Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
eggsimmaturepupaadult
obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits]
insect model of Brunner et al 1997


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits] Type: insect Model source/other links: Brunner et al 1997 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 43 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 85 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first catch of moths in pheromone traps Starting/BIOFIX date: 5 20 Ending date: 7 0 Model validation status: not fully tested Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 140 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch 2. 440 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 1% egg hatch 3. 585 DD after 1st catch: 98% catch, 50% egg hatch 4. 780 DD after 1st catch: 95% egg hatch 5. 900 DD after 1st catch: Mostly small larvae present 6. 1200 DD after 1st catch: Mostly large larvae present 7. 1480 DD after 1st catch: 5% catch next generation 8. 1890 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch, 1% egg hatch 9. 2050 DD after 1st catch: 68% catch, 25% egg hatch 10. 2170 DD after 1st catch: 79% catch, 50% egg hatch 11. 2530 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 95% egg hatch ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2017 KCCR METAR Concord Buchanan Fld CA Lat:37.9917 Long:-122.0517 Elev:23 mn day max min precip DD43 CUMDD43 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 5 20 93.90 57.00 0.00 30.55 30.5 * START * 5 21 95.00 57.00 0.00 30.76 61.3 5 22 93.00 55.00 0.00 29.41 90.7 5 23 90.00 55.00 0.00 28.69 119.4 5 24 73.90 53.60 0.00 20.75 140.1 50% catch 5 25 70.00 55.40 0.00 19.70 159.8 5 26 70.00 54.00 0.00 19.00 178.8 5 27 77.00 53.10 0.00 22.05 200.9 5 28 80.60 53.60 0.00 24.10 225.0 5 29 72.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 244.8 5 30 73.40 53.60 0.02 20.50 265.3 5 31 81.00 55.40 0.13 25.20 290.5 6 1 81.00 57.20 0.00 26.10 316.6 6 2 90.00 57.00 0.00 29.66 346.3 6 3 84.90 57.20 0.00 28.05 374.3 6 4 84.20 55.40 0.00 26.80 401.1 6 5 90.00 53.60 0.00 28.00 429.1 6 6 84.90 55.00 0.00 26.95 456.1 95% catch, 1% egg hatch 6 7 80.10 55.40 0.00 24.75 480.8 6 8 71.60 60.10 0.01 22.85 503.7 6 9 75.20 57.00 0.00 23.10 526.8 6 10 75.00 55.00 0.00 22.00 548.8 6 11 71.60 53.10 0.00 19.35 568.1 6 12 73.90 53.60 0.00 20.75 588.9 98% catch, 50% egg hatch 6 13 84.20 53.60 0.00 25.90 614.8 6 14 90.00 59.00 0.00 30.63 645.4 6 15 91.40 59.00 0.00 30.97 676.4 6 16 97.00 64.40 0.00 34.48 710.8 6 17 100.40 69.10 0.00 36.89 747.7 6 18 108.00 73.00 0.00 38.90 786.6 95% egg hatch 6 19 93.00 66.00 0.00 34.59 821.2 6 20 100.40 62.10 0.00 33.91 855.1 6 21 99.00 62.10 0.00 33.73 888.9 6 22 105.10 66.00 0.00 36.05 924.9 Mostly small larvae present 6 23 91.40 62.60 0.00 32.69 957.6 6 24 88.00 59.00 0.00 30.09 987.7 6 25 82.40 59.00 0.00 27.70 1015.4 6 26 80.60 60.10 0.00 27.35 1042.7 6 27 81.00 59.00 0.00 27.00 1069.7 6 28 87.80 57.00 0.00 29.04 1098.8 6 29 89.60 57.00 0.00 29.56 1128.3 6 30 84.20 55.40 0.00 26.80 1155.1 Forecast using: 1910 KCCR PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES Lat37.9917 Long-122.0517 DD50
obliquebanded leafroller model - Brunner et al 1997
Location: 2017 KCCR Concord Buchanan Fld
1910 KCCR PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES
DateDDsEvent
 5-24-17 14050% catch
 6-6-17 45695% catch, 1% egg hatch
 6-12-17 58998% catch, 50% egg hatch
 6-18-17 78795% egg hatch
 6-22-17 925Mostly small larvae present
 4-12-17 1216Mostly large larvae present
 4-28-17 14835% catch next generation
 5-17-17 190950% catch, 1% egg hatch
degree-day graph of obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits] Brunner et al 1997