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insect model of Gang. and Ali. 1985 |
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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program: Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: obliquebanded leafroller [hazelnut] Type: insect Model source/other links: Gang. and Ali. 1985 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 90 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date Starting/BIOFIX date: 3 1 Ending date: 7 31 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 80 DD after biofix: 50% larvae out of overwintering diapause 2. 245 DD after biofix: Peak larval molt to final stage; 75% larvae out of diapause 3. 450 DD after biofix: 5% catch in pheromone traps 4. 515 DD after biofix: Peak in pupal population 5. 535 DD after biofix: First eggs laid - 1st generation 6. 655 DD after biofix: 50% catch in pheromone traps 7. 735 DD after biofix: Peak egg laying; 80% catch in pheromone traps 8. 935 DD after biofix: Peak egg hatch - 1st generation 9. 1230 DD after biofix: Peak third stage (small) larvae 10. 1590 DD after biofix: Peak 6th stage (large) larvae 11. 1690 DD after biofix: First catch in pheromone traps - 1st generation 12. 1775 DD after biofix: First eggs laid 2nd gen; 25% catch in traps ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2017 HRHW Agrimet HARRA WA Lat46.3844 Long-120.5742 Elev:850 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 3 1 50.70 38.90 0.00 0.07 0.1 * START * 3 2 49.20 31.50 0.00 0.00 0.1 3 3 53.60 33.80 0.00 0.66 0.7 3 4 49.00 31.40 0.00 0.00 0.7 3 5 47.90 33.10 0.00 0.00 0.7 3 6 47.00 32.50 0.00 0.00 0.7 3 7 41.10 27.50 0.07 0.00 0.7 3 8 52.90 32.70 0.01 0.47 1.2 3 9 44.20 34.20 0.07 0.00 1.2 3 10 64.00 45.20 0.00 5.66 6.9 3 11 56.10 34.80 0.01 1.43 8.3 3 12 59.60 36.70 0.00 2.77 11.1 3 13 53.80 36.70 0.06 0.78 11.8 *Warning: using yesterdays min* 3 14 64.00 36.70 0.04 4.52 16.4 *Warning: using yesterdays min* 3 15 63.40 49.00 0.01 6.31 22.7 3 16 56.20 36.60 0.00 1.53 24.2 3 17 50.20 33.70 0.00 0.01 24.2 3 18 60.30 37.80 0.01 3.12 27.3 3 19 52.80 32.30 0.00 0.45 27.8 3 20 49.60 31.40 0.03 0.00 27.8 3 21 49.80 39.60 0.16 0.00 27.8 3 22 57.30 41.40 0.12 2.21 30.0 3 23 57.60 32.50 0.00 1.83 31.8 3 24 56.50 42.80 0.21 2.01 33.8 3 25 58.30 41.10 0.00 2.59 36.4 3 26 46.50 35.80 0.08 0.00 36.4 3 27 60.10 34.70 0.01 2.83 39.3 3 28 58.30 42.50 0.00 2.72 42.0 3 29 62.20 44.00 0.10 4.62 46.6 3 30 60.70 35.40 0.00 3.10 49.7 3 31 64.10 29.90 0.00 4.03 53.7 4 1 67.40 38.40 0.00 6.16 59.9 4 2 57.90 37.00 0.00 2.15 62.0 4 3 57.20 27.20 0.00 1.54 63.6 4 4 60.90 33.30 0.00 3.04 66.6 Hx Hn 4 5 63.20 42.80 0.01 4.89 71.5 4 6 64.50 44.40 0.09 5.74 77.2 4 7 56.90 43.80 0.14 2.26 79.5 4 8 57.10 41.90 0.00 2.17 81.7 50% larvae out of overwintering diapause 4 9 56.30 29.10 0.00 1.32 83.0 4 10 58.20 37.40 0.00 2.28 85.3 4 11 57.80 28.10 0.00 1.75 87.0 4 12 56.90 43.70 0.60 2.25 89.3 4 13 57.90 43.40 0.01 2.64 91.9 4 14 58.50 38.10 0.00 2.44 94.4 4 15 59.60 32.70 0.00 2.53 96.9 4 16 61.10 33.50 0.00 3.13 100.0 4 17 65.80 48.50 0.02 7.34 107.4 4 18 64.00 44.00 0.11 5.44 112.8 4 19 61.50 35.30 0.24 3.40 116.2 4 20 64.20 44.30 0.02 5.59 121.8 4 21 64.30 33.50 0.00 4.36 126.1 4 22 64.10 40.20 0.00 4.94 131.1 4 23 60.80 45.40 0.00 4.20 135.3 4 24 56.40 45.20 0.00 2.20 137.5 4 25 60.80 38.10 0.00 3.34 140.8 4 26 64.40 41.80 0.00 5.28 146.1 4 27 62.00 38.90 0.00 3.90 150.0 4 28 67.50 34.60 0.00 5.77 155.8 4 29 62.00 34.30 0.00 3.52 159.3 4 30 63.80 45.90 0.00 5.70 165.0 5 1 60.40 31.60 0.00 2.76 167.8 5 2 66.90 40.00 0.00 