Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
eggsimmaturepupaadult
obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits]
insect model of Brunner et al 1997


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits] Type: insect Model source/other links: Brunner et al 1997 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 43 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 85 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first catch of moths in pheromone traps Starting/BIOFIX date: 5 20 Ending date: 7 0 Model validation status: not fully tested Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 140 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch 2. 440 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 1% egg hatch 3. 585 DD after 1st catch: 98% catch, 50% egg hatch 4. 780 DD after 1st catch: 95% egg hatch 5. 900 DD after 1st catch: Mostly small larvae present 6. 1200 DD after 1st catch: Mostly large larvae present 7. 1480 DD after 1st catch: 5% catch next generation 8. 1890 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch, 1% egg hatch 9. 2050 DD after 1st catch: 68% catch, 25% egg hatch 10. 2170 DD after 1st catch: 79% catch, 50% egg hatch 11. 2530 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 95% egg hatch ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2017 CI165 CIMIS Sisquoc CA Lat34.8406 Long-120.2117 Elev:544 mn day max min precip DD43 CUMDD43 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 5 20 83.30 51.90 0.00 24.60 24.6 * START * 5 21 82.20 47.70 0.00 21.95 46.5 5 22 73.70 49.60 0.00 18.65 65.2 5 23 73.80 50.10 0.00 18.95 84.2 5 24 76.20 48.70 0.00 19.45 103.6 Px 5 25 98.80 68.80 0.00 36.61 140.2 Px Pn 50% catch 5 26 100.80 90.00 0.00 42.00 182.2 Px Pn 5 27 100.70 81.00 0.00 41.22 223.4 Px Pn 5 28 87.00 73.50 0.00 36.92 260.3 Px Pn 5 29 69.30 53.40 0.00 18.35 278.7 Vx Vn 5 30 79.90 71.00 0.00 32.45 311.1 Px Pn 5 31 85.50 81.20 0.00 40.28 351.4 Px Pn 6 1 73.60 53.30 0.00 20.45 371.9 Vx Vn 6 2 78.40 76.90 0.00 34.65 406.5 Px Pn 6 3 83.10 69.40 0.00 33.25 439.8 Px Pn 6 4 76.20 66.90 0.00 28.55 468.3 Px Pn 95% catch, 1% egg hatch 6 5 73.50 68.10 0.00 27.80 496.1 Pn 6 6 68.90 50.90 0.00 16.90 513.0 6 7 72.40 52.60 0.00 19.50 532.5 6 8 71.30 49.00 0.00 17.15 549.7 6 9 73.20 52.70 0.00 19.95 569.6 6 10 68.00 51.20 0.00 16.60 586.2 98% catch, 50% egg hatch 6 11 65.30 46.40 0.00 12.85 599.1 6 12 65.50 43.40 0.00 11.45 610.5 6 13 77.30 44.60 0.00 17.95 628.5 6 14 85.70 83.80 0.00 41.56 670.0 Px Pn 6 15 83.60 76.90 0.00 37.25 707.3 Px Pn 6 16 83.00 47.00 0.00 22.00 729.3 6 17 81.10 54.10 0.00 24.60 753.9 6 18 82.50 55.50 0.00 26.00 779.9 6 19 87.00 56.40 0.00 28.48 808.4 95% egg hatch 6 20 78.90 55.30 0.00 24.10 832.5 6 21 77.00 54.20 0.00 22.60 855.1 6 22 78.70 52.60 0.00 22.65 877.7 6 23 76.20 57.20 0.00 23.70 901.4 Mostly small larvae present 6 24 73.60 55.20 0.00 21.40 922.8 6 25 76.10 52.80 0.00 21.45 944.3 6 26 79.00 46.90 0.00 19.95 964.2 6 27 71.60 50.60 0.00 18.10 982.3 6 28 70.90 53.50 0.00 19.20 1001.5 6 29 70.00 52.40 0.00 18.20 1019.7 6 30 69.10 52.00 0.00 17.55 1037.3 Forecast using: 1910 CI165 PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES Lat34.8406 Long-120.2117 DD50
obliquebanded leafroller model - Brunner et al 1997
Location: 2017 CI165 Sisquoc CA
1910 CI165 PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES
DateDDsEvent
 5-25-17 14050% catch
 6-4-17 46895% catch, 1% egg hatch
 6-10-17 58698% catch, 50% egg hatch
 6-19-17 80895% egg hatch
 6-23-17 901Mostly small larvae present
 4-9-17 1209Mostly large larvae present
 4-27-17 14965% catch next generation
degree-day graph of obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits] Brunner et al 1997