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insect model of OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 1.0 |
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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program: Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: omnivorous leaftier [multiple crops] Type: insect Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 1.0 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 36 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 100 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 7 0 Model validation status: new model would benefit from local validation Region of known use: developed for use in NW USA ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 436 DDs after Jan 1: Initial 1st instar larvae out of OW hibernacula (2-5%) 2. 617 DDs after Jan 1: Peak 1st instar larvae out of OW hibernacula (50-60%) 3. 775 DDs after Jan 1: Initial 3rd instars exit leaf mines begin leaf tying (2-5%) 4. 1210 DDs after Jan 1: Peak 3rd instars exit leaf mines begin leaf tying (50-60%) 5. 1559 DDs after Jan 1: Last 3rd instars exit leaf mines begin leaf tying (90-100%) 6. 1698 DDs after Jan 1: First larvae finish development to pupate 7. 2045 DDs after Jan 1: First moths emerge 8. 2265 DDs after Jan 1: First eggs next generation oviposited 9. 2542 DDs after Jan 1: Last larvae finish feeding 10. 2765 DDs after Jan 1: First eggs hatch next generation will seek hibernation sites 11. 3673 DDs after Jan 1: Last eggs hatch and seek hibernation sites ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2017 D9216 APRSWXNET DW9216 Cleator AZ Lat34.2825 Long:-112.1992 Elev:3212 mn day max min precip DD36 CUMDD36 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 48.00 43.00 0.00 9.50 9.5 * START * 1 2 48.00 37.00 0.00 6.50 16.0 1 3 54.00 35.00 0.00 8.60 24.6 1 4 58.00 35.00 0.00 10.59 35.2 1 5 57.00 38.00 0.00 11.50 46.7 1 6 54.00 41.00 0.00 11.50 58.2 1 7 58.00 39.00 0.00 12.50 70.7 1 8 68.00 42.00 0.00 19.00 89.7 1 9 62.00 43.00 0.00 16.50 106.2 1 10 60.00 40.00 0.00 14.00 120.2 1 11 59.00 40.00 0.00 13.50 133.7 1 12 54.00 41.00 0.00 11.50 145.2 1 13 56.00 45.00 0.00 14.50 159.7 1 14 60.00 45.00 0.00 16.50 176.2 1 15 55.00 41.00 0.00 12.00 188.2 1 16 55.00 43.00 0.00 13.00 201.2 1 17 58.00 41.00 0.00 13.50 214.7 1 18 59.00 36.00 0.00 11.50 226.2 1 19 46.00 37.00 0.00 5.50 231.7 1 20 45.00 41.00 0.00 7.00 238.7 1 21 52.00 36.00 0.00 8.00 246.7 1 22 49.00 34.00 0.00 5.81 252.5 1 23 50.00 40.00 0.00 9.00 261.5 1 24 44.00 32.00 0.00 3.02 264.5 1 25 49.00 28.00 0.00 4.69 269.2 1 26 50.00 30.00 0.00 5.44 274.6 1 27 47.00 31.00 0.00 4.23 278.9 1 28 63.00 32.00 0.00 12.12 291.0 1 29 65.00 33.00 0.00 13.39 304.4 1 30 72.00 45.00 0.00 22.50 326.9 1 31 67.00 37.00 0.00 16.00 342.9 2 1 67.00 38.00 0.00 16.50 359.4 2 2 66.00 36.00 0.00 15.00 374.4 2 3 66.00 45.00 