|
Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: spongy moth from Jan 1 [oak-maple]
Type: invasive insect
Model source/other links: Sheehan-simpl.
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 42 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 106 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 7 31
Model validation status: experimental
Region of known use: Midwest & PNW US
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 346 DDs after Jan 1: 2% egg hatch
2. 596 DDs after Jan 1: Peak 1st instar
3. 871 DDs after Jan 1: Peak 2nd instar
4. 1052 DDs after Jan 1: Peak 3rd instar
5. 1274 DDs after Jan 1: Peak 4th instar
6. 1637 DDs after Jan 1: 2% pupation
7. 1727 DDs after Jan 1: Peak 5th and 6th instar
8. 2068 DDs after Jan 1: 50% pupation
9. 2180 DDs after Jan 1: 2% adult emergence
10. 2539 DDs after Jan 1: 50% adult emergence
11. 2646 DDs after Jan 1: Final 6th instars present
12. 3250 DDs after Jan 1: 98% adult emergence
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2017 D9430 APRSWXNET DW9430 Albany OR Lat44.6450 Long:-123.1150 Elev:207
mn day max min precip DD42 CUMDD42 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 38.00 33.00 0.09 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 34.00 29.00 0.03 0.00 0.0
1 3 36.00 27.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 4 37.00 24.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 5 34.00 18.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 6 35.00 13.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 7 27.00 25.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 8 35.00 27.00 0.69 0.00 0.0
1 9 41.00 34.00 0.57 0.00 0.0
1 10 39.00 32.00 0.73 0.00 0.0
1 11 37.00 31.00 0.15 0.00 0.0
1 12 34.00 23.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 13 31.00 18.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 14 32.00 17.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 15 34.00 18.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 16 39.00 22.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 17 48.00 26.00 0.81 1.37 1.4
1 18 53.00 44.00 0.22 6.50 7.9
1 19 51.00 40.00 0.08 3.87 11.7
1 20 52.00 39.00 0.16 4.13 15.9
1 21 46.00 38.00 0.48 1.27 17.1
1 22 50.00 37.00 0.17 2.87 20.0
1 23 51.00 31.00 0.00 2.70 22.7
1 24 48.00 25.00 0.00 1.34 24.0
1 25 45.00 36.00 0.02 0.76 24.8
1 26 52.00 34.00 0.01 3.38 28.2
1 27 41.00 32.00 0.01 0.00 28.2
1 28 39.00 34.00 0.00 0.00 28.2
1 29 46.00 34.00 0.00 1.02 29.2
1 30 48.00 37.00 0.04 2.01 31.2
1 31 47.00 35.00 0.04 1.44 32.7
2 1 41.00 34.00 0.00 0.00 32.7
2 2 44.00 32.00 0.13 0.35 33.0
2 3 48.00 29.00 0.88 1.48 34.5
2 4 52.00 47.00 1.46 7.50 42.0
2 5 47.00 37.00 1.20 1.59 43.6
2 6 44.00 36.00 0.36 0.44 44.0
2 7 40.00 35.00 0.53 0.00 44.0
2 8 50.00 39.00 1.09 3.18 47.2
2 9 59.00 46.00 0.17 10.50 57.7
2 10 52.00 36.00 0.01 3.63 61.3
2 11 50.00 33.00 0.00 2.46 63.8
2 12 48.00 30.00 0.00 1.53 65.3
2 13 55.00 29.00 0.01 4.14 69.5
2 14 51.00 30.00 0.26 2.63 72.1
2 15 54.00 44.00 1.94 7.00 79.1
2 16 53.00 46.00 0.08 7.50 86.6
2 17 54.00 40.00 0.09 5.33 91.9
2 18 53.00 43.00 0.48 6.00 97.9
2 19 50.00 39.00 0.80 3.18 101.1
