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Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: Oak Ambrosia Beetle [oak trees]
Type: invasive insect
Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 52 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 100 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 7 0
Model validation status: presumptive model based on several studies mainly from Japan
Region of known use: Dev. for use in US
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 423 DDs after Jan 1: Overwintering larvae pupate
2. 815 DDs after Jan 1: 1st adult emergence
3. 1229 DDs after Jan 1: 50% adult emergence
4. 2101 DDs after Jan 1: End adult emergence
5. 2440 DDs after Jan 1: Peak larvae develop in galleries
6. 3076 DDs after Jan 1: 2nd Gen. 1st adult emergence (warmer regions)
7. 3850 DDs after Jan 1: 2nd Gen. 50% adult emergence (warmer regions)
8. 4486 DDs after Jan 1: 2nd Gen. end adult emergence (warmer regions)
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2017 KLBB METAR Lubbock Int Apt TX Lat:33.6672 Long:-101.8214 Elev:3281
mn day max min precip DD52 CUMDD52 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 66.90 30.00 0.38 4.21 4.2 * START *
1 2 63.00 37.40 0.69 3.21 7.4
1 3 50.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 7.4
1 4 48.90 26.60 0.00 0.00 7.4
1 5 44.60 15.10 0.00 0.00 7.4
1 6 23.00 10.90 0.02 0.00 7.4
1 7 37.90 6.80 0.00 0.00 7.4
1 8 59.00 24.80 0.00 1.37 8.8
1 9 81.00 33.10 0.00 10.32 19.1
1 10 66.90 46.40 0.00 5.93 25.0
1 11 80.60 42.10 0.00 11.54 36.6
1 12 67.00 37.00 0.00 4.77 41.4
1 13 39.90 30.00 0.04 0.00 41.4
1 14 34.00 32.00 0.76 0.00 41.4
1 15 40.00 32.00 0.75 0.00 41.4
1 16 57.20 33.80 0.00 1.07 42.4
1 17 55.40 33.10 0.07 0.57 43.0
1 18 57.20 41.00 0.32 1.30 44.3
1 19 64.90 39.20 0.00 4.12 48.4
1 20 63.00 39.00 0.01 3.33 51.7
1 21 62.10 39.20 0.06 2.99 54.7
1 22 61.00 35.10 0.00 2.34 57.1
1 23 73.90 30.90 0.00 7.04 64.1
1 24 66.20 36.00 0.00 4.36 68.5
1 25 48.20 30.00 0.00 0.00 68.5
1 26 48.90 21.00 0.00 0.00 68.5
1 27 46.40 24.10 0.00 0.00 68.5
1 28 53.60 21.00 0.00 0.15 68.6
1 29 64.40 24.80 0.00 3.05 71.7
1 30 70.00 28.00 0.00 5.25 76.9
1 31 75.00 32.00 0.00 7.61 84.5
2 1 63.00 35.60 0.00 3.10 87.6
2 2 45.00 23.00 0.00 0.00 87.6
2 3 46.40 23.00 0.00 0.00 87.6
2 4 57.20 33.80 0.00 1.07 88.7
2 5 79.00 32.00 0.00 9.31 98.0
2 6 77.00 37.00 0.00 9.07 107.1
2 7 75.90 42.10 0.00 9.35 116.4
2 8 80.60 41.00 0.00 11.34 127.8
2 9 69.80 32.00 0.00 5.48 133.2
2 10 88.00 44.60 0.00 15.62 148.9
2 11 91.40 42.80 0.00 16.83 165.7
2 12 66.90 42.10 0.00 5.28 171.0
2 13 44.60 33.80 0.87 0.00 171.0
2 14 39.20 35.60 0.02 0.00 171.0
