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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: cereal leaf beetle [grasses]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Fulton et al 1975, OSU OIPMC model analysis
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 48 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 100 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 7 0
Model validation status: requires local validation
Region of known use: used in USA
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 90 DDs after Jan 1: OW gen. ca. 1st adult emerge
2. 144 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying
3. 270 DDs after Jan 1: 50%/peak egg laying
4. 297 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg hatch
5. 324 DDs after Jan 1: Early/10% larvae
6. 432 DDs after Jan 1: 50%/peak egg hatch
7. 612 DDs after Jan 1: 90% egg laying
8. 648 DDs after Jan 1: Peak larvae
9. 756 DDs after Jan 1: End (90%) egg hatch
10. 900 DDs after Jan 1: 90% larvae/end larvae
11. 936 DDs after Jan 1: End OW adults
12. 990 DDs after Jan 1: 1st summer adult emerge
13. 1314 DDs after Jan 1: 50% summer adult emerge
14. 1530 DDs after Jan 1: 90% summer adult emerge
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2017 KTUS METAR Tucson Int Apt AZ Lat:32.1314 Long:-110.9564 Elev:2546
mn day max min precip DD48 CUMDD48 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 55.90 42.80 0.22 2.80 2.8 * START *
1 2 57.20 37.00 0.00 2.78 5.6
1 3 63.00 37.40 0.00 5.23 10.8
1 4 70.00 44.10 0.00 9.70 20.5
1 5 70.00 44.10 0.00 9.70 30.2
1 6 63.00 44.10 0.00 6.32 36.5
1 7 72.00 37.00 0.00 9.21 45.7
1 8 81.00 44.10 0.00 15.09 60.8
1 9 78.80 51.10 0.00 16.95 77.8
1 10 72.00 45.00 0.00 10.93 88.7
1 11 71.60 43.00 0.00 10.20 98.9 OW gen. ca. 1st adult emerge
1 12 73.90 42.10 0.00 11.10 110.0
1 13 70.00 42.10 0.00 9.23 119.3
1 14 70.00 50.00 0.32 12.00 131.3
1 15 53.60 48.20 0.25 2.90 134.2
1 16 60.80 46.00 0.10 5.72 139.9
1 17 64.40 39.20 0.00 6.09 146.0 1st egg laying
1 18 63.00 41.00 0.00 5.74 151.7
1 19 59.00 42.80 0.00 4.20 155.9
1 20 57.20 48.20 0.25 4.70 160.6
1 21 57.20 41.00 1.83 3.15 163.7
1 22 64.40 37.40 0.00 5.85 169.6
1 23 69.80 44.60 0.14 9.74 179.3
1 24 54.00 39.00 0.22 1.69 181.0
1 25 52.00 32.00 0.00 0.78 181.8
1 26 57.20 28.40 0.00 2.29 184.1
1 27 55.90 28.90 0.00 1.87 185.9
1 28 62.60 28.40 0.00 4.25 190.2
1 29 72.00 30.20 0.00 8.28 198.5
1 30 75.90 39.00 0.00 11.39 209.9
1 31 75.20 41.00 0.00 11.47 221.3
2 1 77.00 42.80 0.00 12.77 234.1
2 2 75.20 42.10 0.00 11.73 245.8
2 3 75.90 44.10 0.00 12.59 258.4
2 4 77.00 42.80 0.00 12.77 271.2 50%/peak egg laying
2 5 79.00 46.40 0.00 14.85 286.0
2 6 70.00 48.20 0.00 11.10 297.1 1st egg hatch
2 7 71.60 44.60 0.00 10.62 307.8
2 8 77.00 46.40 0.00 13.86 321.6
2 9 86.00 46.00 0.00 18.19 339.8 Early/10% larvae
2 10 89.10 48.20 0.00 20.65 360.5
2 11 82.90 53.60 0.00 20.25 380.7
2 12 73.00 51.80 0.01 14.40 395.1
2 13 68.00 51.80 0.01 11.90 407.0
