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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: apple maggot 1st emerge [cherry, apple]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Jones et al 89
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 44 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 113 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar
Starting/BIOFIX date: 3 1
Ending date: 7 0
Model validation status: testing
Region of known use: Utah
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 1013 DD after Mar 1 First fly emerge (NY)
2. 1456 DD after Mar 1 First fly emerge (UT)
3. 1737 DD after Mar 1 First fly emerge (W. OR)
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2017 E5848 APRSWXNET EW5848 Gulf Shores AL Lat:30.3000 Long:-87.7000 Elev:30
mn day max min precip DD44 CUMDD44 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
3 1 77.00 63.00 0.11 26.00 26.0 * START *
3 2 66.00 44.00 0.00 11.00 37.0
3 3 70.00 41.00 0.00 11.91 48.9
3 4 66.00 40.00 0.00 9.68 58.6
3 5 71.00 50.00 0.00 16.50 75.1
3 6 73.00 66.00 0.00 25.50 100.6
3 7 75.00 62.00 1.04 24.50 125.1
3 8 75.00 55.00 0.01 21.00 146.1
3 9 76.00 54.00 0.00 21.00 167.1
3 10 80.00 55.00 0.00 23.50 190.6
3 11 69.00 53.00 0.12 17.00 207.6
3 12 63.00 48.00 0.12 11.50 219.1
3 13 57.00 48.00 0.10 8.50 227.6
3 14 58.00 40.00 0.00 5.82 233.4
3 15 57.00 36.00 0.00 4.69 238.1
3 16 59.00 33.00 0.00 5.19 243.3
3 17 69.00 42.00 0.00 11.73 255.0
3 18 74.00 48.00 0.00 17.00 272.0
3 19 82.00 51.00 0.00 22.50 294.5
3 20 77.00 52.00 0.00 20.50 315.0
3 21 76.00 66.00 0.02 27.00 342.0
3 22 85.00 61.00 0.02 29.00 371.0
3 23 73.00 57.00 0.00 21.00 392.0
3 24 71.00 67.00 0.00 25.00 417.0
3 25 76.00 60.00 0.54 24.00 441.0
3 26 78.00 63.00 0.01 26.50 467.5
3 27 76.00 66.00 0.00 27.00 494.5
3 28 80.00 67.00 0.00 29.50 524.0
3 29 78.00 65.00 0.00 27.50 551.5
3 30 77.00 60.00 0.80 24.50 576.0
3 31 81.00 58.00 0.01 25.50 601.5
4 1 81.00 56.00 0.01 24.50 626.0
4 2 78.00 58.00 1.90 24.00 650.0
4 3 75.00 61.00 0.02 24.00 674.0
4 4 74.40 60.20 0.00 23.30 697.3 Hx Hn
4 5 75.10 69.00 0.06 28.05 725.4 Hx
4 6 72.00 58.70 0.00 21.35 746.7 Vn
4 7 72.00 46.00 0.00 15.00 761.7
4 8 71.10 44.00 0.00 13.55 775.3 Vx
4 9 73.00 48.00 0.00 16.50 791.8
4 10 76.00 52.00 0.01 20.00 811.8
4 11 77.00 57.00 0.01 23.00 834.8
4 12 80.00 59.00 0.12 25.50 860.3
4 13 80.00 57.00 0.01 24.50 884.8
4 14 77.00 59.00 0.01 24.00 908.8
4 15 78.00 59.00 0.01 24.50 933.3
4 16 78.00 60.00 0.01 25.00 958.3
4 17 79.00 61.00 0.01 26.00 984.3
4 18 81.00 60.00 0.01 26.50 1010.8
4 19 81.00 60.00 0.01 26.50 1037.3 First fly emerge (NY)
4 20 82.00 62.00 0.01 28.00 1065.3
4 21 82.00 63.00 0.01 28.50 1093.8
4 22 81.00 63.00 0.35 28.00 1121.8
4 23 73.00 56.00 0.35 20.50 1142.3
4 24 73.00 54.00 0.00 19.50 1161.8
4 25 78.00 52.00 0.00 21.00 1182.8