2 15 57.20 30.20 0.00 0.99 172.0
2 16 66.00 28.40 0.00 3.78 175.7
2 17 73.40 39.00 0.00 7.74 183.5
2 18 71.60 33.80 0.00 6.37 189.9
2 19 70.00 46.00 0.00 7.31 197.2
2 20 71.60 39.20 0.00 6.97 204.1
2 21 77.00 32.00 0.00 8.46 212.6
2 22 84.90 44.10 0.00 14.01 226.6
2 23 80.60 46.40 0.00 12.48 239.1
2 24 57.90 30.00 0.00 1.18 240.2
2 25 53.10 24.80 0.00 0.09 240.3
2 26 68.00 30.20 0.00 4.64 245.0
2 27 75.20 32.00 0.00 7.69 252.7
2 28 75.90 52.00 0.00 11.95 264.6
3 1 57.90 28.40 0.00 1.14 265.8
3 2 63.00 26.60 0.00 2.65 268.4
3 3 63.00 37.40 0.00 3.21 271.6
3 4 69.80 37.40 0.00 5.98 277.6
3 5 80.60 51.10 0.00 13.92 291.5
3 6 82.40 52.00 0.00 15.20 306.7
3 7 62.60 33.80 0.00 2.84 309.6
3 8 80.60 39.00 0.00 10.99 320.6
3 9 87.80 55.00 0.00 19.40 340.0
3 10 64.00 42.10 0.00 4.03 344.0
3 11 64.90 39.20 0.01 4.12 348.1
3 12 63.00 35.10 0.00 3.06 351.2
3 13 64.90 37.40 0.00 3.96 355.1
3 14 79.00 37.00 0.00 9.96 365.1
3 15 70.00 33.80 0.00 5.71 370.8
3 16 87.80 50.00 0.00 17.10 387.9
3 17 87.80 44.60 0.00 15.52 403.4
3 18 82.90 51.80 0.00 15.36 418.8
3 19 89.60 53.10 0.00 19.35 438.1 Overwintering larvae pupate
3 20 78.10 55.40 0.00 14.75 452.9
3 21 91.90 54.00 0.00 20.95 473.8
3 22 75.20 46.40 0.00 9.87 483.7
3 23 81.00 55.90 0.13 16.45 500.1
3 24 68.00 45.00 0.00 6.19 506.3
3 25 73.90 39.20 0.00 7.99 514.3
3 26 79.00 46.40 0.00 11.70 526.0
3 27 75.20 37.00 0.00 8.27 534.3
3 28 73.90 51.80 0.50 10.86 545.2
3 29 53.60 43.00 0.04 0.27 545.4
3 30 78.80 37.40 0.00 9.93 555.4
3 31 80.60 44.60 0.00 12.05 567.4
4 1 53.60 44.10 0.01 0.28 567.7
4 2 54.00 42.10 0.00 0.35 568.0
4 3 81.00 39.20 0.00 11.21 579.3
4 4 73.40 36.60 0.00 7.43 586.7 Hx Hn
4 5 64.90 37.00 0.00 3.93 590.6
4 6 75.20 39.00 0.00 8.54 599.2
4 7 82.00 48.00 0.00 13.59 612.7
4 8 93.20 53.60 0.00 21.40 634.1
4 9 89.60 57.20 0.00 21.40 655.5
4 10 73.40 51.10 0.00 10.33 665.9
4 11 75.90 46.00 0.00 10.11 676.0
4 12 69.80 51.80 0.81 8.81 684.8
4 13 73.40 53.60 0.59 11.50 696.3
4 14 75.90 57.20 0.00 14.55 710.8
4 15 82.90 60.80 0.00 19.85 730.7
4 16 84.20 62.10 0.00 21.15 751.8
4 17 82.40 51.80 0.01 15.11 767.0
4 18 84.90 53.60 0.00 17.25 784.2
4 19 91.40 60.10 0.00 23.75 808.0
4 20 75.90 57.00 0.00 14.45 822.4 1st adult emergence
4 21 88.00 50.00 0.00 17.20 839.6
4 22 66.90 44.60 0.00 5.63 845.2
4 23 71.60 39.00 0.00 6.94 852.2
4 24 93.90 48.20 0.00 19.52 871.7
4 25 88.00 60.80 0.00 22.40 894.1
4 26 69.80 46.40 0.00 7.29 901.4
4 27 89.60 41.00 0.00 15.57 917.0
4 28 84.90 51.10 0.38 16.06 933.0
4 29 54.00 37.00 0.13 0.29 933.3
4 30 64.90 35.60 0.00 3.82 937.1
5 1 79.00 39.20 0.00 10.29 947.4
5 2 93.00 48.00 0.00 19.01 966.4
5 3 73.40 51.10 0.00 10.33 976.8
