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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: codling moth WSU [apple & pear]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Jones et al 2008
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 7 0
Model validation status: actively undergoing evaluation
Region of known use: support for use in WA only
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 175 DDs after Jan 1: Estimated first catch in Pheromone traps (biofix)
2. 395 DDs after Jan 1: 1st gen.: 1% egg hatch
3. 830 DDs after Jan 1: 1st gen:50% egg hatch, 97% moth flight
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2017 MAFH AZ_ALERT Fountain Hills Fire De AZ Lat:33.6097 Long:-111.7197 Elev:2283
mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 57.00 49.00 0.00 3.15 3.2 * START *
1 2 57.00 46.00 0.00 2.57 5.7
1 3 60.00 44.00 0.00 3.63 9.3
1 4 54.00 45.00 0.00 1.19 10.5
1 5 64.20 48.90 0.00 6.68 17.2 Vx Vn
1 6 63.50 50.00 0.00 6.75 24.0 Vx Vn
1 7 61.10 45.30 0.00 4.32 28.3 Vx Vn
1 8 70.00 51.30 0.00 10.65 38.9 Vx Vn
1 9 67.00 52.30 0.00 9.65 48.6 Vn
1 10 69.00 48.00 0.00 8.76 57.3
1 11 65.00 47.00 0.00 6.53 63.9
1 12 69.00 43.00 0.00 7.59 71.5
1 13 66.00 55.00 0.00 10.50 82.0
1 14 71.00 55.00 0.00 13.00 95.0
1 15 57.00 52.00 0.00 4.50 99.5
1 16 63.00 47.00 0.00 5.56 105.0
1 17 64.00 43.00 0.00 5.28 110.3
1 18 65.00 42.00 0.00 5.58 115.9
1 19 54.00 44.00 0.00 1.12 117.0
1 20 52.00 46.00 0.00 0.51 117.5
1 21 58.00 42.00 0.00 2.55 120.1
1 22 59.00 40.00 0.00 2.78 122.8
1 23 58.00 48.00 0.00 3.39 126.2
1 24 55.00 41.00 0.00 1.32 127.6
1 25 56.00 36.00 0.00 1.44 129.0
1 26 58.00 37.00 0.00 2.19 131.2
1 27 56.00 41.00 0.00 1.69 132.9
1 28 66.00 39.00 0.00 5.62 138.5
1 29 71.00 44.00 0.00 8.73 147.2
1 30 76.00 50.00 0.00 13.00 160.2
1 31 73.00 48.00 0.00 10.74 171.0
2 1 74.00 45.00 0.00 10.40 181.4 Estimated first catch in Pheromone traps (biofix)
2 2 71.00 47.00 0.00 9.46 190.8
2 3 71.00 49.00 0.00 10.09 200.9
2 4 74.00 43.00 0.00 9.95 210.8
2 5 76.00 49.00 0.00 12.58 223.4
2 6 66.00 52.00 0.00 9.00 232.4
2 7 71.00 52.00 0.00 11.50 243.9
2 8 77.00 49.00 0.00 13.08 257.0
2 9 82.00 55.00 0.00 18.50 275.5
2 10 83.00 55.00 0.00 19.00 294.5
2 11 78.00 56.00 0.00 17.00 311.5
2 12 74.00 58.00 0.00 16.00 327.5
2 13 72.00 58.00 0.00 15.00 342.5
2 14 72.00 54.00 0.00 13.00 355.5
2 15 72.00 53.00 0.00 12.50 368.0
2 16 74.00 49.00 0.00 11.58 379.6
2 17 74.00 51.00 0.00 12.50 392.1
2 18 67.00 49.00 0.00 8.10 400.2 1st gen.: 1% egg hatch
2 19 59.00 49.00 0.00 4.14 404.3
2 20 68.00 48.00 0.00 8.27 412.6
