28 42.50 4577.3 Vn
7 28 80.00 72.00 0.39 35.00 4612.3
7 29 89.00 70.00 0.00 38.50 4650.8
7 30 90.00 69.00 0.01 38.50 4689.3
7 31 92.00 70.00 0.00 40.00 4729.3
8 1 97.00 69.00 0.39 42.00 4771.3
8 2 83.00 72.00 0.39 36.50 4807.8
8 3 96.00 71.00 0.00 42.50 4850.3
8 4 95.00 71.00 0.00 42.00 4892.3
8 5 99.00 73.00 0.00 45.00 4937.3
8 6 96.00 72.00 0.00 43.00 4980.3
8 7 94.00 72.00 0.00 42.00 5022.3
8 8 95.00 73.00 0.15 43.00 5065.3
8 10 91.00 76.00 0.00 42.50 5107.8
8 11 90.00 76.00 0.00 42.00 5149.8
8 12 91.00 73.00 0.00 41.00 5190.8
8 13 90.00 70.00 0.02 39.00 5229.8
8 14 94.00 68.00 0.00 40.00 5269.8
8 15 93.00 69.00 0.00 40.00 5309.8
8 16 96.00 71.00 0.00 42.50 5352.3
8 17 95.00 72.00 0.00 42.50 5394.8
8 18 93.00 72.00 0.23 41.50 5436.3
8 19 88.00 72.00 1.11 39.00 5475.3
8 20 86.00 71.00 0.68 37.50 5512.8
8 21 85.00 70.00 0.14 36.50 5549.3
8 22 89.00 66.00 0.00 36.50 5585.8
8 23 91.00 64.00 0.00 36.50 5622.3
8 24 97.00 69.00 0.00 42.00 5664.3
8 25 99.00 72.00 0.00 44.50 5708.8
8 26 96.00 71.00 0.73 42.50 5751.3
8 27 95.00 69.00 0.00 41.00 5792.3
8 28 96.00 71.00 0.15 42.50 5834.8
8 29 94.00 71.00 0.00 41.50 5876.3
8 30 95.00 68.00 0.00 40.50 5916.8
8 31 97.00 69.00 0.00 42.00 5958.8
9 1 94.00 73.00 0.00 42.50 6001.3
9 2 88.00 68.00 0.00 37.00 6038.3
9 3 91.00 66.00 0.00 37.50 6075.8
9 4 93.00 68.00 0.00 39.50 6115.3
9 5 95.00 66.00 0.00 39.50 6154.8
9 6 96.00 65.00 0.00 39.50 6194.3
9 7 96.00 65.00 0.00 39.50 6233.8
9 8 96.00 66.00 0.00 40.00 6273.8
9 9 95.00 64.00 0.00 38.50 6312.3
9 10 95.00 66.00 0.43 39.50 6351.8
9 11 87.00 66.00 0.00 35.50 6387.3
9 12 94.00 62.00 0.00 37.00 6424.3
9 13 94.00 68.00 0.03 40.00 6464.3
9 14 95.00 67.00 0.01 40.00 6504.3
9 15 96.00 69.00 0.00 41.50 6545.8
9 16 94.00 68.00 0.03 40.00 6585.8
9 17 79.00 73.00 0.11 35.00 6620.8
9 18 88.00 68.00 0.22 37.00 6657.8
9 19 91.00 68.00 0.14 38.50 6696.3
9 20 92.00 65.00 0.00 37.50 6733.8
9 21 94.00 63.00 0.00 37.50 6771.3
9 22 95.00 65.00 0.00 39.00 6810.3
9 23 95.00 64.00 0.00 38.50 6848.8 Vn
9 24 96.00 63.00 0.00 38.50 6887.3
9 25 98.00 65.00 0.00 40.50 6927.8
9 26 89.00 65.00 0.00 36.00 6963.8
9 27 87.00 54.00 0.00 29.50 6993.3
9 28 87.00 47.00 0.00 26.00 7019.3
9 29 72.00 52.00 0.00 21.00 7040.3
9 30 72.00 50.00 0.00 20.00 7060.3 Vn
10 1 78.00 49.00 0.00 22.50 7082.8
10 2 81.00 53.00 0.00 26.00 7108.8
10 3 85.00 55.00 0.00 29.00 7137.8
10 4 88.00 55.00 0.00 30.50 7168.3
10 5 89.00 60.00 0.00 33.50 7201.8
10 6 90.00 60.00 0.00 34.00 7235.8
10 7 90.00 56.00 0.00 32.00 7267.8
