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insect model of Aliniazee 1983 |
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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program: Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: filbertworm [hazelnut] Type: insect Model source/other links: Aliniazee 1983 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 110 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date Starting/BIOFIX date: 4 1 Ending date: 7 0 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 580 DDs after biofix: Earliest first moth emergence 2. 610 DDs after biofix: Average first moth emergence 3. 815 DDs after biofix: First eggs laid 4. 955 DDs after biofix: First eggs hatch 5. 1022 DDs after biofix: First larvae found in nuts 6. 1158 DDs after biofix: Earliest peak moth emergence 7. 1188 DDs after biofix: Average peak moth emergence 8. 1217 DDs after biofix: Latest peak moth emergence 9. 1393 DDs after biofix: Approximate peak egg laying 10. 1533 DDs after biofix: Approximate peak egg hatch ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2017 KDEQ METAR De Queen J Lynn Helms AR Lat:34.0467 Long:-94.3992 Elev:354 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 4 1 78.80 55.40 0.00 17.10 17.1 * START * 4 2 64.90 57.00 0.37 10.95 28.0 4 3 75.20 51.80 0.03 13.50 41.5 4 4 73.80 47.00 0.00 10.83 52.4 Hx Hn 4 5 64.90 42.80 0.00 5.66 58.0 4 6 71.60 37.40 0.00 7.88 65.9 4 7 72.00 37.00 0.00 8.01 73.9 4 8 80.60 44.10 0.00 13.37 87.3 4 9 82.40 60.80 0.00 21.60 108.9 4 10 71.60 62.10 4.87 16.85 125.7 4 11 75.00 55.40 0.00 15.20 140.9 4 12 75.90 55.00 0.00 15.45 156.4 4 13 81.00 55.40 0.00 18.20 174.6 4 14 81.00 55.40 0.00 18.20 192.8 4 15 82.40 57.00 0.00 19.70 212.5 4 16 81.00 57.20 0.10 19.10 231.6 4 17 71.60 55.40 0.33 13.50 245.1 4 18 81.00 55.00 0.00 18.00 263.1 4 19 81.00 57.00 0.00 19.00 282.1 4 20 81.00 60.10 0.00 20.55 302.6 4 21 81.00 62.10 0.37 21.55 324.2 4 22 68.00 50.00 0.00 9.00 333.2 4 23 73.40 44.10 0.00 9.90 343.1 4 24 77.00 42.10 0.00 11.18 354.3 4 25 81.00 51.10 0.00 16.05 370.3 4 26 73.00 46.00 1.55 10.16 380.5 4 27 71.10 42.80 0.00 8.53 389.0 4 28 82.90 57.00 0.02 19.95 409.0 4 29 82.40 59.00 0.17 20.70 429.7 4 30 66.90 48.20 0.02 7.79 437.5 5 1 75.90 46.00 0.00 11.58 449.0 5 2 82.90 46.00 0.00 15.01 464.1 5 3 69.10 51.80 0.41 10.45 474.5 5 4 70.00 48.20 0.00 9.32 483.8 5 5 75.20 46.00 0.00 11.24 495.1 5 6 81.00 42.80 0.00 13.25 508.3 5 7 84.90 50.00 0.00 17.45 525.8 5 8 82.90 53.60 0.00 18.25 544.0 5 9 81.00 53.60 0.00 17.30 561.3 5 10 81.00 60.10 0.00 20.55 581.9 Earliest first moth emergence 5 11 80.60 62.60 8.18 21.60 603.5 5 12 77.00 60.10 0.02 18.55 622.0 Average first moth emergence 5 13 80.60 53.10 0.00 16.85 638.9 5 14 82.90 51.10 0.00 17.00 655.9 5 15 84.90 55.40 0.00 20.15 676.0 5 16 84.90 57.00 0.00 20.95 697.0 5 17 84.90 68.00 0.01 26.45 723.4 5 18 88.00 73.00 0.00 30.50 753.9 5 19 88.00 71.10 0.49 29.55 783.5 5 20 80.60 60.80 0.03 20.70 804.2 5 21 81.00 57.00 0.00 19.00 823.2 First eggs laid 5 22 78.80 59.00 0.00 18.90 842.1 5 23 77.00 55.00 0.01 16.00 858.1 5 24 71.60 48.00 0.00 10.05 868.1 5 25 84.90 46.40 0.00 16.12 884.2 5 26 89.60 66.00 0.00 27.80 912.0 5 27 90.00 71.60 0.62 30.80 942.8 5 28 81.00 66.00 0.96 23.50 966.3 First eggs hatch 5 29 86.00 60.80 0.00 23.40 989.7 5 30 88.00 57.20 0.00 22.60 1012.3 5 31 88.00 62.60 0.00 25.30 1037.6 First larvae found in nuts 6 1 75.90 66.00 0.55 20.95 1058.6 6 2 82.90 66.20 0.00 24.55 1083.1 6 3 87.80 69.10 0.01 28.45 1111.6 6 4 82.40 69.80 0.62 26.10 1137.7 6 5 79.00 66.20 0.02 22.60 1160.3 Earliest peak moth emergence 6 6 90.00 64.40 0.00 27.20 1187.5 6 7 86.00 60.10 0.00 23.05 1210.5 Average peak moth emergence 6 8 84.90 55.40 0.00 20.15 1230.7 Latest peak moth emergence 6 9 84.20 57.20 0.00 20.70 1251.4 6 10 86.00 60.80 0.00 23.40 1274.8 6 11 89.60 64.40 0.00 27.00 1301.8 6 12 91.00 73.40 0.00 32.20 1334.0 6 13 90.00 73.00 0.00 31.50 1365.5 6 14 91.40 73.00 0.00 32.20 1397.7 Approximate peak egg laying 6 15 91.40 71.60 0.00 31.50 1429.2 6 16 93.90 71.10 0.00 32.50 1461.7 6 17 87.80 71.60 0.00 29.70 1491.4 6 18 84.90 71.60 0.31 28.25 1519.6 6 19 84.90 68.00 0.69 26.45 1546.1 Approximate peak egg hatch 6 20 91.40 66.00 0.00 28.70 1574.8 6 21 89.60 64.00 0.00 26.80 1601.6 6 22 88.00 73.00 0.05 30.50 1632.1 6 23 95.00 71.60 0.09 33.30 1665.4 6 24 82.90 68.00 0.00 25.45 1690.8 6 25 86.00 62.60 0.00 24.30 1715.1 6 26 82.90 64.40 0.00 23.65 1738.8 6 27 88.00 64.00 0.00 26.00 1764.8 6 28 90.00 66.90 0.00 28.45 1793.2 6 29 89.60 69.10 0.00 29.35 1822.6 6 30 89.60 71.10 0.13 30.35 1852.9 Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KDEQ PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021