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Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: spongy moth egg hatch [mixed oak]
Type: invasive insect
Model source/other links: Russo et al 1993
Calculation method: double sine
Lower threshold: 37.4 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 104 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 7 0
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: East Coast US
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 571 DDs after Jan 1: Egg mass eclosion (hatch)
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2017 AT531 APRSWXNET Opelika KI4TXI AL Lat32.4486 Long:-85.3653 Elev:492
mn day max min precip DD37 CUMDD37 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 65.00 47.00 2.82 9.30 9.3 * START *
1 2 67.00 62.00 3.19 26.60 35.9
1 3 68.00 56.00 0.00 24.35 60.3
1 4 62.00 45.00 0.00 17.60 77.9
1 5 62.00 34.00 0.10 11.11 89.0
1 6 52.00 36.00 1.12 9.26 98.2
1 7 39.00 26.00 0.00 2.61 100.8
1 8 44.00 20.00 0.00 0.86 101.7
1 9 49.90 23.20 0.00 2.73 104.4 Vx Vn
1 10 66.00 34.00 0.00 9.15 113.6
1 11 75.00 55.00 0.00 25.35 138.9
1 12 78.00 50.00 0.00 25.85 164.8
1 13 84.00 49.00 0.00 27.60 192.4
1 14 81.00 48.00 0.00 27.85 220.2
1 15 78.00 48.00 0.00 26.35 246.6
1 16 78.00 53.00 0.00 28.10 274.7
1 17 80.00 52.00 0.00 28.10 302.8
1 18 78.00 58.00 0.00 31.10 333.9
1 19 78.00 52.00 0.09 27.60 361.5
1 20 76.00 62.00 0.74 32.10 393.6
1 21 69.00 60.00 0.80 28.85 422.4
1 22 68.00 51.00 0.10 22.35 444.8
1 23 67.00 51.00 0.02 21.85 466.6
1 24 67.00 43.00 0.00 17.60 484.2
1 25 78.00 38.00 0.09 17.85 502.1
1 26 69.00 43.00 0.00 20.85 522.9
1 27 52.00 33.00 0.00 10.14 533.1
1 28 48.00 34.00 0.00 5.28 538.3
1 29 60.00 29.00 0.00 6.30 544.6
1 30 64.00 31.00 0.00 10.36 555.0
1 31 76.00 34.00 0.00 15.05 570.1
2 1 75.00 43.00 0.00 21.85 591.9 Egg mass eclosion (hatch)
2 2 76.00 47.00 0.00 23.85 615.8
2 3 59.00 42.00 0.00 17.35 633.1
2 4 63.00 34.00 0.00 10.62 643.7
2 5 54.00 38.00 0.07 10.85 654.6
2 6 70.00 52.00 0.00 19.60 674.2
2 7 69.00 53.00 0.83 23.85 698.0
2 8 76.00 54.00 0.01 25.85 723.9
2 9 70.00 37.00 0.01 17.62 741.5
2 10 70.00 32.00 0.00 14.48 756.0
2 11 81.00 38.00 0.00 19.35 775.3
2 12 78.00 62.00 0.00 33.35 808.7
2 13 78.00 46.00 0.00 24.60 833.3
2 14 79.00 39.00 0.07 21.35 854.6
2 15 66.00 48.00 0.07 22.85 877.5
2 16 66.00 35.00 0.00 13.39 890.9
2 17 74.00 32.00 0.03 14.48 905.3
2 18 68.00 49.00 0.01 22.60 927.9
2 19 80.00 50.00 0.00 24.60 952.5
