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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Brunner et al 1997
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 43 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 85 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first catch of moths in pheromone traps
Starting/BIOFIX date: 5 20
Ending date: 7 0
Model validation status: not fully tested
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 140 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch
2. 440 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 1% egg hatch
3. 585 DD after 1st catch: 98% catch, 50% egg hatch
4. 780 DD after 1st catch: 95% egg hatch
5. 900 DD after 1st catch: Mostly small larvae present
6. 1200 DD after 1st catch: Mostly large larvae present
7. 1480 DD after 1st catch: 5% catch next generation
8. 1890 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch, 1% egg hatch
9. 2050 DD after 1st catch: 68% catch, 25% egg hatch
10. 2170 DD after 1st catch: 79% catch, 50% egg hatch
11. 2530 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 95% egg hatch
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2017 KCCR METAR Concord Buchanan Fld CA Lat:37.9917 Long:-122.0517 Elev:23
mn day max min precip DD43 CUMDD43 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
5 20 93.90 57.00 0.00 30.55 30.5 * START *
5 21 95.00 57.00 0.00 30.76 61.3
5 22 93.00 55.00 0.00 29.41 90.7
5 23 90.00 55.00 0.00 28.69 119.4
5 24 73.90 53.60 0.00 20.75 140.1 50% catch
5 25 70.00 55.40 0.00 19.70 159.8
5 26 70.00 54.00 0.00 19.00 178.8
5 27 77.00 53.10 0.00 22.05 200.9
5 28 80.60 53.60 0.00 24.10 225.0
5 29 72.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 244.8
5 30 73.40 53.60 0.02 20.50 265.3
5 31 81.00 55.40 0.13 25.20 290.5
6 1 81.00 57.20 0.00 26.10 316.6
6 2 90.00 57.00 0.00 29.66 346.3
6 3 84.90 57.20 0.00 28.05 374.3
6 4 84.20 55.40 0.00 26.80 401.1
6 5 90.00 53.60 0.00 28.00 429.1
6 6 84.90 55.00 0.00 26.95 456.1 95% catch, 1% egg hatch
6 7 80.10 55.40 0.00 24.75 480.8
6 8 71.60 60.10 0.01 22.85 503.7
6 9 75.20 57.00 0.00 23.10 526.8
6 10 75.00 55.00 0.00 22.00 548.8
6 11 71.60 53.10 0.00 19.35 568.1
6 12 73.90 53.60 0.00 20.75 588.9 98% catch, 50% egg hatch
6 13 84.20 53.60 0.00 25.90 614.8
6 14 90.00 59.00 0.00 30.63 645.4
6 15 91.40 59.00 0.00 30.97 676.4
6 16 97.00 64.40 0.00 34.48 710.8
6 17 100.40 69.10 0.00 36.89 747.7
6 18 108.00 73.00 0.00 38.90 786.6 95% egg hatch
6 19 93.00 66.00 0.00 34.59 821.2
6 20 100.40 62.10 0.00 33.91 855.1
6 21 99.00 62.10 0.00 33.73 888.9
6 22 105.10 66.00 0.00 36.05 924.9 Mostly small larvae present
6 23 91.40 62.60 0.00 32.69 957.6
6 24 88.00 59.00 0.00 30.09 987.7
6 25 82.40 59.00 0.00 27.70 1015.4
6 26 80.60 60.10 0.00 27.35 1042.7
6 27 81.00 59.00 0.00 27.00 1069.7
6 28 87.80 57.00 0.00 29.04 1098.8
6 29 89.60 57.00 0.00 29.56 1128.3
6 30 84.20 55.40 0.00 26.80 1155.1
Forecast using: 1910 KCCR PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES Lat37.9917 Long-122.0517 DD50
obliquebanded leafroller model - Brunner et al 1997Location: 2017 KCCR Concord Buchanan Fld 1910 KCCR PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES Date | DDs | Event |
5-24-17 | 140 | 50% catch |
6-6-17 | 456 | 95% catch, 1% egg hatch |
6-12-17 | 589 | 98% catch, 50% egg hatch |
6-18-17 | 787 | 95% egg hatch |
6-22-17 | 925 | Mostly small larvae present |
4-12-17 | 1216 | Mostly large larvae present |
4-28-17 | 1483 | 5% catch next generation |
5-17-17 | 1909 | 50% catch, 1% egg hatch |