5 4 75.20 42.80 0.00 9.15 985.9
5 5 84.20 44.60 0.00 13.78 999.7
5 6 91.40 48.20 0.00 18.28 1018.0
5 7 89.60 55.00 0.00 20.30 1038.3
5 8 78.80 57.00 0.00 15.90 1054.2
5 9 80.60 62.60 0.45 19.60 1073.8
5 10 82.90 59.00 3.81 18.95 1092.7
5 11 77.00 51.80 0.00 12.41 1105.1
5 12 79.00 48.90 0.00 12.38 1117.5
5 13 87.80 55.90 0.00 19.85 1137.4
5 14 97.00 57.20 0.02 25.10 1162.5
5 15 93.90 62.10 0.00 26.00 1188.5
5 16 93.20 60.10 0.00 24.65 1213.1
5 17 86.00 57.00 0.00 19.50 1232.6 50% adult emergence
5 18 91.40 63.00 0.00 25.20 1257.8
5 19 82.40 53.10 0.00 15.75 1273.6
5 20 78.80 46.00 0.00 11.51 1285.1
5 21 78.10 50.00 0.00 12.28 1297.3
5 22 80.10 53.10 0.00 14.60 1311.9
5 23 72.00 48.20 0.11 8.76 1320.7
5 24 89.60 46.00 0.00 16.76 1337.5
5 25 102.20 57.90 0.00 27.84 1365.3
5 26 96.80 59.00 0.00 25.90 1391.2
5 27 98.60 64.00 0.00 29.30 1420.5
5 28 84.90 55.00 0.00 17.95 1438.5
5 29 87.80 53.10 0.00 18.45 1456.9
5 30 88.00 55.00 0.00 19.50 1476.4
5 31 87.80 60.10 0.00 21.95 1498.4
6 1 82.90 60.10 0.00 19.50 1517.9
6 2 84.90 60.80 0.04 20.85 1538.7
6 3 86.00 62.60 0.03 22.30 1561.0
6 4 87.10 60.10 0.00 21.60 1582.6
6 5 91.40 59.00 0.00 23.20 1605.8
6 6 93.00 62.10 0.00 25.55 1631.4
6 7 90.00 62.10 0.08 24.05 1655.4
6 8 91.40 64.00 0.20 25.70 1681.1
6 9 93.20 64.00 1.67 26.60 1707.7
6 10 100.40 71.60 0.00 33.98 1741.7
6 11 100.40 71.10 0.00 33.73 1775.4
6 12 100.40 71.10 0.00 33.73 1809.1
6 13 100.90 69.80 0.00 33.28 1842.4
6 14 100.90 68.00 0.00 32.39 1874.8
6 15 100.40 69.80 0.23 33.08 1907.9
6 16 102.20 71.10 0.00 34.40 1942.3
6 17 111.90 73.00 0.00 37.56 1979.9
6 18 89.60 68.00 0.00 26.80 2006.7
6 19 81.00 64.40 0.01 20.70 2027.4
6 20 98.10 73.00 0.00 33.55 2060.9
6 21 99.00 71.10 0.20 33.05 2094.0
6 22 99.00 69.10 0.00 32.05 2126.0 End adult emergence
6 23 99.00 73.00 0.01 34.00 2160.0
6 24 82.40 62.10 0.00 20.25 2180.3
6 25 89.60 66.20 0.85 25.90 2206.2
6 26 82.90 60.10 5.54 19.50 2225.7
6 27 90.00 66.20 0.00 26.10 2251.8
6 28 96.80 72.00 0.00 32.40 2284.2
6 29 107.60 71.10 0.00 35.85 2320.0
6 30 100.40 69.10 1.00 32.73 2352.7
Forecast using: 1910 KLBB PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES Lat33.6672 Long-101.8214 DD50
Oak Ambrosia Beetle model - OSU OIPMC model analysisLocation: 2017 KLBB Lubbock Int Apt 1910 KLBB PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES | Date | DDs | Event |
| 3-19-17 | 438 | Overwintering larvae pupate |
| 4-20-17 | 822 | 1st adult emergence |
| 5-17-17 | 1233 | 50% adult emergence |
| 6-22-17 | 2126 | End adult emergence |
![degree-day graph of Oak Ambrosia Beetle [oak trees] OSU OIPMC model analysis](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?3647690)
