|
Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: Japanese beetle [multiple crops]
Type: invasive insect
Model source/other links: APHIS data
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 100 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 7 0
Model validation status: incomplete based on trapping data several years
Region of known use: potential for use in US
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 900 DDs after Jan 1: Place traps to monitor adult activity
2. 970 DDs after Jan 1: Approx. 2% adult emerg.
3. 1050 DDs after Jan 1: Approx. 10% dult emerge
4. 1600 DDs after Jan 1: Approx. 50% or peak adult emerge
5. 2080 DDs after Jan 1: Approx. 90% adult emerge
6. 2150 DDs after Jan 1: Approx. end of main period of adult activity
7. 2790 DDs after Jan 1: Approx. last adults trapped
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2017 D9240 APRSWXNET DW9240 Marana AZ Lat32.4297 Long:-111.0392 Elev:2749
mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 52.00 42.00 0.01 0.39 0.4 * START *
1 2 55.00 37.00 0.00 1.15 1.5
1 3 61.00 38.00 0.01 3.41 5.0
1 4 65.00 42.00 0.01 5.58 10.5
1 5 65.00 46.00 0.01 6.30 16.8
1 6 58.00 45.00 0.01 2.87 19.7
1 7 68.00 39.00 0.00 6.50 26.2
1 8 78.00 45.00 0.00 12.34 38.5
1 9 72.00 51.00 0.00 11.50 50.0
1 10 68.00 47.00 0.00 7.99 58.0
1 11 66.00 46.00 0.01 6.78 64.8
1 12 70.00 40.00 0.01 7.54 72.4
1 13 65.00 43.00 0.00 5.74 78.1
1 14 66.00 49.00 0.00 7.60 85.7
1 15 49.00 46.00 0.01 0.00 85.7
1 16 56.00 42.00 0.01 1.75 87.4
1 17 60.00 39.00 0.00 3.10 90.5
1 18 60.00 40.00 0.00 3.18 93.7
1 19 57.00 42.00 0.01 2.14 95.9
1 20 53.00 45.00 0.01 0.81 96.7
1 21 52.00 41.00 0.11 0.37 97.0
1 22 62.00 38.00 0.00 3.82 100.9
1 23 65.00 43.00 0.16 5.74 106.6
1 24 51.00 37.00 0.10 0.11 106.7
1 25 51.00 31.00 0.00 0.10 106.8
1 26 53.00 31.00 0.00 0.48 107.3
1 27 53.00 33.00 0.00 0.50 107.8
1 28 58.00 34.00 0.00 2.03 109.8
1 29 69.00 37.00 0.00 6.68 116.5
1 30 72.00 37.00 0.00 8.01 124.5
1 31 72.00 40.00 0.00 8.46 133.0
2 1 74.00 41.00 0.00 9.55 142.5
2 2 72.00 43.00 0.00 9.00 151.5
2 3 72.00 42.00 0.00 8.80 160.3
2 4 74.00 40.00 0.00 9.38 169.7
2 5 75.00 45.00 0.00 10.88 180.6
2 6 65.00 49.00 0.00 7.11 187.7
2 7 67.00 45.00 0.00 7.04 194.7
2 8 73.00 47.00 0.00 10.44 205.2
2 9 80.00 48.00 0.00 14.21 219.4
2 10 85.00 50.00 0.00 17.50 236.9
2 11 79.00 57.00 0.00 18.00 254.9
2 12 72.00 51.00 0.00 11.50 266.4
2 13 65.00 51.00 0.00 8.00 274.4
2 14 67.00 48.00 0.00 7.78 282.1
2 15 70.00 47.00 0.00 8.97 291.1
2 16 71.00 41.00 0.00 8.16 299.3
2 17 70.00 49.00 0.01 9.59 308.9
2 18 64.00 47.00 0.20 6.04 314.9
2 19 57.00 45.00 0.05 2.44 317.4
2 20 64.00 45.00 0.01 5.62 323.0
2 21 73.00 45.00 0.00 9.91 332.9
2 22 76.00 48.00 0.00 12.23 345.1