2 20 52.00 42.00 0.88 5.00 106.1
2 21 45.00 38.00 0.37 0.88 107.0
2 22 46.00 33.00 0.15 0.97 107.9
2 23 45.00 31.00 0.07 0.60 108.5
2 24 40.00 31.00 0.11 0.00 108.5
2 25 49.00 32.00 0.19 2.00 110.5
2 26 43.00 34.00 0.13 0.14 110.7
2 27 42.00 31.00 0.14 0.00 110.7
2 28 50.00 33.00 0.09 2.46 113.1
3 1 54.00 37.00 0.00 4.69 117.8
3 2 49.00 33.00 0.02 2.07 119.9
3 3 50.00 41.00 0.28 3.64 123.5
3 4 47.00 36.00 0.13 1.51 125.0
3 5 43.00 33.00 0.83 0.14 125.2
3 6 46.00 32.00 0.44 0.94 126.1
3 7 47.00 39.00 0.38 1.81 127.9
3 8 52.00 43.00 0.53 5.50 133.4
3 9 57.00 49.00 0.46 11.00 144.4
3 10 63.00 45.00 0.19 12.00 156.4
3 11 58.00 41.00 0.05 7.60 164.0
3 12 64.00 43.00 0.09 11.50 175.5
3 13 57.00 48.00 0.21 10.50 186.0
3 14 57.00 51.00 1.12 12.00 198.0
3 15 54.00 45.00 0.41 7.50 205.5
3 16 57.00 35.00 0.07 5.74 211.3
3 17 49.00 35.00 0.39 2.23 213.5
3 18 55.00 41.00 0.01 6.11 219.6
3 19 56.00 34.00 0.03 5.13 224.7
3 20 49.00 43.00 0.32 4.00 228.7
3 21 67.00 44.00 0.02 13.50 242.2
3 22 55.00 41.00 0.17 6.11 248.4
3 23 57.00 33.00 0.92 5.44 253.8
3 24 55.00 45.00 0.27 8.00 261.8
3 25 55.00 43.00 0.32 7.00 268.8
3 26 53.00 42.00 0.18 5.50 274.3
3 27 56.00 43.00 0.04 7.50 281.8
3 28 64.00 45.00 0.35 12.50 294.3
3 29 55.00 43.00 0.10 7.00 301.3
3 30 58.00 38.00 0.01 6.78 308.1
3 31 60.00 33.00 0.02 6.79 314.9
4 1 60.00 42.00 0.02 9.00 323.9
4 2 58.00 42.00 0.00 8.00 331.9
4 3 57.00 33.00 0.00 5.44 337.3
4 4 56.60 37.00 0.00 5.90 343.2 Hx Hn
4 5 56.80 48.00 0.00 10.40 353.6 Hx 2% egg hatch
4 6 67.00 47.10 0.44 15.05 368.7 Vn
4 7 54.00 42.00 0.49 6.00 374.7
4 8 54.00 39.00 0.01 5.08 379.7
4 9 58.00 35.00 0.20 6.19 385.9
4 10 59.00 40.00 0.03 7.78 393.7
4 11 52.00 39.00 0.28 4.13 397.8
4 12 62.00 44.00 0.07 11.00 408.8
4 13 55.00 42.00 0.04 6.50 415.3
4 14 57.00 38.00 0.02 6.30 421.6
4 15 61.00 33.00 0.01 7.24 428.9
4 16 62.00 41.00 0.41 9.59 438.5
4 17 59.00 44.00 0.51 9.50 448.0
4 18 66.00 46.00 0.02 14.00 462.0
4 19 60.00 43.00 0.30 9.50 471.5
4 20 62.00 41.00 0.07 9.59 481.1
4 21 69.00 36.00 0.07 11.61 492.7
4 22 64.00 47.00 0.07 13.50 506.2
4 23 57.00 46.00 0.34 9.50 515.7
4 24 57.00 45.00 0.14 9.00 524.7
4 25 53.00 44.00 0.56 6.50 531.2
4 26 58.00 42.00 0.05 8.00 539.2
4 27 57.00 38.00 0.01 6.30 545.5
4 28 61.00 34.00 0.00 7.41 552.9
4 29 67.00 37.00 0.11 10.88 563.8
4 30 61.00 44.00 0.02 10.50 574.3
5 1 57.00 37.00 0.00 6.09 580.3
5 2 68.00 51.00 0.00 17.50 597.8 Peak 1st instar
5 3 83.00 52.00 0.00 25.50 623.3
5 4 88.00 55.00 0.13 29.50 652.8
5 5 59.00 43.00 0.01 9.00 661.8
5 6 62.00 37.00 0.00 8.47 670.3
5 7 67.00 38.00 0.00 11.14 681.5
5 8 74.00 39.00 0.00 14.88 696.3
5 9 78.00 41.00 0.00 17.57 713.9
5 10 76.00 44.00 0.28 18.00 731.9
5 11 58.00 48.00 0.07 11.00 742.9
5 12 55.00 43.00 0.24 7.00 749.9
5 13 55.00 41.00 0.33 6.11 756.0
5 14 63.00 44.00 0.04 11.50 767.5
5 15 63.00 41.00 0.35 10.09 777.6
5 16 59.00 47.00 0.01 11.00 788.6
5 17 64.00 45.00 0.01 12.50 801.1
5 18 75.00 39.00 0.00 15.37 816.5
5 19 79.00 48.00 0.00 21.50 838.0
5 20 71.00 49.00 0.00 18.00 856.0
5 21 83.00 52.00 0.00 25.50 881.5 Peak 2nd instar
5 22 92.00 59.00 0.00 33.50 915.0
5 23 89.00 56.00 0.00 30.50 945.5
5 24 68.00 45.00 0.00 14.50 960.0
