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Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: spongy moth larvae & pupae [mixed oak]
Type: invasive insect
Model source/other links: Carter et al 1992
Calculation method: double sine
Lower threshold: 45.8 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 106 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: Use date of egg hatch (monitor or use egg hatch model)
Starting/BIOFIX date: 3 15
Ending date: 7 0
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: East Coast US
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 295 DDs after egg hatch: 50% 1st instar
2. 356 DDs after egg hatch: Peak 2nd instar
3. 529 DDs after egg hatch: Peak 3rd instar
4. 727 DDs after egg hatch: Peak 4th instar
5. 854 DDs after egg hatch: 50% 5th & 6th instar
6. 972 DDs after egg hatch: 1st pupae
7. 1057 DDs after egg hatch: 50% pupation
8. 1186 DDs after egg hatch: End (last) pupation
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2017 KMOB METAR Mobile Reg Apt AL Lat:30.6881 Long:-88.2456 Elev:217
mn day max min precip DD45 CUMDD45 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
3 15 55.90 33.80 0.00 2.69 2.7 * START *
3 16 64.00 33.80 0.00 4.76 7.4
3 17 72.00 39.00 0.00 9.14 16.6
3 18 78.80 51.80 0.00 17.80 34.4
3 19 82.90 48.20 0.00 18.73 53.1
3 20 84.00 53.10 0.00 22.48 75.6
3 21 84.20 63.00 0.00 27.75 103.3
3 22 88.00 60.80 0.00 27.65 131.0
3 23 81.00 57.20 0.00 25.05 156.0
3 24 75.90 66.00 0.00 26.43 182.5
3 25 75.90 60.10 0.92 22.20 204.7
3 26 81.00 60.10 0.00 23.48 228.1
3 27 80.10 68.00 0.00 28.48 256.6
3 28 82.40 64.00 0.00 26.83 283.4
3 29 82.40 64.00 0.00 27.40 310.8 50% 1st instar
3 30 79.00 60.10 0.54 24.60 335.4
3 31 82.40 57.00 0.00 23.05 358.5 Peak 2nd instar
4 1 86.00 53.60 0.00 23.10 381.6
4 2 82.40 59.00 0.01 25.80 407.4
4 3 78.80 59.00 2.43 24.00 431.4
4 4 77.30 59.60 0.00 23.03 454.4 Hx Hn
4 5 86.00 60.10 0.00 25.08 479.5
4 6 71.60 48.90 0.00 18.05 497.5
4 7 72.00 42.80 0.00 11.91 509.5
4 8 75.20 41.00 0.00 12.29 521.7
4 9 75.90 48.00 0.00 15.98 537.7 Peak 3rd instar
4 10 79.00 51.10 0.00 18.48 556.2
4 11 81.00 59.00 0.00 23.70 579.9
4 12 80.60 60.80 0.19 25.00 604.9
4 13 84.20 57.20 0.00 24.00 628.9
4 14 82.40 57.00 0.00 24.35 653.2
4 15 82.40 59.00 0.00 24.90 678.1
4 16 84.00 62.10 0.00 26.85 705.0
4 17 82.00 60.80 0.00 26.10 731.1 Peak 4th instar
4 18 84.00 60.10 0.00 25.75 756.8
4 19 86.00 57.20 0.00 25.30 782.1
4 20 84.90 63.00 0.00 28.43 810.6
4 21 84.20 60.10 0.00 26.53 837.1
4 22 84.20 62.10 0.40 27.35 864.4 50% 5th & 6th instar
4 23 72.00 57.00 3.99 21.75 886.2
4 24 75.90 51.80 0.00 17.08 903.3
4 25 82.00 51.80 0.00 19.58 922.8
4 26 81.00 59.00 0.05 24.45 947.3
4 27 88.00 62.60 0.22 27.75 975.0 1st pupae
4 28 84.90 75.00 0.00 34.93 1010.0
4 29 84.20 75.00 0.00 33.98 1043.9