2 23 61.00 42.00 0.00 3.81 348.9
2 24 58.00 36.00 0.00 2.13 351.1
2 25 63.00 33.00 0.00 3.82 354.9
2 26 63.00 48.00 0.00 5.81 360.7
2 27 68.00 43.00 0.00 7.12 367.8
2 28 63.00 49.00 0.00 6.11 373.9
3 1 70.00 43.00 0.00 8.06 382.0
3 2 75.00 47.00 0.00 11.42 393.4
3 3 75.00 51.00 0.00 13.00 406.4
3 4 79.00 50.00 0.00 14.50 420.9
3 5 74.00 56.00 0.00 15.00 435.9
3 6 64.00 44.00 0.00 5.44 441.3
3 7 76.00 39.00 0.00 10.13 451.5
3 8 83.00 46.00 0.00 15.06 466.5
3 9 85.00 50.00 0.00 17.50 484.0
3 10 88.00 52.00 0.00 20.00 504.0
3 11 85.00 56.00 0.00 20.50 524.5
3 12 85.00 53.00 0.00 19.00 543.5
3 13 88.00 56.00 0.00 22.00 565.5
3 14 89.00 55.00 0.00 22.00 587.5
3 15 88.00 54.00 0.00 21.00 608.5
3 16 88.00 57.00 0.00 22.50 631.0
3 17 91.00 57.00 0.00 24.00 655.0
3 18 91.00 59.00 0.00 25.00 680.0
3 19 93.00 60.00 0.00 26.50 706.5
3 20 92.00 63.00 0.00 27.50 734.0
3 21 90.00 59.00 0.00 24.50 758.5
3 22 81.00 57.00 0.01 19.00 777.5
3 23 64.00 48.00 0.01 6.30 783.8
3 24 72.00 44.00 0.00 9.21 793.0
3 25 78.00 45.00 0.00 12.34 805.4
3 26 76.00 48.00 0.00 12.23 817.6
3 27 76.00 51.00 0.00 13.50 831.1
3 28 68.00 49.00 0.00 8.60 839.7
3 29 76.00 46.00 0.00 11.63 851.3
3 30 83.00 50.00 0.00 16.50 867.8
3 31 68.00 50.00 0.00 9.00 876.8
4 1 65.00 44.00 0.00 5.90 882.7
4 2 74.00 42.00 0.00 9.74 892.5
4 3 78.00 48.00 0.00 13.22 905.7 Place traps to monitor adult activity
4 4 80.00 49.30 0.00 14.69 920.4 Hx Hn
4 5 82.50 63.00 0.00 22.75 943.1 Hx
4 6 88.00 53.70 0.00 20.85 964.0 Vn
4 7 88.00 56.00 0.00 22.00 986.0 Approx. 2% adult emerg.
4 8 87.00 56.00 0.00 21.50 1007.5
4 9 76.00 53.00 0.00 14.50 1022.0
4 10 82.00 48.00 0.00 15.21 1037.2
4 11 87.00 48.00 0.00 17.69 1054.9 Approx. 10% dult emerge
4 12 88.00 55.00 0.00 21.50 1076.4
4 13 90.00 55.00 0.00 22.50 1098.9
4 14 88.00 56.00 0.00 22.00 1120.9
4 15 85.00 53.00 0.00 19.00 1139.9
4 16 89.00 53.00 0.00 21.00 1160.9
4 17 87.00 57.00 0.00 22.00 1182.9
4 18 89.00 60.00 0.00 24.50 1207.4
4 19 88.00 62.00 0.00 25.00 1232.4
4 20 86.00 56.00 0.00 21.00 1253.4
4 21 88.00 58.00 0.00 23.00 1276.4
4 22 93.00 56.00 0.00 24.50 1300.9
4 23 95.00 59.00 0.00 27.00 1327.9
4 24 89.00 61.00 0.00 25.00 1352.9
4 25 78.00 61.00 0.00 19.50 1372.4
4 26 83.00 53.00 0.00 18.00 1390.4
4 27 86.00 59.00 0.00 22.50 1412.9
4 28 76.00 60.00 0.00 18.00 1430.9
4 29 71.00 48.00 0.00 9.75 1440.6
4 30 81.00 50.00 0.00 15.50 1456.1
5 1 87.00 54.00 0.00 20.50 1476.6
5 2 90.00 56.00 0.00 23.00 1499.6
5 3 94.00 61.00 0.00 27.50 1527.1
5 4 99.00 63.00 0.00 31.00 1558.1
5 5 103.00 68.00 0.00 35.12 1593.3
5 6 93.00 69.00 0.00 31.00 1624.3 Approx. 50% or peak adult emerge
5 7 75.00 59.00 0.00 17.00 1641.3
5 8 78.00 50.00 0.05 14.00 1655.3
5 9 69.00 48.00 0.09 8.76 1664.0