5 25 74.00 46.00 0.00 18.00 978.0
5 26 85.00 48.00 0.00 24.50 1002.5
5 27 89.00 51.00 0.00 28.00 1030.5
5 28 81.00 50.00 0.00 23.50 1054.0 Peak 3rd instar
5 29 73.00 50.00 0.01 19.50 1073.5
5 30 64.00 52.00 0.01 16.00 1089.5
5 31 77.00 49.00 0.01 21.00 1110.5
6 1 71.00 53.00 0.01 20.00 1130.5
6 2 78.00 51.00 0.00 22.50 1153.0
6 3 66.00 54.00 0.00 18.00 1171.0
6 4 70.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 1189.0
6 5 78.00 47.00 0.00 20.50 1209.5
6 6 84.00 48.00 0.00 24.00 1233.5
6 7 77.00 49.00 0.43 21.00 1254.5
6 8 64.00 52.00 0.06 16.00 1270.5
6 9 61.00 48.00 0.28 12.50 1283.0 Peak 4th instar
6 10 60.00 48.00 0.12 12.00 1295.0
6 11 69.00 47.00 0.01 16.00 1311.0
6 12 63.00 51.00 0.02 15.00 1326.0
6 13 64.00 50.00 0.02 15.00 1341.0
6 14 70.00 49.00 0.16 17.50 1358.5
6 15 63.00 53.00 0.12 16.00 1374.5
6 16 63.00 56.00 0.01 17.50 1392.0
6 17 78.00 51.00 0.00 22.50 1414.5
6 18 84.00 55.00 0.00 27.50 1442.0
6 19 89.00 61.00 0.00 33.00 1475.0
6 20 82.00 55.00 0.00 26.50 1501.5
6 21 78.00 50.00 0.00 22.00 1523.5
6 22 85.00 50.00 0.00 25.50 1549.0
6 23 93.00 58.00 0.00 33.50 1582.5
6 24 101.00 62.00 0.00 39.50 1622.0
6 25 100.00 57.00 0.00 36.50 1658.5 2% pupation
6 26 78.00 56.00 0.00 25.00 1683.5
6 27 78.00 55.00 0.00 24.50 1708.0
6 28 76.00 48.00 0.00 20.00 1728.0 Peak 5th and 6th instar
6 29 82.00 51.00 0.00 24.50 1752.5
6 30 84.00 53.00 0.00 26.50 1779.0
7 1 77.00 54.00 0.00 23.50 1802.5
7 2 86.00 51.00 0.00 26.50 1829.0
7 3 79.00 55.00 0.00 25.00 1854.0
7 4 86.00 55.00 0.00 28.50 1882.5
7 5 92.00 57.00 0.00 32.50 1915.0
7 6 91.00 50.00 0.00 28.50 1943.5
7 7 76.00 52.00 0.00 22.00 1965.5
7 8 88.00 53.00 0.00 28.50 1994.0
7 9 87.00 52.00 0.00 27.50 2021.5
7 10 82.00 57.00 0.00 27.50 2049.0
7 11 82.00 51.00 0.00 24.50 2073.5 50% pupation
7 12 85.00 50.00 0.00 25.50 2099.0
7 13 78.00 52.00 0.00 23.00 2122.0
7 14 88.00 51.00 0.00 27.50 2149.5
7 15 84.00 50.00 0.00 25.00 2174.5
7 16 77.00 52.00 0.00 22.50 2197.0 2% adult emergence
7 17 83.00 52.00 0.00 25.50 2222.5
7 18 87.00 50.00 0.00 26.50 2249.0
7 19 82.00 49.00 0.00 23.50 2272.5
7 20 77.00 53.00 0.00 23.00 2295.5
7 21 85.00 49.00 0.00 25.00 2320.5
7 22 92.00 56.00 0.00 32.00 2352.5
7 23 88.00 63.00 0.00 33.50 2386.0
7 24 90.00 55.00 0.00 30.50 2416.5
7 25 92.00 53.00 0.00 30.50 2447.0
7 26 90.00 56.00 0.00 31.00 2478.0
7 27 81.00 54.00 0.00 25.50 2503.5
7 28 85.00 55.00 0.00 28.00 2531.5
7 29 88.00 50.00 0.00 27.00 2558.5 50% adult emergence
7 30 91.00 60.00 0.00 33.50 2592.0
7 31 95.00 59.00 0.00 35.00 2627.0
Forecast using: 1910 D9430 PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES Lat44.6450 Long-123.1150 DD50
spongy moth from Jan 1 model - Sheehan-simpl.Location: 2017 D9430 DW9430 Albany OR 1910 D9430 PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES Date | DDs | Event |
4-5-17 | 354 | 2% egg hatch |
5-2-17 | 598 | Peak 1st instar |
5-21-17 | 881 | Peak 2nd instar |
5-28-17 | 1054 | Peak 3rd instar |
6-9-17 | 1283 | Peak 4th instar |
6-25-17 | 1658 | 2% pupation |
6-28-17 | 1728 | Peak 5th and 6th instar |
7-11-17 | 2073 | 50% pupation |
7-16-17 | 2197 | 2% adult emergence |
7-29-17 | 2558 | 50% adult emergence |