4 26 78.00 66.00 0.00 28.00 1210.8
4 27 84.00 75.00 0.00 35.50 1246.3
4 28 82.00 75.00 0.00 34.50 1280.8
4 29 80.00 74.00 0.00 33.00 1313.8
4 30 81.00 71.00 1.23 32.00 1345.8
5 1 82.00 59.00 0.01 26.50 1372.3
5 2 83.00 57.00 0.01 26.00 1398.3
5 3 82.00 59.00 1.81 26.50 1424.8
5 4 78.00 54.00 0.09 22.00 1446.8
5 5 71.00 53.00 0.00 18.00 1464.8 First fly emerge (UT)
5 6 74.00 48.00 0.00 17.00 1481.8
5 7 80.00 59.00 0.00 25.50 1507.3
5 8 83.00 59.00 0.00 27.00 1534.3
5 9 85.00 61.00 0.01 29.00 1563.3
5 10 85.00 61.00 0.01 29.00 1592.3
5 11 84.00 63.00 0.00 29.50 1621.8
5 12 81.00 66.00 1.02 29.50 1651.3
5 13 81.00 67.00 0.00 30.00 1681.3
5 14 85.00 64.00 0.00 30.50 1711.8
5 15 86.00 67.00 0.00 32.50 1744.3 First fly emerge (W. OR)
5 16 87.00 65.00 0.01 32.00 1776.3
5 17 84.00 70.00 0.01 33.00 1809.3
5 18 86.00 74.00 0.00 36.00 1845.3
5 19 83.00 74.00 0.00 34.50 1879.8
5 20 85.00 69.00 0.83 33.00 1912.8
5 21 78.00 69.00 0.02 29.50 1942.3
5 22 82.00 69.00 0.09 31.50 1973.8
5 23 82.00 71.00 0.17 32.50 2006.3
5 24 79.00 63.00 0.17 27.00 2033.3
5 25 79.00 57.00 0.00 24.00 2057.3
5 26 82.00 61.00 0.00 27.50 2084.8
5 27 87.00 73.00 0.23 36.00 2120.8
5 28 84.00 76.00 0.71 36.00 2156.8
5 29 87.00 70.00 0.28 34.50 2191.3
5 30 83.00 70.00 0.56 32.50 2223.8
5 31 80.00 70.00 0.96 31.00 2254.8
6 1 82.00 70.00 0.23 32.00 2286.8
6 2 85.00 72.00 0.00 34.50 2321.3
6 3 84.00 72.00 0.35 34.00 2355.3
6 4 84.00 72.00 0.14 34.00 2389.3
6 5 84.00 76.00 0.32 36.00 2425.3
6 6 79.00 70.00 1.05 30.50 2455.8
6 7 87.00 70.00 0.02 34.50 2490.3
6 8 86.00 65.00 0.00 31.50 2521.8
6 9 86.00 63.00 0.00 30.50 2552.3
6 10 86.00 67.00 0.00 32.50 2584.8
6 11 86.00 71.00 0.00 34.50 2619.3
6 12 82.00 74.00 1.61 34.00 2653.3
6 13 83.00 72.00 0.17 33.50 2686.8
6 14 85.00 72.00 0.11 34.50 2721.3
6 15 86.00 70.00 0.12 34.00 2755.3
6 16 90.00 70.00 0.03 36.00 2791.3
6 17 84.00 69.00 0.03 32.50 2823.8
6 18 87.00 73.00 0.00 36.00 2859.8
6 19 87.00 73.00 0.43 36.00 2895.8
6 20 75.00 71.00 4.29 29.00 2924.8
6 21 81.00 72.00 1.03 32.50 2957.3
6 22 85.00 78.00 0.42 37.50 2994.8
6 23 85.00 79.00 0.00 38.00 3032.8
6 24 88.00 79.00 0.00 39.50 3072.3
6 25 89.00 72.00 1.14 36.50 3108.8
6 26 89.00 68.00 0.00 34.50 3143.3
6 27 86.00 71.00 0.02 34.50 3177.8
6 28 87.00 73.00 0.78 36.00 3213.8
6 29 82.00 73.00 0.90 33.50 3247.3
6 30 88.00 77.00 0.08 38.50 3285.8
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 E5848 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
apple maggot 1st emerge model - Jones et al 89Location: 2017 E5848 EW5848 Gulf Shores Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 4-19-17 | 1037 | First fly emerge (NY) |
| 5-5-17 | 1465 | First fly emerge (UT) |
| 5-15-17 | 1744 | First fly emerge (W. OR) |
![degree-day graph of apple maggot 1st emerge [cherry, apple] Jones et al 89](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?2256068)