5 10 73.00 48.00 0.00 10.74 1674.8
5 11 84.00 58.00 0.00 21.00 1695.8
5 12 96.00 62.00 0.00 29.00 1724.8
5 13 95.00 63.00 0.00 29.00 1753.8
5 14 89.00 63.00 0.00 26.00 1779.8
5 15 85.00 57.00 0.00 21.00 1800.8
5 16 71.00 54.00 0.00 12.50 1813.3
5 17 82.00 47.00 0.00 14.88 1828.2
5 18 80.00 56.00 0.00 18.00 1846.2
5 19 80.00 54.00 0.00 17.00 1863.2
5 20 89.00 65.00 0.00 27.00 1890.2
5 21 95.00 61.00 0.00 28.00 1918.2
5 22 96.00 65.00 0.00 30.50 1948.7
5 23 99.00 64.00 0.00 31.50 1980.2
5 24 101.00 66.00 0.00 33.43 2013.6
5 25 93.00 74.00 0.00 33.50 2047.1
5 26 92.00 69.00 0.00 30.50 2077.6
5 27 93.00 61.00 0.00 27.00 2104.6 Approx. 90% adult emerge
5 28 98.00 63.00 0.00 30.50 2135.1
5 29 100.00 67.00 0.00 33.50 2168.6 Approx. end of main period of adult activity
5 30 98.00 66.00 0.00 32.00 2200.6
5 31 98.00 67.00 0.00 32.50 2233.1
6 1 94.00 67.00 0.00 30.50 2263.6
6 2 96.00 64.00 0.00 30.00 2293.6
6 3 101.00 68.00 0.00 34.43 2328.0
6 4 102.00 73.00 0.00 37.28 2365.3
6 5 102.00 75.00 0.00 38.27 2403.6
6 6 102.00 73.00 0.00 37.28 2440.8
6 7 104.00 71.00 0.00 36.90 2477.7
6 8 100.00 75.00 0.00 37.50 2515.2
6 9 102.00 72.00 0.00 36.78 2552.0
6 10 101.00 72.00 0.00 36.42 2588.4
6 11 97.00 67.00 0.00 32.00 2620.4
6 12 93.00 67.00 0.00 30.00 2650.4
6 13 92.00 63.00 0.00 27.50 2677.9
6 14 101.00 61.00 0.00 30.93 2708.9
6 15 104.00 66.00 0.00 34.44 2743.3
6 16 104.00 66.00 0.00 34.44 2777.7
6 17 103.00 68.00 0.00 35.12 2812.9 Approx. last adults trapped
6 18 105.00 72.00 0.00 37.66 2850.5
6 19 113.00 75.00 0.00 40.65 2891.2
6 20 114.00 85.00 0.00 45.13 2936.3
6 21 112.00 84.00 0.00 44.50 2980.8
6 22 107.00 84.00 0.00 43.81 3024.6
6 23 107.00 80.00 0.00 41.94 3066.6
6 24 111.00 82.00 0.00 43.50 3110.1
6 25 109.00 87.00 0.00 45.44 3155.5
6 26 104.00 83.00 0.00 42.74 3198.2
6 27 105.00 77.00 0.00 40.09 3238.3
6 28 103.00 75.00 0.00 38.58 3276.9
6 29 104.00 74.00 0.00 38.37 3315.3
6 30 104.00 69.00 0.00 35.92 3351.2
Forecast using: 1910 D9240 PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES Lat32.4297 Long-111.0392 DD50
Japanese beetle model - APHIS dataLocation: 2017 D9240 DW9240 Marana AZ 1910 D9240 PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES | Date | DDs | Event |
| 4-3-17 | 906 | Place traps to monitor adult activity |
| 4-7-17 | 986 | Approx. 2% adult emerg. |
| 4-11-17 | 1055 | Approx. 10% dult emerge |
| 5-6-17 | 1624 | Approx. 50% or peak adult emerge |
| 5-27-17 | 2105 | Approx. 90% adult emerge |
| 5-29-17 | 2169 | Approx. end of main period of adult activity |
| 6-17-17 | 2813 | Approx. last adults trapped |
![degree-day graph of Japanese beetle [multiple crops] APHIS data](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?1012257)