0.00 19.50 393.9 2 4 66.00 36.00 0.00 15.00 408.9 2 5 68.00 38.00 0.00 17.00 425.9 2 6 60.00 44.00 0.00 16.00 441.9 Initial 1st instar larvae out of OW hibernacula (2-5%) 2 7 62.00 41.00 0.00 15.50 457.4 2 8 70.00 44.00 0.00 21.00 478.4 2 9 77.00 50.00 0.00 27.50 505.9 2 10 76.00 44.00 0.00 24.00 529.9 2 11 70.00 51.00 0.00 24.50 554.4 2 12 70.00 53.00 0.00 25.50 579.9 2 13 67.00 49.00 0.00 22.00 601.9 2 14 67.00 45.00 0.00 20.00 621.9 Peak 1st instar larvae out of OW hibernacula (50-60%) 2 15 69.00 42.00 0.00 19.50 641.4 2 16 67.00 41.00 0.00 18.00 659.4 2 17 63.00 48.00 0.00 19.50 678.9 2 18 58.00 43.00 0.00 14.50 693.4 2 19 51.00 42.00 0.00 10.50 703.9 2 20 62.00 46.00 0.00 18.00 721.9 2 21 70.00 44.00 0.00 21.00 742.9 2 22 63.00 46.00 0.00 18.50 761.4 2 23 55.00 36.00 0.00 9.50 770.9 2 24 54.00 30.00 0.00 7.31 778.2 Initial 3rd instars exit leaf mines begin leaf tying (2-5%) 2 25 56.00 28.00 0.00 7.87 786.1 2 26 57.00 39.00 0.00 12.00 798.1 2 27 48.00 38.00 0.00 7.00 805.1 2 28 57.00 39.00 0.00 12.00 817.1 3 1 61.00 40.00 0.00 14.50 831.6 3 2 67.00 41.00 0.00 18.00 849.6 3 3 72.00 47.00 0.00 23.50 873.1 3 4 67.00 41.00 0.00 18.00 891.1 3 5 62.00 44.00 0.00 17.00 908.1 3 6 61.00 38.00 0.00 13.50 921.6 3 7 73.00 39.00 0.00 20.00 941.6 3 8 79.00 47.00 0.00 27.00 968.6 3 9 79.00 52.00 0.00 29.50 998.1 3 10 80.00 50.00 0.00 29.00 1027.1 3 11 81.00 49.00 0.00 29.00 1056.1 3 12 80.00 51.00 0.00 29.50 1085.6 3 13 83.00 56.00 0.00 33.50 1119.1 3 14 85.00 53.00 0.00 33.00 1152.1 3 15 81.00 54.00 0.00 31.50 1183.6 3 16 83.00 49.00 0.00 30.00 1213.6 Peak 3rd instars exit leaf mines begin leaf tying (50-60%) 3 17 83.00 55.00 0.00 33.00 1246.6 3 18 83.00 59.00 0.00 35.00 1281.6 3 19 86.00 52.00 0.00 33.00 1314.6 3 20 85.00 60.00 0.00 36.50 1351.1 3 21 80.00 50.00 0.00 29.00 1380.1 3 22 71.00 48.00 0.00 23.50 1403.6 3 23 59.00 43.00 0.00 15.00 1418.6 3 24 70.00 37.00 0.00 17.50 1436.1 3 25 70.00 43.00 0.00 20.50 1456.6 3 26 72.00 45.00 0.00 22.50 1479.1 3 27 72.00 44.00 0.00 22.00 1501.1 3 28 71.00 47.00 0.00 23.00 1524.1 3 29 80.00 50.00 0.00 29.00 1553.1 3 30 76.00 42.00 0.00 23.00 1576.1 Last 3rd instars exit leaf mines begin leaf tying (90-100%) 3 31 55.00 41.00 0.00 12.00 1588.1 4 1 66.00 41.00 0.00 17.50 1605.6 4 2 77.00 38.00 0.00 21.50 1627.1 4 3 73.00 42.00 0.00 21.50 1648.6 4 4 72.10 42.00 0.00 21.05 1669.6 Hx Hn 4 5 74.30 58.00 0.00 30.15 1699.8 Hx First larvae finish development to pupate 4 6 82.00 58.10 0.00 34.05 1733.8 Vn 4 7 80.00 46.00 0.00 27.00 1760.8 4 8 77.00 47.00 0.00 26.00 1786.8 4 9 72.00 50.00 0.00 25.00 1811.8 4 10 76.00 45.00 0.00 24.50 1836.3 4 11 78.00 47.00 0.00 26.50 1862.8 4 12 83.00 53.00 0.00 32.00 1894.8 4 13 82.00 48.00 0.00 29.00 1923.8 4 14 79.00 45.00 0.00 26.00 1949.8 4 15 81.00 47.00 0.00 28.00 1977.8 4 16 82.00 52.00 0.00 31.00 2008.8 4 17 83.00 47.00 0.00 29.00 2037.8 4 18 84.00 47.00 0.00 