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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Brunner et al 1997
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 43 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 85 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first catch of moths in pheromone traps
Starting/BIOFIX date: 5 20
Ending date: 7 0
Model validation status: not fully tested
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 140 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch
2. 440 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 1% egg hatch
3. 585 DD after 1st catch: 98% catch, 50% egg hatch
4. 780 DD after 1st catch: 95% egg hatch
5. 900 DD after 1st catch: Mostly small larvae present
6. 1200 DD after 1st catch: Mostly large larvae present
7. 1480 DD after 1st catch: 5% catch next generation
8. 1890 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch, 1% egg hatch
9. 2050 DD after 1st catch: 68% catch, 25% egg hatch
10. 2170 DD after 1st catch: 79% catch, 50% egg hatch
11. 2530 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 95% egg hatch
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2017 CI165 CIMIS Sisquoc CA Lat34.8406 Long-120.2117 Elev:544
mn day max min precip DD43 CUMDD43 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
5 20 83.30 51.90 0.00 24.60 24.6 * START *
5 21 82.20 47.70 0.00 21.95 46.5
5 22 73.70 49.60 0.00 18.65 65.2
5 23 73.80 50.10 0.00 18.95 84.2
5 24 76.20 48.70 0.00 19.45 103.6 Px
5 25 98.80 68.80 0.00 36.61 140.2 Px Pn 50% catch
5 26 100.80 90.00 0.00 42.00 182.2 Px Pn
5 27 100.70 81.00 0.00 41.22 223.4 Px Pn
5 28 87.00 73.50 0.00 36.92 260.3 Px Pn
5 29 69.30 53.40 0.00 18.35 278.7 Vx Vn
5 30 79.90 71.00 0.00 32.45 311.1 Px Pn
5 31 85.50 81.20 0.00 40.28 351.4 Px Pn
6 1 73.60 53.30 0.00 20.45 371.9 Vx Vn
6 2 78.40 76.90 0.00 34.65 406.5 Px Pn
6 3 83.10 69.40 0.00 33.25 439.8 Px Pn
6 4 76.20 66.90 0.00 28.55 468.3 Px Pn 95% catch, 1% egg hatch
6 5 73.50 68.10 0.00 27.80 496.1 Pn
6 6 68.90 50.90 0.00 16.90 513.0
6 7 72.40 52.60 0.00 19.50 532.5
6 8 71.30 49.00 0.00 17.15 549.7
6 9 73.20 52.70 0.00 19.95 569.6
6 10 68.00 51.20 0.00 16.60 586.2 98% catch, 50% egg hatch
6 11 65.30 46.40 0.00 12.85 599.1
6 12 65.50 43.40 0.00 11.45 610.5
6 13 77.30 44.60 0.00 17.95 628.5
6 14 85.70 83.80 0.00 41.56 670.0 Px Pn
6 15 83.60 76.90 0.00 37.25 707.3 Px Pn
6 16 83.00 47.00 0.00 22.00 729.3
6 17 81.10 54.10 0.00 24.60 753.9
6 18 82.50 55.50 0.00 26.00 779.9
6 19 87.00 56.40 0.00 28.48 808.4 95% egg hatch
6 20 78.90 55.30 0.00 24.10 832.5
6 21 77.00 54.20 0.00 22.60 855.1
6 22 78.70 52.60 0.00 22.65 877.7
6 23 76.20 57.20 0.00 23.70 901.4 Mostly small larvae present
6 24 73.60 55.20 0.00 21.40 922.8
6 25 76.10 52.80 0.00 21.45 944.3
6 26 79.00 46.90 0.00 19.95 964.2
6 27 71.60 50.60 0.00 18.10 982.3
6 28 70.90 53.50 0.00 19.20 1001.5
6 29 70.00 52.40 0.00 18.20 1019.7
6 30 69.10 52.00 0.00 17.55 1037.3
Forecast using: 1910 CI165 PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES Lat34.8406 Long-120.2117 DD50
obliquebanded leafroller model - Brunner et al 1997Location: 2017 CI165 Sisquoc CA 1910 CI165 PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES Date | DDs | Event |
5-25-17 | 140 | 50% catch |
6-4-17 | 468 | 95% catch, 1% egg hatch |
6-10-17 | 586 | 98% catch, 50% egg hatch |
6-19-17 | 808 | 95% egg hatch |
6-23-17 | 901 | Mostly small larvae present |
4-9-17 | 1209 | Mostly large larvae present |
4-27-17 | 1496 | 5% catch next generation |