4 30 80.60 68.00 2.69 29.40 1073.3 50% pupation
5 1 82.90 57.90 3.50 24.03 1097.4
5 2 84.90 53.60 0.00 22.95 1120.3
5 3 82.90 59.00 2.54 25.65 1146.0
5 4 75.20 51.10 0.16 19.28 1165.2
5 5 72.00 48.00 0.00 15.00 1180.2
5 6 79.00 44.10 0.00 14.17 1194.4 End (last) pupation
5 7 84.20 53.60 0.00 21.80 1216.2
5 8 87.80 57.00 0.00 25.70 1241.9
5 9 87.80 59.00 0.00 27.60 1269.5
5 10 87.80 57.00 0.00 26.60 1296.1
5 11 84.20 60.80 0.00 27.60 1323.7
5 12 81.00 64.00 0.99 27.50 1351.2
5 13 82.40 64.90 0.00 27.50 1378.7
5 14 88.00 62.10 0.00 27.85 1406.6
5 15 89.60 62.60 0.00 29.90 1436.5
5 16 89.60 64.00 0.00 31.00 1467.5
5 17 86.00 66.20 0.00 31.20 1498.7
5 18 88.00 72.00 0.01 33.70 1532.4
5 19 89.10 73.00 0.00 34.98 1567.3
5 20 82.90 69.80 4.37 32.10 1599.4
5 21 75.90 66.90 0.08 27.35 1626.8
5 22 81.00 64.40 1.12 25.63 1652.4
5 23 82.90 69.80 0.70 30.08 1682.5
5 24 75.90 60.10 0.00 23.95 1706.4
5 25 81.00 53.60 0.00 20.23 1726.7
5 26 84.20 64.40 0.00 27.70 1754.4
5 27 88.00 69.80 0.00 32.15 1786.5
5 28 87.80 73.90 0.03 35.10 1821.6
5 29 88.00 71.60 0.20 33.95 1855.6
5 30 82.90 69.10 0.05 31.48 1887.0
5 31 82.90 71.10 0.31 31.20 1918.2
6 1 84.20 69.80 0.10 30.88 1949.1
6 2 86.00 73.00 0.06 33.25 1982.4
6 3 82.90 73.00 0.63 32.93 2015.3
6 4 86.00 73.00 0.58 32.93 2048.2
6 5 86.00 71.60 0.01 33.00 2081.2
6 6 84.20 71.10 1.15 32.30 2113.5
6 7 88.00 71.10 0.27 32.80 2146.3
6 8 86.00 64.90 0.00 30.15 2176.5
6 9 87.80 62.10 0.00 28.70 2205.2
6 10 88.00 64.40 0.00 30.35 2235.5
6 11 88.00 69.80 0.00 33.10 2268.6
6 12 87.80 75.00 0.48 35.65 2304.3
6 13 84.20 73.00 0.31 33.70 2338.0
6 14 84.90 71.60 0.01 32.28 2370.2
6 15 89.60 69.80 0.74 32.72 2403.0
6 16 91.40 68.00 0.21 33.45 2436.4
6 17 79.00 68.00 0.61 30.80 2467.2
6 18 88.00 71.60 0.09 31.75 2499.0
6 19 90.00 71.10 0.02 34.25 2533.2
6 20 75.90 69.80 4.12 30.58 2563.8
6 21 80.60 71.10 1.34 28.88 2592.7
6 22 84.20 75.20 1.35 33.00 2625.7
6 23 87.80 78.80 0.08 36.60 2662.3
6 24 90.00 75.00 0.06 36.15 2698.4
6 25 91.40 72.00 0.00 35.55 2734.0
6 26 87.80 68.00 0.00 33.00 2767.0
6 27 87.80 69.80 0.00 33.00 2800.0
6 28 79.00 72.00 0.65 31.90 2831.9
6 29 78.80 73.40 1.76 30.35 2862.2
6 30 89.60 75.00 0.00 33.80 2896.0
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KMOB PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
spongy moth larvae & pupae model - Carter et al 1992Location: 2017 KMOB Mobile Reg Apt Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 3-29-17 | 311 | 50% 1st instar |
| 3-31-17 | 358 | Peak 2nd instar |
| 4-9-17 | 538 | Peak 3rd instar |
| 4-17-17 | 731 | Peak 4th instar |
| 4-22-17 | 864 | 50% 5th & 6th instar |
| 4-27-17 | 975 | 1st pupae |
| 4-30-17 | 1073 | 50% pupation |
| 5-6-17 | 1194 | End (last) pupation |
![degree-day graph of spongy moth larvae & pupae [mixed oak] Carter et al 1992](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?3630137)