29.50 2067.3 First moths emerge 4 19 82.00 58.00 0.00 34.00 2101.3 4 20 85.00 53.00 0.00 33.00 2134.3 4 21 86.00 49.00 0.00 31.50 2165.8 4 22 88.00 56.00 0.00 36.00 2201.8 4 23 88.00 49.00 0.00 32.50 2234.3 4 24 82.00 50.00 0.00 30.00 2264.3 4 25 78.00 53.00 0.00 29.50 2293.8 First eggs next generation oviposited 4 26 82.00 46.00 0.00 28.00 2321.8 4 27 82.00 52.00 0.00 31.00 2352.8 4 28 74.00 53.00 0.00 27.50 2380.3 4 29 72.00 49.00 0.00 24.50 2404.8 4 30 79.00 53.00 0.00 30.00 2434.8 5 1 86.00 47.00 0.00 30.50 2465.3 5 2 88.00 54.00 0.00 35.00 2500.3 5 3 92.00 65.00 0.00 42.50 2542.8 Last larvae finish feeding 5 4 94.00 66.00 0.00 44.00 2586.8 5 5 97.00 65.00 0.00 45.00 2631.8 5 6 87.00 58.00 0.00 36.50 2668.3 5 7 66.00 50.00 0.00 22.00 2690.3 5 8 78.00 52.00 0.00 29.00 2719.3 5 9 63.00 49.00 0.00 20.00 2739.3 5 10 68.00 46.00 0.00 21.00 2760.3 5 11 86.00 50.00 0.00 32.00 2792.3 First eggs hatch next generation will seek hibernation sites 5 12 88.00 62.00 0.00 39.00 2831.3 5 13 86.00 50.00 0.00 32.00 2863.3 5 14 81.00 48.00 0.00 28.50 2891.8 5 15 76.00 44.00 0.00 24.00 2915.8 5 16 71.00 48.00 0.00 23.50 2939.3 5 17 75.00 44.00 0.00 23.50 2962.8 5 18 77.00 51.00 0.00 28.00 2990.8 5 19 79.00 49.00 0.00 28.00 3018.8 5 20 87.00 56.00 0.00 35.50 3054.3 5 21 93.00 63.00 0.00 42.00 3096.3 5 22 94.00 65.00 0.00 43.50 3139.8 5 23 98.00 60.00 0.00 43.00 3182.8 5 24 98.00 63.00 0.00 44.50 3227.3 5 25 90.00 59.00 0.00 38.50 3265.8 5 26 86.00 53.00 0.00 33.50 3299.3 5 27 89.00 52.00 0.00 34.50 3333.8 5 28 94.00 61.00 0.00 41.50 3375.3 5 29 96.00 67.00 0.00 45.50 3420.8 5 30 94.00 65.00 0.00 43.50 3464.3 5 31 92.00 64.00 0.00 42.00 3506.3 6 1 90.00 60.00 0.00 39.00 3545.3 6 2 96.00 64.00 0.00 44.00 3589.3 6 3 101.00 71.00 0.00 49.92 3639.2 6 4 101.00 70.00 0.00 49.42 3688.7 Last eggs hatch and seek hibernation sites 6 5 101.00 75.00 0.00 51.92 3740.6 6 6 100.00 73.00 0.00 50.50 3791.1 6 7 99.00 64.00 0.00 45.50 3836.6 6 8 96.00 61.00 0.00 42.50 3879.1 6 9 98.00 64.00 0.00 45.00 3924.1 6 10 92.00 57.00 0.00 38.50 3962.6 6 11 89.00 63.00 0.00 40.00 4002.6 6 12 84.00 63.00 0.00 37.50 4040.1 6 13 90.00 56.00 0.00 37.00 4077.1 6 14 97.00 62.00 0.00 43.50 4120.6 6 15 101.00 66.00 0.00 47.43 4168.0 6 16 103.00 61.00 0.00 45.66 4213.7 6 17 105.00 60.00 0.00 45.78 4259.4 6 18 109.00 64.00 0.00 48.76 4308.2 6 19 111.00 70.00 0.00 52.01 4360.2 6 20 112.00 78.00 0.00 55.85 4416.1 6 21 112.00 73.00 0.00 53.58 4469.6 6 22 109.00 72.00 0.00 52.57 4522.2 6 23 108.00 69.00 0.00 50.93 4573.1 6 24 109.00 71.00 0.00 52.09 4625.2 6 25 107.00 81.00 0.00 56.41 4681.6 6 26 104.00 70.00 0.00 50.41 4732.1 6 27 103.00 70.00 0.00 50.11 4782.2 6 28 99.00 64.00 0.00 45.50 4827.7 6 29 100.00 63.00 0.00 45.50 4873.2 6 30 102.00 68.00 0.00 48.79 4922.0 Forecast using: 1910 D9216 PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES Lat34.2825 Long-112.1992 DD50