2 20 81.00 46.00 0.00 25.85 978.4
2 21 69.00 55.00 1.65 27.60 1006.0
2 22 75.00 62.00 0.01 29.60 1035.6
2 23 81.00 58.00 0.00 30.60 1066.2
2 24 85.00 54.00 0.00 31.10 1097.3
2 25 74.00 47.00 0.00 25.85 1123.1
2 26 72.00 31.00 0.00 15.68 1138.8
2 27 69.00 46.00 0.45 20.85 1159.7
2 28 73.00 58.00 0.01 27.10 1186.8
3 1 85.00 61.00 0.21 32.60 1219.4
3 2 66.00 44.00 0.01 22.35 1241.7
3 3 70.00 32.00 0.00 13.50 1255.2
3 4 72.00 35.00 0.00 15.86 1271.1
3 5 71.00 38.00 0.00 17.35 1288.4
3 6 79.00 56.00 0.00 28.10 1316.5
3 7 77.00 55.00 0.43 29.10 1345.6
3 8 78.00 46.00 0.01 24.35 1370.0
3 9 82.00 39.00 0.05 22.10 1392.1
3 10 79.00 54.00 0.00 29.85 1421.9
3 11 75.00 41.00 0.11 21.60 1443.5
3 12 51.00 43.00 0.11 15.60 1459.1
3 13 44.80 41.60 0.00 7.35 1466.5 Vx Vn
3 14 52.00 39.40 0.00 6.50 1473.0 Vn
3 15 53.00 31.00 0.00 5.88 1478.9
3 16 62.00 24.00 0.00 7.15 1486.0
3 17 75.00 34.00 0.00 14.31 1500.3
3 18 70.00 54.00 0.00 25.85 1526.2
3 19 78.00 39.00 0.00 19.10 1545.3
3 20 85.00 41.00 0.00 23.85 1569.1
3 21 91.00 56.00 0.00 34.60 1603.7
3 22 87.00 55.00 0.00 34.60 1638.3
3 23 77.00 56.00 0.00 31.60 1669.9
3 24 84.00 60.00 0.00 32.85 1702.8
3 25 84.00 59.00 0.26 34.10 1736.9
3 26 84.00 59.00 0.04 34.10 1771.0
3 27 86.00 60.00 0.00 35.10 1806.1
3 28 87.00 66.00 0.00 38.85 1844.9
3 29 89.00 60.00 0.00 36.60 1881.5
3 30 80.60 56.00 0.03 33.00 1914.5 Vx
3 31 82.00 55.00 0.02 30.75 1945.3
4 1 90.00 50.00 0.00 30.60 1975.9
4 2 93.00 51.00 0.00 33.85 2009.7
4 3 72.00 63.00 0.00 35.35 2045.1
4 4 76.80 52.50 0.00 26.05 2071.1 Hx Hn
4 5 76.00 61.00 0.14 31.30 2102.4
4 6 70.00 50.00 0.00 24.10 2126.5 Vn
4 7 74.00 45.00 0.00 21.10 2147.6
4 8 80.00 38.00 0.00 20.10 2167.7
4 9 86.00 41.00 0.00 24.60 2192.3
4 10 87.00 46.00 0.00 28.85 2221.2
4 11 86.00 53.00 0.00 32.35 2253.5
4 12 86.00 55.00 0.00 33.10 2286.6
4 13 90.00 54.00 0.00 33.60 2320.2
4 14 89.00 55.00 0.00 34.85 2355.1
4 15 87.00 60.00 0.00 36.60 2391.7
4 16 88.00 60.00 0.00 36.35 2428.0
4 17 90.00 61.00 0.00 37.60 2465.6
4 18 91.00 56.00 0.00 35.85 2501.5
4 19 89.00 64.00 0.00 39.60 2541.1
4 20 94.00 61.00 0.00 38.85 2579.9
4 21 95.00 61.00 0.00 40.35 2620.3
4 22 89.00 57.00 0.16 37.10 2657.4
4 23 73.00 57.00 0.14 31.60 2689.0
4 24 71.00 55.00 0.00 26.10 2715.1
4 25 87.00 54.00 0.00 29.10 2744.2
4 26 86.00 52.00 1.31 31.85 2776.0
4 27 82.00 68.00 0.45 38.60 2814.6
4 28 90.00 71.00 0.00 41.10 2855.7
4 29 90.00 68.00 0.00 41.60 2897.3
4 30 89.00 69.00 0.33 41.85 2939.2