2 14 71.60 48.00 0.00 11.80 418.8
2 15 70.00 51.10 0.00 12.55 431.4
2 16 73.90 41.00 0.00 10.85 442.2 50%/peak egg hatch
2 17 72.00 50.00 0.00 13.00 455.2
2 18 66.20 50.00 0.05 10.10 465.3
2 19 57.90 48.00 0.10 4.95 470.3
2 20 68.00 48.00 0.01 10.00 480.3
2 21 77.00 44.10 0.00 13.13 493.4
2 22 80.60 50.00 0.00 17.30 510.7
2 23 64.90 46.00 0.00 7.73 518.4
2 24 62.60 35.10 0.00 4.81 523.2
2 25 66.90 35.60 0.00 6.71 529.9
2 26 68.00 48.20 0.00 10.10 540.0
2 27 70.00 42.10 0.00 9.23 549.3
2 28 68.00 48.20 0.03 10.10 559.4
3 1 71.10 39.20 0.00 9.17 568.5
3 2 79.00 39.20 0.00 12.90 581.4
3 3 75.90 59.00 0.00 19.45 600.9
3 4 81.00 51.10 0.00 18.05 618.9 90% egg laying
3 5 75.90 55.00 0.00 17.45 636.4
3 6 68.00 46.00 0.00 9.26 645.6
3 7 79.00 39.20 0.00 12.90 658.5 Peak larvae
3 8 87.80 46.00 0.00 19.09 677.6
3 9 89.60 50.00 0.00 21.80 699.4
3 10 91.90 53.10 0.00 24.50 723.9
3 11 89.60 57.00 0.00 25.30 749.2
3 12 88.00 55.00 0.00 23.50 772.7 End (90%) egg hatch
3 13 91.40 53.60 0.00 24.50 797.2
3 14 91.40 55.40 0.00 25.40 822.6
3 15 91.40 57.00 0.00 26.20 848.8
3 16 91.40 57.20 0.00 26.30 875.1
3 17 91.90 57.20 0.00 26.55 901.7 90% larvae/end larvae
3 18 93.90 60.10 0.00 29.00 930.7
3 19 93.90 59.00 0.00 28.45 959.1 End OW adults
3 20 90.00 64.00 0.00 29.00 988.1
3 21 91.90 62.10 0.00 29.00 1017.1 1st summer adult emerge
3 22 84.90 57.00 0.00 22.95 1040.1
3 23 68.00 51.80 0.00 11.90 1052.0
3 24 75.20 44.60 0.00 12.39 1064.4
3 25 82.00 46.40 0.00 16.34 1080.7
3 26 79.00 51.10 0.00 17.05 1097.8
3 27 80.60 51.80 0.21 18.20 1116.0
3 28 71.60 51.10 1.18 13.35 1129.3
3 29 79.00 46.40 0.00 14.85 1144.2
3 30 87.80 51.80 0.00 21.80 1166.0
3 31 70.00 51.10 0.00 12.55 1178.5
4 1 68.00 44.60 0.00 8.86 1187.4
4 2 75.90 42.10 0.00 12.07 1199.4
4 3 81.00 51.80 0.00 18.40 1217.8
4 4 80.20 50.00 0.00 17.10 1234.9 Hx Hn
4 5 86.00 60.80 0.00 25.40 1260.3
4 6 91.40 51.80 0.00 23.60 1283.9
4 7 90.00 57.20 0.00 25.60 1309.5
4 8 91.90 55.40 0.00 25.65 1335.2 50% summer adult emerge
4 9 80.60 53.60 0.00 19.10 1354.3
4 10 84.90 48.20 0.00 18.55 1372.8
4 11 91.00 51.10 0.00 23.05 1395.9
4 12 91.00 55.00 0.00 25.00 1420.9
4 13 93.20 57.20 0.00 27.20 1448.1
4 14 90.00 55.90 0.00 24.95 1473.0
4 15 88.00 55.00 0.00 23.50 1496.5
4 16 90.00 55.40 0.00 24.70 1521.2
4 17 90.00 55.40 0.00 24.70 1545.9 90% summer adult emerge
4 18 91.90 57.00 0.00 26.45 1572.4
4 19 90.00 59.00 0.00 26.50 1598.9
4 20 90.00 57.20 0.00 25.60 1624.5
4 21 91.90 53.60 0.00 24.75 1649.2
4 22 95.00 57.00 0.00 28.00 1677.2
4 23 98.60 60.80 0.00 31.70 1708.9
4 24 93.20 64.00 0.00 30.60 1739.5
4 25 82.90 66.20 0.00 26.55 1766.1
4 26 84.90 55.40 0.00 22.15 1788.2
4 27 90.00 64.40 0.00 29.20 1817.4
4 28 82.40 63.00 0.00 24.70 1842.1
4 29 73.40 53.10 0.00 15.25 1857.4
4 30 84.00 51.10 0.00 19.55 1876.9
5 1 89.60 55.00 0.00 24.30 1901.2
5 2 91.90 57.20 0.00 26.55 1927.8
5 3 96.10 62.60 0.00 31.35 1959.1
5 4 100.40 62.60 0.00 33.48 1992.6
5 5 104.00 66.00 0.00 36.44 2029.1