10 8 79.00 55.00 0.00 26.00 7293.8
10 9 79.00 51.00 0.00 24.00 7317.8
10 10 82.00 49.00 0.00 24.50 7342.3
10 11 81.00 47.00 0.00 23.00 7365.3
10 12 83.00 45.00 0.00 23.00 7388.3
10 13 85.00 49.00 0.00 26.00 7414.3
10 14 81.00 59.00 0.00 29.00 7443.3
10 15 81.00 58.00 0.00 28.50 7471.8 Vx
10 16 82.00 58.00 0.00 29.00 7500.8 Vn
10 17 85.00 58.00 0.00 30.50 7531.3
10 18 88.00 61.00 0.00 33.50 7564.8
10 19 85.00 62.00 0.30 32.50 7597.3 Vx
10 20 82.00 65.00 0.16 32.50 7629.8
10 21 67.00 52.00 0.00 18.50 7648.3 Vn
10 22 68.00 39.00 0.00 12.72 7661.1
10 23 77.00 37.00 0.00 16.54 7677.6
10 24 78.00 45.00 0.00 20.50 7698.1
10 25 83.00 45.00 0.00 23.00 7721.1
10 26 83.00 49.00 0.00 25.00 7746.1
10 27 83.00 55.00 0.00 28.00 7774.1
10 28 84.00 53.00 0.00 27.50 7801.6
10 29 86.00 52.00 0.00 28.00 7829.6 Vn
10 30 85.00 51.00 0.00 27.00 7856.6
10 31 87.00 54.00 0.00 29.50 7886.1
11 1 88.00 55.00 0.00 30.50 7916.6
11 2 82.00 58.00 0.00 29.00 7945.6
11 3 84.00 56.00 0.00 29.00 7974.6
11 4 77.00 55.00 0.00 25.00 7999.6
11 5 76.00 45.00 0.00 19.50 8019.1
11 6 74.00 45.00 0.00 18.50 8037.6
11 7 77.00 47.00 0.00 21.00 8058.6
11 8 70.00 53.00 0.00 20.50 8079.1
11 9 68.00 40.00 0.00 13.08 8092.2
11 10 70.00 34.00 0.00 12.34 8104.5
11 11 69.00 33.00 0.00 11.64 8116.2
11 12 67.00 39.00 0.00 12.23 8128.4
11 13 67.00 37.00 0.00 11.63 8140.0 Vx
11 14 68.00 36.00 0.00 11.85 8151.9
11 15 70.00 36.00 0.00 12.83 8164.7
11 16 75.00 39.00 0.00 16.20 8180.9
11 17 80.00 40.00 0.00 19.07 8200.0
11 18 78.00 44.00 0.19 20.00 8220.0
11 19 56.00 30.00 0.08 5.19 8225.1
11 20 54.00 27.00 0.00 4.05 8229.2
11 21 60.00 30.00 0.00 6.95 8236.1
11 22 64.00 27.00 0.00 8.31 8244.5
11 23 71.00 50.00 0.01 19.50 8264.0
11 24 62.00 -41.00 0.01 4.11 8268.1
11 25 68.00 2.00 0.00 7.68 8275.7 Vx Vn
11 26 71.00 24.00 0.00 11.02 8286.8 Vx Vn
11 27 73.00 35.00 0.00 14.03 8300.8 Vx Vn
11 28 74.00 40.00 0.69 16.07 8316.9 Vx Vn
11 29 75.00 46.00 3.72 19.50 8336.4
11 30 63.00 -41.00 1.42 4.39 8340.8
Forecast using: 1910 E1672 PRISM_rev1_4km 2006-2015 AVERAGES Lat34.7025 Long-86.7119 DD50
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2016 E1672 EW1672 Madison AL 1910 E1672 PRISM_rev1_4km 2006-2015 AVERAGES | Date | DDs | Event |
| 4-2-16 | 857 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 4-10-16 | 963 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 4-13-16 | 1015 | Peak egg laying |
| 4-24-16 | 1286 | Peak egg hatch |
| 5-25-16 | 2100 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?2160669)