5 1 79.00 55.00 0.13 32.10 2971.3
5 2 88.00 49.00 0.00 28.85 3000.1
5 3 90.00 53.00 0.21 33.60 3033.7
5 4 72.00 55.00 0.13 30.60 3064.3
5 5 57.00 51.00 0.01 20.35 3084.7
5 6 79.00 48.00 0.00 20.60 3105.3
5 7 83.00 50.00 0.00 28.10 3133.4
5 8 88.00 47.00 0.00 28.85 3162.2
5 9 93.00 54.00 0.00 34.85 3197.1
5 10 94.00 60.00 0.00 39.35 3236.4
5 11 92.00 61.00 0.00 39.60 3276.0
5 12 89.00 65.00 0.99 40.35 3316.4
5 13 86.00 64.00 0.06 38.35 3354.7
5 14 91.00 60.00 0.00 36.85 3391.6
5 15 94.00 59.00 0.00 38.35 3429.9
5 16 97.00 60.00 0.00 40.35 3470.3
5 17 94.00 63.00 0.00 41.85 3512.1
5 18 93.00 71.00 0.00 44.85 3557.0
5 19 91.40 72.00 0.00 44.70 3601.7 Px
5 20 87.80 69.40 0.00 42.10 3643.8 Px Pn
5 21 88.00 67.10 0.15 40.10 3683.9 Pn
5 22 84.00 68.00 2.31 39.60 3723.5
5 23 73.00 69.00 0.11 36.35 3759.8
5 24 83.00 63.00 0.01 33.10 3792.9
5 25 80.00 57.00 0.01 31.85 3824.8
5 26 91.00 52.00 0.00 31.35 3856.1
5 27 89.00 60.00 0.00 37.60 3893.7
5 28 94.00 70.00 0.00 43.35 3937.1
5 29 88.00 69.00 0.04 42.60 3979.7
5 30 87.00 71.00 0.03 41.85 4021.5
5 31 86.00 70.00 0.03 40.85 4062.4
6 1 88.00 68.00 0.20 40.10 4102.5
6 2 92.00 69.00 0.00 42.10 4144.6
6 3 92.00 68.00 0.00 42.60 4187.2
6 4 92.00 73.00 0.40 45.10 4232.3
6 5 85.00 73.00 0.28 43.35 4275.6
6 6 83.00 72.00 0.10 40.60 4316.2
6 7 85.00 69.00 0.00 39.10 4355.3
6 8 88.00 64.00 0.00 37.85 4393.2
6 9 91.00 62.00 0.00 38.35 4431.5
6 10 93.00 64.00 0.00 40.60 4472.1
6 11 96.00 70.00 0.00 44.85 4517.0
6 12 89.00 70.60 0.16 44.15 4561.1 Pn
6 13 91.00 70.00 0.01 42.60 4603.7
6 14 93.00 71.00 0.00 44.10 4647.8
6 15 97.00 68.00 0.50 44.10 4691.9
6 16 91.00 68.00 0.00 43.60 4735.5
6 17 92.00 70.00 0.10 43.35 4778.9
6 18 93.00 72.00 0.01 44.85 4823.7
6 19 93.00 71.00 0.05 44.60 4868.3
6 20 79.00 74.00 0.40 42.60 4910.9
6 21 79.00 73.00 0.46 38.60 4949.5
6 22 85.00 74.00 0.03 40.60 4990.1
6 23 94.00 73.00 0.05 43.85 5034.0
6 24 88.00 74.00 1.53 45.10 5079.1
6 25 87.00 67.00 0.00 39.85 5118.9
6 26 91.00 64.00 0.00 39.10 5158.0
6 27 89.00 66.00 0.00 40.60 5198.6
6 28 94.00 66.00 0.04 41.35 5240.0
6 29 85.00 74.00 0.96 44.35 5284.3
6 30 85.00 73.00 0.44 41.60 5325.9
Forecast using: 1910 AT531 PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES Lat32.4486 Long-85.3653 DD50
spongy moth egg hatch model - Russo et al 1993Location: 2017 AT531 Opelika KI4TXI AL 1910 AT531 PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES Date | DDs | Event |
2-1-17 | 592 | Egg mass eclosion (hatch) |