5 6 93.90 69.80 0.00 33.85 2062.9
5 7 81.00 62.10 0.00 23.55 2086.5
5 8 77.00 55.00 0.02 18.00 2104.5
5 9 68.00 51.80 0.11 11.90 2116.4
5 10 73.90 48.20 0.00 13.05 2129.4
5 11 87.80 53.60 0.00 22.70 2152.1
5 12 96.80 60.80 0.00 30.80 2182.9
5 13 97.00 63.00 0.00 32.00 2214.9
5 14 91.40 62.10 0.00 28.75 2243.7
5 15 87.80 62.10 0.00 26.95 2270.6
5 16 73.90 57.20 0.00 17.55 2288.2
5 17 86.00 51.80 0.00 20.90 2309.1
5 18 82.40 59.00 0.00 22.70 2331.8
5 19 82.90 57.20 0.00 22.05 2353.8
5 20 91.40 53.60 0.00 24.50 2378.3
5 21 97.00 59.00 0.00 30.00 2408.3
5 22 99.00 64.00 0.00 33.50 2441.8
5 23 100.90 66.20 0.00 35.49 2477.3
5 24 102.90 68.00 0.00 37.09 2514.4
5 25 96.80 75.20 0.00 38.00 2552.4
5 26 96.80 69.80 0.00 35.30 2587.7
5 27 96.80 60.80 0.00 30.80 2618.5
5 28 99.00 62.60 0.00 32.80 2651.3
5 29 100.90 64.00 0.00 34.39 2685.7
5 30 99.00 69.10 0.00 36.05 2721.7
5 31 99.00 75.20 0.00 39.10 2760.8
6 1 95.00 68.00 0.00 33.50 2794.3
6 2 98.60 62.60 0.00 32.60 2826.9
6 3 104.00 69.80 0.00 38.31 2865.2
6 4 104.00 71.10 0.00 38.95 2904.2
6 5 104.00 73.00 0.00 39.88 2944.1
6 6 105.80 73.40 0.00 40.54 2984.6
6 7 107.10 75.20 0.00 41.69 3026.3
6 8 102.20 77.00 0.00 41.32 3067.6
6 9 102.90 71.60 0.00 38.87 3106.5
6 10 102.20 71.10 0.00 38.40 3144.9
6 11 98.60 66.00 0.00 34.30 3179.2
6 12 96.80 69.10 0.00 34.95 3214.1
6 13 95.00 62.60 0.00 30.80 3244.9
6 14 102.90 61.00 0.00 33.62 3278.6
6 15 106.00 64.00 0.00 36.02 3314.6
6 16 105.80 68.00 0.00 37.92 3352.5
6 17 105.80 69.80 0.00 38.80 3391.3
6 18 108.00 71.10 0.00 39.93 3431.2
6 19 115.00 73.00 0.00 42.04 3473.3
6 20 116.10 87.10 0.00 48.16 3521.4
6 21 115.00 82.00 0.00 45.98 3567.4
6 22 109.40 86.00 0.00 47.05 3614.5
6 23 109.90 84.00 0.00 46.24 3660.7
6 24 113.00 82.40 0.00 45.92 3706.6
6 25 111.00 87.10 0.00 47.71 3754.3
6 26 107.60 82.40 0.00 45.17 3799.5
6 27 107.60 80.10 0.00 44.10 3843.6
6 28 106.00 81.00 0.00 44.22 3887.8
6 29 105.10 78.80 0.00 42.98 3930.8
6 30 106.00 69.80 0.00 38.85 3969.7
Forecast using: 1910 KTUS PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES Lat32.1314 Long-110.9564 DD50
cereal leaf beetle model - Fulton et al 1975 Location: 2017 KTUS Tucson Int Apt 1910 KTUS PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES | Date | DDs | Event |
| 1-11-17 | 99 | OW gen. ca. 1st adult emerge |
| 1-17-17 | 146 | 1st egg laying |
| 2-4-17 | 271 | 50%/peak egg laying |
| 2-6-17 | 297 | 1st egg hatch |
| 2-9-17 | 340 | Early/10% larvae |
| 2-16-17 | 442 | 50%/peak egg hatch |
| 3-4-17 | 619 | 90% egg laying |
| 3-7-17 | 659 | Peak larvae |
| 3-12-17 | 773 | End (90%) egg hatch |
| 3-17-17 | 902 | 90% larvae/end larvae |
| 3-19-17 | 959 | End OW adults |
| 3-21-17 | 1017 | 1st summer adult emerge |
| 4-8-17 | 1335 | 50% summer adult emerge |
| 4-17-17 | 1546 | 90% summer adult emerge |
![degree-day graph of cereal leaf beetle [grasses] Fulton et al 1975](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?1824848)