2 21 76.00 50.00 0.00 13.00 425.6
2 22 76.00 52.00 0.00 14.00 439.6
2 23 65.00 45.00 0.00 6.09 445.7
2 24 61.00 35.00 0.00 3.19 448.9
2 25 64.00 37.00 0.00 4.55 453.4
2 26 67.00 48.00 0.00 7.78 461.2
2 27 64.00 44.00 0.00 5.44 466.6
2 28 64.00 45.00 0.00 5.62 472.3
3 1 69.00 43.00 0.00 7.59 479.9
3 2 76.00 45.00 0.00 11.37 491.2
3 3 75.00 54.00 0.00 14.50 505.7
3 4 79.00 53.00 0.00 16.00 521.7
3 5 72.00 52.00 0.00 12.00 533.7
3 6 67.00 45.00 0.00 7.04 540.8
3 7 76.00 43.00 0.00 10.90 551.7
3 8 85.00 50.00 0.00 17.50 569.2
3 9 87.00 54.00 0.00 20.50 589.7
3 10 89.00 57.00 0.00 22.92 612.6
3 11 87.00 56.00 0.00 21.50 634.1
3 12 88.00 57.00 0.00 22.50 656.6
3 13 91.00 61.00 0.00 25.59 682.2
3 14 94.00 62.00 0.00 26.88 709.0
3 15 90.00 63.00 0.00 26.27 735.3
3 16 91.00 60.00 0.00 25.10 760.4
3 17 92.00 63.00 0.00 26.86 787.3
3 18 93.00 64.00 0.00 27.60 814.9
3 19 95.00 62.00 0.00 27.10 842.0 1st gen:50% egg hatch, 97% moth flight
3 20 95.00 67.00 0.00 29.47 871.5
3 21 91.00 59.00 0.00 24.61 896.1
3 22 83.00 58.00 0.00 20.50 916.6
3 23 67.00 52.00 0.00 9.50 926.1
3 24 77.00 45.00 0.00 11.85 937.9
3 25 80.00 52.00 0.00 16.00 953.9
3 26 80.00 50.00 0.00 15.00 968.9
3 27 80.00 53.00 0.00 16.50 985.4
3 28 77.00 52.00 0.00 14.50 999.9
3 29 84.00 56.00 0.00 20.00 1019.9
3 30 87.00 52.00 0.00 19.50 1039.4
3 31 68.00 50.00 0.00 9.00 1048.4
4 1 71.00 48.00 0.00 9.75 1058.2
4 2 80.00 47.00 0.00 13.89 1072.1
4 3 83.00 52.00 0.00 17.50 1089.6
4 4 80.50 53.20 0.00 16.85 1106.4 Hx Hn
4 5 85.00 61.00 0.00 23.00 1129.4
4 6 90.00 59.00 0.00 24.28 1153.7
4 7 88.00 56.00 0.00 22.00 1175.7
4 8 85.00 56.00 0.00 20.50 1196.2
4 9 80.00 53.00 0.00 16.50 1212.7
4 10 84.00 52.00 0.00 18.00 1230.7
4 11 88.00 54.00 0.00 21.00 1251.7
4 12 90.00 58.00 0.00 23.79 1275.5
4 13 92.00 60.00 0.00 25.39 1300.9
4 14 88.00 56.00 0.00 22.00 1322.9
4 15 87.00 55.00 0.00 21.00 1343.9
4 16 90.00 56.00 0.00 22.79 1366.7
4 17 90.00 57.00 0.00 23.29 1389.9
4 18 93.00 59.00 0.00 25.17 1415.1
4 19 89.00 61.00 0.00 24.92 1440.0
4 20 90.00 58.00 0.00 23.79 1463.8
4 21 93.00 59.00 0.00 25.17 1489.0
4 22 95.00 63.00 0.00 27.58 1516.6
4 23 97.00 63.00 0.00 27.98 1544.6
4 24 90.00 65.00 0.00 27.26 1571.8
4 25 85.00 69.00 0.00 27.00 1598.8
4 26 87.00 61.00 0.00 24.00 1622.8
4 27 87.00 65.00 0.00 26.00 1648.8
4 28 84.00 62.00 0.00 23.00 1671.8
4 29 80.00 54.00 0.00 17.00 1688.8
4 30 85.00 56.00 0.00 20.50 1709.3
5 1 92.00 57.00 0.00 23.92 1733.2
5 2 95.00 61.00 0.00 26.62 1759.9
5 3 99.00 66.00 0.00 29.70 1789.6
5 4 102.00 73.00 0.00 33.13 1822.7
5 5 106.00 73.00 0.00 33.48 1856.2