6.15 173.9 5 3 78.90 48.90 0.00 13.99 187.9 5 4 83.80 54.10 0.04 18.95 206.9 5 5 72.30 51.60 0.07 11.95 218.8 5 6 63.90 43.10 0.00 5.25 224.1 5 7 67.50 29.60 0.00 5.32 229.4 5 8 72.90 36.50 0.00 8.34 237.7 5 9 75.00 41.90 0.00 10.20 247.9 Peak larval molt to final stage; 75% larvae out of diapause 5 10 80.80 45.80 0.00 13.92 261.8 5 11 66.80 49.90 0.03 8.35 270.2 5 12 63.00 43.40 0.01 4.89 275.1 Pn 5 13 61.00 41.30 0.00 3.73 278.8 5 14 63.80 35.50 0.00 4.33 283.1 5 15 66.20 33.80 0.00 5.16 288.3 5 16 61.00 47.10 0.00 4.62 292.9 5 17 70.90 40.80 0.00 8.08 301.0 5 18 74.40 39.30 0.00 9.44 310.5 5 19 79.50 45.20 0.00 13.12 323.6 5 20 78.00 48.40 0.00 13.36 336.9 5 21 82.80 46.60 0.00 15.15 352.1 5 22 88.40 49.60 0.00 19.02 371.1 5 23 94.40 52.20 0.00 22.69 393.8 5 24 71.30 49.10 0.00 10.28 404.1 5 25 74.80 40.80 0.00 9.89 414.0 5 26 81.30 43.00 0.00 13.44 427.4 5 27 86.50 49.90 0.00 18.20 445.6 5 28 91.00 51.00 0.00 20.93 466.5 5% catch in pheromone traps 5 29 93.30 55.40 0.00 23.93 490.5 5 30 93.50 59.20 0.20 25.87 516.3 Peak in pupal population 5 31 74.60 55.20 0.00 14.90 531.2 6 1 75.10 54.70 0.05 14.90 546.1 First eggs laid - 1st generation 6 2 81.50 49.60 0.00 15.57 561.7 6 3 83.80 52.30 0.00 18.05 579.8 6 4 76.30 51.60 0.00 13.95 593.7 6 5 77.60 38.30 0.00 10.75 604.5 6 6 85.80 50.00 0.00 17.90 622.4 6 7 90.40 57.50 0.00 23.93 646.3 6 8 75.80 54.70 0.03 15.25 661.5 50% catch in pheromone traps 6 9 70.70 48.00 0.00 9.60 671.1 6 10 72.40 44.20 0.00 9.44 680.6 6 11 76.40 40.00 0.00 10.49 691.1 6 12 77.70 45.90 0.00 12.43 703.5 6 13 73.80 51.60 0.00 12.70 716.2 6 14 70.30 42.50 0.00 8.10 724.3 6 15 68.30 52.40 0.02 10.35 734.7 6 16 73.80 58.80 0.00 16.30 751.0 Peak egg laying; 80% catch in pheromone traps 6 17 78.30 48.70 0.00 13.62 764.6 6 18 86.20 60.60 0.00 23.40 788.0 6 19 93.40 59.10 0.00 25.79 813.8 6 20 90.10 64.60 0.00 27.35 841.1 6 21 85.50 48.80 0.00 17.24 858.4 6 22 81.50 43.10 0.00 13.56 871.9 6 23 86.80 49.50 0.00 18.17 890.1 6 24 91.90 50.30 0.00 20.93 911.0 6 25 97.70 52.40 0.00 23.68 934.7 6 26 97.60 66.90 0.00 30.60 965.3 Peak egg hatch - 1st generation 6 27 88.10 61.70 0.00 24.90 990.2 6 28 88.80 50.20 0.00 19.50 1009.7 6 29 85.50 49.30 0.00 17.44 1027.1 6 30 92.20 53.50 0.00 22.63 1049.8 7 1 94.90 59.40 0.00 26.37 1076.1 7 2 94.20 54.70 0.00 23.86 1100.0 7 3 90.60 52.00 0.00 21.27 1121.3 7 4 92.50 52.60 0.00 22.28 1143.5 7 5 99.00 54.50 0.00 25.00 1168.5 7 6 100.50 63.50 0.00 29.55 1198.1 7 7 100.10 59.90 0.00 27.79 1225.9 7 8 94.20 52.80 0.00 22.93 1248.8 Peak third stage (small) larvae 7 9 95.20 59.50 0.00 26.49 1275.3 7 10 89.70 59.60 0.00 24.65 1300.0 7 11 87.80 49.70 0.00 18.76 1318.7 7 12 90.50 54.40 0.00 22.43 1341.1 7 13 92.10 61.40 0.00 26.52 1367.7 7 14 91.80 52.90 0.00 22.18 1389.8 7 15 96.10 58.80 0.00 26.38 1416.2 7 16 82.50 56.10 0.00 19.30 1435.5 7 17 85.10 48.00 0.00 16.75 1452.3 7 18 90.90 49.70 0.00 20.25 1472.5 7 19 91.30 56.30 0.00 23.69 1496.2 7 20 83.50 59.00 0.00 21.25 1517.5 7 21 86.40 47.70 0.00 17.29 1534.8 7 22 92.10 55.70 0.00 23.68 1558.4 7 23 98.10 61.70 0.00 28.24 1586.7 7 24 89.40 55.00 0.00 22.20 1608.9 Peak 6th stage (large) larvae 7 25 94.70 56.30 0.00 24.79 1633.7 7 26 97.30 59.70 0.00 27.11 1660.8 7 27 93.90 58.20 0.00 25.50 1686.3 7 28 92.80 52.10 0.00 22.14 1708.4 First catch in pheromone traps - 1st generation 7 29 95.80 53.50 0.00 23.73 1732.1 7 30 95.50 54.90 0.00 24.33 1756.5 7 31 95.10 54.90 0.00 24.22 1780.7 First eggs laid 2nd gen; 25% catch in traps Forecast using: 1910 HRHW PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES Lat46.3844 Long-120.5742 DD50