5 6 97.00 74.00 0.00 33.00 1889.2
5 7 73.00 61.00 0.00 17.00 1906.2
5 8 83.00 57.00 0.00 20.00 1926.2
5 9 74.00 54.00 0.00 14.00 1940.2
5 10 79.00 55.00 0.00 17.00 1957.2
5 11 90.00 57.00 0.00 23.29 1980.5
5 12 96.00 72.00 0.00 31.97 2012.4
5 13 97.00 66.00 0.00 29.38 2041.8
5 14 91.00 64.00 0.00 27.07 2068.9
5 15 86.00 62.00 0.00 24.00 2092.9
5 16 76.00 60.00 0.00 18.00 2110.9
5 17 83.00 56.00 0.00 19.50 2130.4
5 18 84.00 63.00 0.00 23.50 2153.9
5 19 86.00 60.00 0.00 23.00 2176.9
5 20 93.00 66.00 0.00 28.57 2205.4
5 21 100.00 70.00 0.00 31.63 2237.1
5 22 104.00 70.00 0.00 32.08 2269.1
5 23 103.00 75.00 0.00 34.03 2303.2
5 24 105.00 71.00 0.00 32.59 2335.8
5 25 99.00 75.00 0.00 33.67 2369.4
5 26 94.00 70.00 0.00 30.69 2400.1
5 27 95.00 65.00 0.00 28.53 2428.7
5 28 100.00 68.00 0.00 30.75 2459.4
5 29 104.00 68.00 0.00 31.24 2490.6
5 30 100.00 71.00 0.00 32.07 2522.7
5 31 101.00 74.00 0.00 33.45 2556.2
6 1 98.00 72.00 0.00 32.25 2588.4
6 2 102.00 70.00 0.00 31.87 2620.3
6 3 106.00 73.00 0.00 33.48 2653.8
6 4 107.00 77.00 0.00 35.05 2688.8
6 5 108.00 76.00 0.00 34.75 2723.6
6 6 106.00 80.00 0.00 36.05 2759.6
6 7 105.00 78.00 0.00 35.31 2794.9
6 8 102.00 74.00 0.00 33.54 2828.5
6 9 104.00 74.00 0.00 33.71 2862.2
6 10 101.00 73.00 0.00 33.03 2895.2
6 11 99.00 70.00 0.00 31.50 2926.7
6 12 92.00 69.00 0.00 29.78 2956.5
6 13 96.00 62.00 0.00 27.31 2983.8
6 14 103.00 66.00 0.00 30.26 3014.0
6 15 106.00 69.00 0.00 31.86 3045.9
6 16 109.00 71.00 0.00 32.92 3078.8
6 17 109.00 74.00 0.00 34.07 3112.9
6 18 112.00 74.00 0.00 34.24 3147.1
6 19 118.00 80.00 0.00 36.41 3183.5
6 20 119.00 87.00 0.00 37.93 3221.5
6 21 117.00 88.00 0.00 38.00 3259.5
6 22 111.00 86.00 0.00 37.76 3297.2
6 23 111.00 85.00 0.00 37.56 3334.8
6 24 115.00 82.00 0.00 36.89 3371.7
6 25 114.00 90.00 0.00 38.00 3409.7
6 26 111.00 84.00 0.00 37.34 3447.0
6 27 108.00 84.00 0.00 37.30 3484.3
6 28 107.00 79.00 0.00 35.76 3520.1
6 29 106.00 80.00 0.00 36.05 3556.1
6 30 108.00 77.00 0.00 35.11 3591.2
Forecast using: 1910 MAFH PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES Lat33.6097 Long-111.7197 DD50
codling moth WSU model - Jones et al 2008Location: 2017 MAFH Fountain Hills Fire 1910 MAFH PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES | Date | DDs | Event |
| 2-1-17 | 181 | Estimated first catch in Pheromone traps (biofix) |
| 2-18-17 | 400 | 1st gen.: 1% egg hatch |
| 3-19-17 | 842 | 1st gen:50% egg hatch, 97% moth flight |
![degree-day graph of codling moth WSU [apple & pear] Jones et al 2008](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?1034532)
